Opinion: Kazakhstan’s Human Capital Problem – How State Scholarships Are Building a Talent Pipeline for the West

Kazakhstan spends millions of dollars every year sending its brightest students to the world's best universities through two flagship programs: the Nazarbayev Intellectual Schools (NIS) and Bolashak. For NIS, the state invests millions with no public record of what becomes of its graduates once they enter foreign educational institutions. For Bolashak, the return figures look reassuring on paper, but only until one asks what happens the moment the obligation expires. For Kazakhstan’s economy, heavily reliant on oil and gas exports, human capital is what can bring the country to its goal of economic diversification through the ideas and skills that no natural resource can replicate. Students from Kazakhstan studying abroad, with access to the world’s best professors and cutting-edge technologies, are exactly the human capital the country cannot afford to lose. However, they are also the ones the government has been paying to send away without a sustainable retention strategy in place. Nazarbayev Intellectual Schools Founded in 2008, the Nazarbayev Intellectual Schools network offers an internationally recognized 12-year curriculum, directly compatible with many foreign university admissions systems. It also provides some of its students with grants covering the full cost of attendance. The state funds NIS generously: in 2023 alone, more than $37 million was invested into the network. The results are extraordinary: from 2010 to 2024, 654 students received offers from the top 100 universities in the world, with 32 of them from the Ivy League. However, which country these graduates end up in is a different question, and the available statistics offer no public answer to. One former NIS student, who received a full scholarship to study abroad, says, "I'm extremely grateful for all the resources that the NIS provided me with. However, after my graduation from the university, I will be moving to San Francisco to work as an AI engineer. It would take me at least seven years to make the same salary I'll be earning here in a year." Another says, "It is not only about the higher wages in the U.S. It’s about the opportunities and autonomy one gets. The research lab I've joined since graduation has far more funding and resources for the work I'm actually passionate about." Bolashak Program Unlike NIS, the Bolashak program, established in 1993 and widely regarded as one of the most generous scholarship programs in the world, does require its recipients to return. Graduates must work in Kazakhstan for up to four years or face financial penalties. On paper, this looks like a solution to the human capital problem. In practice, it is only a delay. While the state at least partially recovers its investment, it is developed markets that eventually inherit the talent. "After completing my requirement back home, I was able to get an American company to sponsor my visa," says one Bolashak recipient. "I moved to the U.S. shortly after." "I was offered a transfer to the European branch of my company," says another, one year after fulfilling their obligation. The Solution to the Brain...

Shifting Populations: The Struggle to Sustain Northern and Eastern Kazakhstan

While Kazakhstan's total population continues to increase, certain regions are facing declines driven by migration and demographic shifts. The birth rate within the nation has also reached its lowest ebb in eleven years, further exacerbating these changes. By 2050, Kazakhstan's population is projected to hit 26.3 million, with much of this growth concentrated in major cities. Currently, the population exceeds 20.2 million, with a net increase of 189,376 people in the first nine months of 2024. However, certain regions - North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Abay, and Zhetysu - are seeing decreases due to high migration rates and lower-than-average birth rates. In North Kazakhstan, where mortality rates surpass birth rates, numbers fell by 0.89% in the first six months of 2024 alone, with an overall drop of 23% in the past few years. The regions of North and East Kazakhstan have seen a steady decline in population over the past few decades, a trend influenced by a combination of economic, demographic, and policy-related factors. Historically reliant on industries such as mining, metallurgy, and agriculture, these areas faced severe economic disruption following independence, as state-run enterprises were privatized or shuttered. Many residents found themselves unemployed, with a lack of investment in modernizing industries and an uneven distribution of infrastructure development exacerbating the problem. Without a thriving job market, young professionals and skilled workers migrated in search of better opportunities, creating a brain drain and leaving behind an aging population. Today, insufficient economic diversification continues to make these regions less attractive to younger generations, who are drawn to cities like Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent, which offer employment opportunities, vibrant cultural scenes, and better education and healthcare. Internationally, the proximity of North Kazakhstan to Russia also resulted in substantial cross-border migration, with ethnic Russians and other Slavic minorities leaving Kazakhstan in large numbers, particularly in the years following independence. This trend was partly influenced by policies prioritizing the Kazakh language and identity, which made some minorities feel culturally marginalized or less confident in their long-term prospects in the country. During the Soviet era, regions like North Kazakhstan were agricultural powerhouses, thanks to programs like the Virgin Lands Campaign. However, the ecological degradation and economic mismanagement associated with these projects left lasting scars. Fertile land has become less productive, forcing many farmers to abandon their livelihoods. The decline of ecosystems due to overuse and climate change particularly affects East Kazakhstan, where poorly maintained infrastructure in rural areas has impacted resilience against environmental issues, further encouraging residents to leave. Initiatives it was hoped would encourage relocation from the densely populated south saw limited success. Addressing parliament in February 2024, Senate speaker Maulen Ashimbayev noted that despite programs like Serpin-2050, which provides free education, and Enbek, which offers job placements and rent support, results have been disappointing. Between 2017 and 2021, only 32,000 people relocated, with half unable to work. Population decline in North and East Kazakhstan reflects these regions' reliance on resource-heavy industries, lack of modernization, and uneven infrastructure development, bringing broader challenges...