Business - The Times Of Central Asia

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Domestic trade

Kazakhstan’s Domestic Trade Growth Slows as Consumer Demand Weakens

The growth of domestic trade in Kazakhstan slowed markedly in early 2026, reinforcing signs of weakening consumer activity and increased business caution. According to the National Statistics Bureau, the trade sector expanded by only 3.4% in January–February, compared with 6% during the same period a year earlier. Growth slowed significantly, affecting both wholesale and retail trade. Analysts at Halyk Finance believe the trend reflects deeper economic processes rather than a short-term fluctuation. “The dynamics at the start of the year point to a cooling of aggregate demand and economic activity,” Halyk Finance said. Wholesale trade, a key indicator of business activity, showed the most pronounced slowdown. Growth fell to 3.8%, down from 6.6% a year earlier. In the first two months of the year, the volume of wholesale transactions reached $9.6 billion. However, the structure of trade indicates a predominance of non-food and industrial goods, reflecting weaker corporate demand. Experts also note that declining oil production has exerted additional pressure on the sector, directly affecting wholesale sales volumes. The situation in retail trade remains mixed. Overall growth stood at 2.6%, driven largely by large retail chains. Sales in organized retail increased by 3.7%, while turnover among individual entrepreneurs and traditional markets continued to decline, falling by 1%. This trend reflects ongoing structural changes in the sector. The market is gradually shifting in favor of large retail players, while small businesses face growing competitive pressure. Changes in consumer spending patterns are also evident. Sales of food products rose by 9.1%, whereas non-food sales increased by only 0.2%, despite accounting for the majority of retail turnover. This suggests that households are becoming more cautious, focusing spending on essential goods and postponing purchases of more expensive items. Another indicator of weakening demand is the rise in inventory levels. As of early March, inventories totaled approximately $2.5 billion, equivalent to around 77 days of sales. Combined with slower turnover, this points to a softening of consumer demand. Overall, analysts note that domestic trade continues to grow, but the pace of expansion is slowing and becoming less sustainable. Business activity remains subdued, consumers are saving more, and the market is gradually shifting toward more formal retail participants. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the government is considering support measures for key sectors, including dairy and baking, in an effort to curb inflation and sustain demand.

Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov

Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov’s U.S. and Germany Trip Draws Attention to Diplomatic Reshuffle

In mid-February, Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, former president of Turkmenistan and current chairman of the Halk Maslahaty (the People's Council of Turkmenistan), visited the United States. State media reported extensively on the trip, although some details of the visit and its outcomes were not publicly clarified. Shortly after Berdymuhamedov’s return, President Serdar Berdymuhamedov, his son, dismissed Turkmenistan’s ambassador to the United States and the country’s permanent representative to the United Nations. No official explanation for the change was provided. According to official reports, Berdymuhamedov held meetings with executives of Nicklaus Companies, including its leadership, as well as representatives of the Turkmenistan-U.S. Business Council. The company was founded by American golfer Jack Nicklaus. During the visit, Berdymuhamedov also toured several golf facilities and visited an equestrian complex, where he was briefed on horse care and training practices. He additionally met with a number of U.S. business figures, including entrepreneurs Steve Wynn and Isaac Perlmutter, as well as William Koch, chairman of Oxbow Group. Discussions were also held with representatives of agricultural equipment manufacturer John Deere regarding potential cooperation in Central Asia. Golf and equestrian projects Interest in golf has been growing in Turkmenistan in recent years. The Ashgabat Golf Club, opened in 2017, is promoted by officials as a flagship recreational facility in the capital. Plans have also been announced to expand golf infrastructure in the Avaza National Tourist Zone, where Berdymuhamedov has previously instructed authorities to consider the construction of additional courses. On his return journey from the United States, Berdymuhamedov made a stop in Germany, where he reportedly discussed preparations for the 2026 FEI World Equestrian Championships in Aachen and an Akhal-Teke horse beauty contest scheduled to take place in the Netherlands. Unconfirmed reports and diplomatic changes Some media outlets reported that Berdymuhamedov’s visit coincided with a weekend stay by U.S. President Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence. Reports also suggested that a planned meeting did not take place, although no official confirmation has been provided. Separate reports by independent Turkmen media claimed that Berdymuhamedov’s aircraft sustained technical damage during the trip and that another government aircraft was dispatched from Ashgabat. These claims have not been officially confirmed. Personnel changes in Turkmenistan’s diplomatic service followed the visit. Veteran diplomat Aksoltan Atayeva was relieved of her post as the country’s representative to the United Nations, while Esen Aidogdyev was reassigned to the embassy in Washington. Independent media have also previously reported allegations regarding property holdings by former ambassador Meret Orazov in the United States. These claims have not been publicly addressed by Turkmen authorities.

