Trump Administration - The Times Of Central Asia

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U.S. Tariffs

U.S. Imposes 12.5% Tariff on Kazakhstan Over Third-Country Import Controls

Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian economy included in a new U.S. tariff action covering 60 trading partners. An additional tariff of 12.5% has been imposed on a range of Kazakh goods, excluding products listed in the annexes to the final decision. The rate applies to goods entered for consumption in the United States from July 24, 2026. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration said about 95% of the country’s exports to the United States would remain outside the measure because of the exemptions. It also said the new tariff replaces an expired temporary 10% surcharge and will not be added to it. Kazakhstan already prohibits forced labor in domestic employment under Article 7 of its Labor Code. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) did not allege that Kazakh exporters use forced labor. Its finding concerned a separate gap: Kazakhstan lacks a customs prohibition capable of excluding foreign goods produced wholly or partly with forced labor. The investigation was launched in March under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a mechanism that allows Washington to respond to foreign practices it considers discriminatory or restrictive to U.S. commerce. In June, USTR concluded that the policies of all 60 economies under review warranted action. The final decision followed more than 1,600 written comments and testimony from over 100 witnesses. Most of the economies were divided into two rate groups, while the European Union, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland received special treatment linked to existing most-favored-nation tariffs. This was not a Kazakhstan-specific finding. USTR identified the same deficiency in 53 other economies, including Australia, Japan, Norway, Singapore, and South Korea. Together, the 60 economies under investigation accounted for 99.4% of U.S. imports. A 10% tariff was imposed on countries that had introduced at least a partial ban on imports associated with forced labor or made corresponding commitments to Washington. Kazakhstan was placed in the 12.5% category alongside China, Russia, Australia, Brazil, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and several other major U.S. trading partners. The immediate cost to Kazakhstan will depend largely on the scope of the exemptions. Washington exempted raw materials where tariffs could leave the U.S. market without sufficient domestic supply, products whose higher cost could cause wider economic disruption, and goods that the United States cannot produce in sufficient quantities or obtain elsewhere. The 12.5% rate therefore does not mean that all Kazakh exports will become more expensive in the American market. The structure of bilateral trade further limits the likely damage. Kazakhstan’s exports to the United States are concentrated in commodities, particularly oil, uranium, metals, and semi-processed materials. Many serve U.S. energy and industrial needs. The Kazakh government’s estimate that about 95% of exports remain exempt indicates that the largest trade flows should avoid the additional tariff, although the U.S. notice does not provide a Kazakhstan-specific calculation. According to U.S. figures, goods trade between the two countries reached $5 billion in 2025. U.S. imports from Kazakhstan rose by 73% to $4.1 billion, while American exports...

Middle East Crisis

Iran Says Trains Resume After Reported Strike on Railway Bridge to Turkmenistan

An alleged U.S. strike on a railway bridge on a northern Iranian line crossing into Turkmenistan highlighted concerns about Central Asian trade routes in the region. Iran, however, says it has repaired the tracks and trains are running again. The reported attack on the Aq Tekeh Khan bridge near Aqqala city in Golestan province on July 9 was part of a wave of U.S. military action against Iran after tensions over the disputed Strait of Hormuz, whose shipping lanes are key to global commerce, and the collapse of a shaky ceasefire. U.S. strikes were ongoing on Friday, while Iran has carried out drone strikes on U.S. allies in the Gulf region. There were no casualties in the strike on the bridge in Golestan, according to Iranian state-affiliated media that published photographs of what appeared to be an impact crater and twisted railway tracks. The Mehr news agency cited an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps statement that cruise missiles hit the bridge. Reconstruction began immediately and the railway was ready for traffic less than 24 hours after the attack, the chn.ir news site and other Iranian outlets reported. Washington has not publicly commented on reports of the attack on the Aq Tekeh Khan bridge, which is part of a railway line that crosses into Turkmenistan at the Iranian border city of Incheh Borun and is a key corridor for Iranian trade with Central Asia, Russia and China. An analysis by London-based Iran International said Iran, which is under pressure from economic sanctions as well as attacks on its maritime infrastructure, relies on the route for “military logistics, civilian trade, sanctions resilience and alternative transit routes.” The reported attack on the bridge is also significant for Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries, according to the analysis. “These countries have invested in diversified transit routes through Iran to reach Gulf ports and global markets while reducing dependence on Russian or Chinese-controlled corridors,” Iran International said. “If Iranian routes are viewed as vulnerable during conflict, governments and commercial operators may reassess their reliability.” East of the Incheh Borun railway line, another railway line between Iran and Turkmenistan crosses at the Iranian border town of Sarakhs. Iran has also been developing railway infrastructure at the border city of Loftabad, which lies between the Incheh Borun and Sarakhs lines. Shortly before Israel and the United States launched air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, initiating the ongoing war, top railway officials from Iran and Turkmenistan met in Sarakhs to discuss ways to strengthen their cross-border railway routes. The talks were part of Iran’s effort to build “its position as a land bridge linking Central Asia to open waters,” the Tehran Times reported.

