Tajikistan economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Industrialization

Tajikistan Targets Industrial Growth as Share of GDP to Reach 30% by 2030

Tajikistan aims to increase industry’s share of gross domestic product to 30% by 2030 as part of its accelerated industrialization strategy, the State Committee on Investments and State Property Management said. The committee said the country has a strong raw materials base to support industrial development. According to the agency, Tajikistan has 10 of the 12 critical minerals most in demand for projects linked to the global green transition. More than 800 mineral and precious metal deposits have also been identified across the country, it said. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has also described Tajikistan as having more than 600 documented deposits of around 50 minerals, including silver, gold, lead, and zinc. The bank has said the country holds some of the largest antimony reserves in the region, though limited private investment has slowed development of the sector. Authorities say the focus is shifting beyond raw material extraction toward processing industries. Priority sectors include textiles, agricultural processing, construction materials, machine building, chemicals, and electrical equipment manufacturing. According to the committee, the strategy is designed to create investment opportunities across the full production cycle, from resource extraction to finished goods aimed at regional and international markets.

Pension

Tajikistan Pension Payments Suspended For 14,000 People Over Biometric Identification Rules

Authorities in Tajikistan have temporarily suspended pension payments to more than 14,000 people who failed to complete mandatory biometric identification procedures, according to the country’s Agency for Social Insurance and Pensions. The agency said that 14,022 pensioners did not complete the required re-registration process, resulting in the temporary suspension of transfers to their bank cards. Officials did not specify exactly when the payments were blocked. The pension re-registration campaign began in Tajikistan in the second half of November 2025 and was scheduled to conclude by the end of March this year. To complete the process, pensioners are required to appear in person at agency offices with identification documents. Verification is conducted through a Face ID system using mobile phones, while personal data and photographs are stored in a digital database. A source within the pension agency said the suspended payments affect both pensioners residing in Tajikistan and citizens currently living abroad. Authorities say pension payments will be fully restored once individuals complete the identification process, with all unpaid amounts transferred retroactively from the date payments were suspended. However, the new system has already raised concerns among lawyers and some pensioners, particularly citizens residing outside Tajikistan. In its official response, the agency stressed that personal presence remains mandatory and that representatives acting under a power of attorney cannot complete biometric registration on behalf of pension recipients. Tajik lawyer Khurshed Kurbonshoev argued that the right to social security is guaranteed under the country’s constitution and that existing legislation permits pension payments to be received through authorized representatives. According to Kurbonshoev, the state has the right to introduce additional control mechanisms, including biometric identification, but such measures should not violate constitutional rights. “If citizens living abroad are not provided with a real opportunity to complete re-registration through remote submission of biometric information via consulates and representative offices or through other alternative methods, then suspension of payments, regardless of the existence of a power of attorney, could constitute a disproportionate restriction,” the lawyer said. Kurbonshoev added that in the absence of alternative identification mechanisms, affected citizens may attempt to challenge the suspension of payments through the courts or other state bodies. The re-registration campaign is being conducted under a government protocol adopted on October 31, 2025. According to the pension agency, as of May 1, 2026, a total of 830,907 people had completed the identification process. The average pension in Tajikistan currently stands at around $56 per month. The average labor pension amounts to approximately $71 while social pensions average around $39.

Economic Growth

ADB Growth Forecast Points to Strong Expansion in Tajikistan

Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Tajikistan’s economy will maintain strong growth over the next two years, driven primarily by industrial expansion and the services sector. In its latest Asian Development Outlook (April 2026), the bank projects that gross domestic product will grow by 7.3% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027. This follows an estimated 8.4% expansion in 2025, indicating a slight moderation but continued robust performance. ADB attributes the outlook to improving industrial competitiveness and rising value-added production, which are expected to support long-term economic development and job creation. “Tajikistan’s strong growth opens up opportunities to accelerate job creation,” said Ko Sakamoto, ADB country director for Tajikistan. “By developing competitive, value-adding industries from food processing and textiles to mineral products, the country can translate growth into more and better jobs.” At the same time, inflation is projected to rise to 4.0% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. According to ADB, this increase will be driven by stronger consumer lending, remittance inflows, higher public sector wages, supply chain pressures, and adjustments to utility tariffs. The bank noted that the outlook remains subject to revision given the uncertain regional environment. Despite recent gains, ADB cautioned that Tajikistan’s economic structure remains vulnerable. While industrial output has grown, the country continues to depend heavily on a narrow range of products. Exports are dominated by raw materials and low- to mid-level processed goods, with higher value-added manufactured products accounting for less than 10% of total merchandise exports. To address these challenges, the report recommends a broader, ecosystem-based industrial policy. This would involve support for specific sectors, along with improvements in infrastructure, workforce skills, access to finance, and the overall business environment. ADB’s earlier assessments highlight mixed socioeconomic trends. While poverty has declined significantly from 30.9% in 2020 to 19.9% in 2024, inequality and structural constraints continue to pose challenges to long-term development.