Shadow Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Kazakhstan Deploys AI to Tackle Shadow Economy

Kazakhstan is entering a new phase of fiscal digitalization, leveraging artificial intelligence to identify and analyze illicit schemes in the shadow economy. Building on the existing Smart Data Finance platform, a system for storing and processing big data, a new digital solution will be developed to integrate information systems across government agencies. Deputy Minister of Finance Yerzhan Birzhanov announced the initiative, stating that Smart Data Finance, which has been in use for over a year, has already proven effective in detecting tax violations. The system aggregates data from external sources and implements a “Taxpayer Dossier,” enabling the creation of digital profiles for legal entities and individual entrepreneurs. The forthcoming upgrade will enhance Smart Data Finance’s capabilities by allowing it to cross-reference data from tax, customs, labor, and industry systems. This integration will help identify vulnerable sectors prone to “gray” economic practices and track the flow of illicit activity across industries. Simultaneously, the government has decided to replace separate sectoral roadmaps with a unified Comprehensive Plan to Combat the Shadow Economy. This plan, too, will be monitored using AI-powered tools. According to the Cabinet, substantial progress has already been made in digitizing high-risk sectors such as trade, construction, transport, healthcare, education, and agriculture. Special attention is being given to the trade sector, which remains one of the most susceptible to shadow operations. The ongoing implementation of several tools, including the National Catalogue of Goods, a domestic producer registry, labeling and traceability systems, electronic invoicing, digital VAT, and the digital tenge, is intended to reduce opportunities for illegal transactions. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh authorities have steadily escalated pressure on the shadow sector in recent years. Measures range from tightening controls on smartphone imports to negotiating with employers to curb the practice of paying salaries “in envelopes.”

Economy

Kazakhstan Labor Ministry Increases Pressure on Employers Paying “Gray” Salaries

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Labor and Social Protection has drafted legislation aimed at eliminating the widespread practice of paying employees off the books, known locally as “gray” salaries, Minister Svetlana Zhakupova announced this week. According to ministry estimates published earlier this summer, approximately 30% of Kazakhstan’s employed population fails to contribute to the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF), a clear indicator that they may be receiving unreported wages. Data from the Bureau of National Statistics shows that in the second quarter of 2025, 9.3 million people were employed across the country. Of these, 7.1 million were salaried employees (76.8%) and 2.2 million were self-employed (23.2%). This suggests that more than 3 million workers may be receiving wages outside the official system, avoiding both income tax and social contributions. Targeting the Shadow Economy The ministry plans to focus first on those who make no contributions at all. “We have cases where highly qualified employees officially receive the minimum wage of 85,000 KZT (about $159),” Zhakupova said. “To avoid taxes, employers declare the minimum wage on paper and pay the rest in cash.” This practice, she added, creates striking wage disparities among employees with the same qualifications and roles. “In some instances, workers in identical positions earn between 229,000 KZT ($426) and 1.2 million KZT ($2,200), depending on the employer,” Zhakupova noted. These discrepancies are particularly acute in Kazakhstan’s mining and metallurgical sector. Digital Oversight and Industry Agreements To address the issue, the ministry is negotiating industry-wide wage agreements and requiring companies to declare their staffing structures. A digital tool for this purpose is available on the enbek.kz platform. “About 20 to 25 major organizations, including several under our jurisdiction, have already submitted their staffing schedules in a pilot project,” said Zhakupova. She believes the initiative will help ensure a more equitable distribution of company profits. “We’ve seen cases where salaries have risen, yet labor productivity has not. That contradicts basic economic logic. Our digital system identifies such ‘red zones’ for inspection,” she explained. Legislative Timeline The draft law is currently under interagency review and has received support from both the government and the presidential administration. It is expected to be submitted to Kazakhstan's parliament, the Mazhilis, for consideration in the near future. In the meantime, the ministry has begun flagging suspicious labor contracts, particularly those listing highly skilled workers, such as mechanical engineers, at or near the minimum wage. More than 1.1 million people in Kazakhstan currently earn wages at or below the legal minimum. “When we see such contracts, it's clear these companies are operating in the shadow economy,” Zhakupova said during a recent government briefing. “Inspectors are now actively working with such employers.” As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the government has also decided to freeze the minimum wage in 2026, despite earlier pledges to raise it.

Shadow Economy

Kyrgyzstan Reports Decrease in Shadow Economy

Kyrgyzstan’s non-observed (shadow) economy, excluding the agricultural sector, accounted for 19.2% of GDP in 2023, marking a 1% decrease from 2022’s 20.2%, according to the latest data from the National Statistical Committee. The Committee attributes this improvement primarily to reductions in shadow activities within key sectors: wholesale and retail trade and motor vehicle repair by 0.5%, construction by 0.4%, and transportation and cargo storage by 0.2%. Historical data reveals a steady decline in the shadow economy’s share of GDP over recent years, estimated at 20.4% in 2021, 20.1% in 2020, and 22.8% in 2019. Shadow economic activities in Kyrgyzstan are concentrated in sectors such as trade, car repair, transportation, construction, processing industries, hospitality, and various services. Discrepancies persist, however, in shadow economy estimates. In January 2024, Minister of Economy and Commerce Daniyar Amangeldiev noted that international financial institutions assessed Kyrgyzstan’s shadow economy as comprising 60% to 70% of GDP. He explained this divergence by citing differences in methodologies used by the National Statistical Committee and international organizations to calculate the informal economy's size. Although the National Statistical Committee has yet to publish its shadow economy assessment for 2024, Minister Amangeldiyev recently highlighted the positive impacts of a shrinking shadow economy. He credited it, alongside growing trade volumes, with contributing to Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth last year. For context, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration estimates Kyrgyzstan’s informal economy at 25% to 72% of GDP, underscoring the challenge of accurately quantifying this sector.