Middle East Crisis

U.S. Strikes on Iranian Rail and Coastal Infrastructure Put Central Asia’s Southern Routes Under Pressure

U.S. strikes on Iranian rail and coastal infrastructure have put Central Asia's southern transport plans under new pressure. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have spent years building routes through Iran to reach the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and markets beyond Russia. Public statements so far do not show a confirmed halt in Central Asian freight, but bridge damage near Iran's border with Turkmenistan and strikes along Iran's southern coast have made the security picture more concrete. Reports and a video posted on July 9 showed damage to the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge, on Iran's rail link to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, after overnight U.S. strikes. Reuters said it verified the location by matching the bridge, riverbank, road, fields, and nearby town with satellite imagery, and found no earlier versions of the video online. Iran's Revolutionary Guard-linked Neynava Corps in Golestan said the area around the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge in Aq Qala County was targeted by U.S. cruise missiles early on July 9, with no casualties reported. The bridge sits on the Gorgan-Incheh Borun railway line, which reaches the Incheh Borun border crossing with Turkmenistan and links onward to Kazakhstan. Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Railways, Jabar-Ali Zakeri, said engineers had rebuilt one damaged track on the Mashhad route and returned it to service in less than 15 hours, according to Fars News Agency. He said work on a second damaged line was continuing and was expected to finish within hours. That statement concerned the Mashhad route, however, and does not confirm the status of the Gorgan-Incheh Borun line. The route sits inside a wider transport effort that Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, China, and Russia have all tried to expand. TCA has previously reported on a 2024 test container train on the China-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran route, which ran from Xi'an to Tehran. It carried 45 forty-foot containers loaded with auto parts and cut the China-Iran delivery time to 15 days. The Gorgan-Incheh Borun railroad was inaugurated in December 2014, linking Iran to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan along the eastern side of the Caspian Sea. The wider Uzen-Bereket-Gorgan route runs for more than 900 kilometers from western Kazakhstan through Turkmenistan into northern Iran. It connects Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan’s rail networks to Iran’s system and onward to the Persian Gulf and Asian markets. The U.S. military has framed the latest strikes as a response to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. U.S. Central Command said on July 8 that its forces had struck about 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran's coastline. CENTCOM said the operation was designed “to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civilian mariners in the Strait of Hormuz.” The coastal security picture also impacts Kazakhstan through Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas. On June 28, Kazakhstan and Iran signed a 27-year Build-Operate-Transfer agreement for a Kazakh transport and logistics terminal there. The Kazakh embassy in Tehran said the deal...

Middle East Crisis

Kazakhstan’s Persian Gulf Port Plan Faces New Iran Risk

Kazakhstan has moved a long-planned southern trade project from talks to contract. The move gives Astana a possible foothold on the Persian Gulf, but it comes as a second night of U.S. strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation around the Gulf states have raised the cost of using that route. On June 28, Kazakhstan and Iran signed a 27-year BOT agreement to build a Kazakh transport and logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas. The contract gives the project two years for construction and 25 years for operation, with commercial activity expected in the third year. Aman Malgazhdarov of QazExportPromotion signed for Kazakhstan, and Hossein Abbas Nejad of Hormozgan’s Ports and Maritime Organization signed for Iran. The project is designed to plug Kazakhstan into the International North-South Transport Corridor and widen export access to the Persian Gulf, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Africa. The $25 million investment covers a 15-hectare logistics center that could handle 1.5 million tons of goods a year. Mohammad Shakibi-Nasab, the head of Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization, said it would “create jobs… increase the operational capacity” of Shahid Rajaee and “boost ports along the North-South corridor.” Malgazhdarov called it the “core of a future Kazakh port” within Shahid Rajaee. That ambition now sits beside a worsening security picture. On July 8, U.S. President Donald Trump declared the interim agreement to end the Iran war “over” after attacks on three cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked about the deal, Trump said: “It’s over. I don’t want to deal with them.” The U.S. then launched a new round of strikes, and Iran fired on U.S. sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. U.S. Central Command said the attacks were meant to “further degrade” Iran’s ability to threaten navigation in the strait, with Trump warning, “If it happens again, it will get much worse!” By July 9, the U.S. military said it had struck 170 Iranian targets in 48 hours. Iran had fired at U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, and Iran’s health ministry said U.S. strikes on July 7 and 8 killed 14 people and wounded 78. The attacks hit Bandar Abbas, where Shahid Rajaee is located, and other southern coastal areas. Crude oil prices rose by 5% as the risk widened. For Kazakhstan, the timing is uncomfortable. Shahid Rajaee sits near the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the open sea. The port offers one of Central Asia’s shortest southern outlets, but the approach depends on a zone where security, insurance premiums, and naval risk can change quickly. A terminal can lower handling costs and improve control over cargo, but it cannot remove war risk at the maritime end of the corridor. The risk may not be limited to the Gulf. The Financial Times reported that a railway bridge near Aqqala in Golestan Province was hit with cruise missiles, citing Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The bridge lies on the Gorgan-Incheh Borun line, which carries passengers and cargo...

