Water Security - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Security

Megaprojects Instead of Quotas: How Central Asia’s Water Diplomacy Is Changing

Central Asia’s water politics are moving beyond Soviet-era quotas. As glaciers in the Tien Shan retreat and climate pressure increases, river management has become a question of energy security, food production, and regional stability. The Soviet-era system of river-water allocation has reached its limits, forcing Central Asian states to look beyond traditional negotiations and toward joint ownership of strategic water infrastructure. Even as regional governments learn to cooperate more closely, a new challenge is emerging on Central Asia’s southern frontier, one that could disrupt the region’s hydrological balance. The Illusion of Control Formally, Central Asia’s water resources are governed through a network of interstate institutions. The principal mechanisms are the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) and the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). On paper, the system appears effective. Twice a year, ahead of the spring-summer irrigation season and the autumn-winter period, representatives of the region’s countries meet to approve water-withdrawal quotas from the Syr Darya and Amu Darya river basins. At the end of 2025, for example, officials meeting in Ashgabat agreed on water allocations for 2026, setting total withdrawals from the Amu Darya at nearly 55.4 billion cubic meters. This framework has helped prevent open interstate conflicts by providing a permanent forum for dialogue. However, its foundation remains the 1992 Almaty Agreement, which essentially preserved a Soviet-era quota system designed for a single centrally planned state rather than a group of independent countries with competing interests. The greatest weakness of the system is the absence of any meaningful enforcement mechanism. If one country exceeds its agreed allocation during a drought year, there are no legal or economic penalties. Disputes are instead resolved through emergency negotiations between ministries or, in some cases, direct interventions by heads of state. A system dependent on political goodwill and personal relationships is increasingly fragile in an era of climate stress. Turning Water Disputes Into Joint Investments As the quota system shows signs of strain, Central Asian countries have begun experimenting with a more pragmatic approach: shared ownership of infrastructure. The central paradox of the Syr Darya basin is that upstream and downstream countries need water at different times of the year. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which control the river’s headwaters, require releases in the winter to generate electricity and heat their cities. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, meanwhile, need that same water in summer to irrigate millions of hectares of farmland. Winter releases often flow downstream when demand is low, while shortages emerge during the peak agricultural season. The proposed solution is the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant on Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn River, a project now estimated to cost around $4.2 billion. What makes the project unusual is its ownership structure. Under a 2024 agreement, Kyrgyzstan will hold a 34% stake, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will each own 33%. By investing billions of dollars in infrastructure located outside their territory, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are effectively purchasing seats at the decision-making table. As shareholders, they gain a direct role in determining reservoir operations, helping ensure water is...

UNDP

UNDP Opinion: Central Asia – Shared Wildlife, Shared Landscapes, Shared Responsibility

