DUSHANBE (TCA) — Human Rights Watch (HRW) has condemned prominent Tajik journalist Hairullo Mirsaidov’s financial-crimes conviction and 12-year prison sentence, RFE/RL reported.

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KABUL (TCA) — The United Nations says the number of civilians killed in Afghanistan has reached a record high in the first half of the year, despite last month’s cease-fire, RFE/RL reported.

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DUSHANBE (TCA) — Tajikistan’s lucrative motor fuel business, and its revenues, is largely controlled by a relative of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon. We are republishing this article on the issue, originally published by Eurasianet:

One of the most popular means to get around Tajikistan’s capital is the “three-somoni taxi,” named for the set price of the fare.

No more. It will be five-somoni taxis from now – the direct result of a recent dramatic spike in the cost of car fuel and an opaque fuel-import market dominated by a relative of the president.

The taxi business has been a lifeline for a huge number of Tajikistan’s unemployed, like Nozim Subhonov, 30. For the past year, Subhonov has been picking up a maximum of four people at a time in his Opel Vectra, charging 3 somoni ($0.32) to be carried along route number eight, a fixed path through Dushanbe.

“Because of the financial crisis I was fired from my last job, where I worked delivering groceries,” Subhonov, who provides for two children and his parents, told Eurasianet.

To save money, he converted his car to run on liquified gas, which costs less per unit traveled than petrol. Around 60 percent of drivers in Tajikistan use liquified gas to run their cars, according to the State Antimonopoly Service.

But the price of liquified gas has risen dramatically in recent weeks. After the middle of June, prices for gas in Dushanbe leapt by more than one-third, from 3.40 somoni per liter to around 4.90 somoni in mid-July. Petrol has followed suit, jumping from around 6.40 somoni to 8 somoni per liter.

Subhonov said this has forced drivers like him to hike their own prices.

“What is the point of me working if there is no profit for me in it?” he asked.

The impact has also been felt on travel between towns. Where a ride from Dushanbe to the country’s second city, Khujand, once cost around 80 somoni, now it is around 120 somoni. The rate of increase applies across the board.

According to official figures, around 85 percent of the 340 tons of liquified gas imported for motorists annually comes from Kazakhstan. The rest is from Russia.

Following the trail of fuel supplies is intensely complicated, however, as the business is opaque and malfeasance is said to abound.

In writing about the regional rise in prices for liquified gas, Argus, a publication that specializes in analyzing the global energy market, wrote in an emailed Russian-language bulletin dated June 20 that it had been caused by a slowdown of operations at the Kazakh-Chinese-run Zhanazhol gas processing plant near Aktobe in western Kazakhstan.

The price of gas at the Uzbek-Tajik border in June was recorded as rising by $140 per ton week-on-week, to $540, Argus reported in its bulletin without stating its source.

Those figures, which industry insiders have said may be set to grow further, are startling for a number of reasons.

The price at which bulk retailers of liquified gas in Kazakhstan, where Tajik traders source much of their fuel, are allowed to sell their product on the internal market is set in law at regular intervals. The current level is 38,700 tenge ($113) per ton. When it comes to selling to international buyers, negotiation is the name of the game.

Lawmakers in Kazakhstan have worried that this dynamic has created a strong incentive to export to nearby countries. But under changes to the rules set to go in place in Kazakhstan in January 2019, the bulk sale price of liquified gas will be allowed to float in line with market forces, reducing the incentive for export.

That could result in deficits and prices rising even further for consumers down the pike, in Tajikistan.

Even in the short term, the picture does not look reassuring.

A representative for a Tajikistan-based company dealing in the import and sale of hydrocarbon products told Eurasianet on condition of anonymity that the Zhanazhol plant’s suspension of deliveries to Tajikistan began on June 1 and is expected to end on July 15.

“Considering this situation, other Kazakh companies have sharply increased the cost of their exported gas. That is why the price has risen so sharply,” the source said.

Russia should be a competitive alternative given that the two countries have a standing agreement on the tariff-free trade of energy products, but in practice this appears to have little effect.

“Only a couple of Tajik companies and [Russia’s state-controlled] Gazpromneft can take advantage of this agreement,” the sale trading company source said.

More upward pressure was put on retail liquified gas prices by the rising cost of transportation. In April, Tajikistan’s national railway company increased the cost of carrying liquified gas and petrol into the northern Sughd region by around one-third. This revenue-raising move in effect penalizes those using the most direct route for importing fuel from places like Kazakhstan and Russia.