AMM 2026

U.S. Moves from Dialogue to Action on Critical Minerals in Kazakhstan

ASTANA — David L. Fogel, Assistant Secretary of Commerce and Director General of the United States and Foreign Commercial Service, told delegates at the 16th International Astana Mining & Metallurgy (AMM) Congress in Astana on June 11-12 that the United States is moving from discussion to strategic execution in Central Asia’s critical minerals sector. Fogel’s responsibilities at Commerce include leading the International Trade Administration’s Global Markets unit, which focuses on commercial diplomacy, export promotion, advocacy for U.S. companies, and foreign investment. Speaking in Astana, where the AMM Congress gathered top-level mining, metallurgy, technology, finance, and government leaders, Fogel said the United States had brought a historically large delegation to Kazakhstan, including more than 20 U.S. companies and representatives from across the U.S. government. The AMM Congress is one of the region’s major mining and metallurgy platforms. Fogel framed the visit as part of a broader U.S. strategic push to strengthen supply-chain resilience at a time of heightened global competition over minerals essential to energy, infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and emerging technologies. Critical minerals, he said, are now among the top priorities for the United States, not only in terms of sourcing, but also processing. That emphasis is consistent with the Trump administration’s wider policy focus on processed critical minerals and derivative products as issues tied to economic security, national security, and America’s industrial base. Fogel placed the visit within the Trump administration’s broader effort to give Central Asia greater strategic attention, particularly as critical minerals, connectivity, and supply-chain resilience move higher on Washington’s agenda. He said the current push reflects sustained engagement from senior U.S. officials, including Ambassador Sergio Gor, U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs, and is being carried forward in country by the U.S. team in Kazakhstan under U.S. Ambassador Julie Stufft. Fogel emphasized execution, saying talks related to the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue the day before focused on turning a shared vision for cooperation into practical outcomes. “How do we take this vision of cooperation and put it into actionable projects?” he asked. According to Fogel, the objective is to turn plans into tangible ventures that can attract capital, technology, and long-term business participation. Fogel’s point was that the United States is looking for projects that strengthen critical minerals supply chains while building strategic relationships, rather than organizing endless rounds of declarations that lead nowhere. He presented the process as a disciplined commercial and strategic effort of identifying the right opportunities, minimizing risk for companies weighing where to direct their resources, applying consistent international standards, and creating conditions in which American companies can compete. [caption id="attachment_50309" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Image: TCA[/caption] The practical implication of Fogel’s remarks was that enthusiasm for mineral resources alone is not enough to draw major long-term investment. Companies need reliable mapping, credible surveys, and consistent international standards that allow projects to be assessed and financed. In that sense, geological data and standards are not technical details, but the bridge between mineral potential and bankable projects backed up by solid in-country partners....

U.S.-Central Asia Engagement

Washington Links TRIPP and Jackson-Vanik Repeal in Push Toward Central Asia

A notable strategic shift is taking place in U.S. foreign policy, one that could have a long-term impact on the economic architecture of Eurasia. After decades in which Central Asia and the South Caucasus were viewed largely through the lens of security, counterterrorism, and competition with Russia and China, Washington is increasingly emphasizing trade, investment, transport routes, and access to critical minerals. One of the clearest signs of this shift came during a recent hearing before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where Senator Steve Daines and Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the implementation of the U.S.-backed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) framework, as well as the need to remove the outdated Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions. At first glance, these may appear to be separate issues: the peace process in the South Caucasus and Cold War-era trade legislation. In reality, however, they are closely connected. Together, they point to a broader U.S. effort to link Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Western markets through trade, transport, and investment. In recent years, Republican Senator Steve Daines of Montana has emerged as one of the most active advocates of expanding America’s presence in Central Asia. As co-chair of the Senate Central Asia Caucus and one of the leading proponents of legislative efforts to repeal Jackson-Vanik restrictions, Daines has consistently argued for stronger trade and investment ties between the United States and the countries of the region. During the hearing, Daines placed particular emphasis on the importance of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, describing it as one of the most underappreciated diplomatic efforts of recent years. According to the senator, resolving the conflict could open the door to a large-scale economic transformation of the wider region. Particularly noteworthy was his reference to a geopolitical concept associated with former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski. In Daines’ formulation, Central Asia represents the “bottle,” while Azerbaijan serves as its “cork.” Opening transport routes through the South Caucasus, he argued, would allow flows of oil, gas, critical minerals, and other resources to move toward Western markets rather than toward Russia, China, or Iran. Daines said this approach helped address some of the most difficult issues in the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement process and laid the foundation for what he called a “landmark agreement” after nearly four decades of conflict. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described TRIPP as an initiative capable of fundamentally transforming Armenia’s economic role in the region. According to Rubio, the framework not only addresses the issue of transport access, which had long been a source of disagreement between Baku and Yerevan, but also creates an opportunity for Armenia to become a major trade and logistics hub connecting Europe and Asia. Rubio described TRIPP as central to the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement framework, emphasizing that the project could generate substantial investment flows and attract U.S. companies to infrastructure and transport projects across the region. Washington’s argument is that trade, transit, investment, and infrastructure can give the political settlement a stronger economic base. Unlike many previous peace...