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Kazakhstan’s Geoeconomic Rise and Why the U.S. Must Act Now – Opinion

The recent call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu highlights an evolving but structurally inevitable dynamic: the growing convergence of interests between Washington and Astana. Kazakhstan has been explicit about its priorities — independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and balanced external relations. The U.S. has strategic imperatives that align directly with what Kazakhstan can offer, particularly in the domains of supply chain diversification, energy security, and critical minerals. The two countries now have the opportunity, reinforced by shifts in global economic and security networks, to establish a substantive and resilient bilateral relationship. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan has pursued an adaptive strategy of multi-vector diplomacy. This balancing mechanism is not merely a preference but rather an intrinsic requirement for preserving its sovereignty in a structurally asymmetric regional environment that is dictated by its geostrategic positioning. U.S. policymakers should recognize that Kazakhstan’s entanglements with Russia through security frameworks and its economic cooperation with China are not exclusionary choices. They are stabilizing counterweights that act to sustain Kazakhstan’s agency. The U.S. must embed itself within this framework. This means serving as a complementary pillar of economic and strategic equilibrium and not supplanting those existing ties. That means Washington’s approach has to pivot. For too long, U.S. engagement with Kazakhstan has been episodic and reactive, lacking internal logic and conditioned by external crises. Diplomatic rhetoric on democratic values and governance, while relevant, cannot substitute for material economic and strategic interdependence. For the U.S. to secure a meaningful place in Kazakhstan’s geopolitical architecture, it must offer tangible incentives through structured economic integration that reinforces Astana’s sovereignty. The two countries’ geoeconomic interests coincide most strongly in the issue areas of energy security, critical minerals, and telecommunications infrastructure. Vulnerabilities exposed by recent global shocks have forced the U.S. to recalibrate toward supply chain resilience. In this context, redundancy and diversification are no longer inefficiencies but have become security imperatives. Kazakhstan’s relevance to these concerns is a direct consequence of its resource endowments and logistical positioning. Energy security is the first pillar of stabilization. Kazakhstan, one of the world’s foremost uranium producers and a major oil and gas supplier, has continually expanded non-Russian export corridors westward to reduce its dependence on Russian transit routes. The U.S., having maintained a legacy of investment in Kazakhstan’s energy sector, should now move toward embedding its involvement within these diversified export pathways. This win-win solution would ensure that Kazakhstan’s resource flows are not beholden to Russian infrastructure bottlenecks. Critical minerals represent the second pillar. The U.S. legislative push under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the CHIPS Act mandates a diversification of supply chains for rare earth elements (REEs) and other critical materials. Kazakhstan’s reserves of REEs, copper, and other industrial inputs logically make it an important node in a decentralized, resilient industrial network. However, investment must not remain exclusively extractive in nature. The objective must be to integrate Kazakhstan into midstream processing and value-added production, again producing...

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Kazakhstan’s Rare Earth Ambitions Hindered by Investment and Control Challenges