“The rise in cost of transportation, the tax burden and customs duties all have a negative effect on the price-formation of oil goods, and it is the consumer who suffers primarily,” the trading company representative said.

Market insiders expect the current volatility to diminish by the end of summer, but that it is unlikely that prices at the pump will return to former levels.

Tajikistan’s narrow and uncompetitive market is the elephant in the room. The fuel business is controlled for the large part by a company called Faroz, which belongs to Shamsullo Sohibov, a son-in-law of President Emomali Rahmon. The activities of this company have been subject of reporting by Eurasianet correspondents and, later, the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, or OCCRP.

But Faroz has denied it enjoys a near de facto monopoly. In a statement posted on Facebook on June 27, Faroz pointed out that there are 35 companies in Tajikistan that import and trade in fuel products.

And yet, as OCCRP has noted, Faroz in 2013 established a would-be lobbying entity called the Association of Oil and Liquefied Gas Importers. According to industry insiders cited by OCCRP, the lobby group actually acted as an intermediary with the authorities, so that only companies that somehow got into its good graces were granted the right to operate.

The cost of the now five-somoni taxis are just the tip of the iceberg.

Once the new fuel-prices play their way through the system, it will eventually lead to rises in the cost of basic staple goods, Alisher Safarov, an economist, told Eurasianet.

“Prices for groceries will go up, because you need transport to carry them around, and the cost of that has gone up. Any changes in the end will hit the consumer,” he said.

BISHKEK (TCA) — The Publisher’s note: Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, Central Asia was the scene of intense geopolitical struggle and the Great Game between the British and Russian Empires, and later between the Soviet Union and the West, over Afghanistan and neighboring territories. Into the 21st century, Central Asia has become the area of a renewed geopolitical interest, dubbed the New Great Game, largely based on the region’s hydrocarbon and mineral wealth. On top of that, the region now is perhaps the most important node in the implementation of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative through which Beijing aims to get direct access to Western markets. Every week thousands of news appears in the world’s printed and online media and many of them may escape the attention of busy readers. At The Times of Central Asia, we strongly believe that more information can better contribute to peaceful development and better knowledge of this unique region. So we are presenting this Weekly Digest which compiles what other media have reported on Central Asia over the past week.

KAZAKHSTAN

Chinese Investor Disappoints Kazakhstan’s National Oil Company

Kazakhstan’s Kazmunaigas will have to hurry to find other ways to get cash to cover its debts and expenses

July 9 — “China’s CEFC will not buy a majority stake in Kazmunaigas International (KMGI), owned by Kazakhstan’s state-owned oil and gas firm Kazmunaigas, a disappointing development for a deal more than two years in the making. CEFC and Kazmunaigas had first agreed to sell a 51 percent stake in its Romanian assets, owned by one of its subsidiaries, KMGI (formerly known as Rompetrol), in December 2015.” READ MORE: https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/chinese-investor-disappoints-kazakhstans-national-oil-company/

Kazakhstan’s Astana turns 20: A tale of two capitals

As Kazakhstan’s capital city has lavishly celebrated its 20th-birthday, some in Kazakhstan argue that the festivities were ‘a feast in time of plague’

July 10 — “The capital of Kazakhstan has just enjoyed a 20th-birthday blowout costing more than $55 million. July 6 was not just a national holiday to celebrate the anniversary of Astana’s elevation to capital status – it was also President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s 78th jubilee. This extravagant and highly personalized state-funded partying is provoking mixed sentiments.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/19981-kazakhstan-s-astana-turns-20-a-tale-of-two-capitals

Kazakh economic openness good for the country, good for global partners

Kazakhstan is pursuing a policy of encouraging outside investment and partnerships from various players — both in the East and West

July 11 — “Only a few years ago, it seemed that the argument of whether countries thrived best when they had economies open or partially closed to trade and investment was decided. Although there was still a vocal minority who doubted the benefits of removing barriers and focused on the draw-backs of globalisation, it had decreasing influence. Instead, we saw a hardening consensus – supported by the evidence of sustained periods of strong growth and shared prosperity – that open economies were the way forward.” READ MORE: https://astanatimes.com/2018/07/kazakh-economic-openness-good-for-the-country-good-for-global-partners/

