Trump's Policy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Abraham Accords

Kazakh Diplomacy: Why Tokayev Aligned Kazakhstan With the Abraham Accords

On November 6, 2025, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev confirmed that Kazakhstan had formally acceded to the Abraham Accords, aligning the Central Asian state with the U.S.-brokered diplomatic framework. Launched during Trump’s first presidential term, the Abraham Accords seek to expand diplomatic normalization between Israel and Muslim-majority states. Initially signed in September 2020 by Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and separately by Israel and Bahrain, the Abraham Accords were later expanded to include Morocco and Sudan. Within the broader Abraham Accords framework, Washington continues to seek Saudi Arabia’s participation, a step viewed as diplomatically significant given the kingdom’s custodianship of two of Islam’s holiest sites. However, the process was derailed following the outbreak of the Gaza war in late 2023, triggered by a Hamas attack on Israel. Riyadh has since insisted that normalization can only proceed once there is meaningful progress toward establishing a Palestinian state. Kazakhstan, a secular state with a Muslim-majority population, has maintained diplomatic ties with Israel since April 1992. Embassies were opened in 1996, and bilateral relations have expanded steadily, including in trade, defense, and humanitarian fields. In 2016, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Kazakhstan, highlighting the strength of this relationship. These longstanding ties help explain why Kazakhstan’s accession did not mark a shift in its bilateral relationship with Israel. Because Kazakhstan established full diplomatic relations with Israel decades ago, several analysts have described the country’s accession to the Abraham Accords as largely symbolic. Uzbek political scientist Kamoliddin Rabbimov argues that the decision was a calculated gesture rather than a shift in Kazakhstan’s geopolitical orientation. “The question arises: is Kazakhstan really ready to weaken its relations with China, Turkey, and Russia in order to join the American-Israeli alliance? I don’t think so,” Rabbimov said. “President Tokayev most likely just formally supported Trump’s initiative by saying ‘yes’ without putting any real geopolitical meaning into it. Nevertheless, even such a ‘yes’ is capable of slightly upsetting the balance in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy.” Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Washington-based Gulf State Analytics, views the move as strategic positioning. “Given the Trump administration’s determination to expand the scope of the Abraham Accords, this move by Kazakhstan was a relatively easy way to win the White House’s favor.” German analysts at Kettner Edelmetalle emphasize Kazakhstan’s natural resource wealth as a key factor. “The country has significant deposits of minerals and rare earth elements, resources that are indispensable for modern technologies. By strengthening ties with Washington, Astana apparently hopes to attract more American investment in this strategically important sector.” Eldar Mamedov, non-resident fellow at the Queens Institute and a former senior advisor to the European Parliament, views the development through the lens of geopolitical balancing. “The Abraham Accords are merely a tool in Astana’s deliberate efforts to diversify its geopolitical dependence on Moscow and strengthen its strategic relations with the United States,” he writes. “Perceiving them as the beginning of a new, ideologically defined bloc misinterprets the fundamentally pragmatic and self-interested nature of Kazakhstan’s calculations.” Kazakhstan’s accession to the Abraham Accords reflects...

