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Economy

Most Kazakhstani Citizens Fear Decline in Living Standards Due to Tax Reform

A majority of Kazakhstanis expect a planned increase in value-added tax (VAT) to negatively impact their standard of living, triggering higher prices, rising unemployment, and increased pressure on businesses, according to a survey conducted by the DEMOSCOPE public opinion monitoring agency. The results show that 61.4% of respondents believe the VAT hike from 12% to 16% beginning January 1, 2026, will reduce their quality of life. Of those, 32.4% anticipate a significant decline, while 29% expect a slight deterioration. Meanwhile, 20.6% believe the change will have no impact, and just 9% believe it will improve their living standards. Government officials have framed the VAT increase as necessary to boost budget revenues, stabilize the economy, and finance social spending. However, respondents overwhelmingly believe the reform will primarily benefit the state (63.8%) and wealthy citizens (27.9%). In contrast, only 10.2% think businesses will benefit, while 3.3% expect gains for the middle class and just 2% for low-income citizens. Additionally, 19.2% said no one would benefit, and 2.4% believe everyone will benefit. Respondents also identified several expected negative outcomes. A majority, 65.5%, expect a rise in prices for goods and services. Another 27.3% predict a reduction in the number of small and medium-sized enterprises, 26.5% foresee rising unemployment, and 19.6% anticipate growth in the shadow economy and tax evasion. Among entrepreneurs, 70.5% view the reform negatively. The VAT hike is seen as particularly detrimental to small and medium-sized businesses: 63.6% believe it will harm the sector, 14.8% foresee no impact, and only 10.3% predict a positive outcome. Overall, 52.8% of respondents expressed a negative view of the reform, while 33.4% were neutral and just 7.8% were positive. Nevertheless, some respondents did see potential benefits: 18.2% believe the reform will increase tax revenues, and 9.4% think it will improve living standards. A further 12.6% said they expect no significant changes. The findings suggest that many Kazakhstani citizens view the tax reform as a policy that favors the government and affluent elites, while placing disproportionate pressure on businesses and vulnerable population groups. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, in early October, Finance Minister Mady Takiev stated that authorities had identified suspected underreporting of taxable income by more than 260,000 businesses across the country.

Tax Reform

Kazakhstan’s Lower House Passes Controversial New Tax Code Amid Public Backlash

On April 30, the Mazhilis, the lower house of Kazakhstan’s parliament, approved a new Tax Code by majority vote. The draft law, part of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s broader economic reforms, has triggered intense public and political debate. While proponents highlight its emphasis on modernization and fairness, critics warn of increased pressure on businesses and potential inflation. The final decision now rests with the president, following Senate review. Key Reforms and Adjustments According to Berik Beisengaliyev, head of the Mazhilis working group, the final version of the Tax Code diverges significantly from the original draft submitted in August 2024. One of the major changes concerns VAT (value-added tax). The government’s initial proposal to raise the VAT rate to 20% was scaled back to 16%. The threshold for mandatory VAT registration has been raised from 15 million to 40 million tenge. Reduced VAT rates are set for medical services and medicines, 5% from 2026 and 10% from 2027. Goods and services tied to guaranteed free medical care, compulsory health insurance, and treatment of orphan and socially significant diseases will be VAT-exempt. Additionally, the VAT exemption will extend to socially significant food items, books published domestically, and related publishing services. Agricultural producers will benefit from a higher VAT offset, increased from 70% to 80%. Other reforms include a shift from a permissive to a prohibitive activity list, with a unified 4% tax rate that regional maslikhats can adjust by ±50%. Special tax regimes for business-to-business transactions are also being expanded. Corporate income tax (CIT) has been reduced to 5% from 2026 and 10% from 2027 for social sector organizations. The social tax deduction for people with disabilities has increased to 5,000 MCI (19.6 million tenge in 2025). Meanwhile, the CIT rate for banks and the gambling industry has been raised to 25%, though a 20% rate remains on banks’ business lending income. A progressive income tax scale will be introduced: 10% on annual wages up to 8,500 MCI (33.5 million tenge or roughly $65,000), and 15% on income above that threshold. For dividends, the rate will be 5% on income up to 230,000 MCI (1 billion tenge, or $2 million), and 15% thereafter. The code also proposes higher excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco, and heated tobacco products, along with a new excise on energy drinks as part of a health initiative. Land use provisions have been amended to penalize inefficient use of agricultural land, with payment rates increasing up to 100-fold. Mineral resource usage rates will vary based on license duration and the number of plots held. Political Dissent and Criticism The Ak Zhol party opposed the code in both readings, citing disproportionate fiscal burdens on SMEs while sparing large extractive firms. The party also criticized the VAT hike as inflationary and warned about the opaque nature of the risk management system (RMS), which they say allows for discretionary actions by tax authorities. “The code is bloated with over 100 new articles, making it more difficult for entrepreneurs to navigate. This is not...

