Kyrgyzstan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Excise Tax Revenues

Alcohol and Tobacco Lead Kyrgyzstan’s Excise Tax Revenues

Alcohol and tobacco products continue to be the primary sources of excise tax revenue for Kyrgyzstan’s state budget, according to the Ministry of Finance’s final report on budget revenues for the first 11 months of 2025. The report highlights excise taxes as one of the most stable and predictable sources of state income. From January through November 2025, total excise tax revenues exceeded $222 million. Alcohol producers remain the top contributors. During the reporting period, they transferred $38 million to the budget. Vodka producers accounted for the largest share at $25.5 million, while breweries contributed approximately $9.4 million. Producers of brandy, wine, and other alcoholic beverages paid significantly less. As a result, the alcohol sector continues to lead all industries in excise tax contributions. Despite reduced domestic production, tobacco companies dominate excise revenues from imports. In the same period, excise taxes on tobacco products imported from Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries brought in $101 million, with an additional $4.4 million from imports originating outside the EAEU. Revenue is no longer limited to traditional cigarettes. The report notes contributions from heated tobacco products and electronic cigarettes. While their current share remains modest, steady annual growth in excise payments for these categories points to shifting consumer habits. Kyrgyz authorities consider excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco not only a fiscal mechanism, but also a tool of social policy. Gradual increases in tax rates are intended to simultaneously boost revenue and, according to government projections, reduce consumption of harmful products. The state's role in the alcohol sector warrants particular attention. In early 2023, the country’s largest alcohol producer, Ayu, along with its distilleries and vodka factories, was voluntarily transferred to state ownership. Since then, smaller industry players have voiced concern that the government may incrementally tighten its grip on the sector and effectively establish a monopoly. Overall, the data confirm that so-called “harmful” goods, alcohol and tobacco, remain the most lucrative sources of excise tax revenue for the Kyrgyz budget.

Kurultai

Japarov Outlines Development Priorities at Fourth People’s Kurultai

Kyrgyzstan’s fourth People’s Kurultai, a national forum for direct dialogue between citizens and state leadership, was held in Bishkek on December 25-26. Addressing delegates, President Sadyr Japarov outlined the government's economic, social, and environmental priorities for the coming years. Sustained Economic Growth Japarov described the past three years as a period of strong economic performance, with average annual GDP growth of 9.8%. Real GDP grew by 10.2% in the first 11 months of 2025. GDP per capita in 2024 reached approximately $2,513. Unemployment dropped to 3.7%, while the poverty rate declined from 29.8% to 25.7% year-on-year. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have emerged as the backbone of the economy, with their contribution to GDP rising from 42.6% to 51.7% during the first nine months of 2025. National Development Program Through 2030 Japarov presented the government’s National Development Program through 2030, which is centered on four key pillars: industrialization, transformation into a regional transport and logistics hub, agricultural and tourism development, and expansion of green energy. The industrialization strategy includes the creation of industrial and technology zones and the construction of new production facilities to double industrial output by 2030. Large-scale investments in railways, highways, logistics centers, and warehouses are expected to bolster Kyrgyzstan’s role as a regional transit corridor. Tourism is also a major focus. Japarov emphasized efforts to modernize the sector in line with international standards, citing the construction of new hotels, roads, airports, tourist routes, and recreational infrastructure. By 2030, the tourism sector is projected to contribute 7% to GDP. Agricultural Development and Food Security With nearly 58% of the population living in rural areas, agriculture remains a strategic priority. Japarov stated that Kyrgyzstan is currently self-sufficient in six of nine key food products, milk, potatoes, vegetables, meat, eggs, and sugar. Agricultural reform centers on the development of agro-industrial clusters that bring together farmers, processors, logistics providers, and financial institutions to create integrated value chains. The goal is to shift from raw-material exports toward higher-value-added production. Climate Change and Water Resources Japarov also warned of worsening climate-related challenges, particularly declining water resources. Over the past 70 years, Kyrgyzstan has lost around 16% of its glacier area, endangering river flows, irrigation systems, and hydropower production. Lake Issyk-Kul is of particular concern. Since the mid-19th century, the lake’s water level has dropped by nearly 14 meters. The number of rivers feeding into the lake has declined from more than 100 to approximately 30-35. The president cautioned that continued degradation could have serious environmental and socioeconomic consequences. Water scarcity, he noted, also threatens food security, with 95% of national water consumption tied to agriculture. He called for more efficient irrigation, glacier protection, and expanded reforestation efforts. From Social Spending to Development Focus Japarov’s remarks were echoed by Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev, who addressed parliament a day earlier. Kasymaliev stated that the state has shifted from a “social economy” to a “development economy.” In 2025, 35% of government spending was allocated to the production sector, compared to 23%...