U.S.-Central Asia Summit

Rare Earth Diplomacy: Critical Minerals Set to Top Agenda at C5+1 Summit

The announcement of an upcoming C5+1 summit in Washington between the United States and the Central Asian republics has taken much of the regional and U.S. political establishment by surprise. A swift visit by U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan was seemingly necessary to coordinate the summit’s agenda. Notably, Kazakhstan appears prepared to play a leading role on one of the summit’s most pressing issues. The summit, scheduled for November 6 in Washington, was first revealed through media channels before being confirmed through official correspondence between Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and U.S. President Donald Trump. Uzbek media later confirmed the meeting, citing sources within the administration of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and this was followed by Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov. It is notable that shortly after Tokayev’s correspondence with Trump became public, the Kazakh president held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Officially, the two discussed Tokayev’s upcoming visit to Moscow. This was their second such call in less than two weeks, the previous taking place on October 14. There is speculation that the Washington summit may have been a key topic of discussion. During meetings in Tashkent with Gor and Landau - Uzbekistan being the first stop on their tour - Mirziyoyev reportedly discussed a broad set of topics. However, the issue of “critical materials,” particularly rare earth metals, stood out. It is increasingly clear that rare earths will be a central focus of Trump’s engagement with Central Asian leaders. [caption id="attachment_38242" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Sergio Gor and Christopher Landau at the Shymbulak ski resort in Almaty; image: Akorda[/caption] Trump has previously drawn attention for high-stakes diplomacy involving rare earth metals, including a controversial deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and later discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage. Most recently, during the first leg of his Asia tour, Trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and concluded a rare earth metals agreement, despite the challenges associated with extracting these materials, which are often found underwater. Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan appears well-positioned to take the lead in terms of rare earth elements. President Tokayev first proposed developing rare earth metal deposits in his September 2023 address, “The Economic Course of Fair Kazakhstan.” In 2024, Kazakh geologists identified 38 promising solid mineral deposits, including the Kuyrektykol site in the Karaganda region, which contains substantial reserves. Tokayev returned to the issue in January 2025, during an extended government meeting, criticizing the cabinet for delays and emphasizing Kazakhstan’s untapped potential in rare earth extraction and processing. In April, during the Central Asia-European Union summit, Tokayev met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who congratulated him on the discovery of a major deposit in Kazakhstan. The topic also featured at the Central Asia-Italy summit in May, where Tokayev proposed creating a regional research center to consolidate data on rare earth deposits across Central Asia. “The creation of joint ventures, technology transfer, and the localization...

Trump Administration

Central Asian Students Face Uncertainty at U.S. Universities Under Trump Administration Policies

The situation for students from Central Asia studying in the United States has grown increasingly precarious following a controversial move by the Trump administration to restrict foreign student admissions at Harvard University, a decision that has sparked legal and diplomatic reactions. Administrative Ban Targets Foreign Students On May 23, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen ordered the termination of Harvard University's certification for its student and exchange visitor program. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) cited Harvard’s alleged refusal to submit records on the conduct of its foreign students, requested the previous month. “Harvard can no longer accept foreign students, and existing foreign students must transfer or lose their legal status,” the DHS said in a statement. The university is currently challenging the decision in court. The administration attributes the crackdown to ideological concerns. Officials have cited a determination to confront anti-Semitic rhetoric amid campus protests related to the war between Israel and Hamas. They also oppose Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives, which the administration has condemned as “illegal and immoral discrimination.” Harvard representatives reported that 6,793 international students were enrolled in the 2024-2025 academic year, comprising 27.2% of the student body. The loss of international students, they argue, could jeopardize not only Harvard’s standing but also the broader U.S. academic landscape. Beyond Harvard, the administration has intensified scrutiny of foreign students' social media activity, suspended hundreds of millions of dollars in funding to universities, revoked thousands of student visas, and initiated deportations. In response, Harvard filed a lawsuit, and on May 30, a federal court in Boston temporarily blocked the enforcement of the ban, according to Bloomberg. Nonetheless, the outlook remains uncertain. Kazakhstan Responds with Contingency Planning According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education, seven students are currently studying at Harvard under the state-funded Bolashak program. Additional students may be enrolled privately or through other sponsorships. Minister of Science and Higher Education Sayasat Nurbek described the situation as "difficult" and stated that the ministry is awaiting the final court decision. In the event of an unfavorable outcome, Bolashak students would be offered transfer opportunities to other Ivy League institutions, all of which maintain partnerships with the scholarship program. Bolashak Program: Opportunity and Criticism Founded in 1993, the Bolashak (Future) program offers state-funded scholarships for international education in priority sectors of Kazakhstan’s economy. In return, graduates are required to work in Kazakhstan for a specified period. Despite its aims, the program has faced criticism for alleged elitism. Critics claim it disproportionately benefits children of influential families and that many graduates fail to fulfill their service obligations or remain abroad. Among its alumni is former Minister of National Economy Kuandyk Bishimbayev, who was educated in the U.S. under Bolashak and later served as chairman of the Bolashak Association. He was subsequently convicted twice, first for corruption, and later for the murder of his common-law wife, Saltanat Nukenova, in a case that attracted international attention. Nevertheless, official statistics indicate that more than 13,000 individuals have benefited from the...

