Kazakhstan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Gold and Copper Exploration in Kazakhstan Gets Boost from Australian Joint Venture

Australian mining firm C29 Metals Limited has entered into a joint venture agreement with Bask International Group Ltd, a company registered in Astana. The newly established joint venture (JV) aims to explore promising copper and gold deposits across Kazakhstan. C29 Metals is not a newcomer to Kazakhstan’s mineral sector. In the spring of 2024, the company obtained a geological exploration license for its Ulytau project, which includes several solid mineral deposits, notably uranium. It has since submitted two additional applications for uranium exploration. However, according to a recent company announcement, the new JV will focus exclusively on copper and gold and will not be involved in C29 Metals’ uranium interests in the country. The joint venture, registered at the Astana International Financial Center (AIFC), will concentrate on identifying and acquiring exploration projects with significant geological potential. According to the agreement, C29 Metals will hold a 75% stake in the venture, with Bask International Group retaining 25%. C29 will fully finance the geological exploration, thereby relieving its Kazakh partner of any financial burden. The board of directors will comprise two representatives from the Australian company and one from the Kazakh side. “The conclusion of this joint venture agreement marks another important milestone in our strategic growth plans,” said Shannon Green, Managing Director of C29 Metals. “The partnership with Bask International Group in Kazakhstan will give us access to opportunities beyond our typical reach. Bask’s network and capabilities will enable us to move at an unprecedented pace as we scale operations.” Yerlan Issekeshev, head of Bask International Group Ltd, emphasized Kazakhstan’s untapped mining potential: “Kazakhstan is on the cusp of a new era in resource development. While exploration slowed during the post-Soviet period, the country’s mineral wealth remains vast and underexplored.” As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is set to auction off 50 gold and rare metal deposits in June 2025, offering electronic tenders for exploration and development rights.

Kazakhstan Signals Early Review of Oil Production Sharing Agreements

The question of revisiting Kazakhstan’s production-sharing agreements (PSAs) with foreign oil companies is once again gaining prominence both within the country and internationally. While the Ministry of Energy is formally responsible for managing these contracts, growing pressure is coming not only from civil society but also directly from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who has publicly questioned the long-standing terms of these deals since 2022. Confidential Terms, Public Scrutiny Recent revelations have further fueled this debate. The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) recently detailed the ongoing arbitration dispute between Kazakhstan and the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), which manages the Kashagan field. The stakes are high: $160 billion is under contention. Yet what shocked the Kazakh public most was not the litigation itself, but that the state receives just 2% of the field’s profits, with a staggering 98% flowing to foreign stakeholders. Such findings offer context for why the Ministry of Energy is reluctant to release details of these 1990s-era agreements, originally negotiated with significant involvement from Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. In a recent court case, the ministry successfully blocked a lawsuit by Vadim Ni, founder of the Save the Caspian Sea movement, who demanded public disclosure of PSA terms affecting environmental interests in the Caspian. The ministry argued that Kazakhstan’s adherence to international confidentiality clauses is essential to avoid multibillion-dollar lawsuits and maintain its reputation as a stable investment destination. However, the ministry also emphasized that confidentiality does not shield violators from environmental penalties. Calls for transparency and revision have come from various quarters. Members of the Ak Zhol party and the Parasat Business Alliance have joined the chorus, urging the government to review the PSAs. In this context, President Tokayev’s consistent remarks suggest a coordinated state policy shift. A Change in Presidential Tone Tokayev first broached the subject in a 2022 interview with Russia 24, reflecting on the constraints Kazakhstan faced during the early years of independence. At the time, the country had no legal framework for foreign investment and had to rely on companies like Chevron to develop its energy sector. The president acknowledged the success of some ventures but also suggested the need for a “correction” to reflect current realities. Fast forward to 2023, and the government launched a $5 billion lawsuit against NCOC over alleged environmental violations. Although Kazakhstan has been temporarily barred from collecting the fines pending arbitration, the case marks a significant escalation. In April 2024, the Parasat Business Alliance held a public briefing demanding more local participation in procurement contracts tied to oil fields such as Karachaganak, Kashagan, and Tengiz. Kazakh companies reportedly receive less than 5% of $12 billion in annual procurements, a figure viewed as unacceptable by domestic businesses. By January 2025, Tokayev’s rhetoric had hardened. Speaking at an expanded government meeting, he instructed his cabinet to actively renegotiate PSA terms before their expiration. "The implementation of these agreements has helped Kazakhstan become a reliable global energy supplier,” he said, “but large investments require updated terms that benefit our nation.”...