Logistics

U.S. Logistics Companies Look to Kyrgyzstan for Talent and Digital Solutions

Kyrgyzstan recently hosted CABXPO-2025, an international business and logistics forum that highlighted the country’s growing role as a point of interaction between Central Asia and global logistics markets. Held with the participation of the High-Tech Park, the forum brought together more than 500 companies from across the region. The Park, operational for over a decade, has become a key pillar of Kyrgyzstan’s expanding digital economy. One of the most notable aspects of CABXPO-2025 was the presence of senior executives and owners from major American freight companies. Their visit to Bishkek provided a platform for exchanging industry expertise, recruiting talent, exploring digital logistics solutions, and attracting Kyrgyz dispatchers to work with the United States freight market. According to Chubak Temirov, Deputy Director of the High-Tech Park, the forum stood out for its inclusion of investors from Silicon Valley, who expressed interest in identifying promising IT startups in Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian countries. Nevertheless, a large portion of attendees represented transport and logistics businesses, particularly those operating in the U.S. market. Temirov noted that long-haul truck driving remains one of the most in-demand professions among Kyrgyz labor migrants heading to the U.S. and Europe. In recent years, several Kyrgyz nationals have successfully established their own transport companies in the U.S., managing fleets of hundreds of trucks. These examples of social mobility have become an important source of motivation for younger generations. [caption id="attachment_41411" align="alignnone" width="300"] @TCA[/caption] At the expo, several American companies with Kyrgyz roots were actively recruiting. Many base their dispatch operations in Bishkek or Osh while managing freight movements across the U.S. Forum participants were able to enroll in two-month dispatcher training programs, with company representatives offering employment upon completion. Aidar Abitov, a representative of a U.S.-based freight carrier, told The Times of Central Asia that his company operates more than 600 trucks and continues to expand. While the physical transportation takes place in the U.S., the company’s dispatch and technical support operations are located in Bishkek. Employees undergo training in areas such as cargo booking, transport coordination, and working with brokers, becoming official members of the U.S. company without leaving Kyrgyzstan. English proficiency remains a key requirement. The company’s medium-term goal is to support a fleet of 1,000 trucks. The forum also drew attention to IT innovations from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. A team from Tashkent showcased real-time software for monitoring cargo and vehicle fleets. The system tracks truck locations, vehicle condition, and driver behavior, including signs of fatigue or drowsiness. According to the developers, their solutions are already in use by thousands of logistics companies in the U.S., managing tens of thousands of trucks. One of the developers, Azimjon Akhmadjonov, told The Times of Central Asia that participating in CABXPO was primarily an opportunity to exchange ideas and build professional networks. He highlighted the role of such events in connecting Kyrgyz and Uzbek professionals working in the United States and in helping form a cross-border community of experts. The Kyrgyz government has positioned forums such as CABXPO as...

