Central Asia - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economy

Trade in Central Asia: China Deepens Influence, Europe Expands Presence, Region Seeks New Markets

Central Asia remains a theater of active economic competition, with countries in the region striving to diversify external partnerships and reduce dependence on traditional power centers, Russia and China. While both continue to dominate foreign trade, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are increasingly exploring new directions. The region’s evolving trade dynamics reflect each country's economic characteristics. Kazakhstan is driven by energy and metals exports, Uzbekistan by manufacturing and resource processing, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely heavily on remittances and raw material exports. Amid global shifts and intensified competition for markets, Central Asian states are gradually shaping more multipolar trade strategies, opening up new routes and partnerships. Turkmenistan is excluded from this analysis due to the opacity of its national statistics. Kazakhstan As Central Asia’s largest economy, Kazakhstan relies heavily on natural resource extraction. Its main exports include oil, gas, metals, coal, grain, and agricultural products. Imports consist primarily of machinery, chemicals, vehicles, and consumer goods. Key export partners include Italy (21.6%), China (18.6%), Russia (10.2%), the Netherlands (7.4%), Turkey (4.7%), and Uzbekistan (4.3%). On the import side, China (29%) and Russia (28.8%) dominate, followed by Germany (4.8%), South Korea (3.7%), the United States (3.6%), and Turkey (2.5%). Kazakhstan has maintained a positive trade balance, buoyed by consistent demand for raw materials. In January-July 2025, the country’s foreign trade turnover totaled $78.18 billion, down 2.6% from the same period in 2024. Exports declined by 6.4% to $43.58 billion, while imports rose by 2.6% to $34.6 billion. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan's economy is focused on agriculture, textiles, natural resources, and manufacturing. Major exports include textiles, gold, gas, automobiles, cotton, and fruit. Imports are led by machinery, equipment, chemicals, and petroleum products. In the first half of 2025, foreign trade turnover reached $44.4 billion, up 19.9% year-on-year. Exports rose 34.9% to $20.1 billion, while imports increased 9.9% to $24.29 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $4.18 billion. Uzbekistan trades with 197 countries. Its largest trade partners are China (18.2%), Russia (16.1%), Kazakhstan (5.9%), Turkey (3.6%), and South Korea (2.2%). Export destinations include Russia (12.3%), China (5.5%), Kazakhstan (4.0%), Afghanistan (3.7%), Turkey (3.0%), France (2.6%), the UAE (1.8%), Kyrgyzstan (1.6%), Tajikistan (1.4%), and Pakistan (1.2%). Imports mainly come from China (28.7%), Russia (19.3%), Kazakhstan (7.6%), Turkey (4.1%), South Korea (3.9%), Germany (2.8%), and India (2.6%). Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan, with limited natural resources, is heavily dependent on foreign trade. Its economy is rooted in agriculture, mining, and textiles. Key exports include gold and agricultural products, while imports are dominated by machinery, vehicles, petroleum products, and chemicals. From January to June 2025, foreign trade turnover fell 12.4% year-on-year to $6.99 billion. Exports made up only 15% of total trade, underscoring a continued trade deficit. Main partners remain Kazakhstan, Russia, and China. Tajikistan Tajikistan’s economy is centered on agriculture, hydropower, textiles, and mining. In January-August 2025, foreign trade turnover rose 16.8% year-on-year to $6.73 billion. Exports totaled $1.63 billion, while imports reached $5.1 billion, more than triple the export volume. Main exports are aluminum, textiles, agricultural goods, and minerals; imports...

