China Steps Into the Central Asian Power Vacuum
China’s footprint in Central Asia is growing rapidly, with the number of joint projects and strategic initiatives expanding across the region. Analysts attribute this shift to the waning influence of both Russia and the United States. Kazakhstan: From Agriculture to Atomic Energy In recent months, China has significantly deepened its cooperation with Kazakhstan. As The Times of Central Asia recently reported, on July 24, the Kazakh Ministry of Finance announced a pilot project with China involving unmanned freight trucks crossing the Bakhty (Kazakhstan) and Pokitu (China) border points. The initiative, known as "Smart Customs," will employ autonomous guided vehicles (AGVs) and implement a unified electronic customs declaration system recognized by both countries. Further institutional cooperation had earlier emerged on July 23, with the launch of the China-Central Asia Poverty Reduction Cooperation Center and the China-Central Asia Education Exchange and Cooperation Center in Urumqi, Xinjiang. These centers aim to deepen collaboration on poverty alleviation and education, priorities reaffirmed during the second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, where 24 bilateral agreements were signed during President Xi Jinping’s visit. Meanwhile, China is asserting itself in Kazakhstan’s energy sector. On June 14, the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) was announced as the leader of a consortium to build a new nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan. Although Russia's Rosatom is slated to construct the country's first nuclear plant, logistical and financial setbacks at its Akkuyu project in Turkey have led some experts to suggest that CNNC may ultimately be responsible for Kazakhstan’s inaugural facility. Meanwhile, as previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, transit routes through Russia are seeing multiple problems, with Kazakhstan temporarily suspending oil exports via the Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Yuzhnaya Ozerovka due to newly enforced Russian regulations. At land borders, new entry procedures for foreign citizens, including Kazakhs, have led to massive traffic jams. China’s Strategic Pivot According to sociologist Gulmira Ileuova, China's assertive role is a response to the diminishing presence of both Russia, distracted by the war in Ukraine, and the United States, which has scaled back developmental efforts. In March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order curtailing the global operations of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), leading to the suspension of several NGO and media initiatives in Central Asia. “China is rapidly filling the vacuum,” Ileuova noted in an interview with The Times of Central Asia. “Beijing is transitioning from economic engagement to ideological influence, promoting narratives of social harmony and a shared future.” Ileuova anticipates that a broad ideological campaign, comparable to the "One Belt, One Road" infrastructure initiative, may follow, amplifying China’s soft power in the region. Rather than emphasizing democratic values, Chinese cooperation projects often focus on poverty alleviation, which finds greater resonance among Central Asian populations. Xi Jinping’s Repeated Visits Signal Priority As previously stated, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan on June 16 for the Second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, during which leaders signed the Astana Declaration and a treaty on “eternal good-neighborliness.” According to political...
