Opinions - The Times Of Central Asia

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Mirziyoyev Fortifies China-Uzbekistan Relations for Economic and Green Transformation

Ahead of his trip to Beijing, in his article for the People's Daily, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev poured lavish praise on China. Not only did Mirziyoyev say he admired Chinese President Xi Jinping's global development, security and civilization initiatives as efforts to significantly address global challenges and accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and inclusive future, he also aligned Tashkent's vision of regional and international security with Beijing. Mirziyoyev has paid several visits to China, underscoring Beijing's growing importance in his economic and development agenda. His objective to strengthen "multifaceted" relations with Beijing further expounds the fact that China will be a centerpiece of his foreign and regional policy and ambition for a green transition. During his October's trip to Beijing to attend the third Belt and Road Forum, Mirziyoyev struck a complimentary tone, expressing gratitude to Xi for the invitation, stressed that the number of Chinese companies investing in Uzbekistan had increased fivefold and said that he expected bilateral trade to exceed $10 billion by the end of 2023. Mirziyoyev’s campaign has worked, given that Chinese enterprises are the second-largest investors in the country, China accounts for more than one-fifth of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade (21.3%) and bilateral trade in 2023 has far exceeded expectations, reaching $14 billion. Once Mirziyoyev signaled that China as one of his top foreign policy priorities, it helped Tashkent sign several agreements with Beijing. In his latest visit, Mirziyoyev called for international unity on the "Green Silk Road," which was first proposed by Xi in Uzbekistan back in 2016, and fully supported the green initiative’s potential to shape the agenda for a “common green future.” Construction of a 400-megawatt solar photovoltaic power plant by PowerChina and Mirziyoyev's meetings with Chinese energy companies in October indicated that he was impressed by their ability to deploy modern engineering solutions in electricity transmission networks and to implement solar, wind and hybrid power projects. Just last month, Mirziyoyev praised his strategic partner for completing projects at an “astonishingly” fast pace, and he continues to hail China's progress on large scale joint investments projects which have helped Tashkent make important strides in developing green energy and their endeavor to create 27 gigawatts of renewable energy generation by 2030. While cooperation with the "undisputed global leader" in renewable energy would solidify Tashkent's energy security and environmental sustainability, the first hydrogen plant in the country and region will also save some 33 million cubic meters of gas every year, decarbonize heavy industries, and add a new engine of growth, raising Uzbekistan’s international profile. The two nations are promoting active cooperation on infrastructure, too. The Chinese-built Angren-Pap railway line, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan transport corridor, and the four routes of the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline that pass through Uzbekistan denote a region-wide consensus on developing intra- and inter-regional infrastructure to push trade, enhance connectivity, and bring prosperity. Once finalized, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project will give Central Asia the shortest and most accessible passage to global markets, bringing billions of dollars of investments into...