Kazakhstan holds significant reserves of rare metals and rare earth elements, sometimes referred to as the "new oil" due to their increasing importance in global industries. However, experts say the country remains far from becoming a major supplier, as geopolitical tensions and a lack of large-scale investment continue to hinder development. Global Context: Rare Earth Metals in Geopolitics U.S. President Donald Trump has called for a rare-earth deal with Ukraine, raising international public interest in these minerals. While the specifics of the deal remain unclear, Trump has estimated its potential value at a trillion dollars. Meanwhile, Russia, which holds the world’s fourth-largest rare earth reserves, has expressed interest in cooperating with the U.S. in this sector. Experts argue that large-scale mining operations in Ukraine are currently unprofitable and impractical. The rare metal sector includes 60 elements, such as lithium, titanium, beryllium, gallium, and tungsten, while rare-earth metals include 17 elements, such as scandium, yttrium, and lanthanides. Their high production costs, complex extraction process, and long payback periods have made large-scale commercial extraction difficult despite growing global demand. Is Kazakhstan a Promising Market? China remains the dominant global producer of rare earth metals, followed by Brazil, India, Australia, and Russia. Despite its extensive natural resource base in oil, gas, uranium, and non-ferrous metals, Kazakhstan has yet to prioritize rare-earth extraction. However, international interest in Kazakhstan’s deposits is growing. France, Germany, and South Korea have already initiated exploration projects in the country. Germany’s HMS Bergbau AG, in collaboration with Qazaq Lithium, is developing lithium deposits in East Kazakhstan Oblast (EKO). Meanwhile, South Korea’s KIGAM has conducted exploration at the Bakennoye lithium deposit, leading to a memorandum of cooperation. The U.S. Embassy in Kazakhstan has also announced upcoming mining and processing projects for critical materials, such as lithium and titanium, involving American companies. President Tokayev has stated that Kazakhstan’s subsoil contains 50,000 to 100,000 tons of lithium, but substantial investment in exploration and development is required. Kazakhstan already holds an 11% share of the global titanium market, rising to more than 20% in the aerospace industry. Newly identified rare earth deposits were announced by the government in early 2025, totaling 2.6 million tons, including 400,000 tons of tungsten and 500,000 tons of niobium. Calls for Stronger State Control As international interest in Kazakhstan’s resources grows, concerns about foreign control over strategic assets have intensified. Financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov has warned that major international players, particularly from Russia, may seek to dominate Kazakhstan’s rare-earth sector. “Several large Russian companies already operate in Kazakhstan. It is crucial to ensure that control over these resources remains in the hands of the state,” he said. Rysmambetov has proposed the creation of a state agency for strategic assets or expanding the jurisdiction of existing institutions, such as the National Security Committee and the Ministry of Finance. He also suggested that sales of strategic resources should require oversight from the Security Council or Parliament. “We can expect attempts by foreign firms, particularly Russian and Chinese companies, to acquire major...

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Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Move and Implications for the West

Kazakhstan’s recent referendum approving the construction of its first nuclear power plant (NPP) is a watershed moment. More than a domestic policy decision, this move puts into relief Kazakhstan's strategy for positioning itself as a linchpin in the diversification of global energy supply chains, with the world's largest uranium reserves accounting for nearly 40% of the global supply and a key geographic location. The country's ambitions align with the broader resurgence of nuclear power as an indispensable component of a sustainable energy future, countering decades of stagnation in the West and challenging the dominance of Russia and China. The renewed attention on nuclear energy arises from a convergence of systemic and technological factors. Environmental pressures to reduce reliance on fossil fuels such as gas and coal have left energy producers searching for scalable, reliable alternatives. Renewable energy sources like wind and solar, while important, remain limited by intermittency and storage challenges. At the same time, safety concerns rooted in historical disasters — Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima — have been mitigated by advances in reactor technology. A growing public recognition of nuclear power's viability has resulted. In this context, Kazakhstan's entry into the nuclear power arena is logical. Enhancing its ability to integrate uranium extraction with downstream nuclear fuel production would underscore its potential to play a central role in addressing global energy needs. By fostering international partnerships, Kazakhstan can leverage its resource wealth to become a critical supplier for advanced economies looking to diversify their energy mix. Kazakhstan's move comes at a time of shifting geoeconomic dynamics in the nuclear energy sector. Over the past three decades, Russia and China have consolidated their dominance, exploiting the West’s inertia. Russia has used NPP construction as a geoeconomic tool, creating dependence in such countries as Turkey and Uzbekistan. China, meanwhile, has aggressively developed its domestic nuclear infrastructure while securing global uranium supplies, particularly through investments in Africa and Central Asia. By contrast, Western nations have lagged behind, plagued by fragmented project management, skilled labor shortages, and political resistance. Anti-nuclear movements, many of which gained momentum during the Cold War with Soviet backing, have continued to stymie development in Europe and North America. The resulting industrial inertia has left Western economies vulnerable, with insufficient capacity to meet rising energy demands or counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence. Kazakhstan's emergence offers the West a rare opportunity to reverse this trend. The country’s multi-vector diplomatic strategy, emphasizing balanced relations with global powers, makes it an ideal partner for rebalancing energy supply chains. Kazakhstan’s role in global energy extends beyond uranium. The country’s geological resources overlap with deposits of rare-earth elements (REEs), which are vital for advanced defense technologies, renewable energy systems, and high-tech manufacturing. The shared extraction technologies and logistical infrastructure for uranium and REEs present opportunities for integrated resource development. NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program could play a pivotal role in this regard. By incorporating rare-earth mining and supply chain security into NATO’s Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection (CEIP) framework, member states could...

