Aging - The Times Of Central Asia

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Demographics

Kazakhstan’s Aging Population: Analysts Warn of Healthcare and Economic Risks

Kazakhstan is undergoing a rapid demographic shift as its population ages at an unprecedented pace. According to a recent study by Ranking.kz, the number of citizens aged 60 and above is growing by 3-4% annually. As of early 2025, Kazakhstan had 2.8 million residents over the age of 60, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year. Seniors now make up 13.9% of the population, up from 12% in 2020 and 9.8% in 2010. The average annual growth rate for this age group has remained steady at around 3.8% since 2010. The gender disparity is notable: 16.4% of women in Kazakhstan are over 60, compared to just 11.3% of men. This demographic shift is largely driven by increasing life expectancy. In 2024, life expectancy in Kazakhstan reached 75.44 years, up from 75.1 the previous year. Women live an average of 79.42 years, while men live 71.33. The only recent decline in life expectancy occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. The trend mirrors global developments. According to data from the IMF, UN, and WHO, global life expectancy has more than doubled over the past century from just 34 years in 1913 to 72 years by 2022 and continues to rise, even as fertility rates fall. When the UN and WHO were founded, children under 15 outnumbered people over 65 by seven to one. By 2050, the two groups are projected to be equal. The proportion of people aged 80 and older is expected to nearly quadruple, reaching 5% of the global population. “These shifts foreshadow a vast array of problems in healthcare, as well as in the social and economic spheres,” IMF analysts caution. Experts warn that aging will reshape Kazakhstan’s labor market, change consumption patterns, and place mounting pressure on the pension system. Like many other countries, Kazakhstan faces the challenge of balancing support for its growing elderly population with the need to sustain long-term economic development.

Family

Declining Birth Rates in Central Asia Tied to Crisis in Reproductive Freedom

Birth rates across Europe and Central Asia are falling sharply, accompanied by aging populations and the migration of young people in search of better opportunities. In response, many governments have introduced financial incentives to encourage childbirth. However, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) warns in its State of World Population 2025 report that these measures address symptoms, not causes. The real issue, the report contends, is a crisis of reproductive freedom. The report, compiled in partnership with the polling agency YouGov, surveyed over 14,000 people across 14 countries, including Germany and Hungary. Its findings highlight a deep disconnect between people’s reproductive intentions and their lived realities: 32% reported experiencing an unplanned pregnancy, while 23% said they were unable to have children when they wanted. Among respondents over the age of 50, nearly one-third (31%) reported having fewer children than they had hoped. Economic insecurity emerged as the leading barrier to planned parenthood. Financial hardship was cited by 39% of respondents, followed by job instability (21%), lack of suitable housing (19%), and concerns over war, pandemics, or climate change (19%). Relationship-related issues were also significant: 14% said they lacked a partner, while 10%, mostly women, said their partners did not contribute enough at home. Although Central Asia continues to report fertility rates above the global average, the region is not immune to this trend. The report notes a steady decline in birth rates across much of Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, which is experiencing a multi-year downturn despite having one of the region’s higher fertility rates. UNFPA emphasizes that these patterns reflect underlying socio-economic constraints, not shifting cultural values. Rather than framing the issue as one of declining birth rates, UNFPA urges a shift in perspective from “why aren’t people having more children?” to “why can’t people have the families they want?” Reproductive freedom, the report argues, means being able to decide freely and securely when, and how many children to have. This requires stable employment, access to quality healthcare and housing, and genuine gender equality. UNFPA calls on governments, particularly in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, to focus less on raising fertility rates and more on protecting individual rights. Key policy recommendations include greater investment in public health systems, affordable housing, decent work opportunities, and stronger protections against violence and discrimination. “The real crisis is that millions of people can’t build the families they want, not because they don’t want children, but because they can’t afford to have them,” the report states. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, four out of five Central Asian countries are currently experiencing declining fertility. The exception is Uzbekistan, where birth rates remain high and continue to climb. In 2023, Uzbekistan recorded a fertility rate of 3.4 children per woman, the highest in the region. It was followed by Tajikistan (3.1), Kazakhstan (3.0), and Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan (each at 2.7). Uzbekistan also posted the region’s highest number of births last year, approximately 962,000, representing a 14% increase compared to 2020. By contrast, Kazakhstan registered...

