Caspian Pipeline - The Times Of Central Asia

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Caspian Pipeline Gas import

Turkey to Import Turkmen Gas via Caspian Pipeline Within Five Years

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced that Turkmenistan will begin supplying natural gas to Turkey through pipelines under the Caspian Sea within the next five years. The announcement was made during the Natural Resources Summit in Istanbul, as reported by Turkmenistan’s Transport and Communications Agency and cited by Business Turkmenistan. Erdoğan stated that since March 2025, Turkmen gas has already been reaching Turkey via Iran, with approximately 250 million cubic meters delivered so far. By the end of the year, that volume is expected to rise to 1.3 billion cubic meters. He emphasized that expanding energy cooperation with Turkmenistan remains a strategic priority for Ankara. A bilateral agreement was signed on February 10, 2025, following high-level talks. The long-discussed trans-Caspian pipeline project, once stalled due to political and environmental concerns, now appears to be gaining traction. If realized, it would allow direct exports of Turkmen gas to Turkey and potentially to European markets. Earlier this year, The Times of Central Asia reported that methane emissions could pose a challenge for Turkmenistan’s ambition to export gas to Europe. A February 2025 report from the U.S. Department of Energy noted that Turkmenistan holds the world’s fifth-largest natural gas reserves, estimated at 400 trillion cubic feet and produced 3.0 trillion cubic feet of dry gas in 2023, marking a record high since tracking began in 1992.

Opinion: Kazakhstan Caught in the Crossfire of Caspian Pipeline Strikes

The developing peace process between Russia and Ukraine, initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, offers a glimmer of hope for stability. Yet Kazakhstan finds itself in a difficult position, caught in the crosshairs of a conflict that continues to spill across its borders, at least economically. Over the past few months, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), through which more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil is exported, has become the target of repeated drone attacks linked to the war in Ukraine. Despite a tentative ceasefire agreement, damage to CPC infrastructure continues. In mid-March, the Kavkazskaya oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region, part of the CPC system, suffered a major fire following a suspected Ukrainian drone attack. According to Reuters, the blaze lasted nearly a week before being extinguished, raising concerns about the vulnerability of energy infrastructure in the region. Western outlets have confirmed that the CPC’s Kropotkinskaya pumping station was targeted around the same period. S&P Global reported that drone strikes on March 18-19 damaged a key facility transferring oil from rail tankers to the pipeline system. Business Insider noted the attack caused serious financial disruption, particularly for CPC shareholders such as Chevron-led Tengizchevroil. Kazakhstani journalist Oleg Chervinsky has stated that the CPC was included in a ceasefire moratorium on mutual strikes, reportedly agreed upon by both sides. If accurate, the March attacks could suggest a violation of those terms. AP News has also highlighted ambiguity in the ceasefire framework, with Russia and Ukraine each accusing the other of non-compliance. The economic stakes for Kazakhstan are high. According to oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov, the CPC distributed $1.3 billion in dividends in 2024, with KazMunayGas, Kazakhstan’s national oil company, receiving an estimated $250 million, approximately $85 million of which was channeled into the state budget. At a time when Kazakhstan is still recovering from a budget deficit, further disruptions to CPC operations are more than technical, they threaten fiscal stability. Yet the response from Astana has remained subdued. Political analyst Andrei Chebotarev recalled that following an an earlier attack in February, the Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs pledged to engage with its Ukrainian counterparts. What emerged from those talks remains unclear. Chebotarev also noted that Ukraine has yet to appoint a new ambassador to Kazakhstan, despite generally constructive relations. Fellow analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev has speculated that geopolitical rivalries may be at play, including competition with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Kazakhstan’s recent overproduction within OPEC+, though these claims remain unverified. In a brief official comment, Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantyrov confirmed that Kazakhstan remains in contact with Ukraine and that discussions are ongoing. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Energy has stated that Kazakh oil continues to flow through the CPC pipeline without restriction. Yet, for many observers, Kazakhstan’s measured diplomacy, perhaps aimed at avoiding antagonism with either side, is beginning to feel inadequate. As key infrastructure remains exposed to cross-border conflict, the case for a firmer and more public diplomatic posture grows stronger.