Tokyo Declaration

Japan and Central Asia Enter a New Era of Strategic Partnership

On December 20, the first summit of Central Asian and Japanese leaders (CA+JAD) was held in Tokyo. The Tokyo Declaration, an ambitious roadmap for future cooperation, was adopted during the summit. It aims to transform relations between Japan and the five Central Asian countries into a deep and multifaceted strategic partnership. New Paths for the Region Japan intends to invest about $20 billion in business projects across Central Asia over the next five years. Priority areas for cooperation include environmental initiatives, and the transition to carbon neutrality in the energy sector. Additional areas include developing supply chains for key minerals, disaster risk reduction, and earthquake preparedness. Projects in agriculture and logistics, particularly improvements along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, were also discussed. Other topics covered included launching direct flights between Japan and Central Asia, advancing cooperation in digital technologies and artificial intelligence, and expanding scholarships and training programs. Attendees included Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi; Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev; Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov; Tajik President Emomali Rahmon; Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov; and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The second Central Asia-Japan summit is scheduled to take place in Kazakhstan, in line with the agreed English alphabetical rotation. Turkmenistan: Petrochemical Cooperation President Serdar Berdymuhamedov met with representatives of major Japanese corporations, including Sumitomo, Toyo Engineering, Muroosystems, Itochu, Argonavt, Mitsubishi, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, and Tokyo Boeki Eurasia. He cited several successful Japanese-led projects in Turkmenistan, such as waste processing plants, a wastewater treatment initiative for industrial reuse, PET plastic recycling, and e-waste processing to reduce hazardous materials. New memorandums were signed between Turkmen and Japanese entities. Key among them: an agreement involving the state-owned concern Turkmenhimiya, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Corporation, and Gap Inşaat on building a urea plant in the Balkan region with a capacity of 1.155 million tons per year. Turkmenhimiya also signed an agreement with Kawasaki Heavy Industries to extend maintenance for the Akhal gas-to-gasoline plant. In addition, a cooperation deal was reached with Toyo Engineering and Turkey’s Rönesans Endüstri for the second phase of the Kiyanly polymer plant. Other memoranda included partnerships between the Ministry of Automobile Transport of Turkmenistan and Sumitomo Corporation, TurkmenGas and Sumitomo Europe, and the Ministry of Communications and Mitsubishi Corporation Machinery, focusing on artificial intelligence and digital technologies. Agreements were also signed with media outlets, banks, and universities. Diplomatic ties between Japan and Turkmenistan were established in 1992. The Japanese Embassy opened in Ashgabat in 2005, and the Turkmen Embassy in Tokyo followed in 2013. Japan also plays a vital role in Turkmenistan’s export of polypropylene. Japanese firms Kawasaki and Sojits helped construct a fertilizer complex in the town of Mary, while Itochu and Day Nippon were involved in modernizing the national railway’s IT systems. Kyrgyzstan: Energy and Education Ties President Sadyr Japarov oversaw the signing of bilateral agreements spanning exports, energy, healthcare, education, tourism, agribusiness, and digital development. Agreements included a roadmap between Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy and MurooSystems for a small hydropower plant on the Chon-Kemin River and various education-related memorandums with...

Macroeconomic Review

EDB Forecasts Strong Economic Growth in 2026 for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