Kazakhstan at a Crossroads: Navigating Geopolitical Dynamics in Eurasia

Sharing borders with China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country in the world and the ninth largest overall by land area. Its geography makes this country a pivotal transit hub and it is now in the process of reshaping its strategic role in Eurasia. A recent significant development is the announcement of a new railway to China, which will further enhance Kazakhstan’s position in global trade, including in China’s famous Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Deepening its relationship with China is one way that Kazakhstan seeks to diversify its economic and political ties away from Russia. At the same time, Kazakhstan is also looking to reduce its relative dependency on China and trying to balance its relationships with other major powers. Although some Western states have lately recognised this, and various international financial institutions are also assisting in enhancing Kazakhstan’s connectivity, these actors still need to pay more focused attention to Kazakhstan and work with the country in a more constructive manner. Expanding infrastructure and regional connectivity In the past, Kazakhstan has strengthened its position as a transit corridor through investments of more than $3.5 billion in the Khorgos gateway on the Chinese border (for facilitating Chinese goods being shipped to Central Asia and Europe), and other significant investments in various railways (most recently, the Shalkar–Beyneu and Zhezkazgan–Saksaul lines), as well as in the Kuryk seaport on the Caspian Sea and in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). The TITR is a 6,500-km corridor that links Asia with Europe and passes through various countries including Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. The Kuryk seaport has direct access to railway tracks and is fast becoming an important multi-modal route for cargo transshipment. In May 2023, Kazakhstan and China signed 47 co-operation agreements worth $22 billion. At the time, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev underlined that “the full exploitation of our transport and logistics capacity is of strategic importance”. He named China, Europe, Russia, and Central Asia as targets for logistical expansion. Reviewing bilateral relations with China in October last year, Tokayev proclaimed that his initiatives “confirm Kazakhstan’s readiness to strengthen our ‘all-weather’ relations and multifaceted co-operation”. Kazakhstan’s new railways amid incipient geopolitical shifts Given the above context, the recent announcement of the third railway connection between Kazakhstan and China is an important development that will enhance freight capacity and reduce border congestion. The new 272-kilometre (km) line will run in a south-east direction from Ayagoz in eastern Kazakhstan to Bakhty on the Chinese border before continuing to Chuguchak in Tacheng prefecture. The double-track railway is expected to boost freight capacity between Kazakhstan and China by more than two thirds, raising annual carriage from 28 million to about 48 million tonnes per year after its completion in 2027. The connection is a part of the major investment in a total of 1,300 km of new railway lines that are expected to facilitate exports and contribute to the TITR’s development. In the meantime, Kazakhstan has recently flashed on the geopolitical...

What the Proposed U.S. Ban on Russian Uranium Imports Could Mean for Kazakhstan

On Monday, 11 December 2023, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a new bill banning imports of Russian uranium. While the bill would need to pass the U.S. Senate and be signed off by President Joe Biden in order to become law, this first step towards legality raises questions about the future of nuclear energy in the U.S., and which country could provide the resources necessary to facilitate it going forwards. This bill represents a significant opportunity for Kazakhstan, the world’s largest producer of uranium, which could potentially step into the breach and provide the mineral necessary to meet the U.S.' nuclear energy needs. If successfully made into law, the bill entitled the “Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act” will see a complete ban on unirradiated low-enriched uranium (the type used to make nuclear fuel) that is produced in Russia, and annual caps on the amount of low-enriched uranium that can still be imported from the country until 2027. Waivers have been built into the wording of the legislation to allow the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to work around the ban if no feasible alternative is found to sustain the functioning of a nuclear reactor or nuclear company. However, the bill also guides the DOE to submit a report outlining the alternatives to Russian-produced uranium, which could be utilized over the next five years. One country sure to be on their radar is Kazakhstan. A former powerhouse of the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons testing program, Kazakhstan was left with significant infrastructure for uranium mining after the collapse of the bloc in 1991. Its nuclear production is currently monopolized by one company, Kazatomprom, which has emerged as a global leader in the field. Although the U.S. mines its own uranium, it does not produce enough to meet its domestic demands for nuclear power, which in the year 2022 was over 20,100 metric tonnes in total. That year, the U.S. produced 75 metric tonnes of uranium ore from its own mines. By comparison, Kazakhstan produced 21,227 metric tonnes in the same time period. Mukhtar Dzhakishev, the former head of Kazatomprom, has spoken about the necessity of increasing the volume of production in Kazakhstan if it were to be a viable candidate for replacing Russia’s supply to the U.S. Greater resources would need to be directed towards mining if the country were to increase its annual uranium yield to make up for the lost volume of Russian uranium. If the U.S. were to seek a trade agreement with Kazakhstan to bolster its nuclear power supplies, it would indicate an alignment with the European Union, which recently expressed a desire to conduct increased trade with countries in Central Asia. Given that the largest exports from Central Asian countries to Europe are of natural resources such as oil, gas and metals, it is safe to assume that energy will be one of the key goals in any trade deals the EU tries to negotiate. These announcements have arisen in the wake of Russia’s war in...

Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy: A New Year’s Outlook Under President Tokayev

When Kassym-Jomart Tokayev became the President of Kazakhstan in 2019, he brought to the role a wealth of experience from his long diplomatic career. Amongst many responsibilities, this experience included high-level government positions such as the post of deputy foreign minister and prime minister. Navigating geopolitical challenges since 2019 Tokayev has had a high global profile, including serving as director-general of the United Nations Office in Geneva. It was therefore expected that his internationally recognised acumen would play a foundational role in defining Kazakhstan's path through the complex, and sometimes chaotically evolving, geopolitics in Central Asia and beyond. Tokayev became president at a time when Kazakhstan faced both internal and external challenges. Domestic political and administrative reforms could not wait. The country’s strategically important natural resources, such as uranium and oil, as well as its keystone geographic position at the heart of Central Asia with a long border on the Caspian Sea attracted the attention of the international community. Situated between Russia and China, Kazakhstan required a balanced and nuanced foreign policy to respond to growing interest from the European Union (EU) and the United States. Since assuming the presidency in 2019, Tokayev has enhanced the country's geo-economic context as a shaper of transit corridors. Most notable of these is the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route (TITR), which puts Kazakhstan at the centre of pivotal geopolitical dynamics as a bridge between Europe and Asia. Strengthening bilateral and multilateral partnerships The EU, recognising Kazakhstan’s importance, has deepened its engagement with the country through an Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement that entered into force in 2020. Deeper ties between Astana and Brussels, and the EU's interest in Kazakhstan, go far beyond hydrocarbon energy resources to embrace cooperation in green technologies, digital transformation and sustainable development. At the same time, Tokayev's tenure has seen Kazakhstan navigate its relationships with international superpowers amidst significant "black-swan" events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the worsening of Russia's conflict with Ukraine. His administration has skilfully maintained good ties with Russia while also adhering to international sanctions. Such an approach showcases Kazakhstan's commitment to global norms, multilateralism and international cooperation, combined with its commitment to an independent foreign policy based on national interests. Under President Tokayev's leadership, Kazakhstan has enhanced its diplomatic engagement by emphasising its strategic role in both regional and global geopolitics. His tenure has been marked by a continuing series of high-profile meetings and participation in key summits. Kazakhstan has also made crucial contributions to regional organisations, such as the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The country's involvement in these organisations underlines its commitment to regional cooperation and integration. Particularly in the OTS, Kazakhstan has emerged as a leader, facilitating discussions and promoting initiatives that align with its broader foreign policy goals. Top-level international meetings (with figures such as U.S. President Joe Biden, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese Communist Party Chief Xi Jinping, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and French President Emmanuel Macron) underscore Kazakhstan's central strategic importance in global...

