Trump Administration - The Times Of Central Asia

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Russia Military CSTO Ukraine NATO Trump Administration

One Military Alliance (CSTO) Monitors Woes of Another (NATO)

A “zombie” alliance, one Western analysis said. A “paper tiger,” said another. The Collective Security Treaty Organization, a regional group of post-Soviet states that includes Russia and several countries in Central Asia, has come in for some harsh criticism over the years because of perceptions that it is ineffective. Now, the CSTO, described in some circles as a smaller, Russia-dominated counterweight to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is closely monitoring a widening split in the NATO security alliance between the United States and Europe. It’s a stunning turnaround that raises questions on both sides about whether and to what extent countries would honor alliance obligations as U.S. President Donald Trump shakes up the global order. While he pushes Ukraine to make a peace deal with Russia, Europe is pledging more support for Ukraine, and deadly fighting continues after three years of war. Overnight, Russia attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure with drones and missiles, officials in Ukraine said Friday. The Collective Security Treaty Organization has appeared to struggle for cohesion and purpose at times. Its members are Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. While Belarus is loyal to Russia, Armenia has frozen its participation in the group because it felt abandoned by Russia during recent military losses to Azerbaijan. None of Russia’s partners in the CSTO have deployed troops to support its war in Ukraine. But a rise in Russia’s military and diplomatic stature, buoyed by perceptions that Trump favors rapprochement with President Vladimir Putin, could inject some momentum into the regional alliance. At the same time, the Central Asian states, at least, are likely to keep a pragmatic course, balancing international relationships and trying to avoid the perception of taking sides. In an interview with the Russian newspaper Izvestia published on Thursday, CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov was asked about reports that some European countries could send troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force. Tasmagambetov, a former Kazakh prime minister, downplayed the possibility, saying it would create “a dangerous situation on a regional scale” and that the CSTO was following the situation. “In addition, it is unlikely that the population of European countries, tired of the growing negative phenomena in the economy and social sphere, will approve of such a decision by their governments. After all, this will be an additional burden on the shoulders of society, even if these contingents are not involved in offensive operations, but will, for example, perform police or surveillance functions,” he said. “If such risks arise, the CSTO will be ready to offer various options for assistance within the framework provided for in the organization’s statutory documents and, of course, approved by all member states,” Tasmagambetov said. Russia has been blunt on the issue, saying it opposes any arrangement in which European peacekeepers are deployed in Ukraine.

Trade War Trump Administration USA Politics China

How Trump’s Trade War on China Affects Central Asia

When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on China and the European Union could have severe consequences not only for Brussels and Beijing, but also for economies around the world. Central Asia is no exception, as it could easily be caught in the crossfire. Although no country in Central Asia sees the United States as its major economic partner, Trump’s trade war with the EU and China is expected to impact all Central Asian nations in one way or another. Their strong economic ties with China and the growing EU presence in the region were once seen as a strategic advantage. Now, it seems to represent a double-edged sword. As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all Central Asian states have sought to strengthen economic relations with Beijing and Brussels. Their partnerships with China and the EU have grown through trade and investments, but Washington’s tariffs on Chinese and European goods could result in a reduction in demand for various items in Central Asia. Trump’s tariff policy could also give Beijing certain leverage over Washington in the strategically important region. According to Mark Temnycky, Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center, as a way to counter the impact of U.S. tariffs, the Chinese could increase their trade and energy relations with the countries of Central Asia. “This would further accelerate China’s relationship with Central Asia, and it could result in the regional states becoming more dependent on the Chinese for trade. Given the proximity of China to Central Asia, this may also result in the regional nations reducing their trade relations with the European Union as well as with the United States, as they favor Chinese prices,” Temnycky told The Times of Central Asia in an interview. U.S. bilateral trade in the region has never been particularly strong. The exception is Kazakhstan – the region’s largest economy – which is the only country in Central Asia whose trade with the U.S. exceeds one billion dollars. According to official statistics, in 2024 America’s total goods trade with Kazakhstan was estimated at $3.4 billion. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan combined have a lower trade volume with the United States than Kazakhstan. But all that is just a drop in the ocean compared to the $89.4 billion trade China reached with Central Asian in 2023. “Trump’s tariff policy could lead to an even greater Central Asian states’ dependency on China, potentially creating a Chinese monopoly on Central Asian trade and energy. In other words, regional countries would no longer have a diversified economy and market, thus tightening China's control over the area,” Temnycky stressed. That, however, does not necessarily mean that Beijing will, in the long term, benefit from Washington’s tariff policy. According to Tyler Schipper, an economist and Associate Professor at the University of St. Thomas, China is “arguably at one of its economically weakest points in the last several decades,” which means that any trade war with the...

