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Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP)

Kyrgyz Energy Ministry Rejects Concerns About Seismic Safety of Future Kambarata-1 HPP

The Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy has dismissed concerns raised by leading seismologists about the seismic safety of the planned Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP), a flagship regional energy project jointly backed by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Speaking at a parliamentary committee meeting on September 9, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, President of Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences and Director of the Institute of Seismology, warned that the future dam may be vulnerable to strong earthquakes due to its proposed location. Seismic Warnings from Scientists “The dam is planned in a dangerous area, surrounded by mountains,” Abdrakhmatov said. “It may not withstand a powerful earthquake.” He stressed that preliminary seismic micro-zoning studies had not been conducted and said his institute had written twice to the Ministry of Energy requesting such research, but received no response. He warned that the destruction of Kambarata-1 in the event of a major earthquake could trigger cascading failures downstream, including at the existing Kambarata-2 HPP and other facilities. Ministry and International Experts Respond In a formal statement issued on September 10, the Ministry of Energy rejected the criticism and pointed to a recent review conducted by Swiss engineering consultancy AFRY, which is responsible for updating the feasibility study for the project. According to the ministry, AFRY commissioned a team of international experts, including renowned dam safety specialists Dr. Martin Wieland and Dr. Stefan Ehlers, to carry out a comprehensive seismic analysis of the proposed site. The assessment used geological, tectonic, and seismic data, as well as satellite imagery and historical earthquake records. The experts recommended constructing a curved gravity dam, which they said would improve both the structural stability and hydraulic performance of the plant. AFRY concluded that the dam would withstand projected seismic loads and stated that “its overall behavior in terms of load-bearing capacity is safe.” Ongoing Safety Measures The ministry also stated that further detailed safety studies are planned. These include the creation of a seismic micro-zoning map and the installation of three to five seismic monitoring stations at strategic points: along the dam’s axis, on both riverbanks, at the crest level, and upstream from the site. The Kambarata-1 HPP is expected to become the largest hydropower facility in Kyrgyzstan. With a projected capacity of 1,860 megawatts and average annual generation of 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours, the $4 billion project is seen as a critical step in alleviating chronic electricity shortages in the country. Construction Preparations Underway The Ministry of Energy has reported steady progress in preparatory works. Infrastructure projects currently underway include the construction of access roads, power transmission lines, a substation, a bridge across the Naryn River, and a shift camp for construction workers.

Aral Sea

Kazakhstan Sees Record Water Recovery in Northern Aral Sea

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation has reported a record increase in the volume of water in the Northern Aral Sea, exceeding national and international expectations. Water Returns to the Sea Since 2023, approximately 5 billion cubic meters of water have flowed into the basin, bringing the total reserve to 24.1 billion cubic meters. This figure surpasses the target set under Kazakhstan’s Water Resources Management Concept, which had aimed for only 20.6 billion cubic meters by 2025. The current level was not expected to be reached before 2029. Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov said that with the support of a World Bank grant, a feasibility study is underway to raise the Kokaral Dam by two meters and construct a new hydraulic facility. The project is designed to stabilize water levels in the Akshatau and Kamystybas lake systems. “The project aims to increase both the volume and quality of water in the Northern Aral Sea, restore the Syr Darya delta, reduce salt dispersion from the exposed seabed, develop the fishing industry in the Kyzylorda region, and improve living conditions for local communities,” the minister stated. International Cooperation Deputy Minister Nurlan Aldamzharov has said the second phase of the initiative envisions raising the Northern Aral’s capacity to 35 cubic kilometers. He emphasized the critical role of regional cooperation, particularly with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, as the sea’s recovery depends on sustained inflows from the Syr Darya River. Ministry spokesperson Moldir Abdualyeva attributed the recent progress to “water diplomacy, effective resource allocation, and conservation efforts.” Environmental and Social Impact The increase in water volume has led to a corresponding expansion of the sea’s surface area. As of February 2025, the Northern Aral covered 3,065 square kilometers, an increase of 111 square kilometers over the past three years. This has reduced salinity levels and enabled the return of 22 fish species to the ecosystem. The annual fish catch now totals around 8,000 tons, offering renewed economic opportunities for local communities. To further support the region, Kazakhstan has raised subsidies for farmers implementing water-saving technologies, increasing compensation rates from 50% to 80%. Officials say the measure is intended to conserve water while promoting sustainable agriculture in surrounding areas. The Small Aral Sea, or Northern Aral, was formed in 1987 during the broader desiccation of the Aral Sea and preserved following the construction of the Kokaral Dam. In 2012, it was added, alongside the Syr Darya delta, to the Ramsar List of Wetlands of International Importance. Kazakhstan assumed the rotating chairmanship of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) in 2024, further strengthening its leadership role in regional water cooperation and ecosystem restoration.