Politics

From Reform to Deals: Central Asia Steps Onto the Global Stage at UNGA-80

Ecology, global instability, and the need for UN reform dominated the speeches of all five Central Asian presidents at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly. Presenting a united front while emphasizing national priorities, the leaders made clear that Central Asia intends to play a pivotal role in shaping the global future. UN Reform Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was the first among the CIS leaders to address the assembly, speaking of a growing crisis of trust in multilateral institutions and calling for sweeping reforms. Tokayev emphasized the need to expand the UN Security Council, arguing that major powers from Asia, Africa, and Latin America must receive rotational representation, and that the influence of middle powers should be strengthened. “We need to create a new group of like-minded states that will professionally and decisively advance concrete proposals for reforming the UN so that it better responds to today’s challenges and tomorrow’s tasks,” he said, proposing Kazakhstan as a platform for these discussions. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev echoed these concerns, highlighting the weakening of international institutions and the proliferation of global conflicts. He endorsed UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ UN-80 initiative and voiced support for the Pact for the Future, which sets out commitments to strengthen multilateral cooperation and address global challenges through 2045, the UN’s centenary. Mirziyoyev also advocated for an expanded Security Council to better represent developing countries. In his address, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov called for a more just and representative Security Council, underscoring Africa’s right to greater participation. He also announced Kyrgyzstan’s candidacy for a non-permanent seat on the Security Council for 2027-2028, noting that his country has never before held such a position. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon warned of growing instability, uncertainty, and complexity in world affairs. Rahmon stressed the UN’s role as a platform for dialogue and cooperation and called for equal partnerships between large and small states to restore adherence to international law. Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov argued that the current global situation requires a "decisive shift toward coordinated interaction among states and international organizations to maintain peace and security.” He proposed declaring 2028 the Year of International Law to strengthen the legal foundations of global cooperation. Ecology and Finance On environmental issues, the Central Asian leaders focused on national and regional concerns. Tokayev addressed the ongoing shallowing of the Caspian Sea, while both he and Mirziyoyev raised the issue of the Aral Sea crisis, often described as "one of the world’s worst environmental disasters." Rahmon highlighted the rapid disappearance of glaciers, a point supported by Japarov, given the critical dependence of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on mountain water resources. Berdimuhamedov, meanwhile, proposed establishing a regional center for combating desertification in Central Asia. Other initiatives included the proposed Caspian Environmental Forum in 2026 and continued advancement of the Caspian Environmental Initiative, originally introduced by Ashgabat. Financial concerns were also prominent. Rahmon called for reforms to international financial mechanisms, citing the continued suffering of vulnerable developing countries from the impacts of economic crises, poverty, disease, natural disasters,...

Economic Growth

World Bank: Central Asia’s Growth to Slow but Remain Resilient

Central Asia is set to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing regions, although its economic momentum is expected to moderate in the coming years, according to the World Bank’s Spring 2025 Europe & Central Asia Economic Update. The region posted a growth rate of 5.5% in 2024, with projections of 5.0% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026 as oil output normalizes in Kazakhstan, re-exports fade, and remittance inflows settle. The World Bank also revised its 2024 forecast upward by 0.8 percentage points, citing stronger-than-anticipated domestic demand. The forecasts incorporate data available through April 10, 2025. Country-Level Outlook Uzbekistan is forecast to grow by 6.5% in 2024, followed by 5.9% in both 2025 and 2026. Kyrgyzstan is expected to expand by 9.0% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2025. Tajikistan will grow by 8.4% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. Kazakhstan’s growth is projected to be more moderate, at 4.8% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. The World Bank attributes much of the region’s expansion to robust domestic demand, including household consumption, investment, and government spending, rather than export performance. Remittances continue to play a vital role in economic stability: they account for nearly 40% of GDP in Tajikistan, over 20% in Kyrgyzstan, and are critical in reducing poverty in Uzbekistan, where poverty rates would nearly double in their absence. Investment and Long-Term Prospects With investment comprising about 26% of GDP, Central Asia boasts one of the highest investment-to-GDP ratios among developing regions. This is largely driven by construction and large-scale infrastructure projects, particularly in the energy and transport sectors. However, the road to high-income status remains long. According to the Bank, based on current trajectories, it would take Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan approximately 40 years, Kyrgyzstan 70 years, and Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over 100 years to reach the high-income threshold of $14,005 in per capita income, a benchmark set for 2023. Risks and Policy Recommendations These forecasts are based on data available through April 10, 2025, and reflect persistent challenges stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, ongoing cost-of-living pressures, and regional trade disruptions since 2022. To sustain momentum, the World Bank urges policymakers to pursue structural reforms and channel investment into productivity enhancements, technology adoption, and innovation. Without such efforts, growth could fall below potential in the years ahead.