Green Energy Climate Change Rare Earth Elements Energy Security COP29

Central Asia’s Increasing Profile in Global Climate Policy

Between 11 and 22 November, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan. In the run-up to this global event, Central Asian countries have been continuing their integration into the cooperative implementation of the global energy and environmental agenda. Such measures include, but are not limited to, commitments to reducing methane emissions, contributions to green supply chains, and — for Kazakhstan in particular — its nuclear policy based on multi-vector diplomacy. One may anticipate their especially enhanced presence in view of the fact that several them have strategic-partner relations with Azerbaijan, which is cooperating with them also in the implementation of the Trans-Caspian International Trade Corridor (TITR or "Middle Corridor"). The Central Asian states are using their implementation of global energy and environmental priorities as an instrument to integrate further into the international system. Following their participation at COP28 (30 November – 23 December 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates), all five of them signed the Global Methane Pledge to reduce methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030. They have also stepped up their contributions to green supply chains, signalling their ambitions to become more important players in global geoeconomics. At the same time, these initiatives also seek to promote domestic economic diversification. Kazakhstan, in particular, continues to play a central role with its multi-vector approach, notably in the nuclear energy sector, positioning itself at the intersection of sustainability and global energy security. Kazakhstan holds 12% of global uranium reserves. It became the world’s leading producer in 2009 and in 2022 accounted for 43% of global production. In Central Asia, Uzbekistan has a Rosatom-sponsored NPP project under way, as does Kyrgyzstan. Along with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in particular actively engaged in discussions on climate policy at COP28, acknowledging the need to balance their resource-rich economies with global sustainability goals. One of the key outcomes was the region's collective involvement in the Global Methane Pledge. Global environmental policy bodies have assessed that methane emissions are a significant concern for global climate policy. The effect of this assessment will be to load still greater financial burdens on oil and gas companies by making development of hydrocarbon deposits, and the transmission of hydrocarbon resources to market, more expensive. Kazakhstan’s commitment to cutting methane emissions by 30% by 2030 exemplifies this shift, signalling a readiness to reform domestic industries in line with global climate targets. Turkmenistan has the highest methane emissions intensity in the region, but challenges remain in terms of monitoring and implementation. Uzbekistan’s leadership was also highlighted at COP28. The country’s ambitious plans to scale up solar and wind energy by 2030 align with broader regional goals of reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. This is Tashkent's (and the region's) way of enhancing their profile as "good global citizens" as policy decisions by political bodies at the international level increasingly emphasize decarbonization. Uzbekistan has made strides in "green supply chains" by focusing on the renewable energy sector...

Energy Industry Uranium Bilateral Cooperation Rare Earth Elements Partnership International Relations