Tax Reform

Ruling Party Urges Government to Revise VAT Reform Plans

Kazakhstan's ruling Amanat party has called on the government to revise its proposed tax reforms, particularly those affecting the value-added tax (VAT). The party is pushing to double the planned threshold for mandatory VAT registration, warning that the current proposal could harm small and medium-sized businesses. Under current law, businesses must register for VAT if their annual turnover exceeds 78.6 million KZT (approximately $152,000). The government's draft reform proposes to lower this threshold to 15 million KZT (around $29,000). It also includes raising the basic VAT rate from 12% to 16%, introducing a zero rate for agricultural producers, a 10% rate for selected industries, and gradually applying VAT to the healthcare sector. The reform also proposes eliminating 128 tax exemptions worth more than 1.3 trillion KZT. A progressive personal income tax is also under discussion. With a base rate of 10%, the government suggests introducing a 15% rate for annual incomes exceeding 8,500 MRP (monthly calculation index), equivalent to over 33.5 million KZT. For 2025, the MRP in Kazakhstan is set at 3,900 KZT (about $7.50). The draft Tax Code is scheduled for a first reading in the Mazhilis, Kazakhstan’s lower house of parliament, on Wednesday, April 9. On the eve of the session, government officials presented the proposals at an expanded meeting with Amanat’s parliamentary faction, which holds 62 of the 98 Mazhilis seats. Amanat deputies voiced strong opposition to the proposed reduction in the VAT registration threshold, warning it could drive businesses into the informal economy. Instead, they urged the government to raise the threshold to at least 30 million KZT (approximately $58,000). The party also proposed exempting 19 socially important food items from VAT to ease the financial burden on citizens. These items include flour, bread, pasta, eggs, buckwheat, rice, sugar, vegetable oils, various meats (such as beef and chicken), dairy products (milk, kefir, cottage cheese), staple vegetables (potatoes, carrots, onions, cabbage), and salt. “Particular concern was expressed over proposals to apply VAT to healthcare and to tax financial services,” the party said in a statement. “Such measures would drive up prices and impose additional costs on the population, which is unacceptable under current conditions”. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the government initially considered raising the VAT rate to 20%, but President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev rejected that proposal in favor of a more moderate increase.