Rare Earth Elements

After Securing Ukraine Agreement, U.S. Eyes Central Asia for Rare Earths

After months of negotiations, the United States and Ukraine have finally signed an agreement to co-finance the development of Ukraine’s mineral resources, hydrocarbons, and infrastructure. According to The National Interest, the U.S. will not assume ownership of Ukraine’s assets; instead, profits will be directed into a joint investment fund, with full reinvestment in Ukraine. Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko described the deal as a mutually beneficial partnership. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed it as a “historic economic partnership,” underscoring America’s enduring commitment to a “free and prosperous Ukraine.” Since his return to office in January, President Donald Trump has prioritized securing access to rare earth minerals. This move is part of a broader U.S. strategy to reduce reliance on China, which currently dominates the sector with control over approximately two-thirds of global production. By contrast, the United States accounts for only about 12%. While Ukraine possesses 22 of the 50 minerals identified as critical by the U.S. government, it holds just around 5% of global reserves. As a result, Washington is looking beyond Ukraine and Central Asia has emerged as a strategic alternative. Reports from the Caspian Policy Center and the International Tax and Investment Center highlight the region’s significant rare earth potential. The countries of Central Asia have already taken steps toward deeper cooperation. In 2024, the United States and Uzbekistan signed a Memorandum of Understanding to enhance collaboration on critical minerals. However, competition for access remains stiff. China maintains robust trade links across the region, and Russia continues to wield considerable economic influence. Nonetheless, regional dynamics are shifting. In recent years, Central Asian states have increasingly sought to diversify their partnerships, reducing dependence on Moscow and Beijing. They have moved to deepen ties with the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. In September 2023, then-President Joe Biden met with Central Asian leaders to discuss regional cooperation, including rare earth supply chains. This was followed by the June 2024 meeting of the U.S.-Central Asia Trade and Investment Framework Council, where both parties emphasized the need for increased trade and integration. Like Ukraine, Central Asian nations stand to gain from U.S. investment, particularly in energy infrastructure and broader economic development. If implemented effectively, rare earth revenues could be retained within the region, supporting long-term local growth. For the United States, enhanced access to Central Asian resources represents a step toward greater energy security and reduced strategic vulnerability. While China and Russia maintain structural advantages, Washington now has a meaningful opportunity to deepen its presence in Central Asia and forge enduring partnerships.

Oil Price

KazMunayGas Sees No Risk from Falling Oil Prices, Prepares for Market Fluctuations

Kazakhstan’s national oil company KazMunayGas (KMG) has developed contingency strategies to manage volatility in global hydrocarbon markets and says it is fully prepared for any changes in oil prices. As of the morning of May 5, Brent crude had dropped to $59.30 per barrel and WTI to $56.19, the lowest levels since April 9, following the OPEC+ decision to increase production. In response to questions at a media briefing, KMG Deputy Chairman Aset Magauov said the company foresees no significant risks despite this sharp decline. “Analysts expect oil prices to average around $65 per barrel this year, though no one can predict with certainty,” Magauov stated. “We don’t see any risks for KazMunayGas. We have prepared for various scenarios and identified measures to optimize our expenses. In principle, we are ready for any fluctuations.” KMG, which accounts for 26% of Kazakhstan’s total oil production and 80% of the domestic refining market, supplies roughly 70% of its crude oil to the domestic market. This oil is processed at Kazakhstan’s major refineries to ensure stable fuel and lubricant supplies. According to Magauov, the cost of domestic supply remains well below export prices, insulating KMG from international volatility. “Even while export prices fluctuate, domestic prices remain stable and significantly lower than the lowest export benchmarks,” Magauov said. “Therefore, the majority of our sales, around 70%, are unaffected by global market movements. Moreover, exports of gasoline and diesel are limited, with nearly all production sold domestically.” Magauov also noted ongoing discussions with Russian energy firm Tatneft on the potential joint development of the Atyrau refinery. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s antitrust agency proposed privatizing state-owned stakes in the Pavlodar and Atyrau oil refineries, moves that could reshape the sector’s competitive landscape. Meanwhile, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov announced in April that Kazakhstan aims to double its domestic oil refining capacity by 2040, from 17.9 million tons in 2024 to 38 million tons annually.