CPC Geopolitics Caspian Pipeline Accident Oil refinery

A Blow to the CPC: Geopolitical Intrigue Surrounding the Pipeline

More than a week has passed since Ukrainian drones attacked the Kropotkinskaya oil refinery, part of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system. However, the incident remains a topic of heated debate in Kazakhstan. What Happened? On February 17, the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station, located in Kavkazsky district, Krasnodar Krai, was targeted by multiple UAVs carrying explosives and metal fragments. While there were no casualties, the facility sustained damage and was taken out of service. Oil transportation through the Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline has since been rerouted via a bypass system, ensuring that shipments from the CPC Marine Terminal continue as normal. On February 20-21, a Kazakh delegation, including Daniyar Berlibayev, special representative for the CPC project from KazMunayGas, and Yerbolat Mendybayev, Director of Transportation and Logistics at KazMunayGas, visited the Kropotkinskaya station alongside CPC Deputy General Director Hakim Kasymov to assess the damage. At a CPC shareholders' meeting in Abu Dhabi on February 25-26, CEO Nikolay Gorban presented a report on the extent of the damage, equipment dismantling progress, and contractor mobilization status. According to the CPC press service, shareholders pledged full support for repair work, which is expected to take approximately two months. Kazakh Debate: Is Ukraine to Blame? While CPC shareholders, including entities from Kazakhstan, Russia, Europe, and the United States, treated the issue as a technical problem, Kazakh public discourse took a different turn, led by Mazhilis deputies. Parliamentarian Nikita Shatalov questioned Ukraine’s motivations on his Telegram channel: “The Ukrainian side could not have been unaware that 90% of the oil transported through the pipeline is Kazakh, extracted from Tengiz, with revenues benefiting Western companies exporting to the EU. The pipeline is international, with KazMunayGas, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Italy’s Eni as shareholders. This attack was clearly intended to damage Kazakhstan’s economic interests.” Shatalov emphasized Kazakhstan’s neutral stance in the Ukraine-Russia war, pointing out that diplomatic contacts between Astana and Kyiv have continued at the highest levels, including President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s engagement with Volodymyr Zelensky. “Those responsible for this attack on an international consortium must be punished. Kazakhstan must demand accountability from Ukraine for the damage inflicted and the threat to bilateral relations.” His stance was echoed by Mazhilis deputy Marat Bashimov, who called the attack a "direct assault on Kazakhstan’s interests" in a Facebook post: “The Ukrainian side knew exactly how strategically vital the CPC pipeline is for Kazakh oil exports.” Bashimov argued that Kazakhstan has always upheld neutrality, supported diplomatic resolution efforts, and even refused to recognize the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics. Kazakh Debate: Is Russia to Blame? Not all deputies agreed. Mazhilisman Yermurat Bapi strongly rejected demands for Ukrainian compensation, arguing that Kazakhstan has no moral or legal grounds to make such a claim: “For more than three years, Ukraine has been fighting for survival against an aggressor that invaded its territory. As part of this war, Ukraine has the right to choose its defense strategies.” Bapi went further, blaming Kazakhstan’s overreliance on Russian infrastructure for the crisis: “The CPC pipeline was a strategic mistake of...

Caspian Pipeline Drone Attack incident Russia's War Caspian Region Oil and Gas Ukraine

Ukraine’s Drone Strike on Russian Oil Hub Sparks Concerns Over Kazakhstan’s Energy Security

