Kyrgyzstan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economic Growth

Kyrgyzstan Economic Growth: Government Targets 8% Annually

Kyrgyzstan has set a target of average annual real GDP growth of at least 8% and a 20% annual increase in foreign direct investment inflows through the end of 2030. Bishkek aims to achieve these goals by developing export-oriented industries, expanding transport routes, and attracting international capital. While recent international forecasts suggest growth could exceed 8% this year, sustaining that pace through 2030 remains a challenge. The government outlined the priorities at a meeting in Bishkek on October 21. Its plans include expanding production of export goods, modernizing trade and customs procedures, strengthening private property protections, and improving businesses' access to long-term financing. Positive Momentum Set to Continue The targets are set out in the National Development Program through 2030, adopted in June 2025. The program calls for nominal GDP to reach at least $30 billion and GDP per capita to rise to $4,500. International forecasts suggest Kyrgyzstan's economy will maintain strong growth in the near term, although a slowdown is expected. Following 11.1% growth in 2025, the IMF forecasts 9% growth in 2026 and 7% in 2027, while the World Bank projects 9.6% growth this year. However, both institutions have highlighted risks to the country's economic momentum, including a potential slowdown in re-export trade, weaker growth in Russia and China, rising energy prices, and tighter sanctions restrictions. To maintain rapid growth, Bishkek intends to support food processing, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, light manufacturing, machinery production, and mineral processing. The goal is to increase exports of domestically produced goods. Infrastructure-led Growth One of the country's largest infrastructure projects remains the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Construction began in December 2024, with completion scheduled for 2030. The project is estimated to cost $4.7 billion, including $2.3 billion in loans from Chinese banks. China holds a 51% stake in the joint project company, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan each own 24.5%. The railway is expected to give Kyrgyzstan its first direct rail link to China and provide Uzbekistan with an alternative route to the Chinese market. For Bishkek, it offers an opportunity to generate transit revenue and develop logistics centers. However, the route's commercial viability will depend on freight volumes, tariffs, and the efficiency of border crossings. Another major project is the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant, which Kyrgyzstan is advancing jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Additional electricity generation capacity is needed, among other purposes, to support industrial expansion. On October 14, Kyrgyzstan's ambassador to Switzerland presented both projects to potential investors in Geneva. Bishkek also plans to encourage state-owned companies to issue Eurobonds, expand long-term financing through state banks, and develop the Tamchy special financial and investment zone to attract international capital. Logistics, information technology, tourism, and financial services have been identified as promising sectors. Risks At the same time, Kyrgyzstan's close economic ties with Russia create additional risks for its banking sector and foreign trade. The IMF has warned that exposure to international sanctions and weaknesses in financial oversight could disrupt banking relationships and cross-border trade. A further challenge is ensuring that major infrastructure projects benefit the wider...

