ASTANA (TCA) — Kazakhstan has embarked on a reform of the police, with plans to raise the salaries of police officers to reduce the level of corruption in their ranks. We are republishing this article on the issue, written by Almaz Kumenov, originally published by Eurasianet:
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BISHKEK (TCA) — The Publisher’s note: Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, Central Asia was the scene of intense geopolitical struggle and the Great Game between the British and Russian Empires, and later between the Soviet Union and the West, over Afghanistan and neighboring territories. Into the 21st century, Central Asia has become the area of a renewed geopolitical interest, dubbed the New Great Game, largely based on the region’s hydrocarbon and mineral wealth. On top of that, the region now is perhaps the most important node in the implementation of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative through which Beijing aims to get direct access to Western markets. Every week thousands of news appears in the world’s printed and online media and many of them may escape the attention of busy readers. At The Times of Central Asia, we strongly believe that more information can better contribute to peaceful development and better knowledge of this unique region. So we are presenting this Weekly Digest which compiles what other media have reported on Central Asia over the past week.
KAZAKHSTAN
A new look at Kazakhstan’s history builds bridges to the future
President Nazarbayev has proposed to identify and celebrate – both within Kazakhstan and across the world – the rich history of Kazakhstan and its people as well as the role played by the region in global civilisation
Dec 4 — “Winston Churchill is among those credited with the observation that it is the victors who write the history books. He was reminding us that the version of history with which we are most familiar has often been biased in favour of those nations or regions that have enjoyed not just military but also political and economic superiority. This explains why, for example, the extraordinary contribution of ancient Chinese or Islamic science and arts to global knowledge has, at least until recently, often been overlooked.” READ MORE: https://astanatimes.com/2018/12/a-new-look-at-kazakhstans-history-builds-bridges-to-the-future/
Kazakhstan’s Ever-Shrinking Political Arena
Kazakhstan’s political arena has little room for new parties or those who oppose the ruling elite
Dec 5 — “In late November, a court in southern Kazakhstan sentenced Mukhtar Ablyazov, a fugitive former banker and President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s most infamous foe, to life in prison after convicting him of a murder change. Of course, as with previous convictions of Ablyazov, the defendant was far from Kazakhstan’s grasp. A second trial in absentia and a second conviction may do little to materially affect Ablyazov, but in conjunction with other political news the news illustrates just how small and constrained Kazakhstan’s political arena is.” READ MORE: https://thediplomat.com/2018/12/kazakhstans-ever-shrinking-political-arena/
Ruhani Zhangyru: Nazarbayev’s Model
The Associate Professor of Lev Gumilyov Eurasian National University in Astana on the modernisation of national identity in Kazakhstan
Dec 6 — “The recent article by the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, titled “The Seven Facets of the Great Steppe”, which is in the continuation of his earlier article “Ruhani Zhangyru (Modernisation of Kazakhstan’s Identity): Future Course” published last year, deliberates upon civilisation’s aspects of the great steppe within the framework of history and its origin.” READ MORE: https://astanatimes.com/2018/12/ruhani-zhangyru-nazarbayevs-model/
Kazakhstan: Smells like election spirit
State power succession is becoming an even more relevant issue in Kazakhstan, and analysts say the country may have an early presidential election next spring
Dec 7 — “A little over a year ago, the president of Kazakhstan was instructing the government to hike electricity, heat and water bills. It seemed like a politically awkward proposal, but speaking before lawmakers last September, Nursultan Nazarbayev brushed off concerns, saying the measure would “not be such a big deal.” “We have the cheapest electricity in the whole post-Soviet space,” he said, arguing that allowing utility prices to rise gradually would attract foreign investors. Nazarbayev has since changed his tune.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/20583-kazakhstan-smells-like-election-spirit
KYRGYZSTAN
Kyrgyzstan: Communities stand fast in a valley of death