Pollution Trump Administration Air Pollution

U.S. Ends Air Quality Data Sharing from Embassies

The United States has announced it will no longer share air quality data gathered from its diplomatic missions worldwide. This decision has sparked concerns among environmental groups, public health advocates, and nations that rely on this data to track pollution and safeguard public health. For over a decade, U.S. embassies and consulates have provided invaluable air quality data using state-of-the-art equipment to monitor pollutants such as PM2.5, a fine particulate matter with serious health implications at high levels. Updated hourly, this information was readily accessible online, empowering individuals and governments to make informed decisions on managing air pollution risks. The U.S. government has not provided any explanation for this decision. The Times of Central Asia has previously reported on poor air quality across the region sourcing data from U.S. embassies which saw both Tashkent and Bishkek enter the list of the ten worst cities in the world for air pollution, leading to warnings to “avoid outdoor exercise, close your windows, wear a mask outdoors, and run an air purifier.”

Armenia Azerbaijan China Russia Trump Administration United States Middle Corridor

Opinion: Washington Needs a Stronger Policy for the Middle Corridor

The inauguration of President Donald Trump marks a new phase in U.S. foreign policy with direct implications for the Middle Corridor, a key trade route linking China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus. This corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), has been gaining increasing strategic importance as global trade patterns shift and great-power competition intensifies. During Trump’s first term, U.S. engagement in the region was sporadic and lacked a comprehensive strategy. While some policy initiatives were undertaken to counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence in Eurasia, these efforts remained piecemeal. The Biden administration attempted to address this gap by allocating limited funding for infrastructure development and engaging in regional negotiations aimed at fostering greater connectivity. However, Biden’s approach ultimately fell short of a coherent, long-term policy, allowing Moscow and Beijing to consolidate their positions in the region. The significance of the Middle Corridor has been underscored by increased international investment. Beyond economic concerns, the Middle Corridor plays a critical role in Europe’s energy security. The corridor facilitates the westward flow of Caspian resources, providing an alternative to Russian energy exports. The development of the Middle Corridor offers a strategic means of achieving this goal, reinforcing the EU’s energy independence while simultaneously strengthening economic ties with the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Azerbaijan has emerged as a central player in the development of the Middle Corridor. As a crucial transit country, Baku has actively pursued infrastructure investments to bolster the corridor’s efficiency. Azerbaijan’s role is further magnified by its growing energy exports to Europe, solidifying its position as a strategic partner in regional energy security. The Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, a vital component of the corridor, has received continued investment, underscoring Azerbaijan’s commitment to enhancing trade and transit connectivity. However, Azerbaijan’s increasing importance also intersects with ongoing geopolitical complexities, particularly its relationship with Armenia. The absence of Armenian participation in the Middle Corridor remains a notable gap, one that is directly tied to the resolution of long-standing territorial disputes. The prospect of an Armenia–Azerbaijan peace treaty has gained traction in recent years, supported by Western diplomatic efforts. U.S. policymakers have recognized that sustainable peace between the two nations would not only stabilize the South Caucasus but also unlock Armenia’s potential role in the corridor. Armenia’s geopolitical realignment presents both opportunities and challenges. While Yerevan has signaled its interest in deepening ties with the West, it remains economically dependent on Russia, particularly in energy and financial sectors. Increased Armenian exports to Russia, some of which analysts suspect may involve re-exports of sanctioned goods, further complicate efforts to shift its economic orientation. Recent discussions within U.S. policy circles indicate a growing recognition of the Middle Corridor’s strategic importance. American policymakers have begun exploring ways to expand support for infrastructure development in the region, recognizing that a proactive approach could yield multiple geopolitical and economic benefits. By investing in the Middle Corridor, the U.S. has an opportunity to enhance regional stability, strengthen economic ties with key partners, and counterbalance Russian...