Public health

Central Asian Nations Rank Low in Global Mental Health Index

Mental health remains a significant challenge across Central Asia, with populations reporting high levels of distress and rising rates of self-harm. According to the Mental State of the World survey, Uzbekistan ranked 74th out of 82 countries on the Mental Health and Wellbeing Index, scoring 54.5 points. Kazakhstan followed at 76th (52.3), Kyrgyzstan at 79th (51.2), and Tajikistan at 80th (51.2). The global average stands at 63 points, suggesting that, on average, people around the world feel mentally stable and active for about 21 days each month. Experts point to a range of factors driving poor mental health in the region, including anxiety, depression, fatigue, loneliness, and unresolved personal issues. A joint survey by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and YouGov, which included more than 14,000 respondents across 14 countries, found that 32 percent had experienced unplanned pregnancies and 23 percent were unable to start families when they wished. Financial hardship was the most frequently cited barrier to wellbeing (39 percent), followed by job insecurity (21 percent), inadequate housing (19 percent), and fear of war or pandemics (19 percent). A study published in BMC Public Health reported age-standardized suicide rates per 100,000 people in 2019 as follows: Kazakhstan at 18.05; Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan both at 8.28; Turkmenistan at 6.07; and Tajikistan at 5.32. By comparison, the global suicide rate that year was approximately 9 per 100,000. Despite its relative economic strength, Kazakhstan ranked 17th globally for suicide rate in 2020, with 18 deaths per 100,000 people, according to World Health Organization (WHO) data. UNICEF has also recorded a disturbing trend among the country’s youth: between January and August 2024, over 2,300 self-harm incidents were reported, including 128 involving children aged 5 to 18. Among adolescents aged 15 to 19, self-harm has become the leading cause of death. Uzbekistan, which received the highest score in the region, is expanding access to counseling services and training school psychologists. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are piloting community-based mental health centers. However, specialists warn that without broader social reforms, such as stable employment, affordable housing, and gender equality, both reproductive and mental health will continue to fall short of international standards. “True progress means giving people freedom to choose and live without fear,” the UNFPA report concludes. For Central Asia, this requires greater investment in rights, services, and long-term wellbeing.

Rare Earth Elements

After Securing Ukraine Agreement, U.S. Eyes Central Asia for Rare Earths

After months of negotiations, the United States and Ukraine have finally signed an agreement to co-finance the development of Ukraine’s mineral resources, hydrocarbons, and infrastructure. According to The National Interest, the U.S. will not assume ownership of Ukraine’s assets; instead, profits will be directed into a joint investment fund, with full reinvestment in Ukraine. Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko described the deal as a mutually beneficial partnership. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed it as a “historic economic partnership,” underscoring America’s enduring commitment to a “free and prosperous Ukraine.” Since his return to office in January, President Donald Trump has prioritized securing access to rare earth minerals. This move is part of a broader U.S. strategy to reduce reliance on China, which currently dominates the sector with control over approximately two-thirds of global production. By contrast, the United States accounts for only about 12%. While Ukraine possesses 22 of the 50 minerals identified as critical by the U.S. government, it holds just around 5% of global reserves. As a result, Washington is looking beyond Ukraine and Central Asia has emerged as a strategic alternative. Reports from the Caspian Policy Center and the International Tax and Investment Center highlight the region’s significant rare earth potential. The countries of Central Asia have already taken steps toward deeper cooperation. In 2024, the United States and Uzbekistan signed a Memorandum of Understanding to enhance collaboration on critical minerals. However, competition for access remains stiff. China maintains robust trade links across the region, and Russia continues to wield considerable economic influence. Nonetheless, regional dynamics are shifting. In recent years, Central Asian states have increasingly sought to diversify their partnerships, reducing dependence on Moscow and Beijing. They have moved to deepen ties with the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. In September 2023, then-President Joe Biden met with Central Asian leaders to discuss regional cooperation, including rare earth supply chains. This was followed by the June 2024 meeting of the U.S.-Central Asia Trade and Investment Framework Council, where both parties emphasized the need for increased trade and integration. Like Ukraine, Central Asian nations stand to gain from U.S. investment, particularly in energy infrastructure and broader economic development. If implemented effectively, rare earth revenues could be retained within the region, supporting long-term local growth. For the United States, enhanced access to Central Asian resources represents a step toward greater energy security and reduced strategic vulnerability. While China and Russia maintain structural advantages, Washington now has a meaningful opportunity to deepen its presence in Central Asia and forge enduring partnerships.