Start-ups

Maksim Stepanenko’s Path from Kyrgyzstan to Silicon Valley

Maksim Stepanenko’s career has taken him from Aydarken in southern Kyrgyzstan to Silicon Valley. After co-founding Operator, an artificial intelligence startup acquired by OpenAI, he chose to step away rather than join the buyer. Stepanenko told The Times of Central Asia that he is now taking time off and working on new projects. From Aydarken to MIT Stepanenko was born in Aydarken, in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken region. Before entering university, he represented the country at the International Physics Olympiad. He received an honorable mention in Singapore in 2006, a silver medal in Iran in 2007, and a bronze in Vietnam in 2008. His route to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was not immediate. After his first application was unsuccessful, he spent almost a year studying in Germany before entering MIT in 2009 to study computer science. While there, he worked as an undergraduate research assistant at the MIT Media Lab. Early Engineering Roles Stepanenko graduated in 2012. His early experience included two summer internships at Google and a role as one of the first software engineers at Locu, a startup founded by MIT graduates. Locu helped local businesses manage their online listings. A business could update its information once and distribute the changes across services including Yelp and Facebook. GoDaddy acquired the company in August 2013 for a reported $70 million. In 2014, Stepanenko joined cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase as employee number 21. Over five years, his work included Coinbase Commerce and the USDC stablecoin, as well as Coinbase Ventures. “I graduated in 2012 and moved to [San Francisco] to work here, at a different startup. Around 2013-2014, I started spending more and more time on crypto – Bitcoin Talk was the popular forum at the time. I was finding it more and more interesting. And then, at some point, I decided I wanted to explore working full-time in this space. At that time, there wasn't really any legitimate company in the space. Coinbase was the only company that was already relatively well known, at least here in Silicon Valley. So, I ended up joining Coinbase,” Stepanenko previously told Compound. Co-Founding Primer In 2019, On Deck’s Erik Torenberg introduced Stepanenko to Ryan Delk. The two co-founded Primer, an education startup offering online learning activities and, later, small in-person schools. [caption id="attachment_59010" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Ryan Delk (left) and Maksim Stepanenko (right)[/caption] Primer initially focused on homeschooling. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it developed online clubs where children could pursue shared interests and work together on projects. The company later allowed children to create and run their own clubs. It then developed microschools, combining small groups of students with in-person instruction and digital learning tools. The company’s history records expansion to Alabama in 2025 and Texas in 2026. Primer raised a $3.7 million seed round in 2020, led by Founders Fund. In April 2022, it announced a further $15 million round, led by Founders Fund and co-led by Khosla Ventures. Stepanenko left Primer in November 2022. “I decided to step away from the company after...

Foreign Trade

Kyrgyzstan Exports Recover After Sharp Fall in Gold Sales

Kyrgyzstan's exports have begun to recover after a sharp decline in 2025, when the value of its gold exports plunged by nearly three-quarters. In the first eight months of 2026, exports rose by nearly 20%. Even so, for every dollar earned from selling goods overseas, Kyrgyzstan spent more than four dollars on imports. According to a report by the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, exports fell by 41.2% in 2025 to $3 billion. Imports, meanwhile, continued to grow, reaching $13.7 billion. As a result, the country spent $10.6 billion more on foreign goods than it earned from selling its own products abroad. A year earlier, the gap stood at $7.3 billion. The main reason for the decline was a sharp drop in overseas sales of gold, one of Kyrgyzstan's principal sources of export revenue. Their value fell from approximately $2.5 billion in 2024 to $683 million in 2025. Exports of other goods also fell 11.2%. Trade was also affected by weaker demand from Russia and Kazakhstan, two major markets for Kyrgyz producers, as well as temporary restrictions on exports of certain goods, including scrap metal and livestock. Kyrgyzstan's trade is closely tied to neighboring countries. It belongs to the Eurasian Economic Union, alongside Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Armenia. Members trade with one another without standard customs duties on most goods. Russia and Kazakhstan remain the largest buyers of Kyrgyz products and, together with China, supply most imports. The imbalance is particularly pronounced in trade with China. Chinese goods account for more than a third of Kyrgyzstan's total imports, while China receives only around 5% of its exports. Uzbekistan also remains an important market for Kyrgyz products. Outside the region, Switzerland and the United Kingdom are significant destinations. The downturn continued in the first half of 2026, when exports fell another 11.1% compared with the same period a year earlier. By the end of August, however, the picture had changed. Figures for the first eight months showed exports rising 19.5% to $2.3 billion. Gold exports also rebounded sharply, reaching $770.6 million, more than in the whole of 2025. Over half of that amount was exported in August alone. Imports also increased, reaching $9.7 billion. The recovery in overseas sales has therefore not yet significantly narrowed the gap between exports and imports. A trade deficit does not mean Kyrgyzstan is losing the equivalent amount from its government budget. It measures the difference between the value of goods imported into the country and those sold abroad. Imports are paid for by businesses and consumers, with funds coming from various sources, including remittances from migrant workers and investment. Services have become one of the fastest-growing areas of Kyrgyzstan's international trade, providing another source of funds for imports. According to preliminary figures, in 2025 the country earned $3.55 billion from services exports, up 20% from the previous year. Revenue from foreign visitors rose 36.9% to $1.19 billion. In international statistics, this category includes travelers' spending on accommodation, food, shopping, and other services during...

