Water Security - The Times Of Central Asia

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Aral Sea

Aral Sea Restoration Could Prevent 605 Million Tons of CO2 Emissions

The drying of the Aral Sea has created another environmental problem: according to a study, exposed lakebed sediments released about 748 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere between 1960 and 2022. Organic carbon remains stored in the sediments, and restoring part of the water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. This gives efforts to restore the Aral Sea region a new climate dimension. The study, conducted by an international team of researchers led by scientists from Spain’s Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), was published in Science on July 16. The findings add another consideration to restoration efforts already underway across the region, from refilling part of the sea in Kazakhstan to planting saxaul and rehabilitating degraded land in Uzbekistan. The Aral Sea’s Carbon Legacy When the Aral Sea was still a fully-fledged body of water, plants and algae absorbed carbon dioxide, while some organic matter settled on the lakebed. As the water retreated, those sediments were exposed to the air, organic matter began to decompose, and the stored carbon started returning to the atmosphere as CO2. At the same time, winds carry salt and dust from the newly formed Aralkum Desert, spreading the consequences of the sea’s disappearance far beyond its former shoreline. In 2022, researchers conducted an expedition to the dried Aral Sea bed, collecting sediment samples and measuring how much CO2 was being released. Combined with satellite data, this allowed them to estimate carbon losses as the sea retreated. According to the researchers’ calculations, exposed sediments lost about 204 million tons of carbon between 1960 and 2022, equivalent to roughly 748 million tons of CO2. New vegetation growing on the dried lakebed has offset less than 1% of those emissions. A significant amount of organic carbon remains in the sediments. The researchers estimate that restoring water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. The authors also considered the economics of such an effort. Using 2024 voluntary carbon market prices for land-use and forestry projects as a benchmark, they estimate that the avoided emissions could potentially be worth $3.6 billion to $18 billion in carbon credits. That money could theoretically become one source of funding for ecosystem restoration. Researchers estimate that about $9.7 billion in water-management improvements could increase inflows enough to restore roughly half of the area covered by the Aral Sea in 1960, while potentially generating about 323 million tons of CO2-equivalent carbon credits. Restoring the Entire Aral Sea Is No Longer the Goal Under current conditions, fully restoring the sea is widely considered unrealistic. The central issue is water. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya flow through several Central Asian countries. Significantly increasing the amount of water reaching the Aral Sea would be impossible without basin-wide agreements, irrigation modernization, and reductions in water losses. This is why restoration of the Aral Sea remains a regional issue rather than solely an Uzbek or Kazakh one. Central Asian countries coordinate part of this work...

Aral Sea

Kazakhstan’s North Aral Recovery Anchors Broader Environmental Push

After decades in which the Aral Sea became a global symbol of ecological collapse, Kazakhstan has achieved a measurable recovery in its northern basin. Built over two decades, the turnaround is now being linked to expanded restoration plans and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s broader Taza Kazakhstan, or “Clean Kazakhstan,” environmental agenda. According to the government, the North Aral’s volume rose from 18.9 billion cubic meters at the end of 2022 to 23 billion by the end of 2025. In July 2026, TCA reported that the Water Resources Ministry had put the volume at approximately 23.5 billion cubic meters. The recovery reflects work centered on the Kokaral Dam, completed in 2005, and management of the Syr Darya. The first phase raised water levels, reduced salinity, and helped restore fishing. Kazakhstan’s Water Resources Ministry and the World Bank have developed plans for a second phase of the restoration program. The proposed project calls for the reconstruction of the Kokaral Dam and aims to increase the sea’s volume to approximately 34 billion cubic meters and expand its surface area to around 3,900 square kilometers. The recovery described here is confined to the North Aral in Kazakhstan. The South Aral remains severely depleted, while further progress in the north depends on Syr Darya flows and cooperation with upstream states. An August 22 government review places the North Aral alongside waste management, reforestation, and environmental education under Taza Kazakhstan. Launched by Tokayev in April 2024 as a nationwide cleanup campaign, the initiative is increasingly being used as a framework for a broader environmental program. Waste Infrastructure Illegal dumping is the clearest area of reported progress. The number of identified dumping sites fell from approximately 8,600 in 2018 to 2,600 in 2026, according to the government. Satellite monitoring is being combined with public reporting through eGov Mobile and TazaQazBot. Public reports have been processed through the two services since 2024. Local authorities have been given responsibility for cleaning public areas, while penalties for illegal disposal have been strengthened. Because the 2018 baseline predates Taza Kazakhstan, the longer-term decline also reflects measures taken before the initiative. The share of municipal waste sorted or processed increased from 25.8% in 2024 to 30.6% in 2025, according to the government. Kazakhstan still faces a serious infrastructure deficit. At the end of 2024, only 20.4% of the country’s municipal waste landfills had the required documentation, while major sites in Astana and Zhezkazgan were at or beyond capacity. A 2023 plan called for 100 new landfills, but a December 2025 government update said only eight had been commissioned. The August 2026 review provided no newer landfill total, but said upgrades were planned for existing sites and additional waste sector projects were moving into operation. Large waste-processing and utilization facilities are also under development in Astana, Almaty, and the Zhambyl region. TCA has previously reported that headline processing rates do not show how much waste becomes reusable material. Only about 1.1% of municipal waste generated in 2024 was converted into secondary raw materials. The...

