Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP) - The Times Of Central Asia

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Kambarata-1

Experts Call for Seismic Study Ahead of Kambarata-1 Hydropower Construction

At a recent parliamentary session, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, director of the Institute of Seismology and president of Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences, warned that seismic microzonation has not been conducted at the site of the planned Kambarata-1 hydropower plant (HPP), a critical prerequisite for infrastructure projects of this magnitude. Located in western Kyrgyzstan, the Kambarata-1 HPP is a joint venture between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, with financial support from the World Bank. The facility is expected to have a capacity of 1,860 MW, with a reservoir volume of 4.5 billion cubic meters. The dam is projected to stand 256 meters tall and house four turbines capable of generating over 5.5 billion kWh annually. The total estimated cost of the project is $5-6 billion. The statement has raised alarms over the country’s most ambitious hydroelectric initiative since independence. Abdrakhmatov said scientists had twice appealed to the Ministry of Energy requesting the study, but received no response. He cautioned that the ministry is underestimating the potential seismic risks. “We are about to launch the Kambarata-1 project. It is crucial to understand that seismic microzonation must be carried out before projects of this magnitude begin. Unfortunately, this has not been done,” Abdrakhmatov said. “This raises serious concerns, because if an earthquake occurs, the dam could collapse, which in turn could destroy Kambarata-2 and other hydropower plants downstream on the Naryn River.” He further noted that the dam is planned between two mountain ridges, one significantly higher than the other. Since seismic waves interact differently with varying topographies, a powerful earthquake could cause destabilization and structural damage. Conducting a microzonation study would help mitigate such risks. The Ministry of Energy has dismissed the concerns raised by domestic seismologists, maintaining that the design of the curved gravity dam is safe. According to the ministry, AFRY Switzerland Ltd, the company preparing the project’s feasibility study, engaged international experts to assess the seismic profile of the region. The ministry stated that the expert team conducted an analysis of seismic sources, earthquake history, and regional tectonics using data from the National Institute of Seismology and the Central Asian earthquake catalog. Based on their findings, a curved gravity dam design was proposed to enhance both hydraulic performance and structural resilience. “Following comprehensive studies and numerous expert-level discussions, a seismic hazard assessment of the construction area was provided. The curved gravity dam design proposed for Kambarata-1 is expected to improve both efficiency and resilience,” the ministry reported. Nevertheless, the ministry added that it remains open to further in-depth seismic studies and may still conduct a microzonation survey as recommended by local scientists. “To date, enormous preparatory work has been carried out for Kambarata-1. We are moving toward the start of major construction. However, speculation by some of our seismology experts, who are unfamiliar with the latest reports, is deeply regrettable, it is nothing but slander and sabotage,” the ministry added in a strongly worded statement.

Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP)

Kyrgyz Energy Ministry Rejects Concerns About Seismic Safety of Future Kambarata-1 HPP

The Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy has dismissed concerns raised by leading seismologists about the seismic safety of the planned Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP), a flagship regional energy project jointly backed by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Speaking at a parliamentary committee meeting on September 9, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, President of Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences and Director of the Institute of Seismology, warned that the future dam may be vulnerable to strong earthquakes due to its proposed location. Seismic Warnings from Scientists “The dam is planned in a dangerous area, surrounded by mountains,” Abdrakhmatov said. “It may not withstand a powerful earthquake.” He stressed that preliminary seismic micro-zoning studies had not been conducted and said his institute had written twice to the Ministry of Energy requesting such research, but received no response. He warned that the destruction of Kambarata-1 in the event of a major earthquake could trigger cascading failures downstream, including at the existing Kambarata-2 HPP and other facilities. Ministry and International Experts Respond In a formal statement issued on September 10, the Ministry of Energy rejected the criticism and pointed to a recent review conducted by Swiss engineering consultancy AFRY, which is responsible for updating the feasibility study for the project. According to the ministry, AFRY commissioned a team of international experts, including renowned dam safety specialists Dr. Martin Wieland and Dr. Stefan Ehlers, to carry out a comprehensive seismic analysis of the proposed site. The assessment used geological, tectonic, and seismic data, as well as satellite imagery and historical earthquake records. The experts recommended constructing a curved gravity dam, which they said would improve both the structural stability and hydraulic performance of the plant. AFRY concluded that the dam would withstand projected seismic loads and stated that “its overall behavior in terms of load-bearing capacity is safe.” Ongoing Safety Measures The ministry also stated that further detailed safety studies are planned. These include the creation of a seismic micro-zoning map and the installation of three to five seismic monitoring stations at strategic points: along the dam’s axis, on both riverbanks, at the crest level, and upstream from the site. The Kambarata-1 HPP is expected to become the largest hydropower facility in Kyrgyzstan. With a projected capacity of 1,860 megawatts and average annual generation of 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours, the $4 billion project is seen as a critical step in alleviating chronic electricity shortages in the country. Construction Preparations Underway The Ministry of Energy has reported steady progress in preparatory works. Infrastructure projects currently underway include the construction of access roads, power transmission lines, a substation, a bridge across the Naryn River, and a shift camp for construction workers.