Chinese Investment

The Illusion of Chinese Investment in Kazakhstan

Concerns about how Chinese businesses operate abroad — and the challenges already confronting Kazakhstani entrepreneurs — have resurfaced following a recent letter to the prime minister from an association of oil service companies reporting price dumping. Despite these developments, Kazakhstani experts remain hesitant to discuss the negative effects of China’s growing influence in the country’s real economy. Technological Dependence The reluctance is unsurprising. Astana’s official policy seeks broad rapprochement with Beijing, spanning economic, political, and cultural spheres. Given the power imbalance, Kazakhstan avoids public statements that might offend its wealthier partner, particularly in the media, which China monitors closely. As a result, the recent complaint by the PetroCouncil — an oil and gas association representing more than 150 domestic service companies — about dumping by foreign, mainly Chinese, firms has been met with silence from local experts. In a letter addressed to Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, the PetroCouncil warned that foreign firms, particularly from China, have been offering services to major Kazakhstani enterprises at prices 60–70% below market value. This, they argue, is forcing out local businesses, reducing Kazakhstani content, eroding tax revenue and employment, diminishing engineering expertise, and threatening industrial safety. We asked PetroCouncil Managing Director Daniel Zholdybaev why foreign companies have come to dominate Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector and whether the competence of local personnel or service providers is a factor. According to Zholdybaev, the dominance is rooted in how foreign operators first entered Kazakhstan’s market: by bringing their own technologies. This created long-term dependency not only on their expertise but also on foreign suppliers. “Chevron, for instance, maintains a vetted list of approved suppliers, and wherever the company operates, it only works with those on that list,” Zholdybaev explained. While Kazakhstan continues to develop domestic manufacturing capabilities, local firms are still barred from participating in high-risk operations such as work on wells with extreme pressure or temperature conditions. Zholdybaev noted that Kazakhstan’s three major fields — Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan — account for 90 percent of oil and gas imports. The operators of these projects are mainly Western companies. Russia, due to international sanctions, plays only a marginal role in procurement despite maintaining a presence in Kazakhstan. However, it is Chinese companies, actively welcomed by the state, that have introduced the issue of price dumping. Chinese firms operating in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry maintain closed procurement systems, sourcing goods and services almost exclusively from Chinese suppliers. As a result, Chinese investment brings minimal benefit to Kazakhstan’s economy. Even construction contracts often return to China. Russian observers, typically sensitive to Central Asia’s dealings with China and the United States, have also remained largely silent on this issue. A rare exception was political analyst Yuri Baranchik, who posted a sharply critical comment on his Telegram channel: “This is a clear example of what happens when Chinese companies are allowed full access to the domestic market,” he wrote. “They dump prices to bankrupt local businesses, monopolize the sector, and then dictate terms. Now the Kazakh government must figure...

Business

TikTok to Boost Support for Kazakhstani Entrepreneurs

Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin, met with Sergey Sokolov, Director of Government Relations and Corporate Affairs for TikTok in Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Mongolia, to discuss the platform’s tools for promoting local businesses. During the meeting, TikTok representatives presented findings from a joint study conducted with the Atameken National Chamber of Entrepreneurs on the platform’s impact on entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan. The survey included over 300 micro and small business owners from 20 regions across the country. According to Raimbek Batalov, Chairman of Atameken, the partnership with TikTok is already producing tangible results. As part of the “One Village, One Product” initiative, entrepreneurs have received training on using digital tools to market their products and grow their sales. “Among companies that post content weekly, one in eight earns more than half of its revenue through the platform. Overall, 63% of businesses report that at least 5% of their annual income is directly tied to TikTok,” Batalov said. In collaboration with the state-backed Damu Fund, plans are underway to expand training programs on TikTok’s digital tools. Batalov noted that the integration of digital solutions remains a key area for the development of small businesses in Kazakhstan. Sergey Sokolov described Kazakhstan as one of the region’s fastest-growing markets and emphasized the platform’s untapped potential in advancing digital entrepreneurship. “We are ready to collaborate with Atameken and state authorities to elevate digital business tools to a new level,” he said. The study highlighted that companies in the creative and service sectors, including hospitality, entertainment, beauty, and wellness, have experienced the strongest results from their TikTok presence. Educational and tourism-related content also shows high growth potential, with Kazakhstani teachers and cultural projects attracting millions of views. Previously, Kazakh officials and TikTok representatives explored opportunities to promote Kazakhstan’s tourism potential to international audiences via the platform.