As global leaders gather for the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Assembly in Samarkand, Central Asia has an opportunity to send a clear message to the world: protecting biodiversity is not only about saving species — it is about securing water, livelihoods, resilience and long-term stability for millions of people across our region. From the glaciers of the Tien Shan and Pamir mountains to the deserts, steppes and river basins downstream, Central Asia’s ecosystems are deeply interconnected across borders. Rivers flow between countries. Wildlife migrates through shared landscapes. Mountain ecosystems regulate water systems that sustain agriculture, energy production and communities far beyond the highlands themselves. Among the most powerful symbols of this shared natural heritage is the snow leopard — the silent guardian of Central Asia’s mountains. The snow leopard represents far more than a rare and iconic species. Its survival reflects the health of entire ecosystems that millions of people depend upon every day. Healthy mountain landscapes help secure freshwater resources, reduce disaster risks, sustain pastures and agriculture, preserve biodiversity, and strengthen resilience to climate change across the region. But today, these ecosystems are under growing pressure. Climate change is accelerating glacier melting and intensifying water stress. Land degradation, unsustainable grazing, habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss are placing increasing pressure on fragile mountain environments and rural livelihoods. Communities living closest to nature are often the first to feel the consequences — through declining water availability, degraded pastures, reduced agricultural productivity and increasing climate-related risks. These challenges do not stop at national borders. And neither can the solutions. Only a coordinated regional response can match the scale of the challenge. Protecting Central Asia’s mountain ecosystems requires countries to work together to conserve ecological corridors, strengthen transboundary protected areas, improve water and land governance, and invest in climate-resilient livelihoods for communities whose futures are closely tied to nature. There are already successful examples of regional agreements. For example, a highly successful transboundary nature conservation agreement in Central Asia protects the Ustyurt Plateau and the Turan Temperate Deserts. Spanning across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, this initiative has successfully safeguarded vulnerable ecosystems and migratory species like the saiga antelope and snow leopard. [caption id="attachment_50004" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Photo: Saiga calf. Kazakhstan/UNDP Kazakhstan[/caption] It is encouraging that transboundary cooperation has already taken shape across the region. Across Central Asia, governments, communities and development partners are already demonstrating that conservation and development can advance together. While each country's experience is unique, the lessons are remarkably similar: when communities benefit from healthy ecosystems, nature and people both thrive. In Kazakhstan, the snow leopard has become one of the clearest examples of how coordinated conservation efforts can help restore fragile ecosystems across borders. The species inhabits mountain systems that extend beyond national boundaries into China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Uzbekistan, making its protection inseparable from regional cooperation. Over the past decade, habitat countries have strengthened efforts to protect the species through national conservation strategies, expanded protected areas, and improved ecosystem monitoring. Supported by cooperation between the Government, UNDP, the Global...

Eco Expo

Eco Expo Opens in Samarkand as Uzbekistan Pushes Green Investment

Eco Expo Central Asia 2026 opened on June 2 at the Expo Center of Silk Road Samarkand, placing Uzbekistan’s green economy plans before officials, lenders, companies, scientists, and environmental groups already gathered in the city. The exhibition is scheduled to run through June 4 and is being held alongside the Eighth Assembly of the Global Environment Facility, one of the main global forums for environmental finance. The timing gives Uzbekistan a rare week of attention on climate, water, biodiversity, and clean technology. The GEF Assembly runs from May 30 to June 6 in Samarkand. The GEF says its Assembly is its highest governing body, made up of 186 member countries, and meets once every four years. GEF Council meetings are scheduled from May 31 to June 3, before the formal Assembly sessions later in the week. Eco Expo has a more practical focus. Its exhibition sections include protected natural areas, clean technology, green construction, transport, and energy, sustainable agriculture, green finance and green cities, ecotourism, water-saving technologies, environmental education, artificial intelligence in ecology, and the Aral Sea region. The business program includes lectures, seminars, panels, and roundtables for registered visitors. Uzbekistan’s state news agency UzA has said that approximately 10,000 participants from Uzbekistan and abroad are expected. The exhibition will include more than 68 pavilions for environmental products, plus 20 pavilions for startup projects from Central Asian countries. Organizers also plan more than 50 forums, presentations, and discussion platforms on green energy, waste recycling, water resource management, and sustainable development. The exhibition - organized by Uzbekistan’s National Committee on Ecology and Climate Change with Business Congress Management - is designed to turn local environmental plans into fundable projects. Regions and districts across Uzbekistan have prepared proposals for donors and investors, covering climate adaptation, better use of natural resources, and practical steps to make local economies more resilient. For Uzbekistan, the meetings are a chance to move from broad pledges to project lists, budgets, and partners. Farms need more efficient irrigation; cities need cleaner transport and better waste systems; protected areas need long-term funding. The expo brings those needs into one room with development banks, UN agencies, foreign governments, and companies looking for green projects. The GEF meetings bring the process closer to the expo floor. The fund says it has provided more than $26 billion in financing over three decades, and has helped mobilize another $148 billion for country-led environmental projects. In Samarkand, the 71st GEF Council meeting opened ahead of the Assembly and Eco Expo. Its agenda includes biodiversity protection, sustainable infrastructure, renewable energy, energy storage, the GEF-9 programming strategy, and support for vulnerable countries. Uzbekistan already has a working portfolio with the GEF, which includes 13 projects worth $56 million and five more projects worth more than $30 million in the pipeline. The projects cover biodiversity, snow leopard protection, restoration of ecosystems in the Aral Sea region, climate resilience, land management, and waste management. The week arrives as Uzbekistan faces rising climate stress. The World Bank has described...