Economy

Every Third Kazakhstani Works Informally or Hides Their Income

Approximately one-third of working Kazakhstanis are employed informally, lacking social guarantees, labor protections, and pensions. This is according to the research “Features of Labor Market and Employment in Kazakhstan” by Adam Research. The findings, analyzed by the Energyprom agency, shed light on the scope of informal employment in the country. The survey revealed that 36.4% of respondents acknowledged working in the shadow economy. This figure is higher among men (37.6%) than women (34.9%). Informal employment is categorized into three main types: Work without a labor contract: 16.6% Shadow entrepreneurship: 13.6% Part-time work without registration: 6.2% Young people and retirees are disproportionately represented in these informal sectors. The study, conducted via telephone survey of adults in all 17 regions of Kazakhstan, found that southern areas like the Turkestan and Almaty regions, along with Shymkent, had the highest rates of informal employment. Conversely, East Kazakhstan and Ulytau regions recorded the lowest rates. Informal workers are often individuals with secondary education working outside their specialty. Their earnings vary widely: Those without labor contracts typically earn up to 100,000 tenge ($190) per month. Shadow entrepreneurs may earn over 600,000 tenge ($1,130). Many struggle financially. Among respondents paid “in envelopes,” nearly 27% reported insufficient income for basic necessities. The Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan reported 1.2 million informally employed citizens in 2023. Of these: 682,500 worked in legal enterprises without formal registration. 473,200 were employed in the informal sector without patents or tax payments. This group constitutes 12.8% of Kazakhstan's total employed population. Labor Minister Svetlana Zhakupova identified informal employment as the second most significant labor market challenge, after job scarcity. She highlighted discrepancies between official labor remuneration fund data and pension savings. In 2023, the labor remuneration fund was valued at 38 trillion tenge, yet pension contributions accounted for only 20 trillion tenge. Additionally, labor remuneration makes up just 30% of Kazakhstan’s GDP, significantly lower than the OECD average of 50%. The largest discrepancies were observed in the trade, agriculture, and real estate sectors.

Finance

Kazakhstan Leads Central Asia in Anti-Money Laundering Efforts

The Basel Anti-Money Laundering Index (AML) has been released. It offers a comprehensive assessment of global efforts to combat money laundering. The index evaluates the risk of money laundering and financial crime across countries and regions, using 17 indicators across five domains to identify key factors that can heighten vulnerability. The indicators are updated annually and reviewed by an independent panel of experts to ensure relevance, methodology integrity, and access to current data. The Index does not measure the actual volume of money laundering activity. Instead, it focuses on the risk factors, scoring countries on a scale from 0 to 10 where 10 represents the highest risk and 0 the lowest. The Times of Central Asia examined this year’s ratings, focusing on the performance of Central Asian nations: Kazakhstan achieved a notable ranking of 111th out of 164 countries, with a score of 4.65. Uzbekistan followed, ranking 81st with a score of 5.27, while Kyrgyzstan placed 45th with 5.95 points. Tajikistan ranked 30th, scoring 6.45, and Turkmenistan recorded the region’s worst result, ranking 23rd with 6.71 points. Globally, the best results were observed in San Marino (2.96), Iceland (3.00), and Finland (3.07).

Shadow Economy

Kyrgyzstan’s President Declares Own Multi-Million Dollar Property as Part of Asset Legalization

The President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Sadyr Japarov has said that he wants top business people and wealthy citizens to repatriate their assets to Kyrgyzstan instead of storing it abroad - which is why he has decided to start with himself. Last summer, Kyrgyzstan adopted a law on legalization - or declaring assets to the government - of property. According to official statements, its main goal is to transition the property and income of individuals from the shadow economy into legal economic activity through voluntary declaration of assets. The law stands until July 1st, 2024. "Voluntary legalization of and amnesty [for] assets will allow [the nation] to bring some shadow assets into legal turnover, which, as a consequence, will contribute to an increase in legal economic activity. According to the National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, the shadow economy accounts for 21% of the republic's GDP, and according to unofficial data, the shadow economy accounts for 40% of the republic's GDP. In this regard, the voluntary legalization and amnesty of assets of individuals is part of the preparatory stage of the transition to universal declaration," reads the law's background note. Image: Japarov Facebook post The president noted that all large and medium-sized business people used to register their property in someone else's name to avoid paying taxes to the state, and he was among them because he entered into politics from business. He lamented the fact that the richest citizens still keep their billions in foreign banks. Under the law, authorities guarantee that of all tax declarations previously submitted to state agencies will not be subject to prosecution. This is to give assurance to anyone seeking amnesty that the state will honor current assessments of income and property that have been legalized. The document states that if the amount a person legalizes exceeds 100 million som ($1,100,000), the submitting citizen must pay a so-called declaration payment of one million som ($11,000) to the state. "The value of my property is about 20 million dollars. I paid one million som to the state for the purpose of legalization. This is required by law. I have no savings abroad, and if I had, I would have invested them in our banks," the president wrote. Japarov said he constructed a building in the center of the capital back in 2010, but because of political persecution by the previous authorities, he had to hide the fact the multi-story building belonged to him. Now, he has registered the building under his own name. The head of state stressed that based on the law, the authorities guarantee all citizens the safety of legalized capital: "There is no other goal. There will be no questions [put] to you." The president noted that he's the first to legalize his property, despite the fact that the law came into force more than six months ago. At the end of last year, Japarov also urged owners of markets and large retail outlets to transition their assets out of the shadow economy....