Many areas in Kyrgyzstan are prone to natural disasters, but local residents are often reluctant to relocate to a safer place
Dec 3 — “The Sulaimanov family say they are staying put. It took a lot of work to make the money needed to build their farmstead in Ayuu, a village set in a narrow valley in southern Kyrgyzstan. Officials are exasperated. In late April 2017, a mudslide swept over a group of houses in Ayuu, destroying everything in its wake and killing 24 people. For years the authorities had pleaded with residents to relocate, but to no avail.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/kyrgyzstan-communities-stand-fast-in-a-valley-of-death
Hopeless but happy: Azimjon Askarov and the discontents of Kyrgyzstan’s post-2010 order
A new memoir by Kyrgyzstan’s most prominent political prisoner takes readers back to the violence and impunity that followed the country’s 2010 revolution
Dec 5 — ““I am truly happy because today the cause of Azimjon Askarov has become a symbol of the great battle for freedom, freedom of thought and justice in Kyrgyzstan.” This is how the memoirs of Askarov, Kyrgyzstan’s most prominent political prisoner, end, offering at least some closure and inspiration for struggle next to fatalism in the face of hopelessness. But this only comes after a nightmarish journey through the suffering, grief and injustice that gripped the lives of the protagonist, his family and friends – and the thousands of other people affected by the 2010 conflict in southern Kyrgyzstan.” READ MORE: https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/valerian-stefanov/hopeless-but-happy-askarov-kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan’s former president, Roza Otunbayeva, discusses China, her successors, and regrets
The first woman to lead a Central Asian country discussed China, her successors’ rivalry, and regrets from her time in office
Dec 5 — “A former foreign minister and parliamentary deputy, Roza Otunbayeva helped push the unpopular Bakiyev family from power on a bloody day in April 2010. For the next 20 months, she was Kyrgyzstan’s interim leader. As she struggled to help Kyrgyzstan stand back on its feet, the country experienced the worst ethnic violence in a generation, the government seemed constantly on the verge of collapse, and heightened nationalist sentiments fueled protests almost daily outside her office.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/kyrgyzstans-former-president-roza-otunbayeva-discusses-china-her-successors-and-regrets
WHO FIGHTS BRIDE KIDNAPPING? MEET KYRGYZSTAN’S UNLIKELY SURVIVOR
Bride kidnapping is illegal by Kyrgyz law, Islamic law, and international law, but a widespread cultural acceptance of the practice remains in the country
Dec 6 — “With a bottle of vodka in hand, a Kyrgyzstani mother declares in earnest that they’ll be kidnapping a bride-to-be for her son in an hour or two. “We need her in the field,” she tells filmmaker Petr Lom, looking straight on. “The car is at the gate.” And so begins a bizarre scenario in which Lom gets a front-row seat to the big day, a kidnapping and marriage, and a glimpse at the ominous ever after.” READ MORE: https://www.ozy.com/rising-stars/who-fights-bride-kidnapping-meet-kyrgyzstans-unlikely-survivor/90579
TAJIKISTAN
Tajikistan: building a new health strategy for the next 10 years
WHO support in developing national health policies in Tajikistan has contributed to a shift in policy-making towards an evidence-based and outcome-oriented National Health Strategy for 2021–2030
Dec 4 — “The National Health Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2010–2020 (NHS 2020), approved by the Tajik government in 2010, became a milestone in the development of the health-care system in the current decade. The NHS 2020 strategy outlined the expected results, health sector system change, health sector financing responses, and the monitoring, evaluation and review frameworks, clearly demonstrating the will to implement, and orient the sector towards real outcomes.” READ MORE: http://www.euro.who.int/en/countries/tajikistan/news/news/2018/12/tajikistan-building-a-new-health-strategy-for-the-next-10-years
Collective Punishment: Payback Hellish For Family Members Of Bicyclist Attackers In Tajikistan
The attack on foreign cyclists this past summer also destroyed the lives of the families of the attackers, with some of them being dismissed from jobs, some having ended up behind bars, and others having become accustomed to frequent visits from the police
Dec 5 — “After more than three decades working as a teacher at her local school in southern Tajikistan, Nabotbegim Yusupova looked forward to a peaceful retirement spent helping out with her grandchildren. Instead, she is out of a job, ostracized by society, and heading to Russia in her mid-50s to start a new career as a migrant laborer.” READ MORE: https://www.rferl.org/a/collective-punishment-payback-hellish-for-family-members-of-bicyclist-attackers-in-tajikistan/29639597.html
