Russia Warns of Rising Security Threats in Central Asia During CSTO Talks in Bishkek

Kyrgyz Defense Minister Ruslan Mukambetov met with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov in Bishkek to discuss the future of bilateral military cooperation. The meeting concluded with the signing of a Strategic Partnership Program in the Military Field extending through 2030. Belousov's visit comes ahead of the annual meeting of the Council of Defense Ministers of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), also taking place in the Kyrgyz capital. As part of the lead-up to the event, the two ministers held direct bilateral talks. Speaking at the meeting, Belousov stated that CSTO member states are “living in conditions of global instability” and must remain vigilant. “Both within the CSTO and in our bilateral relations, we must treat the emerging threats with the utmost care. And there are more and more of them,” he said. Belousov identified radical groups operating in Afghanistan as the primary security threat in Central Asia, citing Russian intelligence estimates that place their numbers at over 15,000 fighters. He also pointed to growing instability in the Middle East, which, according to Russian officials, has led to an increase in foreign fighters entering the region. Mukambetov, for his part, expressed satisfaction with the depth of military cooperation with Russia and highlighted continued collaboration across all defense sectors. The ministers discussed both current and prospective issues related to military and military-technical cooperation. Despite Moscow’s ongoing warnings about extremist threats in the region, some experts argue that Russia may be inflating the scale of the danger. The narrative of a looming Islamic threat remains a consistent theme in Russian security rhetoric. In a potentially contradictory move, the Russian Supreme Court recently lifted its long-standing ban on the Taliban movement. Nevertheless, Russian officials continue to present information on Afghan-based terrorist threats to their CSTO allies. The Kremlin has also voiced concerns about growing Western influence in Central Asia. According to reports, Russian officials believe Western countries have gained excessive sway in the region, a development Moscow sees as a strategic challenge.

Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal Could Impact Kazakhstan’s Water Security

The construction of the Qosh-Tepa Canal in Afghanistan and its potential implications for Central Asia’s water security were central topics at the recent international conference, Water Security and Transboundary Water Use: Challenges and Solutions, held in Astana. Delegates from Turkey, Israel, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan convened to address the canal’s possible repercussions and broader issues of regional water distribution. Potential Threats to the Syr Darya Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Aslan Abdraimov, warned that the Qosh-Tepa Canal could significantly reduce the flow of the Syr Darya River, with direct consequences for the already depleted Aral Sea. While Kazakhstan does not share a border with Afghanistan, the canal's impact is expected to ripple across the region. “No sharp fluctuations in water resources are expected in the near term, but in the long term, a reduction in the Syr Darya’s flow is inevitable,” Abdraimov stated. He emphasized that this would further strain the fragile water balance in the Aral Sea basin. The Aral Sea’s degradation has been ongoing for decades, largely due to the diversion of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for agricultural use, primarily for irrigating cotton and wheat fields. These diversions have contributed heavily to the sea’s dramatic shrinkage. Azamatkhan Amirtayev, chairman of Kazakhstan’s Baytak Party, expressed concern that the Qosh-Tepa Canal could divert 25-30% of the Amu Darya’s flow. “This means that Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will receive less water. Consequently, Uzbekistan may draw more from the Syr Darya, leading to reduced water availability for Kazakhstan, potentially by 30-40%,” Amirtayev said. He urged for regional cooperation and scientifically informed policymaking to mitigate water losses. The Qosh-Tepa Canal and Its Regional Consequences The Qosh-Tepa Canal, under construction in northern Afghanistan, is designed to stretch 285 kilometers and span approximately 100 meters in width. Once operational, it is expected to irrigate over 500,000 hectares of farmland by diverting up to 10 cubic kilometers of water annually from the Amu Darya, roughly a quarter of the river’s average flow. Such a significant withdrawal could disrupt the hydrological balance across Central Asia. Reduced flows in the Syr Darya may accelerate the desiccation of the Aral Sea and exacerbate ecological degradation in Kazakhstan’s downstream regions. Experts at the conference underscored the urgency of strengthening regional water diplomacy and establishing new cooperative frameworks to ensure sustainable water usage and prevent environmental disasters. Hope for Dialogue Afghan representatives have previously signaled a willingness to engage in dialogue on water resource management. Observers suggest that joint initiatives in water management could play a key role in easing regional tensions and improving environmental outcomes. As the region faces mounting water stress due to climate change, population growth, and infrastructure development, coordinated action among Central Asian states and Afghanistan is increasingly seen as essential for long-term water security.