Official Visit

Tokayev in Bishkek: Deals, Diplomacy, and a Golden Bridge

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrived in Kyrgyzstan on 21 August for an official visit that rolls into a full day of talks in Bishkek on 22 August, including a session of the Supreme Interstate Council. The Kyrgyz capital implemented rolling traffic restrictions around motorcade routes, a sign of how tightly choreographed the program is. The visit’s centerpiece is a Tokayev–Japarov meeting in both narrow and expanded formats, alongside a packed slate of bilateral events that underscore deepening political, economic, and cultural ties between the neighbors. Tokayev’s schedule blends state protocol with public-facing diplomacy. Alongside presiding over the seventh meeting of the Supreme Interstate Council, the two leaders are set to unveil the “Golden Bridge of Friendship” monument in Bishkek’s Yntymak Park - an attempt to give symbolic form to a relationship both sides have labored to institutionalize over the past two years. The program is also set to include the inauguration of the Consulate General of Kazakhstan in Osh, the launch of a branch of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University in Kyrgyzstan’s south, the third Kyrgyz-Kazakh Youth Forum, and Days of Kazakhstan Cinema - events designed to anchor cooperation beyond chancelleries and boardrooms. This public show of diplomacy is being matched by concrete steps. The new Consulate General in Osh is intended to smooth consular services, support cross-border business, and expand cultural ties in a region where Kazakh–Kyrgyz trade and travel flows are accelerating. Central government, city, and regional officials joined Kazakh diplomats at the ribbon-cutting, underscoring the practical, day-to-day value for citizens who live and work across the southern corridor. Optics aside, the substance is in the talks. Astana and Bishkek have spent the last 18 months upgrading their legal architecture. In April 2024, the presidents signed a Treaty on Deepening and Expanding Allied Relations, moving the relationship beyond the basic language of partnership and into a framework that touches upon security, transport, energy, agriculture, and cultural cooperation. Kazakhstan’s Parliament later approved, and the president signed implementing legislation, putting the allied-relations commitments on a firmer legal footing domestically. This trip is widely viewed in both capitals as a chance to translate that framework into specific projects - some of which are already in motion. Trade and connectivity top the economic agenda. Bilateral trade hit roughly $1.7 billion in 2024, and both governments have repeatedly floated a target of $3 billion within the decade. The composition of flows is familiar: Kazakhstan ships metals, grain, fuels, and construction materials, while Kyrgyzstan supplies gold, coal, light-industry goods, and services. Reaching the next rung, however, will require more predictable border procedures, harmonized standards, and dedicated logistics capacity - areas where ministerial roadmaps are already in circulation. Energy and water cooperation is the other pillar. Kyrgyzstan’s Kambarata-1 hydropower project - envisioned as a 1,860 MW plant on the Naryn River - has become a regional test case for practical integration. Since mid-2024, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan have built a joint track with the World Bank and other partners to complete feasibility work, structure financing,...

Official Visit

Tokayev to Visit Kyrgyzstan for High-Level Talks on Aug. 21–22

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is due in Kyrgyzstan for an official visit at the invitation of President Sadyr Japarov, with the main program set in Bishkek. An announcement, carried by state media, confirmed the trip and outlined that talks would take place on deepening political and economic ties. Local authorities have introduced traffic restrictions for Aug. 21–22, indicating a two-day schedule including protocol events and bilateral meetings. The leaders are expected to review cooperation across trade, transit, and energy, and to convene the Supreme Interstate Council, the highest bilateral forum, to sign documents prepared by their foreign ministries in recent weeks. Diplomatic sources say deliverables could include measures to ease border procedures and timelines for joint infrastructure projects. A Busier, More Formalized Partnership Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have intensified engagement through 2024–2025 with frequent ministerial contacts, new investment pledges, and coordination on water-energy policy. In early August, the countries’ foreign ministers initiated a 2025–2027 cooperation plan for presidential approval at the upcoming summit. Energy is central: the governments, together with Uzbekistan and international partners, have advanced groundwork on the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant, a flagship project intended to expand clean generation and regulate seasonal flows in the Syr Darya basin. Economically, both states are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, giving their businesses a shared customs space and labor mobility framework — a recurring theme when leaders meet to resolve practical bottlenecks in border trade and logistics. Business groups on both sides are also pushing for upgrades to road and rail crossings and for the expanded use of digital customs tools. Tokayev’s program is expected to include a formal meeting with President Japarov, a session of the Supreme Interstate Council, and a signing ceremony. While detailed communiqués typically follow the talks, officials in Bishkek and Astana have signaled that this visit aims to translate recent preparatory work into specific targets on trade, transport, and energy, setting the tone for the next phase of Kazakh–Kyrgyz relations.