Tajikistan: Secretive terror trial crushes hope for answers
The trial of the man accused of masterminding the deadly attack on foreign travelers looks designed to keep as much information as possible from reaching the public
Dec 5 — “A terrorist attack that left four foreign travelers dead earlier this year stunned Tajikistan. And yet, the subsequent trial of the man accused of masterminding the killing, which ran from October 23 to November 21, was a cursory affair – rushed and wholly hidden from public view. Untroubled by any explicit public calls for transparency from governments representing the victims, the Tajik authorities have in familiar manner fashioned a narrative laden with inconsistencies and self-serving claims.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/tajikistan-secretive-terror-trial-crushes-hope-for-answers
TURKMENISTAN
Analysis: TAPI And Other Turkmen Tales
The construction of the TAPI gas pipeline is the latest tale from Turkmenistan that has been cast into doubt, but it is far from the first
Dec 1 — “February 23 was a great day for Turkmenistan and its neighbor to the south, Afghanistan. Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov joined Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, and Indian Minister of State for External Affairs M.J. Akbar in the Turkmen border town of Serhetabat, where a segment of a pipeline coming from Turkmenistan was welded to a segment coming from Afghanistan.” READ MORE: https://www.rferl.org/a/tapi-turkmen-tales-pipeline-qishloq-ovozi-pannier/29632356.html
Turkmenistan: The president who revenue too little
In its ‘Akhal-Teke: A Turkmenistan Bulletin’, Eurasianet reviews the main news and events in the Central Asian country for the previous week
Dec 4 — “Turkmenistan’s rubber stamp legislature had an unusually busy session on December 1. It passed a budget for 2019 and, on the same day, ratified the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea that President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov and other Caspian Sea littoral heads of state signed on August 12. The budget forecast sees revenues contracting for a second year running.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/turkmenistan-the-president-who-revenue-too-little
President Berdymukhammedov issues a severe reprimand with the final warning to Deputy Prime Minister overseeing industry
As Turkmenistan’s economy experiences a crisis, the President blames ministers for the inability to improve the situation
Dec 5 — “On 4 December, in the course of the Cabinet session to sum up the performance for 11 months of the year, President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov issued a severe reprimand with the final warning to Kerim Durdymyradov, Deputy Prime Minister overseeing industry for “poor performance of job responsibilities and shortcomings at work”, the state information agency TDH reports.” READ MORE: https://en.hronikatm.com/2018/12/president-berdymukhammedov-issues-a-severe-reprimand-with-the-final-warning-to-deputy-prime-minister-overseeing-industry/
UZBEKISTAN
World Aids Day: Eradicating the stigma of HIV in Uzbekistan
The tale of the first person in Uzbekistan’s history who publicly came out as HIV-positive
Dec 1 — “Azima stood in front of a wooden board at a charity fair in Tashkent, Uzbekistan’s capital, tellingly named the Time of Miracles. The 16-year-old, dark-haired girl with azure blue eyes looked lost and uneasy. She knew that the event would change her life forever.” READ MORE: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/12/world-aids-day-eradicating-stigma-hiv-uzbekistan-181201103611375.html
Uzbekistan Under New Regime — from Isolation to Integration
Even as some social and economic problems persist, Uzbekistan has been undergoing major developments and transformation under the new regime of President Mirziyoev
Dec 2 — “Uzbekistan is the second largest and most populous state among the five Central Asian countries with a population exceeding 34 million. Shavkat Mirziyoev, taking over the presidency of Uzbekistan in 2016 after the demise of Islam Karimov, has undertaken the task of transformation of the country through reforms and changes in domestic and foreign policies discarding the former policy of repression and isolationism, which he could not do earlier as the Prime Minister.” READ MORE: http://www.mainstreamweekly.net/article8415.html
Uzbekistan’s €100m new ski resort already in trouble before it’s even open