Water Security

Kazakhstan Seeds Clouds as Kyrgyzstan Questions Regional Impact

A small aircraft climbed out of Turkestan airport on July 10 with hygroscopic salt flares fixed beneath its wings. Operated by the United Arab Emirates’ National Center of Meteorology, it was searching for a cloud suitable for seeding. Pilot Ahmed Aljaberi described the aircraft as “specifically equipped with a cloud-seeding flare system.” But no suitable cloud appeared during the mission. Cloud seeding can try to draw more rain from an existing cloud, but it cannot make one from clear air. Kazakhstan launched the project in Turkestan on May 16, targeting more than 911,000 hectares of arable land in the country’s leading cotton-belt. The government puts the potential economic benefit at up to 35 billion tenge, roughly $75 million a year. The partnership gives Kazakhstan access to decades of Emirati experience in weather modification. The UAE program dates to the late 1980s, and Emirati specialists are training Kazakh meteorologists, pilots, engineers, and other staff. Kazakhstan’s government describes the Turkestan operation as the first project of its scale in the region, though weather modification in Central Asia has a longer history. Kochkunbek Bakirov, a geographer at Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences, has described Soviet-era research in the Karshi steppe, the Naryn basin, and over Issyk-Kul. Kazakhstan also trialed a different approach in Mangystau in 2021, using an ionization-based system promoted as a way to increase rainfall. Its developer claimed the equipment had begun to influence local moisture. The Mangystau system used ionization; the current program uses aircraft and hygroscopic salt flares. Before operations began, Kazhydromet analyzed data from 39 meteorological stations covering 2020 through 2024, selecting the Turkestan Region after studying atmospheric conditions and terrain. Flights only proceed when naturally formed cumulonimbus clouds with sufficient vertical development are present, with Kazhydromet monitoring satellite imagery, synoptic data, and cloud development before operations. The aircraft releases salt-based particles into suitable clouds. Kazakhstan’s Ecology Ministry lists sodium chloride, potassium chloride, and magnesium compounds among the reagents. In hygroscopic seeding, the particles encourage liquid droplets to collide and coalesce, which can improve precipitation efficiency in a suitable cloud. The cloud and its moisture must already exist. By July 13, crews had completed eleven operational flights, mainly over the Otyrar and Sozak districts. Officials were still analyzing the results of each operation; the number of flights does not show how much extra rain the project has produced. Kazakhstan’s launch materials cite a possible 10 to 20% increase in precipitation under favorable conditions. Results elsewhere vary widely. A 2024 review by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found estimates of 0 to 20% additional precipitation in the studies it examined. The GAO also found that effectiveness remains difficult to evaluate and that suitable clouds must be present. The evidence is much stronger for some cloud-seeding methods than for others. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the strongest recent causal evidence comes from wintertime glaciogenic seeding of orographic clouds, while Kazakhstan is using hygroscopic salts in convective clouds. Their large natural variability creates a weak signal-to-noise problem, making the added...

Syr Darya River

Central Asian States Plan Automated Water Monitoring on the Syr Darya

Central Asian countries have agreed to prepare a plan for automated water monitoring on the Syr Darya, one of the region’s main transboundary rivers. The system is intended to provide the countries with more accurate data on water volumes and distribution across the basin, where irrigated agriculture in several countries depends on river flows. The cost of weak coordination across Central Asia is already measured in billions: the World Bank estimates the region’s annual economic losses at more than $4.5 billion. The agreement was reached on August 7 in Turkistan, Kazakhstan. A working group to prepare the plan is expected to be established by the end of September. The decision was made at a meeting of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination, a regional mechanism for coordinating the use of shared water resources. The Syr Darya is formed in the Ferghana Valley by the confluence of the Naryn and Kara Darya rivers, flows through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan, and ends in the North Aral Sea. The Naryn originates in Kyrgyzstan, meaning that management of the basin involves four countries. The Syr Darya supplies major agricultural areas, while a cascade of reservoirs and hydropower plants links the distribution of river flows with electricity generation. The countries’ interests have not always coincided. In the upper reaches of the basin, water is used for hydropower generation, while farther downstream demand peaks during the summer irrigation season. Accurate monitoring and timely data exchange help countries plan water withdrawals and reservoir operations during months with the highest demand. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are already developing part of the future system. The two countries are automating ten hydrological monitoring stations on the Syr Darya, five on each side of the border. Sensors are expected to record water flow and transmit the data online. At the meeting in Turkistan, the two sides agreed to accelerate efforts to secure grant financing and consider expanding the system to other parts of the basin. Kazakhstan already has experience with automated monitoring. On parts of its irrigation network, sensors remotely transmit data on water levels and pressure. Over the past decade, more than 800 kilometers of lined canals have also been rehabilitated in four regions, while irrigation system upgrades have covered more than 100,000 hectares of farmland. Uzbekistan is also seeking to reduce irrigation losses. Agriculture accounts for about 90% of the country’s water consumption. One project provides for the reconstruction of 259 kilometers of major canals and the installation of automated water-flow monitoring systems. The World Bank estimates the expected water savings at around 540 million cubic meters a year. The current season on the Kazakh section of the Syr Darya has so far been favorable. Since April 1, around three billion cubic meters of water have flowed into the Shardara Reservoir in southern Kazakhstan. This volume is higher than both last year’s figure and the long-term average. The region received additional funding for water projects in July. The World Bank allocated a $20 million grant to improve the management of...