Islamic Extremism in Central Asia: A Threat to Liberal Progress

Afghanistan earned its reputation as the “graveyard of empires” due to the significant toll exacted on foreign powers in their efforts to achieve military success in the country. This challenge was evident in the experiences of the British Empire, the Soviet Union, and, most recently, the United States. The persistent and decentralized nature of the country's tribal insurgency made achieving a definitive victory a formidable task. Furthermore, the adherence of groups harbored by the Taliban, such as Al Qaeda, to an extremist religious ideology spread terrorism globally, including in the 9/11 attacks as well as other deadly acts of violence in various parts of the world. While the United States arguably played a constructive role in modernizing Afghanistan, the establishment of democracy and Western values in the country proved to be an insurmountable challenge, even with over $100 billion in foreign aid. With heightened tensions between the Islamic and Western populations reignited in the Levant after the deadly Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, the threat of Afghanistan-based extremists redirecting their focus towards the West has intensified. Often overlooked is the fact that Salafists jihadists and other radical groups also pose a challenge to the emerging democracies in Central Asia as these Muslim-majority secular republics are seen as areas to spread their undemocratic and potentially violent influence. In this context, policies that may even inadvertently help promote illiberal religious movements threaten the region’s secular identity and the security of its peoples. We should assess Central Asia’s unique position on religious freedoms but also on jihadist threats For the large part, Western countries come from a privileged position of being able to resist the widespread influence from Islamic extremist movements at home thanks mainly to generations of democratic institution building as well as decent geographic distance to areas that would fall under pan-jihadist aspirations. Consider that there is no apparent threat of jihadists entirely displacing Western democratic institutions or imposing a pan-Islamist state encompassing parts of Western nations; most Western lands do not fall on areas some of these groups want to conquer to create an Islamic Caliphate. On the other hand, many other places, including Central Asia, still risk misconstruing the line between defending individual freedoms and combatting religious extremism. Here, the coexistence of extremist Islamic ideologies and democracy remains somewhat precarious. Islamic radicalism continues to pose a serious challenge to the emerging democracies of the region, where the secular republics are trying to keep a lid on certain hostile ideologies. Militant groups spilling over from Afghanistan and infiltrating post-Soviet countries want to spread jihad to the region and create an Islamic Khaganate stretching from Egypt to China. Pan-Islamist Salafists, such as Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Al Qaeda, have a clear goal to overthrow Central Asia’s secular regimes. Moreover, the determination of Salafists jihadists and other groups to spread their illiberal and violent struggle to Central Asia (including from neighboring Afghanistan) has become apparent through their growing presence in the region’s schools and other spheres of public...

Central Asia’s Growing Economic and Strategic Importance Comes to Fore

The Central Asian region has experienced a tremendous economic transformation since the beginning of the century. Its aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) now totals $397 billion, growing 8.6-fold since the year 2000. Its share in global GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) has also increased 1.8 times. The GDP per capita has tripled as the labor pool has grown to almost 80 million, representing a 1.4-fold increase since 2000. The region’s strategic importance, particularly thanks to its geographic position bridging major economies of Europe and Asia, makes it a key player in geopolitical dynamics. Central Asia’s dependence on commodity exports and remittances has so far limited its integration into global value-chains. The Central Asia Regional Economic Co-operation (CAREC) Program, established by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), plays an important role in fostering regional development and co-operation. CAREC includes the five Central Asia countries (namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) plus Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Mongolia and Pakistan. CAREC also partners with five multilateral international institutions in addition to the ADB (which serves as its Secretariat). These are the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Bank (a.k.a. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development or IBRD). The Program has constructively helped the countries of Central Asia to address challenges in trade governance. Nevertheless, inefficiencies in cross-border transport and customs procedures continue to hinder their commercial exchanges with one another as well as with external partners. CAREC’s current policy-implementation priorities are integration of regional trade, digitization, climate change, regional co-operation, development of financial technologies and financing in the water sector. There is still significant potential for further development given that the region’s trade within itself has been growing faster than its foreign trade. Enhancing Central Asia’s role in the global economy will require the implementation of co-operative initiatives already identified, especially in infrastructure. Such construction of new physical plants, as well as the renovation and building-out of those that already exist, is crucial for enhancing economic growth and sustainability. This strategy will leverage the region’s strengths such as its strategic location and resource endowments. In 2023, Central Asia’s economic growth is projected to remain relatively steady at 3.9 percent, but this may still be affected by the global challenges of weak external demand, rising inflation and supply-chain disruptions. These global economic conditions, along with the uncertainties that they engender, reflect continuing burdens of the ongoing post-COVID recovery as well as the effects of the war in Ukraine, which significantly impacts the region. In addition to the ADB, the IBRD also focuses on various development initiatives in Central Asia that aim to support regional infrastructure development and the strengthening of cross-border co-operation. These are implemented through relatively low-profile initiatives such as the Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP) to enhance energy and water security and the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) to improve weather, climate and hydrological services. The IBRD thus aims to increase...