Climate Change

Melting Glaciers Threaten Tajik Agriculture

Climate change in Tajikistan is no longer a future concern, it is an immediate crisis. Farmers across the country are grappling with the effects of melting glaciers, prolonged heatwaves, and dust storms that are disrupting traditional agricultural cycles. In Vahdat district, the Usto Murod farm has adopted a dual-harvest strategy to mitigate risk. “If one crop fails, the second helps cover the costs,” says farmer Galatmo Alieva. But increasingly rapid glacier melt has doubled irrigation needs from three rounds per season to six. Heatwaves and dust storms have further damaged crops, while honey yields have plummeted from 25 kilograms per hive to just five. To cope, Alieva’s family installed a biogas plant with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), saving between $550 and $1,100 annually. However, broader adaptation measures remain financially out of reach. Loan interest rates hover around 31%, and water-efficient drip irrigation is used only in greenhouses. Unequal Access, Dwindling Resources Other farmers face even harsher realities. Rain-fed plots deliver meager returns, pastures are drying up, and water distribution remains inequitable. “Those at the canal head take all the water,” laments farmer Bakhtiyor. Engineer Alexander Pirov warns that accelerating glacier melt threatens not only agriculture but also the country’s hydropower sector. By 2080, Tajikistan is expected to experience 12 additional days per year with temperatures exceeding 40°C, compared to the 1986-2005 average. Already, 70% of Tajikistan’s arable land is considered degraded. High Costs, Limited Support Water-saving technologies could significantly improve crop yields and farmer incomes, yet the upfront costs, estimated at $5,000 or more, remain prohibitive for most rural families. As climate risks intensify, Tajikistan’s rural population is increasingly vulnerable. Without targeted investments in adaptation, infrastructure, and equitable resource distribution, the country’s agricultural backbone may begin to fracture under the weight of a rapidly changing environment.

Green Economy

UNDP and Eldik Bank Partner to Advance Green Finance in Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan is taking a significant step toward building a greener and more resilient economy. On September 9, state-owned Eldik Bank and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) signed a memorandum of understanding to deepen cooperation in sustainable finance. The agreement aims to mobilize climate-related investments, develop sustainable financial products, and integrate Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles into Kyrgyzstan’s banking sector. It also outlines plans for joint research and knowledge exchange in climate finance, including the creation of tools to assess climate risks in lending operations. This initiative supports Kyrgyzstan’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0) under the Paris Agreement, which commit the country to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, expanding renewable energy, and enhancing climate resilience. It also aligns with the National Development Program through 2030, which prioritizes expanding the regulatory framework for green finance. “UNDP supports the development of sustainable finance solutions that reduce the carbon footprint of the economy, enable the green transformation of businesses, and create new opportunities for investment,” said Alexandra Solovieva, UNDP Resident Representative in Kyrgyzstan. For Eldik Bank, the partnership represents more than a financial commitment; it is a strategic step toward becoming a catalyst for climate-conscious economic development. “Together with UNDP, we aim to introduce products that promote green growth and sustainable business development for our clients,” said Ulanbek Nogaev, Chair of the bank’s Management Board. Green finance is gaining traction across Central Asia, a region still heavily reliant on extractive industries but increasingly vulnerable to climate risks such as water scarcity, extreme weather, and glacial melt. Kyrgyzstan’s efforts to empower domestic financial institutions signal that achieving climate goals will require more than policy declarations; it will demand concrete investments and innovation. The Eldik Bank-UNDP partnership also underscores the importance of regional cooperation. Similar initiatives are under discussion in neighboring countries, as Central Asia seeks to attract international capital for renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and green infrastructure projects. If effectively implemented, Kyrgyzstan’s model could serve as a regional benchmark, demonstrating how national banks can help transform global climate commitments into tangible, growth-oriented outcomes.