Kazakhstan’s banks to gain access to Uzbekistan

Kazakhstan’s banks will be able to open subsidiaries in Uzbekistan or buy assets in existing lenders

July 11 — “The central banks of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have come together to agree on cooperation that could culminate in large Kazakh lenders entering the underexplored Uzbek market.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/s/kazakhstans-banks-to-gain-access-to-uzbekistan

KYRGYZSTAN

Envoy hopeful of pact with Qatar soon on hiring Kyrgyz nationals

About 500 Kyrgyz expatriates in Doha are serving in different sectors of Qatar’s economy today

July 8 — “Kyrgyzstan ambassador in Doha Nuran S Niyazaliev has expressed optimism that an agreement with Qatar on the employment of Kyrgyz citizens will be signed in the coming weeks. “I hope this forthcoming week we can sign it with the approval of both sides,” the envoy told Gulf Times on the sidelines of a seminar on Qatar’s Labour Law recently at the embassy.” READ MORE: http://www.gulf-times.com/story/598788/Envoy-hopeful-of-pact-with-Qatar-soon-on-hiring-Kyrgyz-nationals

Kyrgyzstan: Rescue helicopter crashes in mountains with tourists onboard

Security is a relevant issue for attracting more tourists to Kyrgyzstan

July 9 — “A military helicopter in Kyrgyzstan has crashed during a rescue of tourists trapped on the Khan Tengri mountain, injuring several people onboard. The accident occurred on the morning of July 9, when the Mi-8 craft was forced to make a rough landing in the area of the South Inylchek Glacier due to windy conditions.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/s/kyrgyzstan-rescue-helicopter-crashes-in-mountains-with-tourists-onboard

Idea of EEU common currency: more political, less economic

The introduction of a common currency in the EEU may become a strong blow to small economies like those of Kyrgyzstan

July 9 — “The Russian ruble should be made the currency of settlements in the Eurasian Economic Union, Board Chairman of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Andrey Belyaninov recently said at a conference of the Russian TV business channel RBC “Window of opportunities: Investments and new projects in Eurasia”. READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/26-opinion-head/19976-idea-of-eeu-common-currency-more-political-less-economic

How social media users in Kyrgyzstan are turned into “extremists”

In Kyrgyzstan, social media users are often persecuted for sharing their opinions online

July 12 — “Since the 2000s, social networks have been widely used both as platform for like-minded users and an instrument for spreading information and ideas. But the rapid dissemination of facts and opinions also results in an uncontrollable stream of information. As a result, we are witnessing an increasing number of posts with negative content – from hate speech to open fomentation of online conflicts on ethnic grounds.” READ MORE: https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/elnura-alkanova/how-social-media-users-in-kyrgyzstan-are-turned-into-extremists

TAJIKISTAN

Tajikistan Crackdown on IRPT an Excuse for Saudi-Incited Hostility toward Iran: Expert

Tajik religious and political expert explicates the reasons behind the Tajik government’s clampdown on Islamic movements and symbols, particularly its strong campaign against the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan

July 8 — “The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) has become the victim of an anti-Islamic campaign launched by the Dushanbe government in recent months whose real purpose is to counter Iran with the financial backing of Saudi Arabia, a Tajik political expert said.” READ MORE: https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2018/07/08/1771076/tajikistan-crackdown-on-irpt-an-excuse-for-saudi-incited-hostility-toward-iran-expert

How the War on Drugs Is Making Tajikistan More Authoritarian

Tajikistan is a major drug transit state, with 30 percent of Afghan opiates passing through en route to Russia and Europe

July 9 — “According to a recent study by a leading U.S. government oversight body, 17 years of U.S. counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan have yielded “negligible” results. Despite the United States spending nearly $8.6 billion to curb the production and sale of poppies since 2001, poppy cultivation hit an all-time high in 2017, with the trend showing few signs of slowing.” READ MORE: https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/how-the-war-on-drugs-is-making-tajikistan-more-authoritarian/

Tajikistan sentences journalist to 12 years in jail

Tajik journalist has been convicted for reporting on alleged corruption of government officials

July 11 — “A court in northern Tajikistan has sentenced a local journalist and comedian to 12 years in a high-security prison on embezzlement charges that supporters say were fabricated. The trial in Khujand city court of Khairullo Mirsaidov, who worked extensively with overseas donor organizations, closed on July 11 to widespread indifference among the international diplomatic community, which has long given up pressing Tajikistan on its human rights commitments.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/s/tajikistan-sentences-journalist-to-12-years-in-jail