Labor Migration

Kyrgyzstan Expands Foreign Worker Quotas While Citizens Work Abroad

Kyrgyzstan plans to allow up to 120,000 foreign nationals to work in the country in 2027, even as more than 700,000 of its own citizens have worked abroad this year. Although official estimates are lower than four years ago, the country remains heavily dependent on money sent home by migrant workers, particularly those in Russia. According to the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, Kyrgyzstan received approximately $3.5 billion in transfers from abroad in 2025, more than 90% of which came from Russia. The Ministry of Labor, Social Security, and Migration reported that 736,600 citizens had worked abroad so far in 2026, compared with 798,400 in 2025. The largest group, more than 472,000 people, was reported to be in Russia in March. Approximately 70,000 were working in Kazakhstan, 60,000 in the United States, 35,000 in Turkey, and 20,000 in Germany. In 2022, the authorities estimated that 1.118 million Kyrgyz citizens were working abroad, including more than one million in Russia. However, the figures do not establish exactly how many people have returned home and how many have moved to other countries for work. Russia has tightened its migration requirements and stepped up enforcement of residency regulations. In a report covering the second half of 2025, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) found that 94% of emigrants surveyed had left to find employment or better economic opportunities. Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev discussed these changes in labor migration during a parliamentary committee meeting on October 13. According to Kulubaev, more Kyrgyz citizens are choosing Turkey and the U.S. for employment, while demand for workers from Kyrgyzstan remains strong in South Korea and Japan. He said representatives from some European countries had offered to accept workers from Kyrgyzstan on the condition that the country accommodate migrants from Afghanistan and African nations. Kulubaev did not disclose which countries had made the offer, saying only that Bishkek rejected the proposal. There has been no public confirmation of the arrangement from the European participants in the negotiations. Within Kyrgyzstan, the unemployment rate fell from 5.8% in 2020 to 3.2% in 2025. The decline coincided with growth in construction, trade, and services, although employment figures alone do not show how much wages have increased or how many former migrants have found jobs at home. During a recent visit to the Batken region, President Sadyr Japarov again urged citizens working abroad to return home. The initial quota for foreign nationals arriving to work in Kyrgyzstan for 2025 was 25,000 people. The limit was raised to 100,000 for 2026. Expanding the quota allows businesses to recruit more employees from abroad, particularly for construction, manufacturing, and other industries where employers face staffing needs. According to the Ministry of Labor, by December 2025, approximately 18,900 Chinese, 11,700 Bangladeshis, and 8,300 Pakistanis had received work permits. An IOM study conducted in the first half of 2025 found a substantial presence of workers from Uzbekistan, approximately 10,800 people. The largest numbers of foreign workers covered by the survey were in the Jalal-Abad region,...