Easter Celebration

How Orthodox Christians Celebrate Easter in Central Asia and Around the World

In 2025, Orthodox Christians will celebrate Easter on April 20. This central event in the Orthodox liturgical calendar is marked with solemnity and joy across Orthodox-majority countries such as Russia, Belarus, Georgia, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, and others. In Central Asia, Orthodox Christian communities also observe the holiday, maintaining centuries-old traditions despite being religious minorities. Kazakhstan On the night of April 20, Easter services will be held in all Orthodox churches across Kazakhstan. According to the Semirechensk Metropolitanate, the Holy Fire from Jerusalem will be brought to the Ascension Cathedral in Almaty, where Metropolitan Alexander will lead the liturgy and Easter procession. The service will begin at 23:30 and will be broadcast live on the Metropolitanate's official YouTube channel. A ceremonial arrival of the Holy Fire is scheduled for 17:00 on Easter Sunday at the cathedral. Uzbekistan In Uzbekistan, the focal point of Easter celebrations is the Holy Dormition Cathedral in Tashkent. Each year, Metropolitan Vikenty of Tashkent and Uzbekistan brings the Holy Fire from Jerusalem. In 2024, he celebrated Easter Matins with Bishop Savvatiy of Bishkek and Kyrgyzstan. Earlier that year, Vikenty made another pilgrimage to the Holy Land to receive the flame. Tajikistan In Dushanbe, Easter is traditionally celebrated at St. Nicholas Cathedral. In 2024, dozens of worshipers, including members of the Russian diplomatic mission and the ambassador, attended the festive liturgy. Following the service, a traditional procession took place, and parishioners received blessings along with kulich (traditional Easter bread) and other Easter treats. Turkmenistan Turkmenistan is home to approximately 485,000 Orthodox Christians, around 9% of the population. The Russian Orthodox Church operates through 12 churches organized under a Patriarchal benefice. While official celebrations are relatively modest, traditional Easter practices are still observed, particularly in urban centers. Russia In Russia, Easter remains the most significant church holiday. Services begin on Saturday evening with a midnight vigil, followed by festive Matins and the Divine Liturgy. The faithful greet one another with “Christ is risen!” and respond “Truly risen!” In the morning, families gather around tables adorned with kulichi, paskha (a cheese dessert), and colored eggs, which are traditionally used for “egg battles.” Easter Traditions Worldwide Because Orthodox churches use the Julian calendar and most Western churches follow the Gregorian calendar, Easter dates typically differ. However, in 2025, both calendars align, and Easter will be celebrated on the same day. Traditions vary widely around the world. In Poland, congregants bring willow branches and blessed food to churches, and festivities continue with "Wet Monday," a water-splashing custom. Bulgarians dye eggs and enjoy family feasts. In Greece, fireworks mark the midnight celebration, and tables are filled with magiritsa soup and roast lamb. In France and Germany, the Easter bunny and chocolate eggs dominate the holiday. Italians serve colomba cakes and lamb dishes, while the British favor hot cross buns and organize egg hunts. In Spain and Poland, dyed eggs are used for games and decoration. In Australia, Easter is celebrated with countryside festivals and egg hunts. Sweden observes a four-day holiday beginning on...