Water Security

Opinion: Water Without a Guarantor – Central Asia’s Next Security Test

The Fourth High-Level International Conference on the International Decade for Action, “Water for Sustainable Development,“ taking place in Dushanbe on May 25-28, comes at a difficult moment. Central Asia's water problem is no longer only about environmental management; it is moving into the field of regional security. The conference agenda is familiar and necessary: climate, investment, innovation, transboundary cooperation, and the implementation of the Water Action Decade. The harder question is what happens outside the conference hall. Does Central Asia still have a credible way to stop water stress from becoming an interstate crisis? For decades, the region operated in a post-Soviet setting in which Moscow shaped many security calculations, even though it was never a formal water arbiter. That setting has weakened. Russia has not disappeared from Central Asia, and it still retains military, economic, and institutional leverage. But since 2022, its role as the assumed external stabilizer has become less convincing. The result is not a simple vacuum. It is a more awkward reality: a region with many outside actors, but no trusted water-security guarantor. The Old Backdrop Is Weakening Central Asia's water system was built around a Soviet-era division of functions. Upstream republics, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, controlled the mountains, reservoirs, and hydropower potential. Downstream republics, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, depended on seasonal water flows for agriculture, food security, and social stability. The Soviet system managed those tensions through central planning. After independence, cooperation became more fragile. Water, energy, borders, electricity, and agriculture were separated into national strategies. The rivers, however, remained transboundary. For many years, Russia remained the largest external power around which regional security calculations were organized. That did not make Moscow an effective water manager, but it helped shape the political environment. Today, that environment has changed. The CSTO did not prevent the Kyrgyz-Tajik border escalations of recent years. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan eventually reached a border agreement through direct negotiation rather than outside enforcement. That difference is not academic. Water disputes are rarely settled by conferences alone. They need trusted channels for mediation, compensation, and restraint when pressure builds. Central Asia has plenty of statements about cooperation. It has fewer tools for managing coercion when water becomes scarce. Three Pressure Points The region's water-security stress is already visible in three places. The first is Afghanistan's Qosh-Tepa Canal. The canal draws water from the Amu Darya, a river system critical for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Because Afghanistan was not part of the old Soviet water-allocation arrangements, the Taliban government is creating a new upstream reality outside the inherited regional framework. Estimates of the canal's downstream impact vary widely. Some analyses suggest it could divert between 15 and 30% of the Amu Darya's flow, depending on the completion timeline, irrigation efficiency, and water-management practices. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that reduced Amu Darya flows could indirectly affect Kazakhstan if Uzbekistan compensates by drawing more heavily on the Syr Darya. Carnegie has described the Qosh-Tepa as a serious test for regional water cooperation. The second pressure point...