Aging Population

By 2050, Nearly One-Fifth of Kazakhstan’s Population Will Be Over 60

Kazakhstan is on the cusp of a significant demographic transition. A recent report by the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF), the agency overseeing the country’s pension system, projects that by 2050, 19% of Kazakhstan’s population will be of retirement or pre-retirement age. The study, published on the UAPF website, reveals that as of January 1, 2025, Kazakhstan's population had surpassed 20.3 million. Of this total, 42.8% — approximately 8.7 million people — were under the age of 25. Another 48% (around 9.7 million) were between 25 and 65, while 9.2%, or about 1.9 million people, were over 65 and currently classified as pensioners. Overall, individuals aged 60 and older now make up 13.9% of the total population. According to UAPF forecasts, the national population is expected to grow to 26.3 million by the end of 2050. However, this growth will be accompanied by an aging trend. “This means that by 2050, on average, one in five Kazakhs will be aged 60 or older,” the report notes. This shift mirrors a broader global pattern of aging populations and declining birth rates. Life expectancy in Kazakhstan, which had declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, has rebounded significantly. It rose from 70.23 years in 2021 to 75.44 years in 2024. At the same time, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has decreased from 3.32 children per woman in 2021 to 2.80 in 2024, with projections indicating a further drop to 2.42 by 2050. “With the gradual decline in birth rates and increased life expectancy, fewer people are entering the labor market, and the imbalance between pensioners and the working-age population continues to grow,” UAPF analysts stated. The report also predicts a neutral migration balance by 2050, meaning the number of people emigrating will roughly equal those immigrating for permanent residence. This marks a shift from earlier decades of net inward migration. Since 1991, over 1.15 million ethnic Kazakhs born abroad have moved to Kazakhstan permanently, according to data previously reported by The Times of Central Asia. As Kazakhstan confronts these demographic realities, policymakers will need to consider long-term strategies to ensure the sustainability of its pension system and the vitality of its labor force.

Demographics

Kyrgyzstan on the Threshold of an Aging Population: Government Develops Active Longevity Program

Kyrgyzstan is approaching a demographic milestone as the proportion of elderly citizens grows. In response to this shift, the Ministry of Labor, Social Security, and Migration has developed the State Program of Active Longevity for 2025-2030, which has been submitted for public discussion. Demographic Trends and Projections According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s population at the beginning of 2024 stood at 7.162 million. Of this, 407,800 citizens (5.7%) were aged 65 and older. The United Nations (UN) classification considers a country to be “on the threshold of old age” when this age group comprises between 4% and 7% of the population. Once it exceeds 7%, the country is categorized as having an aging population. Forecasts suggest that by 2030, Kyrgyzstan’s 65+ population will be close to this threshold, and by 2050, it may reach 19%, while the proportion of children is expected to decline from 33% to 22%. Challenges of an Aging Society As the population ages, Kyrgyzstan faces several challenges, including: Declining workforce: A shrinking number of working-age citizens may place economic strain on the labor market. Increased demographic burden: Fewer workers supporting a growing elderly population could impact productivity and economic growth. Rising social security and healthcare costs: Increased demand for pensions, medical services, and elderly care will require policy adjustments. Labor market adaptation: Strategies will be needed to integrate older workers and extend their economic participation. Strengthening intergenerational ties: Social policies may need to promote solidarity between younger and older generations. The State Program of Active Longevity The State Program of Active Longevity (2025-2030) aims to establish strategic policies to enhance the quality of life for older citizens. The document outlines three key focus areas: Encouraging Active Aging: Initiatives to promote employment, volunteering, and social engagement among older adults. Ensuring Health and Social Well-being: Expanding access to healthcare, preventive medicine, and social support services. Creating Conditions for a Dignified Life in Old Age: Enhancing pension security, housing, and accessibility infrastructure for elderly citizens. With Kyrgyzstan on the cusp of demographic aging, long-term planning and policy reforms will be essential to ensure social and economic stability in the years ahead.