A lack of electricity and roads in the area has put the brakes on the project of Amirsoy Mountain Resort which is set to cost over €100 million
Dec 6 — “Plans to open a multi-million-Euro ski resort in Uzbekistan are already in jeopardy as the country’s fragile infrastructure poses problems for organisers, despite the ski season being about to start. Amirsoy Mountain Resort, which advertises itself as a world-class all-season mountain resort on its website, was due to open the first gondola, chairlift and drag lift, as well as accommodation, later this month.” READ MORE: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/ski/articles/uzbekistan-ski-resort-set-to-open/
South African mining magnate a key figure in Uzbekistan tungsten play
Once-isolated Uzbekistan is opening up its economy to foreign investors
Dec 6 — “Johannesburg-born mining entrepreneur Brian Menell is backing a drive by Switzerland-based IFG Capital to develop “a cluster” of seven tungsten mines in Uzbekistan, Mining Journal can reveal. The disclosure comes at a time when analysts are looking forward to price stabilisation as dominant player China consolidates its domestic tungsten sector in a move that could more closely align…” READ MORE: https://www.mining-journal.com/base-metals/news/1352587/south-african-mining-magnate-key-figure-in-uzbekistan-tungsten-play
AFGHANISTAN
What are private security companies doing in Afghanistan?
There have been consistent calls for a bigger role for private security and military companies in the Afghan war
Dec 2 — “The Taliban has said it carried out an attack in Afghanistan on the base of the British security firm G4S. A British man was among five employees killed when gunmen stormed their compound. G4S, one of the world’s largest security groups, helps guard the area around the British embassy in Kabul. The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 contributed to a boom in the private security business.” READ MORE: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-46400647
Defying history, Moscow moves to defend Soviet war in Afghanistan
Russian lawmakers have approved a draft resolution that seeks to justify the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989
Dec 4 — “It has been said that Russia is a country with an unpredictable past, as every new government tries to rewrite the historical narrative for its political advantage. In this, President Vladimir Putin’s regime has been particularly active, launching a wholesale rehabilitation of the Soviet period early on.” READ MORE: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2018/12/04/defying-history-moscow-moves-defend-soviet-war-afghanistan/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7108825d3409
A U.S. Ambassador Reflects on Afghanistan
Ronald E. Neumann, US Ambassador to Afghanistan in 2005-2007, on the situation in the war-torn country
Dec 5 — “If one year ago I returned from a trip to Afghanistan more hopeful than previously, my return this time highlighted the immensity of the challenges, the dangers to our nation of retreat, and yet a few bright spots difficult to properly assess. Elections, security and peace negotiations are the themes that dominate Kabul discussions. Each is messy, with head snapping contradictions that make most simple bottom line assessments at least partially wrong.” READ MORE: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/us-ambassador-reflects-afghanistan-37887
Acceptance Is First Challenge For Afghanistan’s First Female In A Senior Security Post
In a rare case for Afghanistan, a young woman has been appointed for a senior security post
Dec 6 — “Hosna Jalil is well aware of the complexities of improving security and the rule of law in Afghanistan, a country that has been engulfed by nearly four decades of war. But since being appointed on December 5 to a senior post in the Interior Ministry, the 26-year-old Kabul native’s first challenge has simply been to gain acceptance.” READ MORE: https://www.rferl.org/a/acceptance-is-first-challenge-for-afghanistan-s-first-female-in-a-senior-security-post/29641506.html
WORLD
Terror threat turns inward on Central Asia
Central Asian countries may face a growing threat of terrorism, largely caused by the Islamic State’s shift in focus toward Afghanistan and the repressive policies of Central Asia’s authoritarian regimes
Dec 4 — “Central Asian countries’ reputation as exporters of radicalized extremists appears to be giving way to one marked by a growing threat of terrorism domestically. A number of incidents in Tajikistan over the last year highlight the problem of increasing militant activity that targets both foreign and national interests. Several factors—the Islamic State’s shift in focus toward Afghanistan following losses in Iraq and Syria; growing Chinese influence in Central Asia; and ongoing repression by authoritarian governments—point toward a more widespread threat, however, that is likely to affect the region as a whole.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/26-opinion-head/20568-terror-threat-turns-inward-on-central-asia