Water Security

Dushanbe Water Talks Put Tajikistan’s Climate Diplomacy in Focus

Conference-related events began in Dushanbe on Monday, May 25, as Tajikistan hosts the Fourth High-Level International Conference on the International Decade for Action “Water for Sustainable Development,” 2018-2028. The week gives Tajikistan a fresh stage for a role it has built for years: using water, climate risk, and glacier protection as its clearest route into global diplomacy. President Emomali Rahmon gave the week an early political signal when he met three senior U.N. officials in Dushanbe: Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, U.N. Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of ESCAP; Retno Marsudi, U.N. Under-Secretary-General and Special Envoy on Water; and Tshilidzi Marwala, Rector of the United Nations University and U.N. Under-Secretary-General. Their arrival tied the conference directly to the Dushanbe Water Process, a platform Tajikistan has used to keep water on the international agenda. The Tajik presidential press service said 14 U.N. resolutions on water resources have been adopted at Tajikistan’s initiative. For a small, mountainous country with limited geopolitical weight, that record has become a useful diplomatic asset. Tajikistan can convene governments, U.N. agencies, development banks, and water experts around a topic shaped by its geography. The conference runs from May 25 to 28, with Monday set aside for forums, side events, and regional consultations. The main high-level sessions are set to take place on May 26 and 27 at the Kohi Somon Complex, followed by field visits on May 28. Asia-Plus reported that more than 2,500 participants were expected, including representatives from 31 countries and 33 international organizations and financial institutions. The agenda links Tajikistan’s national concerns to a wider U.N. timetable. The Dushanbe events are designed as a preparatory step before the 2026 United Nations Water Conference, now scheduled for December 8-10 in Abu Dhabi, and co-hosted by the United Arab Emirates and Senegal. Tajik officials are also presenting the process as a bridge towards 2028, when the Water Action Decade reaches its final year. Tajikistan has spent more than two decades building this diplomatic niche. The International Decade for Action “Water for Sustainable Development,” 2018-2028 began on World Water Day in 2018 and ends on World Water Day in 2028. The Dushanbe Water Process was then shaped as a regular follow-up platform, including for voluntary commitments made under the U.N. Water Action Agenda. That structure has given Tajikistan repeated opportunities to host, frame, and guide discussion rather than appear only as a country seeking aid. Tajikistan’s glaciers, rivers, hydropower system, and mountain communities all face pressure from climate change. The U.N. glaciers initiative has put new attention on glacier retreat, and Tajikistan has pushed glacier preservation as part of its global water agenda. In Central Asia, melting glaciers and shifting river flows affect more than one country; they shape energy supply, irrigation, disaster risk, and food security. Water also connects Tajikistan to its neighbors. The region’s major rivers cross borders, and upstream water use affects downstream farms and cities. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan hold much of the mountain headwater geography, while Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan depend heavily on reliable flows for...

Water

Turkmenistan Has World’s Highest Freshwater Withdrawal Per Capita

Turkmenistan has recorded the world’s highest annual freshwater withdrawal per capita, a ranking that points to the heavy strain placed on water resources by irrigated agriculture, particularly cotton production, according to international data based on statistics from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Bank. The country’s position at the top of the ranking is driven not by household consumption, but by the massive use of water in agriculture, particularly in the cotton sector. The ranking is therefore less a measure of individual water use than an indicator of structural dependence on irrigation in an extremely arid country. According to the data, more than 3,631 cubic meters of freshwater are withdrawn annually for every resident of Turkmenistan. The calculations include not only domestic water usage, but also volumes consumed by agriculture, industry, and municipal infrastructure. The figure reflects Turkmenistan’s dependence on large-scale irrigation systems established during the Soviet period to support cotton production. Vast amounts of water are diverted from the Amu Darya River to agricultural land in one of the world’s driest climates. Researchers note that these irrigation projects were among the major causes of the environmental catastrophe that devastated the Aral Sea. Agriculture remains the world’s largest consumer of freshwater. According to international estimates, the agricultural sector accounts for roughly 70% of global freshwater use. As a result, the highest positions in the ranking are largely occupied by countries with arid climates and extensive irrigated farming systems. The top 15 countries also include Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, and Iran. At the opposite end of the ranking are countries with the world’s lowest levels of freshwater withdrawal per capita. These include the Democratic Republic of Congo, with just seven cubic meters per person annually, as well as Equatorial Guinea and the Maldives, with 11 cubic meters each. Climate change is already increasing pressure on water resources across many regions of the world. Droughts, rising temperatures, and growing agricultural demand are making efficient water management an increasingly urgent issue, including for the countries of Central Asia. For Central Asia, the figures underline a familiar problem: water use remains shaped by Soviet-era irrigation systems, while climate change is making the region’s rivers, reservoirs, and agricultural systems more vulnerable.