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Water Security

Kazakhstan Seeds Clouds as Kyrgyzstan Questions Regional Impact

A small aircraft climbed out of Turkestan airport on July 10 with hygroscopic salt flares fixed beneath its wings. Operated by the United Arab Emirates’ National Center of Meteorology, it was searching for a cloud suitable for seeding. Pilot Ahmed Aljaberi described the aircraft as “specifically equipped with a cloud-seeding flare system.” But no suitable cloud appeared during the mission. Cloud seeding can try to draw more rain from an existing cloud, but it cannot make one from clear air. Kazakhstan launched the project in Turkestan on May 16, targeting more than 911,000 hectares of arable land in the country’s leading cotton-belt. The government puts the potential economic benefit at up to 35 billion tenge, roughly $75 million a year. The partnership gives Kazakhstan access to decades of Emirati experience in weather modification. The UAE program dates to the late 1980s, and Emirati specialists are training Kazakh meteorologists, pilots, engineers, and other staff. Kazakhstan’s government describes the Turkestan operation as the first project of its scale in the region, though weather modification in Central Asia has a longer history. Kochkunbek Bakirov, a geographer at Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences, has described Soviet-era research in the Karshi steppe, the Naryn basin, and over Issyk-Kul. Kazakhstan also trialed a different approach in Mangystau in 2021, using an ionization-based system promoted as a way to increase rainfall. Its developer claimed the equipment had begun to influence local moisture. The Mangystau system used ionization; the current program uses aircraft and hygroscopic salt flares. Before operations began, Kazhydromet analyzed data from 39 meteorological stations covering 2020 through 2024, selecting the Turkestan Region after studying atmospheric conditions and terrain. Flights only proceed when naturally formed cumulonimbus clouds with sufficient vertical development are present, with Kazhydromet monitoring satellite imagery, synoptic data, and cloud development before operations. The aircraft releases salt-based particles into suitable clouds. Kazakhstan’s Ecology Ministry lists sodium chloride, potassium chloride, and magnesium compounds among the reagents. In hygroscopic seeding, the particles encourage liquid droplets to collide and coalesce, which can improve precipitation efficiency in a suitable cloud. The cloud and its moisture must already exist. By July 13, crews had completed eleven operational flights, mainly over the Otyrar and Sozak districts. Officials were still analyzing the results of each operation; the number of flights does not show how much extra rain the project has produced. Kazakhstan’s launch materials cite a possible 10 to 20% increase in precipitation under favorable conditions. Results elsewhere vary widely. A 2024 review by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found estimates of 0 to 20% additional precipitation in the studies it examined. The GAO also found that effectiveness remains difficult to evaluate and that suitable clouds must be present. The evidence is much stronger for some cloud-seeding methods than for others. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the strongest recent causal evidence comes from wintertime glaciogenic seeding of orographic clouds, while Kazakhstan is using hygroscopic salts in convective clouds. Their large natural variability creates a weak signal-to-noise problem, making the added...

Trade Barriers

Kazakhstan Wheat Ban Raises Risk of Renewed Trade Spat With Russia

A truck crossing into Kazakhstan through a northern border post can be declared as carrying 18 tonnes of wheat while hauling as much as 40 tonnes. Grain Union analyst Evgeny Karabanov described that gap as part of the country’s problem with undeclared Russian grain. Astana’s answer is a six-month ban on most wheat imports from July 27. The measure may curb grey-market loads and support domestic farmers, but it also risks reopening a trade dispute with Russia and deepening the gap between the Eurasian Economic Union’s promises and daily commerce. Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov’s order covers wheat arriving by road, water, and rail from EAEU members and other countries. Poultry farms, grain processors, licensed elevators, and the state Food Contract Corporation may still import by rail. Wheat imported for poultry farms and grain processors cannot be resold inside Kazakhstan or abroad. Rail transit through Kazakhstan remains exempt. The government says the ban will support local producers and secure sales. Deputy Agriculture Minister Azat Sultanov said Kazakhstan has large carryover stocks that need storage. “The decision was taken to stimulate the domestic market,” he said in June. The order names every foreign supplier, but its commercial impact will fall mainly on Russia. In January, the Grain Union forecast about one million tonnes of wheat imports during the September 2025 to August 2026 marketing year. Karabanov said practically all of that grain would come from Russia. Cheap wheat crosses a long shared border into Kazakhstan’s main grain belt. That can lower costs for millers and poultry farms, but it also undercuts growers before they sell their harvest. The ban shifts that pressure rather than removing it. Baimurat Group CEO Daniyar Kuanshaliyev called the measure a “crude administrative intervention” that could raise raw-material prices. He argued that reduced competition for wheat could leave processors paying more while traders and exporters compete for the same domestic stocks. Karabanov takes a less alarmed view. “We generally oppose various bans and restrictions,” he said, but the rail exemptions should limit the number of businesses harmed. He said the clearest cost could be higher transport charges, since trucks are often cheaper than trains for journeys under 500 kilometres. Kazakhstan imposed a broad wheat ban in 2024 after Russian grain continued entering despite earlier controls. TCA’s reporting on the earlier grain dispute found that more than 1.1 million tonnes had arrived in six months before Astana tightened the rules. Russia then restricted Kazakh grain and other agricultural products, citing phytosanitary concerns. Exporters said the effects spread beyond the stated products. “Trucks loaded with those products are being turned away at the border,” Karabanov told Reuters in October 2024. The cycle continued in 2025. Russia reinstated restrictions on Kazakh wheat, flaxseed, and lentils from April, while allowing sealed rail transit. The Grain Union said Moscow had lifted one set of restrictions the previous day, then introduced a new ban with altered terms. That history does not prove Moscow will retaliate this time. Kazakhstan’s order is country-neutral and preserves supplies...