Afghanistan Earthquake

Tajikistan Sends Large Convoy with Quake Aid to Afghanistan

Tajikistan has said it has sent more than 3,000 tons of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, one of the biggest dispatches of supplies from another country since a devastating earthquake in eastern Afghan provinces on August 31. Photographs released by the office of President Emomali Rahmon show a long line of trucks on a highway, apparently headed to the border with Afghanistan on Monday. The delivery came as the United States and other countries congratulated Tajikistan ahead of the 34th anniversary of its Sept. 9, 1991 independence from the collapsing Soviet Union. “The aid loaded on a caravan of trucks consists of 24 types of necessary products and materials, including flour, oil, sugar, rice, bedding, clothing and footwear for children, adolescents and adults, tents, building materials, reinforcement, boards, slate, cement, and other goods and products,” Tajikistan’s presidential office said. It said the aid exemplified Tajikistan’s “humane and good-neighborly policy.” Tajikistan retains security concerns about its border with Afghanistan. Tajik border guards and fighters with Afghanistan’s Taliban government exchanged fire in an area along the border on August 24, though the two sides later met to reduce tensions. Tajikistan’s aid convoy traveled to Afghanistan two days after Uzbekistan handed over 256 tons of aid in the Afghan border city of Hairatan. Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also thanked Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan for assistance following the quake, which killed at least 2,200 people. It expressed gratitude in a post on X that listed dozens of countries that have sent help. Central Asian countries in particular have been building ties with Afghanistan as they seek to expand trade routes. The quake destroyed thousands of homes, and humanitarian workers are still struggling to reach affected communities in remote, mountainous areas. Shannon O’Hara, a senior United Nations aid coordination official in Afghanistan, said on Monday that emergency responders are prioritizing aid to women, children, and people with disabilities. “In Afghanistan, in recent years, women and girls have been pushed to the very margins of society and survival,” O’Hara said, according to a U.N. statement. “We know from previous earthquakes and other crises that women and girls always bear the heaviest burden.”

Water Management

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan Agree on Joint Water and Energy Measures

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have reached a landmark agreement on coordinated water and energy management, signaling a deepening commitment to cross-border cooperation amid growing seasonal and climate-related challenges. The agreement was formalized on September 7 in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan, during a meeting of energy ministers and water management authorities from the three countries. The protocols define mutual obligations for water releases and electricity exchanges, with the goal of balancing the region’s energy needs and preserving critical water resources. Under the terms of the agreement, Kyrgyzstan will release water from the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) reservoir to downstream Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In return, Kyrgyzstan will receive electricity from both countries through spring 2026. According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy, the arrangement is designed to optimize the use of water stored in Toktogul and to secure reliable electricity supplies for Kyrgyzstan during the 2025-2026 autumn-winter period. Regional Power Transit Agreements The protocols also include provisions for cross-border electricity transit: from Russia to Kyrgyzstan via Kazakhstan’s grid, and from Turkmenistan to Kyrgyzstan through Uzbekistan’s transmission network. The Toktogul HPP, situated on the Naryn River, a major tributary of the Syr Darya, is Kyrgyzstan’s largest power facility, generating roughly 40% of the country’s electricity. It serves a dual function: providing domestic energy and regulating water flows that are essential for irrigation in downstream Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In winter, Kyrgyzstan often increases power output from Toktogul to meet heating demand, but this can significantly lower reservoir levels, jeopardizing irrigation supplies the following spring. The new agreement is intended to reduce this risk by enabling Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to supply electricity during peak winter months, allowing Kyrgyzstan to conserve water. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy emphasized that the trilateral deal is crucial to maintaining water levels in Toktogul and ensuring sufficient irrigation for southern Kazakhstan during the next growing season. Broader Regional Energy Cooperation Separately, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed an agreement for the supply of approximately 900 million kilowatt-hours of electricity between March and December 2026. The electricity is expected to cover anticipated shortages in Kazakhstan’s southern power grid and further underscores the growing interdependence of Central Asia’s energy and water systems.