Afghanistan’s Regional Ties Grow as Global Reintegration Stalls

For Central Asia, Afghanistan is both a source of risk and a potential route south. Governments across the region increasingly see a more stable Afghanistan as a way to open new markets and expand economic links with South Asia. Afghanistan is a direct neighbor of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The geography is different for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but their political and economic interests are no less significant. Many long-term plans for expanding Central Asia’s connections to the south depend in part on Afghanistan’s future and the role it can play in the regional economy. At the UN Security Council’s September 16, 2026, meeting on Afghanistan, Kazakhstan set out a position that may reflect a wider Central Asian view. Astana argued that engagement with Afghanistan’s current authorities should not be equated with recognition and that isolation could not offer a sustainable solution. Astana proposes moving past the current focus on humanitarian aid. In Kazakhstan’s view, the next phase of international engagement should gradually move Afghanistan from dependence on humanitarian aid toward economic self-reliance through job creation, private-sector development, the restoration of financial channels, and expanded trade and investment. The statement also calls for Afghanistan’s integration into the regional economy. Kazakhstan’s representative specifically discussed connections between Central and South Asia, Kazakh-Afghan business ties, trade houses in Herat and Kabul, and the new UN Regional Centre for the Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan in Almaty. Astana also expressed concern about restrictions affecting Afghan women and girls. Georgette Gagnon, the UN secretary-general’s deputy special representative for Afghanistan, delivered the main briefing. Five years after the Taliban’s return to power, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) assesses that the de facto authorities face no significant armed or political threat to their control, although risks to long-term stability are accumulating and largely stem from their own policies. UNAMA therefore distinguishes between the Taliban’s control of the country and its prospects for long-term stability. UNAMA views the Doha process as the main multilateral framework for Afghanistan’s gradual reintegration into the international community. It links progress to women’s rights and inclusive governance, along with the fulfillment of counterterrorism commitments. The mission also notes that Kabul prefers bilateral relations to multilateral engagement. Russia and China focused on pragmatic engagement and economic recovery, stressing the need to avoid isolation. China also urged Kabul to step up its efforts against terrorist groups and lift restrictions preventing Afghan women employed by the UN from doing their jobs. Russia called for dialogue without pressure and for steps toward Afghanistan’s international reintegration without preconditions. Afghanistan’s economic ties with some regional partners are expanding while its political normalization at the global level remains unresolved. Kazakhstan’s position illustrates this divide. It allows for engagement without accepting the existing order as permanent or waiting for isolation to change it. Future international discussions on Afghanistan will have to address this tension.

Five Years Without Recognition: How Central Asia Is Building Relations with Afghanistan

Five years of Taliban rule have shown that international relations with an unrecognized government can go much further than many imagined after the fall of Kabul in August 2021. Russia remains the only country to have formally recognized Afghanistan’s current authorities, yet the complete isolation some expected has not materialized. Afghanistan receives foreign diplomats and participates in regional talks, while neighboring states pursue trade and infrastructure projects with Kabul. Over the past five years, the Taliban have signed mining agreements worth billions of dollars, including projects involving Chinese and Iranian capital. This diplomatic arrangement has become possible because international approaches toward Afghanistan have diverged. Restrictions on the rights of women and girls continue to block broader international legitimization of the Taliban. In August, the UN described the situation facing Afghan women as the world’s most severe women’s rights crisis. At the same time, neighboring states have practical issues to address involving trade, security, water, energy, and transportation. Central Asia has gone particularly far in developing practical engagement. Afghanistan is gradually being integrated into regional economic ties without any formal change in its international status. Engagement Without Recognition On April 5, 2026, Kabul hosted the first dedicated Central Asia-Afghanistan Consultative Dialogue, attended by representatives of all five Central Asian states. The participants discussed economic ties and regional connectivity. The format itself was presented as a multilateral political mechanism for regular engagement between Afghanistan and Central Asia. This is already more than a collection of separate contacts with Kabul. The region is gradually developing its own model for dealing with the Taliban, driven by issues that cannot simply be left unresolved. Trade and transportation continue regardless of diplomatic status. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, rail freight between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan reached 1 million tons, up 77% year over year. Tajikistan, which long maintained the toughest stance toward the Taliban among Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors, has also expanded working contacts with Kabul, although border security remains a serious concern. Tajik officials say five Chinese citizens were killed in two attacks launched from Afghan territory in late 2025, while Dushanbe has long warned about militant groups operating in Afghanistan, including Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). So far, this model has allowed political recognition to remain separate from practical cooperation. But the region is gradually moving beyond trade and diplomatic contacts toward proposed infrastructure projects with multibillion-dollar price tags. From Trade to Long-Term Bets Afghanistan’s economy is growing, but it remains too weak to finance major infrastructure projects on its own. The World Bank estimated real GDP growth at 4.8% in 2025, but the return of around 3.7 million Afghans and rapid population growth contributed to a 5.6% decline in GDP per capita. Investment remains weak, while businesses have limited access to financing. The financial system also maintains connections with the outside world through narrow channels. The World Bank has noted limited correspondent banking relationships, a lack of direct access to accounts in the United States, and the significant role of the informal hawala...