Russia NGOs Geopolitics United States Trump Administration

A Central Asian Perspective: Look Out for Ourselves as World Shifts

Kazakhstan must focus on its own interests at a time of uncertainty over the Trump administration’s global relations and alliances as well as pending appointments to key U.S. diplomatic posts for Central Asia, according to the head of a non-governmental group based in Almaty. The comments by Karla Jamankulova, head of the free speech group Adil Soz, reflect a wider sense of vigilance in Central Asia. The region’s governments are monitoring and engaging Washington as the new U.S. administration moves to implement major, even stunning policy shifts, including warnings of tariffs on key trading partners, disruption of the longstanding U.S.-Europe alliance and a possible rapprochement with Russia after years of hostility. It’s a critical time for Central Asian states that have generally sought to balance their relationships with big powers since independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, rather than side with any one faction at the expense of another. The war in Ukraine put that approach to the test as those countries did not express support for Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 but maintained vital trade ties with it even as the West tried to isolate Moscow with economic sanctions. President Donald Trump has significantly shifted U.S. priorities, prompting other nations to reassess their own geopolitical strategies. “Given the current uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Russia economic relations and the increasingly anti-China stance, it is now crucial to understand the contours of U.S.-Kazakhstan relations moving forward,” Jamankulova said on Facebook on Tuesday. Her NGO has received funding for projects from the U.S. Embassy in the past, though such support appears to have ended since the Trump administration announced a freeze on nearly all foreign aid and took steps to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development. Jamankulova didn’t comment on a debate within Kazakhstan about whether such foreign funding benefits civil society, or is a tool of interference by foreign governments, or both. Nor did she talk about whether there might be differing views within Kazakhstan about national interests. There are positive signs for Kazakhstan, specifically indications that the Trump administration would support bipartisan efforts to scrap the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a 50-year-old law that imposes some restrictions on trade with several countries in Central Asia. During his confirmation hearings for the post of secretary of state in January, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio described the amendment as “a relic of an era that’s passed.” As secretary of state, Rubio spoke by telephone on Feb. 21 to Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov of Uzbekistan about increasing trade and expanding the strategic partnership between the two countries, according to an Uzbek readout. The U.S. State Department made similar comments. In her Facebook post, Jamankulova said she was unaware of any similar discussions involving Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu of Kazakhstan, though acknowledged that doesn’t necessarily mean there is a shift in U.S. priorities. “The Atlantic Council has long advocated for Trump to be the first U.S. president to visit Central Asia. Kazakhstan appears to be on the radar. At the last C5+1 summit in 2023,...

Central Asian Migrants In Group Being Deported by U.S. to Costa Rica

A group of 200 migrants from Central Asia and India is scheduled to be flown from the United States to Costa Rica this week as part of the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration. Costa Rica’s presidency said in a statement that it was collaborating with the United States on the repatriation of migrants who were illegally in the U.S. and that the “first group” of 200 would be transferred from Juan Santamaria International Airport, near the capital of San José, to a temporary facility for migrants in the Costa Rican area of Corredores. The area is in the south of the country, near the border with Panama. The Costa Rican statement, which was issued on Monday, had said the U.S.-funded commercial flight was scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. However, several Costa Rican and international news reports said the flight was delayed until Thursday. The statement did not identify the nationalities of the migrants from Central Asia, though Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chavez subsequently said they were from countries including Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan and India. The operation is being supervised by the International Organization for Migration, a Geneva-based United Nations agency that will take care of the migrants while they are in transit, according to the Costa Rican government. In a similar arrangement, Uzbek citizens are among a separate group of migrants from multiple countries who were recently flown from the United States to Panama prior to repatriation to their countries of origin. Panama has come under intense pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened to seize the Panama Canal. It is difficult for the United States to repatriate migrants to some countries, leading Washington to look for third countries as a transit point. The Costa Rica flight received some attention in Uzbek media. Costa Rica’s human rights watchdog, La Defensoría de los Habitantes, said on Wednesday that it didn’t know details of the negotiation and agreement between the United States and the Costa Rican government for the repatriation of migrants, nor whether there are children, elderly people, disabled people or families in the group arriving in the Central American country. The Costan Rican government must guarantee their human rights, and provide medical checkups and adequate lodging space while they are in the country, according to the watchdog. It said Costa Rica, as a signatory to the U.N. convention against torture, must also confirm that none of the migrants will be subjected to “cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment” once they return to their countries of origin. The watchdog said it would remain vigilant, noting that it’s unclear whether the migrants will be safe from threats to their lives and freedom once forced to go back to their countries. Last month, as the Trump administration began to implement deportation plans, Kyrgyzstan warned its citizens in the United States to follow immigration law and always carry relevant documents with them. Chicago, a focus of some federal raids, has a growing Kyrgyz population.