USAID

Cuts to USAID Leave Central Asia Facing Development Challenges

When American President Donald Trump announced a freeze and overhaul of his country's foreign aid in early 2025, the move sparked concern across Central Asia. For more than three decades, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) had been a key contributor to development in the region, supporting education, healthcare, agriculture, and environmental protection. Support for Weaker Economies USAID’s role was particularly critical in economically vulnerable countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Its sudden withdrawal now leaves local governments scrambling to compensate with limited domestic resources. The cuts have not been uniform, but the overall impact has been profound. According to the Center for Global Development, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan lost 78 percent and 69 percent of their USAID-backed programs, respectively. In Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, nearly all aid programs were discontinued. Foreign aid to the region has often reflected shifting geopolitical dynamics. In Uzbekistan, for example, support surged from $6 million to $40 million in 2016 following President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s rise to power. Kyrgyzstan received $75 million in 2010 amid negotiations over the U.S. military base there. In contrast, aid to Turkmenistan fell to just $2.8 million by 2024. Limited Time to Adjust While Kazakhstan’s more robust economy allowed for a gradual reduction in U.S. assistance, American companies remain active in its vital oil sector. Yet the abrupt nature of the broader aid pullback has disrupted numerous projects with little warning. Health and education initiatives were halted, as were efforts to bolster trade and cross-border infrastructure, critical for Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan as they seek to deepen global economic ties. Environmental initiatives also suffered. With Central Asia especially vulnerable to climate change, USAID had funded resilience-building programs focused on water access and renewable energy. These efforts have largely ceased, raising concerns among farmers and local communities who had come to rely on them. Civil Society Under Strain Some governments in the region may quietly welcome the cuts, particularly those wary of foreign-backed NGOs. USAID frequently partnered with local civil society organizations and media outlets, entities that Central Asian authorities often view with suspicion. The loss of U.S. support has left these groups increasingly exposed to state pressure. Tajikistan offers a telling case. In 2020, USAID partnered with the Aga Khan Foundation during the COVID-19 pandemic. But two years later, following unrest in the country's Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, the government launched a crackdown on the foundation. This underscores how some aid programs, especially those linked to civil society, are perceived as threats. Although USAID did not operate programs directly, its funding empowered local partners. With that backing gone, and less pressure from Washington, several Central Asian governments have tightened their control over independent organizations. Seeking Alternatives Replacing USAID’s role will not be easy. The European Union and countries such as France and Germany have long supported development in Central Asia, but their resources are stretched, especially with increased attention and funding directed toward Ukraine. Despite EU pledges of investment via the Global Gateway initiative, support for democracy, civil society, and human rights...

USAID

Cuts to USAID Leave Central Asia Facing Development Challenges

Trump Administration

U.S. Offers $1,000 Incentive for Voluntary Self-Deportation

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has launched a new program offering financial and travel assistance to undocumented immigrants who voluntarily leave the United States. Announced on May 5, the initiative provides a $1,000 stipend and covers airfare for eligible individuals who arrange their departure through the CBP Home mobile app. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem described the program as a "historic opportunity" that is safer, more orderly, and more cost-effective than traditional deportation methods. According to DHS estimates, the average cost of arresting, detaining, and deporting an individual is approximately $17,121. The self-deportation program is projected to reduce these costs by about 70%. Participants are required to submit an "Intent to Depart" via the CBP Home app, formerly known as CBP One. Upon confirmation of their return to their home country through the app, they will receive the stipend. DHS noted that individuals who engage with the program and demonstrate progress toward departure will be deprioritized for detention and removal. The first reported participant, a Honduran national, utilized the program to return from Chicago to Honduras. Additional departures are scheduled in the coming weeks. The Embassy of Kazakhstan in the United States has advised its citizens residing illegally in the U.S. to consider this program to avoid legal consequences and potentially preserve the option for future legal entry. This initiative aligns with President Donald Trump's broader immigration policy, which emphasizes strict enforcement and cost-efficiency. Since taking office in January, the administration has deported approximately 152,000 individuals. Critics argue that the program may mislead participants regarding the possibility of future legal re-entry, as no specific pathways have been outlined. Immigration advocates caution that individuals considering this option should consult legal counsel to understand the potential implications for their immigration status.