On February 17, seven Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) attacked an oil transportation facility of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), targeting the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station in Russia. Following the attack, reports emerged that the volume of oil pumped from Kazakhstan through the CPC could decrease by 30% for a period of one and a half to two months. Conflicting Reports on the Impact On February 18, Ukraine officially confirmed the strike. "Yesterday, the Ukrainian defense forces carried out a pinpoint strike on strategic facilities of the military and fuel and energy infrastructure of the Russian Federation... The Kropotkinskaya and Andriapol oil pumping stations, which played a key role in transporting fuel for the occupiers, were hit. After the strike, they were put out of action, significantly complicating the logistics of fuel supplies to the aggressor," the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated. Shortly after, Transneft, the Russian shareholder in the CPC, warned that oil pumping volumes from Kazakhstan could drop by approximately 30% due to the damage. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak provided an even bleaker assessment. During a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, he stated: "We see a decrease in pumping volumes by about 30 - 40% compared to levels before the drone attack." Novak estimated that restoring the CPC infrastructure would take "several months, at least," citing the need to replace damaged Western-made equipment, including Siemens gas turbines. However, later that day, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy issued a statement disputing these claims. "Currently, there are no restrictions on Kazakh oil shipments via the CPC, and acceptance is proceeding as scheduled," the ministry said. Despite this, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov framed the attack as a direct assault on Kazakhstan’s energy infrastructure. Expert Perspectives: Overreaction or Serious Threat? While officials issued conflicting statements, financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov urged against panic. Writing on his Telegram channel ArtFinanze, he dismissed talk of a 30% reduction in pumping volumes as an "overreaction." However, he acknowledged that the attack exposed the risks of Kazakhstan’s reliance on foreign transit routes. "Geopolitical and other risks when exporting through third countries can easily double. It’s too early to panic; there are few catastrophic scenarios at this stage. But if attacks on infrastructure continue, it will become increasingly difficult to protect the underwater pipeline system, especially considering the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s recent losses. Kazakhstan’s oil facilities have been largely spared so far, but there’s no guarantee this will continue. Contrary to popular belief, the fact that companies like Chevron are involved won’t deter anyone; on the contrary, such infrastructure can be used to exert pressure on entire countries," he warned. Kazakhstan’s Dilemma: Dependence on Russian Routes While experts downplay immediate consequences, Kazakhstan’s vulnerability is undeniable. Calls to boost domestic petrochemical production to reduce dependence on foreign pipelines remain largely aspirational. Meanwhile, efforts to diversify oil export routes have yielded little progress. Currently, 93% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports pass through Russian territory, leaving the country with limited alternatives: Caspian Pipeline Consortium...

Caspian Pipeline Drone Attack incident Caspian Region

Drone Attack on Caspian Pipeline Consortium Station: Implications for Kazakhstan

On February 17, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reported a drone attack on the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station in Russia's Krasnodar region. According to an official CPC statement, the attack involved seven drones armed with explosives and metal shrapnel. The strikes occurred at intervals, which, according to experts, suggests an intent not only to disable the facility but also to endanger personnel. Despite this, no casualties were reported. Quick action by CPC employees prevented an oil spill, though the station was taken out of operation. A commission led by CPC General Director Nikolay Gorban arrived at the site to assess the damage and determine a timeline for repairs. Currently, oil transportation along the Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline is operating at reduced capacity, bypassing the Kropotkinskaya station. CPC’s international shareholders, including companies from the United States and Europe, have been informed of the attack and its consequences. Temur Umarov, a researcher at the Carnegie Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies in Berlin, commented on the incident via his Telegram channel, noting that Ukraine had previously avoided targeting CPC infrastructure in Russia to avoid harming Kazakhstan and its Western partners, such as Chevron, Shell, ExxonMobil, and Eni. However, he said this latest attack underscores Kazakhstan's vulnerability, as the country relies on the CPC pipeline for 80% of its oil exports. "Whatever the consequences and reactions to this episode, it reminds Kazakhstan once again of its deep dependence on the CPC pipeline; through it, Astana can be pressured both by Russia and, as we now see, by others," Umarov wrote. The Kropotkinskaya station is the largest CPC oil pumping facility in Russia, located in Krasnodar Krai. However, according to the TCA, no Kazakh oil passes through this station. This is not the first time drones, presumably Ukrainian, have targeted infrastructure related to Kazakh oil exports via Russian territory. In December 2023, drones struck a loading point of the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Bryansk region, a key route for Kazakh oil exports to Europe.