fuel shortages

Tajikistan Offers Farmers Subsidized Diesel as Fuel Shortages Deepen

Tajikistan’s Ministry of Agriculture says farmers will be able to purchase diesel at a subsidized price of approximately $1.20 per liter through the Agency for State Material Reserves as fuel shortages intensify across the country. Speaking at a press conference on July 9, First Deputy Agriculture Minister Nurali Asozoda acknowledged that fuel supplies remained under pressure throughout the region. Tajikistan imports most of its petroleum products and liquefied gas from Russia, leaving it vulnerable to disruptions in the Russian fuel market. According to Asozoda, the agency is selling diesel to agricultural producers for about $1.20 per liter, while AI-92 gasoline is available for approximately $0.99 per liter. Commercial filling stations are charging considerably more. Diesel prices have risen to around $1.40-1.66 per liter, while some stations have reported shortages. Asozoda added that the lower prices apply only to fuel distributed through the agency. He said reserve stocks were available in several regions and that agricultural producers could apply to buy fuel. In some cases, farms may also receive diesel on deferred-payment terms to allow them to complete the harvest. Deputy Agriculture Minister Bahrom Ahmadzada said the ministry had submitted proposals to the government in May to support farmers affected by the shortage. One proposal would establish dedicated fuel distribution points operated by the agency in rural districts. The initiative is currently under government review. Authorities are also seeking to diversify Tajikistan’s fuel imports. According to Ahmadzoda, negotiations are underway with Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Saudi Arabia. He said an agreement had already been reached to import 10,000 tons of fuel from Iraq, while discussions with Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia were also progressing. The ministry said it was monitoring the fuel situation daily in coordination with the agency and other government bodies. The shortage became more visible in early July, when several filling stations in Dushanbe ran out of diesel. Others limited sales to 20 liters per vehicle. The supply squeeze is particularly serious for agriculture. Farmers rely on diesel to harvest crops, transport produce, and prepare fields for the next planting season. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, fuel shortages are spreading across Central Asia. The pressure has affected gasoline and diesel supplies, along with jet fuel, natural gas, coal, and electricity planning. Seasonal fuel pressure is common, but this year’s shortages have appeared unusually early. They are closely linked to disruptions in Russia, the main fuel supplier for much of the region.

Sustainable Development

Kazakhstan and China to Establish Zero-Carbon Smart Agriculture Park in Atyrau

Kazakhstan’s Atyrau Oil and Gas University (AOGU) has signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Company Limited (AIKO) to cooperate in renewable energy, artificial intelligence, agriculture, and advanced technology transfer, as part of efforts to expand sustainable technologies in western Kazakhstan. The agreement includes plans to establish the AIKO-AOGU Zero-Carbon Smart Agriculture Demonstration Park at the university’s new campus in Atyrau, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The demonstration park is expected to serve as a scientific, educational, and technological platform for testing modern agricultural solutions tailored to the arid climate and limited water resources of the Atyrau region. According to the ministry, the facility will combine renewable energy systems, digital technologies, artificial intelligence, and innovative farming practices to improve efficiency and sustainability. The project will make extensive use of solar energy, AI-powered management systems, water-saving technologies, and automated agricultural solutions. It will also explore the development of aquaculture as an additional sustainable food production option. “The project aims to address several strategic objectives simultaneously,” Utebayev University Rector Gulzada Shakulikova said. “The first stage involves the creation of solar greenhouses and demonstration agricultural plots. Smart irrigation and fertigation systems, water reuse infrastructure, solar power plants and energy storage systems, and digital management and monitoring platforms will also be implemented.” She added that the partnership will also establish a joint AIKO-AOGU exhibition, education, and research center. The initiative is expected to create new opportunities for university researchers and students, allowing them to participate in international-level scientific projects and technology development. The agreement is part of the university’s efforts to develop green technologies and position Atyrau as a regional innovation hub in Central Asia for renewable energy and sustainable development. For Kazakhstan, the project also reflects broader efforts to diversify the economy and modernize agriculture through climate-resilient technologies amid growing concerns over water scarcity and environmental sustainability.