Business

Open for Business: New Reforms Accelerate Investment in Uzbek Companies

Uzbekistan’s business sector is in a period of rapid transformation. The catalyst for this is the government's newest set of economic reforms, through which it is seeking to attract long-term investment. New legislation, targeted incentives for enterprises, and an influx of international partnerships are changing the way that companies operate and invest. A key part of this transformation is the government’s effort to create a more predictable and transparent regulatory environment. The World Bank has noted that Uzbekistan’s reform strategy is centered on expanding trade integration and accelerating the long-planned privatization of state assets. The country’s priorities include accession to the World Trade Organization, which has brought about legal adjustments designed to align Uzbek standards with global norms. Investor confidence has been encouraged by new policies that now make it easier to live and work in Uzbekistan. A five-year “golden visa” now makes it possible for foreign nationals who invest at least $250,000 to receive residency. This simplifies procedures for those developing long-term projects. Another focus for the government is financial liberalization. The International Monetary Fund recently noted that state ownership of banks is expected to fall to around 40 percent next year, which creates space for potential private lenders and foreign capital. Recent data suggests that these reforms are beginning to bear fruit. In the first quarter of 2025, Uzbekistan attracted about $8.7 billion in new foreign investment, according to figures published by UzDaily, with the total inflow this year projected to reach $42 billion. The Times of Central Asia has reported that over the past eight years, the country has absorbed more than $113 billion in foreign capital. These numbers highlight the nation's growing appeal to international investors. Alongside the surge in foreign activity, the authorities are developing policies to encourage domestic entrepreneurs. There are now more than 370,000 registered small and medium-sized businesses in Uzbekistan, which now receive more support from the government through simpler registration rules and targeted tax incentives. Private industrial parks in Tashkent and Samarkand are driving innovation in the textiles, IT and construction sectors, and creating prospective local jobs. The business community has taken notice of these reforms. At the Tashkent International Investment Forum in June, European delegates described Uzbekistan as a country “undergoing large-scale transformation”, with a growing array of opportunities for international investors. Guests in Tashkent praised efforts to increase transparency in business and cut back on beaurocracy. At the same time, they stressed the need to be consistent in their implementation across regions. Despite tangible progress, challenges remain. Inflation has remained high, and analysts continue to point to structural issues hampering growth. These include an underdeveloped financial system and a large informal economy. Foreign businesses operating in Uzbekistan are also advised to pay close attention to compliance and labor law as the legal environment evolves. Two of the government's priorities stand out in the short term. The first is the privatization of major state assets in the energy, transport and telecommunications industries -- part of the 2025 national economic program...

Business

Kazakhstan and Germany Extend Business Partnership Program Through 2028

Kazakhstan and Germany have signed an agreement to extend their long-running “Partnering in Business with Germany” program until 2028, reinforcing bilateral economic cooperation with a particular focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Jointly implemented by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy and Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, the program has been in operation for 15 years. More than 800 Kazakhstani entrepreneurs have participated, gaining hands-on training in Germany, learning best business practices, modernizing their operations, and securing contracts, licenses, and franchise agreements. In 2025, the German side will continue to fully cover costs for participants, including training, insurance, and accommodation. Deputy Minister of National Economy Yerlan Sagnayev emphasized that the program not only fosters professional development among Kazakhstani entrepreneurs but also contributes to deepening long-term economic ties between the two nations. Germany is Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner within the European Union. At the 16th Kazakhstan-German Business Council meeting held in Astana in May, it was revealed that Kazakhstan ranked 43rd among Germany’s global trade partners in 2024 and accounted for 83% of Germany’s trade volume with Central Asia. Energy remains a central pillar of bilateral cooperation. Kazakhstan began exporting crude oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline in 2023, with volumes expected to rise to 1.5 million tons in 2025, up from 993,000 tons in 2023.