Growth Forecasts

Central Asia Economic Growth Expected to Slow in 2027

After several years of rapid expansion, Central Asian economies are expected to lose some momentum. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts that regional economic growth will slow from 5.8% in 2026 to 5.3% in 2027. However, growth in manufacturing and construction will not necessarily translate into comparable increases in household incomes. The forecast appears in the EBRD’s September report. The bank’s Central Asia figures also include Mongolia, so the regional growth rate should not be interpreted as an average for the five Central Asian countries alone. The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has published its own projections for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. They differ somewhat from the EBRD’s forecasts but also anticipate continued economic growth. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Maintain Strong Growth The EBRD expects the economies of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to grow by 7% in 2027, the highest rates projected for the five countries in the region. Kyrgyzstan has experienced a construction boom in recent years, driven by investment in roads, housing, and energy infrastructure. The service sector is also expanding. The country’s economy grew by 11.9% in the first half of 2026. However, rapid growth has been accompanied by rising food and fuel prices. The country's performance is closely tied to economic conditions in Russia, where a significant number of Kyrgyz migrant workers are employed and from which Kyrgyzstan imports the vast majority of its fuel. Changes in the Russian labor market can affect remittances and household spending in Kyrgyzstan. In Tajikistan, growth is supported by investment and exports, particularly precious metals and mineral resources. The economy expanded by 8.2% in the first half of 2026. Tajikistan also relies heavily on imported goods and equipment, with spending on imports exceeding export earnings. Remittances from migrant workers in Russia are an even more important source of household income for Tajiks than for their Kyrgyz neighbors, while rising fuel costs are putting additional pressure on family budgets. Kazakhstan Remains Dependent on Oil Exports For Central Asia’s largest economy, the EBRD forecasts growth of 4.5% in 2027, while the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development expects 5%. In 2026, Kazakhstan’s economy has been constrained by disruptions to oil production and exports. Problems arose at the Tengiz oil field and along the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) export route, through which a significant share of Kazakhstan’s oil reaches global markets via Russia. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s factories increased production. But even growth in industries outside the oil sector has yet to eliminate the country’s dependence on commodity exports. For international buyers, the reliability of supply routes is also important. Disruptions to the CPC can restrict Kazakhstan’s oil exports regardless of demand or global prices. The Times of Central Asia recently examined the challenges facing Kazakhstan’s oil logistics. Inflation is another concern. According to the EFSD, prices in Kazakhstan are expected to rise by approximately 9.5% by the end of 2026. This means economic expansion will not necessarily be accompanied by a noticeable improvement in household purchasing power. Uzbekistan’s Growth Driven by...

Railway Economics

Opinion: China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway: Turning Transit Into Local Benefits

At the eighth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan on October 8, 2026, Azerbaijan joined the forum as a full member after three years of participation as a guest of honor. President Ilham Aliyev stated that “Transport is one of the primary areas of cooperation between Central Asia and Azerbaijan”. Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for comprehensive infrastructure along the routes, with logistics hubs and service centers supporting production facilities and industrial zones to generate economic activity around the transport corridors. Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is among Uzbekistan’s transport priorities and is important for Kyrgyzstan, making this “integrated transport corridor development” approach particularly relevant. Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway (also known as the Kashgar-Torugart-Makmal-Jalal-Abad-Andijan railway) has been underway since December 2024. Public discussion of the project focuses mainly on shorter routes linking China and Central Asia with the Middle East and Europe, and on the line’s design carrying capacity. However, growth in transit traffic does not in itself guarantee economic benefits for the Naryn and Jalal-Abad regions of Kyrgyzstan or the Andijan region of Uzbekistan. Local economic impact depends on whether freight services and tariff policy allow small shippers to use the railway’s stations. Border delays can limit those benefits, as can a lack of storage and processing infrastructure nearby. What the Project Involves The intergovernmental agreement on the implementation of the project was signed by China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan on June 6, 2024. The joint project company was registered in July 2024, the investment agreement was signed on December 20, 2024, and construction officially began on December 27, 2024, in Jalal-Abad. According to the Ministry of Transport of Uzbekistan, the total length of the line is 532.53 km; 20 stations are planned, including two border stations, one transshipment station, four intermediate stations, and 13 passing loops. The Makmal transshipment station will be the transfer point between China’s 1,435 mm track gauge and the 1,520 mm gauge used in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. From Torugart to Makmal, the 165.5 km section will use the Chinese gauge. The 146.26 km section from Makmal to Jalal-Abad will use the wider gauge, connecting to the existing network toward Andijan. At Makmal, containers will be sorted and transferred between trains. Wagons can instead have their wheel assemblies changed to run on the other gauge. Freight trains will be assembled or split up at the station, which will also have facilities to weigh wagons and cargo. The parties estimate the cost of the project at USD 4.7 billion. Under the loan agreement signed on December 16, 2025, about USD 2.3 billion is provided by a syndicate of Chinese banks as a 35-year loan to the project company. Another USD 2.3 billion or so forms the project company’s charter capital. China holds 51% of the shares, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan each hold 24.5%. As of October 2026, construction is underway along the entire length of the route. In September 2026, the project company reported the completion of the first tunnel...