Water Security

Melting Mountains, Drying Futures: Central Asia Confronts Water Emergency

Central Asian countries are mobilizing against an emerging water crisis as a United Nations report highlights the vulnerability of mountain water systems to climate change. Identifying ranges like the Tien Shan and the Pamirs, the UN World Water Development Report 2025 – Mountains and Glaciers: Water Towers – warns that rapid glacier melt and erratic snowfall are threatening vital freshwater supplies worldwide. According to the report, mountains provide up to 60% of the world’s annual freshwater flows, with over two billion people depending directly on water from mountain sources. This risk is particularly acute in Central Asia: a UN drought outlook noted that rising temperatures and shrinking snowpack in the high mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are accelerating glacier retreat, posing a “long-term threat to the region’s water security.” Half of rural mountain communities in developing countries already face food insecurity, and receding glaciers could impact two-thirds of all irrigated agriculture globally – a dire scenario for Central Asia’s irrigation-dependent economies. Rivers like the Amu Darya and Syr Darya are fed by glacier runoff and support downstream agriculture, hydropower, and municipal needs in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. But climate-driven glacial retreat, inefficient irrigation, and aging infrastructure have already pushed the region toward a breaking point. [caption id="attachment_33952" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Lake Karakul in Tajikistan is expanding due to melting glaciers; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Kazakhstan Steps Up Leading the regional response, Kazakhstan has launched sweeping reforms to modernize its water infrastructure and governance. The country has committed to building 42 new reservoirs, refurbishing 14,000 kilometers of irrigation canals, and investing heavily in digital water monitoring and conservation. Established in September 2023, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation is coordinating the overhaul under an updated national Water Code. The government has also launched an integrated water portal, hydro.gov.kz, and pledged to digitize more than 3,500 kilometers of canals for precise flow tracking. In an address at the Astana International Forum, Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev framed water as a “powerful driver of cooperation, sustainable development and regional stability,” urging closer regional coordination. Kazakhstan is also leading environmental restoration efforts. As the current chair of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), it is overseeing projects to rehabilitate the North Aral Sea, including raising the Kokaral Dam to restore water levels and fisheries. In 2024 alone, local irrigation reforms in Kyzylorda saved 200 million cubic meters of water, which was redirected toward the shrinking sea. [caption id="attachment_12017" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The Kokaral Dam in Kazakhstan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] International Support and Financing Kazakhstan’s strategy has been backed by a plethora of international partners. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has financed over €255 million in water and wastewater projects in Kazakhstan, including a €96.4 million sovereign loan for a new treatment plant in Aktobe. Meanwhile, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and UNDP have launched a regional partnership to expand access to modern irrigation, digitize water flows, and establish training centers. “We must act very quickly and...

Hydropower

Dubai Hosts Talks on Major Central Asian Hydropower Project

On May 26-27, 2025, energy ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan met in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, for the second high-level meeting on the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP) project. The meeting was organized with the support of the World Bank, according to Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy. Kambarata-1 is a flagship regional initiative designed to enhance energy security and water management across Central Asia. The planned hydropower facility, with a capacity of 1,860 megawatts, will be constructed on the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan. The delegations were led by Energy Ministers Yerlan Akkenzhenov (Kazakhstan), Taalaibek Ibraev (Kyrgyzstan), and Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov (Uzbekistan). High-level representatives from the finance and water ministries of the three countries also participated. During the meeting, the ministers formally requested technical assistance from the World Bank. This includes an updated feasibility study, environmental and social impact assessments, and the development of a robust financial and commercial implementation model. The World Bank delegation featured several senior officials, including Tatiana Proskuryakova, Regional Director for Central Asia; Carolina Sánchez-Páramo, Director for Strategy and Operations in Europe and Central Asia (ECA); Charles Joseph Cormier, Regional Infrastructure Director for ECA; and Stephanie Gil, Program Leader for Energy. “We are pleased to support the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan in advancing the Kambarata-1 project,” said Proskuryakova. “It will bring major economic and social benefits to the region.” The ministers reiterated their commitment to the project, describing it as a cornerstone of regional energy integration. Participants reviewed progress since the first roundtable in Tashkent in January 2025. Discussions focused on revised cost estimates, grid modernization needs, financing strategies, and the importance of strong environmental and social safeguards. Kazakhstan’s Yerlan Akkenzhenov highlighted the collaborative nature of the initiative: “Kazakhstan fully supports this project and will continue working closely with its regional partners.” Kyrgyzstan’s Taalaibek Ibraev underscored the national significance of the HPP: “This project is the foundation of Kyrgyzstan’s energy strategy. We are proud to implement it in partnership with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.” Uzbekistan’s Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov referenced the tangible progress already made: “With joint efforts and international backing, we are confident in our ability to realize this project according to global standards.” The ministers agreed on specific next steps and timelines for project preparation and pledged to hold regular meetings to ensure steady progress. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the Kambarata-1 HPP will be located in the upper reaches of the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan. Once completed, it is expected to generate approximately 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. The estimated construction cost exceeds $4 billion.