Kazakhstan Braces for Economic Fallout from OPEC+ Output Hike

The latest OPEC+ decision to boost oil production in a strained global market threatens to push Kazakhstan closer to recession and further inflation. On May 3, OPEC+ members agreed to a significant increase in oil output for June. Leading financial outlets, including Bloomberg, suggest that the move is intended to penalize member states that have consistently breached their production quotas, most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. The announcement triggered a sharp drop in oil prices. Production will rise by 411,000 barrels per day in June, following a tripling of output in May from the originally planned volume. Analysts attribute the shift to Riyadh’s growing frustration with non-compliant members. According to Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official, Saudi Arabia aims to “financially wear down” these states while aligning with U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for lower energy prices. Kazakhstan’s Overproduction at Tengiz Despite repeated assurances from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy that they would honor OPEC+ agreements, the country exceeded its January quota by 32,000 barrels per day (bpd), producing 1.5 million bpd versus an allotted 1.468 million. This surge followed Tengizchevroil LLP’s launch of a new expansion phase at the Tengiz oil field in the Atyrau region, elevating output there to 870,000 barrels per day, 45% above the 2024 average. The expansion is expected to add 12 million tons annually to Tengiz’s crude production. Tengizchevroil is a joint venture comprising Chevron (50%), ExxonMobil (25%), KazMunayGas (20%), and LUKOIL (5%). Falling Prices and Criticism of OPEC’s Tactics Following the OPEC+ announcement, Brent crude futures fell to $59.30 per barrel on May 5, with U.S. WTI at $56.19. Some analysts argue Kazakhstan is being unfairly targeted. As Reuters reports, Kazakhstan contributes only 5% of OPEC+ production and under 2% of global output. Analysts at the Stankevicius Group note that larger producers such as the UAE, Russia, and Iraq have repeatedly breached quotas without facing similar scrutiny. They argue that Saudi Arabia’s surge in production undermines the cartel’s objectives more than Kazakhstan’s actions. “Saudi Arabia, which has sharply increased its oil production, is causing even greater damage to the OPEC+ agreement by encouraging lower prices," the analysts claimed. "In other words, Kazakhstan is maintaining a balance of interests and the interests of other cartel members. Meanwhile, other members are allowing themselves to disrupt the market balance.” Planning for a Downturn Oil revenues are central to Kazakhstan’s state budget, prompting government officials to prepare for a potential downturn. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin stated in April that contingency plans are being developed for scenarios where oil prices fall to $55 or even $50 per barrel. However, the national budget is pegged to a $75 per barrel benchmark. According to analyst Murat Kastaev, social obligations make spending cuts politically infeasible, leaving the government reliant on increased transfers from the National Fund and a probable weakening of the tenge. While GDP growth could slow to 3-3.5% at current prices, a sustained drop to $40-50 per barrel may trigger a recession...

Vietnamese Investment Group Eyes Airport Purchase in Kazakhstan

Vietnam’s SOVICO Group, the new owner of Kazakh airline Qazaq Air, is considering acquiring or managing an airport in Kazakhstan, according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin. SOVICO Group, one of Vietnam’s leading investment conglomerates, operates across sectors including finance, aviation, energy, and digital transformation. The group also owns VietJet Air, an international low-cost airline with a fleet of 85 aircraft. In 2024, SOVICO acquired Qazaq Air, a domestic carrier the Kazakh government had been trying to sell since 2023 for KZT 10.2 billion (approx. $19.7 million). However, the final sale price was significantly lower: KZT 2 billion (approx. $3.8 million), according to Transport Minister Marat Karabaev. Qazaq Air currently serves 14 domestic routes, four of which are state-subsidized and four international destinations. New Brand, Broader Ambitions During a Kazakhstan-Vietnam business roundtable in Astana on Tuesday, it was announced that Qazaq Air will be rebranded as VietJet Kazakhstan. “We highly appreciate the intention of SOVICO Group and VietJet Air to manage Qazaq Air under the new brand,” said Nurlan Zhakupov, Chairman of the Board of Samruk-Kazyna JSC. “Expanding the route network will enhance regional connectivity and foster new economic growth.” Zhumangarin mentioned that SOVICO Group is actively exploring options to either acquire or manage a Kazakh airport. “The company is large, rapidly expanding, and maintains numerous international partnerships. An airline needs a base airport, and they are considering establishing one here,” he said. Strategic Infrastructure Interest SOVICO has also signaled its interest in modernizing regional airport infrastructure, specifically in the Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions, a move seen as part of its broader strategy to expand operations in Central Asia. In 2023, bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and Vietnam reached nearly $1 billion, although it dipped slightly to $879 million by the end of 2024.