TURKMENISTAN

Turkmenistan finds a novel solution to mass emigration

Authorities in crisis-hit Turkmenistan are so desperate to stem emigration that they are simply stopping their countrymen from getting on planes flying abroad

July 5 — “CITIZENS of Turkmenistan are definitely allowed to leave the country, its immigration service insisted in a statement in mid-April. The declaration came in response to reports that men under the age of 30 were being prevented from boarding international flights. But in recent weeks reports have begun emerging again of men as old as 40 not being allowed to travel abroad.” READ MORE: https://www.economist.com/asia/2018/07/05/turkmenistan-finds-a-novel-solution-to-mass-emigration

Turkmenistan: Keep the family close, and keep the population closer

In its ‘Akhal-Teke: A Turkmenistan Bulletin’, Eurasianet reviews the main news and events in the Central Asian country for the previous week

July 10 — “Unlike regular people in Turkmenistan, the ruling family is getting to do a lot of traveling these days. Serdar Berdymukhamedov, the president’s son and deputy foreign minister, had a particularly busy week.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/s/turkmenistan-keep-the-family-close-and-keep-the-population-closer

Turkmenistan’s economy—half empty or half full?

Although official statistics reports economic growth, the economy of Turkmenistan is experiencing a severe crisis, with the population suffering from periodic shortages of some staple food products

July 11 — “It is notoriously challenging to acquire accurate socio-economic data on a country as insulated as Turkmenistan. And the difficulty is further heightened by the fact that the autocratic government in Ashgabat consistently paints society in roseate terms, even as the Turkmenistani opposition scattered abroad relates much darker imagery. The gulf between these disparate portrayals is particularly noticeable in coverage of the country’s economy.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/19986-turkmenistan-s-economy-half-empty-or-half-full

UZBEKISTAN

The Doctor Will See You — As Soon As He’s Done Street-Cleaning

It is commonplace in Uzbekistan when medical workers participate in compulsory clean-up duty, a practice dating to the Soviet era

July 9 — “Patients of a state-run medical facility in a town in eastern Uzbekistan try to avoid Friday visits. That’s the day doctors and nurses in Quvasoy have different duties to tend to — sweeping the streets and cleaning up garbage.” READ MORE: https://www.rferl.org/a/the-doctor-will-see-you—-as-soon-as-he-s-done-street-cleaning/29353178.html

Uzbek Strip-Search Victim Says Police ‘Ruined My Life’

Police abuse is widespread in Uzbekistan, where police have long been criticized for mistreatment of detainees, as well as corruption

July 10 — “Humiliated by a police strip search that sparked public outrage, an Uzbek woman whose videotaped ordeal led to an outpouring of support would prefer to be left alone.” READ MORE: https://www.rferl.org/a/uzbekistan-strip-search-victim-says-police-ruined-my-life-/29355669.html

Uzbekistan: Hizb ut-Tahrir trial ends with prison term, suspended sentences

Rights activists say the Uzbek authorities have failed an important test on religious freedoms

July 10 — “A court in Uzbekistan’s capital has convicted five people for membership in the banned Islamic group Hizb ut-Tahrir. The trial, which ended on July 9, had been seen as a test of how the government’s stance against non-mainstream Muslims is evolving against a backdrop of slow political reforms. Rights activists argue the Tashkent court’s decision shows little progress has been made.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/s/uzbekistan-hizb-ut-tahrir-trial-ends-with-prison-term-suspended-sentences

Uzbekistan and Russia reach agreement on construction of new nuclear power plant

Uzbekistan, which is heavily dependent on fossil fuel in electricity generation, plans to build its first nuclear power plant to solve its power deficit problems.