Kazakhstan and Tajikistan to Cooperate Over Rare-Earth Metals

Kazakhstan’s national atomic company, Kazatomprom, the world's largest producer of uranium, has announced a new strategic partnership with Tajikistan’s TajRedMet (Tajik Rare Metals) in the mining and processing of uranium and rare and rare-earth metals. According to the parties' agreement, the companies will collaborate in exploring, mining, and processing uranium and other rare and rare-earth metals, conducting research and development work, introducing innovative technologies, and training personnel. Meirzhan Yussupov, CEO of Kazatomprom, commented: “This step is of great importance for strengthening the partnership between our companies. Although it is too early to talk about specific results, we are focused on promising joint projects in the uranium industry and rare and rare-earth metals, which can significantly benefit Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.” As part of the agreement, TajRedMet representatives will soon visit Kazakhstan to inspect Kazatomprom's production facilities and assess the potential for further cooperation in more detail. According to an IAEA research paper, Tajikistan has significant mineral resources awaiting development, including rare metals, earth elements, and uranium. Several countries have expressed interest in the development of Tajikistan’s uranium resources. Russia was considering assisting Tajikistan in developing its uranium resources, as well as assisting in geological prospecting, with the aim of involvement in the subsequent extraction and possible processing of uranium. China’s Guangdong Corporation has also expressed an interest in participating in projects to develop Tajik uranium deposits. The Tajik government has also agreed to allow Indian companies to explore for uranium mineralization. In his address to parliament in December 2023, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon ordered the government to focus on mining lithium, tungsten, nickel, and antimony, and develop a program for processing these metals domestically into finished products.

Investments Rare Earth Elements Uranium Economy Kumtor Export/Import Legislation Issyk-Kul Energy Mining Environmental Awareness

Kyrgyzstan Lifts Ban on Mining of Uranium and Thorium

Deputies of the Kyrgyz Parliament have approved a bill lifting the ban on mining uranium and thorium by 69 votes in favor to three against. Parliamentarians are confident that the legislative changes will bring significant economic dividends to the country. The law banning uranium and thorium mining was passed in 2019. At that time, authorities wanted to sell the license to develop a deposit, but faced a significant pushback from residents who feared the project could harm the environment and damage the water table. The result was a complete ban on the entire territory of the Republic. In the Issyk-Kul region of Kyrgyzstan alone, 150,000 cubic meters of radioactive waste were accumulated from uranium mining in the last century. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the country has 92 burial sites, with 23 tailing dumps containing uranium elements. Kyrgyzstan's total volume of poisonous and hazardous substances stands at 2.9 million cubic meters. The notes behind the new bill indicate that alternative sources of income are needed due to severe economic impacts over recent years. However, these activities must strictly comply with environmental norms and standards in uranium and thorium mining. Speaking in parliament, Minister of Natural Resources, Environment, and Technical Supervision, Melis Turganbayev assured deputies that the bill's passage would not harm the environment or the health of Kyrgyz citizens. “For uranium mining to be profitable, a deposit needs 40-50 tons. Kyrgyzstan lacks such reserves. There are occurrences from 0.01 to 0.08% in 83 locations. Our goal is not the uranium, but the associated metals,” Turganbayev said. Authorities plan to mine titanomagnetite, which is accompanied by uranium and thorium. Both elements will be processed at the Kara-Balta Combine in Chui Oblast. Thorium will be stored, while uranium will be sold to other states. Iskhak Masaliyev, one of the three deputies who voted against the bill, reminded his colleagues of discussions in the early 2000s on ecology. However, only now has it been possible to begin to eliminate harmful waste. Doctor of Geological and Mineral Sciences, academician Rozalia Jenchuraeva told The Times of Central Asia that the 2019 law banning mining was “a big folly” as it suspended all waste activities and impacted jobs, leaving hazardous materials lying no more than 20 meters deep are slowly contaminating the soil and water. “If they pull it all out, it will be wonderful. It will clean up the land. This is work for the Kara-Balta Combine. I think the government has decided to develop Kyzyl-Ompol, which is the right thing to do,” Jenchuraeva said. Jenchuraeva believes that Kyrgyzstan has qualified personnel who have previously worked at uranium sites, know how to mine uranium and thorium, and can develop the deposits using their expertise and resources. Earlier, President Japarov met with residents near the Kyzyl-Ompol deposit. “The development of Kyzyl-Ompol will create over a thousand jobs. This mine will become the second Kumtor (gold deposit). The local budget will cease to be subsidized, and the people will get richer,” the president said. Kyzyl-Ompol is...