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ALMATY (TCA) — With income on oil sales down to a fraction of what they used to be until just two years ago, Kazakhstan seems desperate to fill the gap with increased income on other commodities it has in great quantities. This seems to be leading to a fresh wave of “resource nationalism” as the tendency to re-nationalise upstream assets is dubbed by western industrialists. In Kazakhstan, it was oil, in Kyrgyzstan gold – and now uranium is waiting for its turn. True: “commitments” have not been kept – but by whom? Continue reading
LONDON (TCA) — Bomb attack wreckage in Europe, the plight of Syrian war refugees, the fight against Daesh on the ground and Turkey’s ambivalent role in it and Central Asia’s brewing hotbeds – where do they all come together? The question looks obvious, but it seems amidst the political whirlwinds that everybody somehow involved has a different answer to it – often a contradictory and seldom a convincing one. Continue reading
OSH, Kyrgyzstan (TCA) — The article below, originally published by Stratfor, highlights the border dispute problem that since the collapse of the Soviet Union has systematically emerged between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which share the densely populated Ferghana Valley. The dispute, territorially end economically based, is still an ongoing factor of unrest and tense relations between the three countries. Here below is the analysis of Stratfor, entitled “Engineered Volatility in Kyrgyzstan”. Continue reading
OSH, Kyrgyzstan (TCA) — Russia’s sudden move to draw down its military presence in Syria has put some cards on the table regarding Central Asia’s exposure to Daesh terror in months if not years to come. As long as things stay as they are, the scenario will be limited to occasional threats demanding preventive measures to thwart “incidental” attacks. Ironically, the eventuality of Daesh being swept out of Syrian and Iraqi territory could drive tens of thousands of “fighters”, armed to the teeth and experienced in battle, to Afghanistan and northern Pakistan, capable of carrying out full-scale military campaigns towards the north. This will involve military capabilities that are not available in the states of the region. Continue reading
LONDON (TCA) — Lebanon, former Yugoslavia, Africa and Latin America where large-scale civil armed conflicts took place generate mobs and mobsters. While in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan such conflicts have been avoided, Tajikistan’s leading crime chiefs seem to have come very close indeed to sharing power with legitimate authorities while Uzbekistan seems to be balancing on the edge. Both post-Soviet republics appear to be in need of a national consolidation of public support for legitimacy, rather than letting criminal gangs control the economy first and possibly the state itself later. Continue reading
BISHKEK (TCA) — Here below is an article originally published by Stratfor, which analyzes Russia’s re-evaluation of its military and security positions across the former Soviet periphery, including Central Asia. Continue reading