Tax

Kazakhstan Announces Differentiated VAT Rates

Kazakhstan’s Cabinet of Ministers has proposed a differentiated value-added tax (VAT) structure, with rates ranging from 0% to 16% and an intermediate rate of 10%. This announcement was made by Vice Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin. The proposal comes after President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev rejected an earlier plan to increase the VAT rate to 20%. “We propose the following mechanism: a general VAT rate of 16%, full exemption from VAT for agricultural producers, and an intermediate rate of 10% for certain industries. Thus, the government's proposed differentiation consists of 16%, 10%, and 0% rates,” Amrin said during a meeting with business representatives in Astana. The government plans to determine which industries will qualify for the 10% VAT rate following consultations with the business community. Amrin also noted that agricultural VAT exemptions currently apply to peasant farms (family-labor associations), while larger legal entities in the sector pay about a third of all applicable taxes due to existing tax incentives. Now, the government is ready to abolish VAT for these larger agricultural enterprises as well to enhance the competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s agricultural products. Budget Implications of the VAT Reform Kazakhstan’s current general VAT rate stands at 12%. The government expects that raising it to 16% will generate an additional 4 - 5 trillion KZT ($7.8 billion - $9.7 billion) in annual tax revenues. In late January 2025, Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin estimated that revising the VAT rate could bring in an additional 5 - 7 trillion KZT ($9.7 billion - $13.6 billion). At that time, authorities were considering a VAT increase to 20%, but late last week, President Tokayev publicly opposed such a sharp tax hike. Tokayev Calls for a Balanced Approach “It is necessary to explore different options, taking into account the specifics of various economic sectors,” Tokayev said during a meeting with representatives of Kazakhstan’s largest businesses. “I have not previously commented on this matter, as every word I say can be interpreted as a direct order due to my official status. However, I now want to make my position clear: the VAT rate should be differentiated. The rate proposed by the government was still too high,” the president stated. Tokayev emphasized the need for a balanced approach that supports businesses while also increasing budget revenues. “The state needs optimal solutions that, on the one hand, create favorable conditions and do not hinder business, and on the other hand, bring order to the tax system and ensure sustainable budget growth,” he added. Following the president’s remarks on Friday, February 7, the government revised its VAT reform plan, announcing the new differentiated rates on Monday, February 10. VAT Reform as Part of Kazakhstan’s Broader Tax Overhaul As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the draft of Kazakhstan’s new Tax Code, which includes the VAT reform provisions, also proposes a differentiated corporate income tax (CIT) rate for banks. The aim is to encourage business lending by making it more financially attractive than consumer lending or investments in government securities.

Economy

Kazakhstan Introduces Tax Incentives to Encourage Business Lending

Kazakhstan's draft Tax Code, set to take effect in 2026, proposes a differentiated corporate income tax (CIT) rate for banks, aiming to encourage business lending by making it more financially attractive than consumer lending or government securities investments. The proposed changes were announced by Akylzhan Baimagambetov, Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, during a recent briefing. He explained that Kazakhstani banks currently derive income from three main sources: Government securities, whose earnings are currently tax-exempt. Consumer lending, taxed at 20% CIT. Business lending is also taxed at 20% CIT. As banks tend to prioritize consumer lending over business loans, monetary authorities are now restructuring tax incentives to alter this trend. “The proposed approach is as follows: investments in government securities will now be subject to corporate income tax while lending to businesses will be taxed at a lower rate - 20% CIT. Meanwhile, all other income, including government securities and consumer lending, will be taxed at 25% CIT,” said Baimagambetov. Possible VAT Increase to 20% Another major tax reform under discussion is an increase in value-added tax (VAT) from the current 12% to as high as 20%. “We have not yet finalized the VAT rate, but the proposed range is 16% to 20%. Our calculations show that a higher VAT rate would increase the average burden on businesses by just 4%, but the end consumer will certainly feel the price hike. Inflation may rise by up to 4.5%, and we need to mitigate this impact,” said Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin. To counterbalance the inflationary effect, the government plans to expand targeted social assistance, adjust salaries in state institutions, and increase pensions. In addition, if VAT is raised to 20%, the government intends to reduce payroll taxes by 10% by eliminating the social tax and mandatory employer pension contributions. “If we are not permitted to reduce these expenses, we will not increase VAT significantly - it’s a matter of checks and balances. We plan to submit our VAT proposal to parliament in the second half of February,” Zhumangarin added. Lower VAT Registration Threshold and Expected Revenue Boost Another key tax reform under discussion is a reduction in the VAT registration threshold from 78.6 million tenge to 15 million tenge. The government expects this change to increase tax revenues by 5-7 trillion tenge. In 2024, Kazakhstan’s national budget collected 12.3 trillion tenge in taxes. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the new Tax Code will also introduce a luxury tax on high-value goods such as yachts and cigars.