On December 18, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026-2028, reviewing recent economic developments and offering projections for its seven member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. According to the report, aggregate GDP growth across the EDB region is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2026. Kyrgyzstan (9.3%), Tajikistan (8.1%), Uzbekistan (6.8%), and Kazakhstan (5.5%) are expected to remain the region’s fastest-growing economies. After two years of rapid expansion, the region’s GDP growth is set to moderate to 1.9% in 2025, down from 4.5% in 2024, mainly due to a slowdown in Russia’s economy. Although lower oil prices are expected to reduce export revenues for energy exporters such as Kazakhstan and Russia, the impact on overall growth will be limited. Meanwhile, net oil importers, including Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, will benefit from improved terms of trade and reduced inflationary pressure. High global gold prices will support foreign exchange earnings for key regional exporters, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The report also notes a gradual decline in the U.S. dollar’s share in central bank reserves across the region, though its role in international settlements remains stable. Kazakhstan Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2026, supported by the implementation of the National Infrastructure Plan and the state program “Order for Investment,” which are expected to cushion the effects of lower oil prices. Growth in non-commodity exports will also play a stabilizing role. Inflation is forecast to decline to 9.7% by the end of 2026, after peaking early in the year due to a value-added tax (VAT) increase. The average tenge exchange rate is expected to be KZT 535 per U.S. dollar, underpinned by a high base interest rate and rising export revenues. Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan is forecast to lead the region in GDP growth at 9.3% in 2026, driven by higher investment in transport, energy, water infrastructure, and housing construction. Inflation is expected to ease to 8.3%, although further declines will be constrained by higher tariffs and excise taxes. The average exchange rate is projected at KGS 89.2 per U.S. dollar, supported by robust remittance inflows and high global gold prices, gold being the country’s main export commodity. Tajikistan Tajikistan is projected to maintain high GDP growth of 8.1% in 2026, fueled by capacity expansion in the energy and manufacturing sectors, along with rising prices for gold and non-ferrous metals. Inflation is expected to reach 4.5% by year-end. The somoni is expected to remain stable, with an average exchange rate of TJS 9.8 per U.S. dollar, supported by growth in exports and remittances. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.8% in 2026, sustained by strong investment activity and favorable gold prices. Inflation is projected to decline to 6.7%, helped by tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate. The average soum exchange rate is expected to be UZS 12,800 per U.S. dollar, supported by high remittances and increased metal exports.

China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway

Financing Agreement for China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Project Signed in Bishkek

On December 16, a loan agreement was signed in Bishkek to finance the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, an ambitious regional transport project intended to bolster connectivity across Central and South Asia. According to the Kyrgyz government, the agreement was concluded between China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Company LLC, a joint venture formed by the three participating countries and a syndicate of Chinese banks, including the China Development Bank and Eximbank. The CKU railway has been discussed for more than two decades, but repeatedly stalled over financing, route selection, and technical concerns. Momentum increased after 2022 as China sought alternative westbound transport corridors and Central Asian states looked to diversify trade routes and reduce reliance on existing transit pathways. The total cost of the railway project is estimated at $4.7 billion. Half of that amount, approximately $2.3 billion, will be provided as a 35-year loan from China to the joint project company, which will be responsible for repayment. The remaining $2.3 billion will be contributed to the company’s authorized capital: China will cover 51%, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will each provide 24.5%. The CKU railway is a strategically significant infrastructure initiative spanning 523 kilometers. Construction officially began on December 27, 2024, in Kyrgyzstan’s Jalal-Abad region. Once completed, the railway will link Kashgar in China with Torugart, Makmal, and Jalal-Abad in Kyrgyzstan, and continue on to Andijan in Uzbekistan. A cargo transshipment station and logistics hub are planned in Makmal. The railway is expected to handle up to 15 million tons of cargo annually. Despite its strategic appeal, the project has raised concerns about debt exposure, particularly for Kyrgyzstan, which already relies heavily on Chinese financing. Officials say the joint-venture structure and long loan maturity will limit fiscal risks, though critics argue projected cargo volumes will need to be met for the railway to be financially sustainable. Currently, neither Kyrgyzstan nor Uzbekistan has a direct rail link with China; the only such connection in Central Asia runs through Kazakhstan. For Uzbekistan, the railway is expected to shorten transit times to Chinese markets and expand export capacity for industrial and agricultural goods. Officials in Tashkent have argued that the CKU route could reduce delivery times by several days compared with existing rail corridors. The CKU railway is among the most technically complex projects in the region. It includes the construction of 50 bridges and 29 tunnels, totaling 120 kilometers in length, meaning roughly 40% of the route will consist of bridges and tunnels. The Kyrgyz section alone will cover 304 kilometers. On December 5, Chairman of the Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev visited the construction site of one of the tunnels in the Jalal-Abad region to inspect progress. According to government sources, work has begun on 18 of the 29 planned tunnels and 17 of the 50 bridges. The project currently involves 5,695 pieces of machinery and over 5,000 workers. For Kyrgyzstan, the CKU railway represents the largest infrastructure project in the country’s history. Authorities view the project as a chance to transform...