Locust Control

Kazakhstan and China Test Biological Locust Control Agent

Scientists from Kazakhstan and China have completed field trials of a new biological pesticide designed to combat Moroccan locust infestations, offering a possible lower-impact alternative to conventional chemical insecticides. The trials took place in Kazakhstan’s southern Turkestan Region and showed the effectiveness of a biocontrol agent based on the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture. The research was conducted as part of a joint international project focused on developing and demonstrating fungal technologies for preventing and controlling locust outbreaks in transboundary breeding areas. The project involved specialists from Kazakhstan’s Zhazken Zhiembayev Kazakh Research Institute of Plant Protection and Quarantine and researchers from the Institute of Plant Protection of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. Field testing was carried out on pastureland in the Kazygurt district of Turkestan Region, where researchers monitored the effect of the fungal preparation on populations of Moroccan locusts (Dociostaurus maroccanus), one of the most destructive agricultural pests in Central Asia. To assess effectiveness, treated insects were placed in field cages containing 20 individuals each. Control groups were established 24 hours after application, and researchers monitored mortality rates daily throughout the trial period. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the first signs of fungal infection appeared three days after treatment. Mortality rates reached 70-80% by the fifth day, and by the ninth day all locusts in the experimental groups had died. Moroccan locusts are considered among the most dangerous migratory pests in the region, capable of causing extensive damage to pastureland and agricultural crops. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture said the results highlight the potential of biological crop protection methods as part of broader efforts to reduce the environmental impact of agricultural pest control. Researchers said the successful trial demonstrated the effectiveness of entomopathogenic fungi in suppressing locust populations without the additional ecological risks associated with large-scale chemical spraying. The next phase of the project will involve wider testing in different climatic zones across Kazakhstan, as well as practical recommendations for incorporating the technology into national locust monitoring and control systems. Locust infestations remain a major agricultural challenge across Central Asia. Last year, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan agreed to expand regional cooperation on locust outbreaks. Kazakhstan has also pursued similar work with Russia and China to coordinate monitoring and pest-control measures across borders.

Irrigation

Kazakhstan Sets Irrigation Limits for Southern Regions and Reduces Water-Intensive Crops

Kazakhstan has introduced limits on irrigation water use in its southern regions and is reducing the cultivation of water-intensive crops as authorities seek to prevent shortages during the 2026 growing season. At a government meeting on May 12, Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov said reservoirs in the country’s southern regions had accumulated 26.2 billion cubic meters of water, 500 million cubic meters more than during the same period last year. Agriculture in Kazakhstan’s arid southern regions depends heavily on water collected during the spring snowmelt period, as well as water flowing from upstream Kyrgyzstan. To avoid irrigation shortages, the government established water-consumption limits for the main agricultural regions. The Turkestan region received a limit of 3.8 billion cubic meters, followed by the Kyzylorda region with 3.2 billion cubic meters, the Almaty region with 2.1 billion cubic meters, the Zhetisu region with 1.8 billion cubic meters, and the Zhambyl region with 900 million cubic meters. Authorities said all preparatory work for the irrigation season has been completed. This included mechanized cleaning of 1,840 kilometers of irrigation canals, reconstruction of 680 kilometers of irrigation networks, and repairs to 375 hydraulic facilities. To ensure stable water supplies through the canal system, 181 pumping units have been prepared, while an additional 92 pumps are expected to be purchased. Since the beginning of the year, Kazakhstan has also shifted the process of concluding water-supply contracts with farmers to an electronic format. The new digital system covers the entire water-supply cycle, including applications, contract execution, monitoring of actual water consumption, and payment processing. To date, more than 25,000 electronic contracts have been signed with farmers. “To increase transparency and strengthen operational control over water-resource management, satellite monitoring based on Earth remote sensing is being introduced across all five southern regions of the country. Since the beginning of the year, satellite monitoring has identified 39 cases of water withdrawal without contracts in the Turkestan region, where farmers illegally used approximately 790,000 cubic meters of water,” Nurzhigitov said. At the same government meeting, Deputy Agriculture Minister Azat Sultanov said Kazakhstan plans to sow crops on a total area of 23.8 million hectares this year, 180,000 hectares more than in 2025. Priority is being given to more profitable crops. The area under oilseed cultivation will exceed 4 million hectares, while forage crops will cover 3.3 million hectares. Kazakhstan is also continuing efforts to diversify agricultural production. The area planted with grain crops will be reduced by 127,000 hectares. As part of water-saving measures, the government is cutting back on water-intensive crops such as rice and cotton. Rice cultivation areas have been reduced by 20,200 hectares. At the same time, the area under drip-irrigated cotton has increased by 29,800 hectares, while cotton grown using traditional irrigation methods has been reduced by 12,000 hectares.