Kazakhstan’s Warehouse Market Faces Mismatch Between Supply and Demand
Central Asia is seeking a larger role in trade between China and Europe by offering alternative shipping routes that bypass Russia. However, growing interest in transit has not been matched by balanced development of warehouse infrastructure. Some transport hubs face shortages of modern facilities, while others have vacant space. For international freight operators and retailers, this means additional costs. For investors, it raises the risk of financing warehouses that may struggle to attract tenants. These contradictions were discussed on October 15 in Almaty at the Central Asia Warehouse Summit 2026, organized by consulting firm IBC Global. The summit brought together industry representatives and investors. Research presented at the event showed a growing disconnect between warehouse construction and actual demand. Vacant Warehouses Exist, but Not Where They Are Needed According to IBC Global, the vacancy rate for modern warehouse space in Kazakhstan is about 5%. This gives tenants more options when choosing facilities and negotiating rents. However, the national figure masks significant differences between cities and types of warehouse space. Industry estimates put Astana's shortage of modern warehouse space at approximately 350,000–400,000 square meters. Separately, property consultancy Bright Rich reported that Almaty's warehouse vacancy rate had reached 13.3% in May 2026. These estimates come from different periods and surveys, and should not be treated as directly comparable. Class A warehouses are modern facilities with high ceilings, loading docks, security systems, and infrastructure designed to handle large volumes of goods. Kazakhstan's warehouse market is nevertheless expanding rapidly. According to an IBC Global ranking presented at the summit, the total area of Class A warehouses covered by its research increased by 39% over the past year to 730,000 square meters. More than half of that space, approximately 400,000 square meters, is controlled by the five largest property owners. Their facilities are concentrated mainly in Almaty and Almaty Region, Astana, and Shymkent. Developers Continue Building Despite Weaker Demand A survey of more than 100 warehouse market participants across four Central Asian countries revealed a gap between developers' plans and tenants' expectations. According to IBC Global, 81% of developers intend to launch new projects or complete facilities already under construction within the next twelve months. Yet 62% of developers surveyed identified weak tenant demand as the main obstacle to market development, while 52% cited the high cost and limited availability of financing. IBC Global's market sentiment index for Kazakhstan stood at 48.1 points in the third quarter of 2026, below the neutral threshold of 50. However, 52% of respondents expect supply and demand to move closer to equilibrium over the next year. The risks are particularly high for speculative developments launched without a tenant already under contract. Developers expect to secure customers after construction is completed, but by then business requirements and market rental rates may have changed. One alternative is the build-to-suit model, in which a facility is constructed to meet the requirements of a specific tenant. Its location, size, equipment, and operating conditions are agreed upon in advance. This reduces vacancy risk for...