World Bank

World Bank Approves $20 Million Project to Boost Cross-Border Water Cooperation in Central Asia

The World Bank has announced a $20 million grant to strengthen transboundary water cooperation in Central Asia. The project is intended to improve management of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins as climate change, ageing infrastructure, and rising demand increase pressure on shared water resources. The funding, approved by the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors, will support the Central Asia Water Efficiency Cooperation Project (CAWEC). It will be implemented by the Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (EC IFAS). EC IFAS’s current procurement notice identifies Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as the participating states. According to the World Bank, limited cooperation over shared water and energy resources costs the region more than $4.5 billion a year. The bank says fragmented reservoir operations, weak data sharing, and ageing infrastructure prevent countries from capturing gains that better regional coordination could provide. The project will strengthen regional institutions, modernize water accounting and information systems, and improve data sharing. By 2031, EC IFAS is expected to prepare feasibility studies, technical documents, and environmental assessments for up to six transboundary water infrastructure projects involving at least two countries. The $20 million grant will not finance the construction of those projects. The preparatory work is intended to help governments attract further investment for irrigation modernization, water conservation and storage, and coordinated management of shared rivers. It will also support digital systems and equipment for the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Up to 100 staff members from regional water organizations will receive training. The World Bank estimates that around 40 million people will benefit directly or indirectly from improved regional water management. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea was established in 1993 by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to coordinate responses to the environmental and economic consequences of the Aral Sea disaster. The project concerns the Aral Sea basin’s two principal river systems. The Amu Darya is formed by headwaters rising mainly in the Pamirs and Hindu Kush and flows through or along Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The Syr Darya is fed by Tien Shan headwaters and crosses Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. Both rivers historically fed the Aral Sea. The grant arrives amid severe regional water stress. Central Asian governments agreed 2026 allocations from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya in November 2025, but low reservoir levels and reduced inflows continue to threaten irrigation and energy production. Kazakhstan is pursuing a parallel effort to restore the North Aral Sea, the section of the former inland sea fed by the Syr Darya. In a ministry statement, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov said an additional 1.2 billion cubic meters of water should be directed to the North Aral by the end of 2026. According to the ministry, 1.4 billion cubic meters have been delivered since October 1, 2025. The North Aral now contains 23.5 billion cubic meters of water, while salinity has fallen by about 10% from a year earlier. Fishermen caught 4,200 metric...

Groundwater Management

Kazakhstan Hydrogeologists Complete Six-Month USGS Groundwater Training

Kazakhstani hydrogeologists have completed a six-month online training program led by experts from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The Department of Groundwater at Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation organized the seminars for specialists at Kazhydrogeology, the country’s National Hydrogeological Service. Staff from its branches also took part. The training covered current approaches to groundwater monitoring and assessment. Participants also studied groundwater modeling and water resource management, drawing on international practices in hydrogeology. The USGS awarded certificates to 20 participants from Kazhydrogeology and its branches. Employees from the ministry’s Department of Groundwater and the Department of Strategic Development received certificates of appreciation. Bolat Bekniyaz, chairman of Kazhydrogeology’s management board, thanked the USGS for supporting the professional development of Kazakhstani specialists in groundwater research and management. He said the ministry would continue working with international partners through exchanges of professional experience and joint training. The seminars were held under ongoing cooperation between the ministry and the USGS. In May, Kazakhstani specialists attended training in Boise, Idaho, on U.S. groundwater-monitoring systems and modeling methods. They also studied techniques for protecting groundwater sources. Groundwater is important to water security in Central Asia’s arid and semi-arid areas. UNESCO estimates that it accounts for 98% of the world’s unfrozen freshwater. The organization says groundwater in Central Asia remains under-researched and under-governed, while cross-border cooperation is limited. Kazakhstan is also developing a national water information system that will integrate data on surface water and groundwater. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, it is intended to support predictive water management.