Regional cooperation in Central Asia: Relevance of world models
As countries of Central Asia are now building their new regional cooperation, they need effective and permanent institutional structures that would help to achieve this goal
Dec 6 — “Central Asian states are embarking on a new effort to build regional cooperation. In March 2019, the second yearly summit of Central Asian leaders will be held in Tashkent. Discussions are under way to provide structure to this newfound regionalism. Central Asians can build on a relatively rich experience of regional cooperation two decades ago, which culminated in the Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CACO). As they take this experience to new levels, they do not need to reinvent the wheel: an overview of other global models of regional cooperation shows how other states in similar situations – particularly Southeast Asian and Nordic countries – have managed to build long-term sustainable regionalism in difficult geopolitical circumstances.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/26-opinion-head/20579-regional-cooperation-in-central-asia-relevance-of-world-models
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KABUL (TCA) — Russia’s Foreign Ministry says the US and Russian diplomats have discussed the current situation in Afghanistan and prospects of building Russian-US interaction, Afghan broadcaster TOLOnews reported.
TCA
TASHKENT (TCA) — An award ceremony marking the completion of the Open Data Challenge 2018, a digital information competition organized by the OSCE Project Co-ordinator in Uzbekistan (PCUz) in co-operation with the Ministry for Development of Information Technology and Information of Uzbekistan, took place on December 7 in Tashkent.
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TASHKENT (TCA) — London on December 6 hosted Uzbekistan–British consultations with the participation of the Special Representative of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan for Afghanistan Ismatulla Irgashev and the Special Representative of the British Prime Minister for Afghanistan and Pakistan Gareth Bayley, the Jahon information agency reported.
EurasiaNet
ASTANA (TCA) — State power succession is becoming an even more relevant issue in Kazakhstan, and analysts say the country may have an early presidential election next spring. We are republishing this article on the issue, originally published by Eurasianet:
A little over a year ago, the president of Kazakhstan was instructing the government to hike electricity, heat and water bills.
It seemed like a politically awkward proposal, but speaking before lawmakers last September, Nursultan Nazarbayev brushed off concerns, saying the measure would “not be such a big deal.”
“We have the cheapest electricity in the whole post-Soviet space,” he said, arguing that allowing utility prices to rise gradually would attract foreign investors.
Nazarbayev has since changed his tune.
In a recent meeting with top security officials, the president grumbled volubly about his own policy.
“Public discussions about planned tariff [changes] are either not happening at all or just take place in a formal manner,” he fumed to the Security Council on November 7.
This and other populist messaging from Nazarbayev has analysts scratching their chins and wondering whether important political developments are around the corner.
Kazbek Beisebayev, a retired veteran diplomat, told Eurasianet that he believes the whiff of elections are in the air. He was particularly struck by the choice of the Security Council as a venue in which to discuss utility tariffs.
“These are everyday problems and not something to be dealt with at the level of the Security Council,” Beisebayev said.
The proliferation of consensus-seeking measures coming from the government – and Nazarbayev more specifically – suggest something is afoot. Beisebayev pointed to the planned increase from January of salaries for state employees, the hike to the minimum wage and the authorities’ efforts to tamp down food prices as other examples.
“Usually such measures are taken before parliamentary and presidential elections. The government uses such policies to instill a good mood about the current government,” Beisebayev said.
The consensus in some quarters is that early elections next year, possibly in spring, are likely. But it is not clear what the public might be asked to vote for.