July 12 — “A series of meetings since late December 2017 between officials from Uzbekistan and ROSATOM, the Russian state nuclear energy corporation, suggests that both sides have reached an agreement to build a two-reactor nuclear power plant (NPP) in this Central Asian republic.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/19991-uzbekistan-and-russia-reach-agreement-on-construction-of-new-nuclear-power-plant

AFGHANISTAN

It Still Doesn’t Get Worse Than Afghanistan

Driving the Taliban from power was the easy part, but replacing them with a modern, Western-style constitution and corresponding set of political institutions was a fanciful objective, analyst says

July 9 — “What’s the dumbest aspect of contemporary U.S. foreign and defense policy? There’s no shortage of worthy candidates: the fruitless pursuit of strategic missile defense, which has cost more than $200 billion since the 1980s but still can’t provide convincing protection against even a nuclear pipsqueak like North Korea; President Donald Trump’s foolish flirtation with a global trade war, and especially his transparently comical claim that imports from Canada” READ MORE: https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/09/it-still-doesnt-get-worse-than-afghanistan/

As Afghanistan’s Water Crisis Escalates, More Effective Water Governance Could Bolster Regional Stability

Reliable water management is a critical factor for any improvements in Afghanistan, as 80 percent of the nation depends upon agriculture for their livelihoods

July 11 — “ “Kabul be zar basha be barf ne!” This ancient proverb—“May Kabul be without gold rather than snow”—refers to snowmelt from the Hindu Kush Mountains, a primary source of Afghanistan’s water supply. To recover from years of armed conflict, Afghanistan needs a stable water supply, but its sources are increasingly stressed by severe droughts.” READ MORE: https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2018/07/afghanistans-water-crisis-escalates-effective-water-governance-bolster-regional-stability/

Afghanistan: America’s Self-Made Failure

Afghanistan is today essentially the same failed state it was when the U.S. invaded it in October 2001, an observer believes

July 11 — “Depending on who you’re taking to, the war in Afghanistan has cost America a little more or a bit less than $1 trillion. It has lasted more than 17 years, and no clear end is in sight for it. What transpires today is not the original military campaign. The initial armed confrontation was anticlimactic and of short duration. This subsequent campaign is the second stage of the primary war.” READ MORE: https://www.newsmax.com/finance/nasirshansab/nasir-shansab-afghanistan-failure/2018/07/11/id/871173/

Afghanistan: Islamic State’s Radio Outreach

A radio station affiliated to the Islamic State (IS) continues propaganda broadcasts in an Afghan province and locals ask why it has not been shut down

July 12 — “A Nangarhar radio station affiliated to the Islamic State (IS) is continuing to broadcast daily calls for violence despite the Afghan government’s insistence that it is trying to close it down. The Khelafat Ghag station has been operating for the last three years, spreading propaganda to encourage residents of the eastern province, particular youngsters, to join IS groups and fight the government and its international allies.” READ MORE: https://iwpr.net/global-voices/afghanistan-islamic-states-radio-outreach

WORLD

Central Asia in 2018: What’s the Future of the C5+1?

The US needs to pay more attention to its relations with the strategically important region of Central Asia — both in political and economic spheres

July 11 — “The C5+1 format, a platform for dialogue and cooperation between the five Central Asian nations and the U.S., could gain new momentum after a series of high profile meetings in less than a year. However, how far this initiative can go will depend on the continuous involvement and interest of the parties involved, particularly Washington.” READ MORE: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/central-asia-in-2018-whats-the-future-of-the-c51/

Surveillance fears cloud China’s ‘Digital Silk Road’

Chinese companies are building cross-border communications networks and e-commerce links in countries involved in the Belt and Road initiative, but given the close links between these companies and China’s government, those digital systems could be used for Beijing’s intelligence operations, experts warn

July 11 — “A major element of China’s continent-spanning Belt and Road Initiativehas nothing to do with roads, ports or power plants. Rather, the “Digital Silk Road” aims to construct communications networks across the developing world. Many fear Beijing could use those tools for electronic surveillance.” READ MORE: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/11/risks-of-chinas-digital-silk-road-surveillance-coercion.html

TASHKENT (TCA) — At one of its latest sessions, the International Press Club in Tashkent hosted a meeting with S. Frederick Starr, chairman of the Central Asia and Caucasus Institute (CACI) of the American Foreign Policy Council. The reason behind the meeting was the recent publication in the US of the book Frederick Starr and Svante Cornell edited, “Uzbekistan’s New Face”, dedicated to the new history of Uzbekistan. The presentation of the book took place on the eve of the first official visit of Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to the United States, the Jahon information agency reported.

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BISHKEK (TCA) — The OSCE Programme Office in Bishkek and United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) co-organized a seminar on Central Asia-Afghanistan policy partnership on July 12. The purpose of the event was an exchange of views on establishing policy partnerships at the expert-analytical level and deepening ties among researchers in the region.

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