By 2050, Nearly One-Fifth of Kazakhstan’s Population Will Be Over 60

Kazakhstan is on the cusp of a significant demographic transition. A recent report by the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF), the agency overseeing the country’s pension system, projects that by 2050, 19% of Kazakhstan’s population will be of retirement or pre-retirement age. The study, published on the UAPF website, reveals that as of January 1, 2025, Kazakhstan's population had surpassed 20.3 million. Of this total, 42.8% — approximately 8.7 million people — were under the age of 25. Another 48% (around 9.7 million) were between 25 and 65, while 9.2%, or about 1.9 million people, were over 65 and currently classified as pensioners. Overall, individuals aged 60 and older now make up 13.9% of the total population. According to UAPF forecasts, the national population is expected to grow to 26.3 million by the end of 2050. However, this growth will be accompanied by an aging trend. “This means that by 2050, on average, one in five Kazakhs will be aged 60 or older,” the report notes. This shift mirrors a broader global pattern of aging populations and declining birth rates. Life expectancy in Kazakhstan, which had declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, has rebounded significantly. It rose from 70.23 years in 2021 to 75.44 years in 2024. At the same time, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has decreased from 3.32 children per woman in 2021 to 2.80 in 2024, with projections indicating a further drop to 2.42 by 2050. “With the gradual decline in birth rates and increased life expectancy, fewer people are entering the labor market, and the imbalance between pensioners and the working-age population continues to grow,” UAPF analysts stated. The report also predicts a neutral migration balance by 2050, meaning the number of people emigrating will roughly equal those immigrating for permanent residence. This marks a shift from earlier decades of net inward migration. Since 1991, over 1.15 million ethnic Kazakhs born abroad have moved to Kazakhstan permanently, according to data previously reported by The Times of Central Asia. As Kazakhstan confronts these demographic realities, policymakers will need to consider long-term strategies to ensure the sustainability of its pension system and the vitality of its labor force.

Kyrgyzstan on the Threshold of an Aging Population: Government Develops Active Longevity Program

Kyrgyzstan is approaching a demographic milestone as the proportion of elderly citizens grows. In response to this shift, the Ministry of Labor, Social Security, and Migration has developed the State Program of Active Longevity for 2025-2030, which has been submitted for public discussion. Demographic Trends and Projections According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s population at the beginning of 2024 stood at 7.162 million. Of this, 407,800 citizens (5.7%) were aged 65 and older. The United Nations (UN) classification considers a country to be “on the threshold of old age” when this age group comprises between 4% and 7% of the population. Once it exceeds 7%, the country is categorized as having an aging population. Forecasts suggest that by 2030, Kyrgyzstan’s 65+ population will be close to this threshold, and by 2050, it may reach 19%, while the proportion of children is expected to decline from 33% to 22%. Challenges of an Aging Society As the population ages, Kyrgyzstan faces several challenges, including: Declining workforce: A shrinking number of working-age citizens may place economic strain on the labor market. Increased demographic burden: Fewer workers supporting a growing elderly population could impact productivity and economic growth. Rising social security and healthcare costs: Increased demand for pensions, medical services, and elderly care will require policy adjustments. Labor market adaptation: Strategies will be needed to integrate older workers and extend their economic participation. Strengthening intergenerational ties: Social policies may need to promote solidarity between younger and older generations. The State Program of Active Longevity The State Program of Active Longevity (2025-2030) aims to establish strategic policies to enhance the quality of life for older citizens. The document outlines three key focus areas: Encouraging Active Aging: Initiatives to promote employment, volunteering, and social engagement among older adults. Ensuring Health and Social Well-being: Expanding access to healthcare, preventive medicine, and social support services. Creating Conditions for a Dignified Life in Old Age: Enhancing pension security, housing, and accessibility infrastructure for elderly citizens. With Kyrgyzstan on the cusp of demographic aging, long-term planning and policy reforms will be essential to ensure social and economic stability in the years ahead.