According to the current schedule, elections for parliament’s lower house, the Majlis, are due in 2021, while Nazarbayev’s current five-year term expires in 2020.
Nazarbayev is the 10-ton elephant in the room of any political discussion in Kazakhstan. At the age of 78, the president, who has been ruling his country for more than a quarter-century, is reaching a degree of senescence that is sharpening ever-present thoughts of transition.
Political analyst Aidos Sarym told Eurasianet that the nation’s leadership is eager to get a sense of what lies on the horizon. Economic growth is, as ever, heavily dependent on oil prices, which saw a strong recovery earlier this year, only to slump deeply again in recent weeks.
Nazarbayev and his ruling Nur Otan party will always win crushing electoral victories, because they have all the levers of influence and machinery of public administration in their hands – what post-Soviet analysts euphemistically term “administrative resources” – but the danger is that polling station figures could fail to even remotely reflect public sentiment.
“If this goes on much further, then relying on the percentages ensured by administrative resources will be difficult,” Sarym said, referring to the belt-tightening forced by economic woes. “There are many nuances that could influence the mood of the electorate.”
For those inclined to read the tea leaves, Nazarbayev’s meeting on November 22 with Azat Peruashev, a leader of pocket opposition party Ak Zhol, offered a tantalizing clue. Beisebayev, the retired diplomat, has speculated that the president may have been vetting potential ersatz election rivals who would appear dignified, instead of the “clowns” seen in previous contests.
One potential issue is that Nazarbayev is running out of percentages. With every election, he has vacuumed up ever more extravagant shares of the vote. In 1999, he garnered a mere 81 percent of ballots cast. By 2005, this has gone up to 91 percent. In 2011, it was 95.5 percent. When it seemed he could not do any better, he bagged the 2015 vote with an almost-Saddam Hussein-style 97.8 percent of the vote.
As the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe vote monitoring arm noted ruefully, “voters were not offered a genuine choice between political alternatives.”
“The two opponents to the incumbent openly praised the president’s achievements,” the monitor’s report said.
In the absence of transparency and accountability, Kazakhstan’s pundits are often reduced to speculation and scrabbling for scuttlebutt.
Independent journalist Sergei Duvanov said his sources are telling him that presidential elections may occur in March.
“If the elections do happen, they will change the paradigm of power in Kazakhstan,” he said.
That assessment is based on Duvanov’s bold prediction that Nazarbayev is bracing to yield power to his eldest daughter, 55-year-old Senator Dariga Nazarbayeva.
“He only trusts Dariga. She is controllable, she listens to her father, so the risks to Nazarbayev are minimal,” Duvanov said.
Some cursory structural reforms implemented in the past year or so do lend weight to such guesswork.
In May, parliament passed a law enabling Nazarbayev to remain head of the Security Council for life. This provision was quickly approved by the constitutional court, enabling Nazarbayev to ease into the perpetual role on July 12, just days after his 78th birthday. In a parallel development, the Security Council was transformed from a purely consultative body into one with a certain degree of coordinating power over all state structures, including security agencies, ministries and local administrations.
“The transfer of power will be nominal, since Nazarbayev will de facto retain his authority. The issue is just in what form – by remaining in his post as president or as head of the Security Council,” Duvanov said, cleaving to his succession prognosis.
This exercise in musical chairs could ensure that Nazarbayev avoids the embarrassment of polling anything less than 97.8 percent. And that is a real danger.
According to the Almaty-based Strategia political research center, support among citizens for the president’s policies between 2005 and 2017 was stable at around 90 percent.
But as Strategia director Gulmira Ileuova told Eurasianet, figures from November showed a dramatic fall to 75 percent. Those would be enviable and even unimaginable figures for a leader in any credibly democratic country, but for Kazakhstan it looks alarming.
“In the past, there was no direct correlation between indicators of support for the president among the population and economic trends, since Nazarbayev was always perceived as the leader of the nation, and the public blamed his subordinates for various problems. This year, more and more people believe that it is the president that is directly responsible for social problems,” Ileuova said.
