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Politics India-Pakistan Conflict

India and Pakistan: A Central Asian Perspective on Two Military Giants

The new round of heavy clashes involving India and Pakistan over the disputed region of Kashmir – then settled by a bilateral adherence to a “full-scale ceasefire” – has also been a confrontation involving the players surrounding the two Asian giants. The involvement of some of them took place in plain sight: take the case of Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a staunch ally of Pakistan, which sent the country a military ship and a group of fighter jets. Or China, which in recent years has invested tens of billions of dollars in Pakistan under the Belt & Road Initiative, and has become by far the largest supplier of military equipment to Islamabad. Beijing immediately called on both sides to engage in diplomacy. On the Indian front, as reported by recent research on the subject, New Delhi is purchasing weapons from an increasingly varied group of countries, including Russia, France, Israel and the United States. The ceasefire saw direct involvement from Washington, which acted as mediator between the two sides. Given also its geographical proximity to the Indian subcontinent, when it comes to Central Asia it is clear that the region may be called into question in any confrontation between India and Pakistan – or that, at least, would be heavily affected by it. During the strikes carried out by India against Pakistan following the deadly attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir, the Indian media emphasized the strategic role that the military base India allegedly operates in Tajikistan could play in a possible open confrontation with Pakistan. Indian experts pointed out that the base could have given New Delhi the ability to strike Pakistan from the west, seriously compromising Islamabad's air defense capabilities. Furthermore, China was also called into question in India's alleged use of the military outpost, as New Delhi is said to be monitoring China's movements on the northern front using its presence in Tajikistan. This base is Ayni Airbase, a Soviet-era military facility located near the Tajik capital Dushanbe. The facts we know for certain point to an Indian involvement in the Tajik base which appears to have ended around 2015. In 2002, India, in collaboration with Tajikistan and Russia, financed an operation to refurbish the base, investing around $70 million in the project. Among the changes made was the lengthening of the runway, which was intended to ensure that it could be used by aircraft operated by the Indian armed forces. As also stated in the report on Central Asian armed forces drafted by the DC-based The Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, after a phase in which it seemed that India would play a concrete role in the management of the base, Dushanbe subsequently backtracked, partly due to pressure from Russia. The same path was followed by New Delhi's involvement in the Farkhor airbase, initially used to reach Afghanistan by land by landing Indian cargo planes at the base, located near the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Over the years, the logistical importance of the structure gradually...

Politics

Emboldened Russia? Russian FM Lavrov Disputes Tokayev Comments

Russia’s top diplomat has said that he disagrees with old comments by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev about territorial integrity, leading some analysts to debate whether Russia is growing more emboldened as the United States appears to align with its positions on the war in Ukraine. The remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in an interview published on Monday in the Russian newspaper Kommersant were unusual because Russia and Kazakhstan rarely deviate from the official narrative that they are allies, even if Central Asian countries try to balance relationships with other big powers. Also, while Tokayev and Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoy the same status as state leaders, Lavrov occupies a lower level of authority and challenging the Kazakh president could be viewed in some diplomatic circles as out of line. The source of the disagreement goes back to 2022, as war raged between Russian invasion forces and Ukrainian troops. Tokayev warned about the contradiction between the United Nations principles of territorial integrity and the right to self-determination, saying the latter principle could lead to “chaos” if more and more states are allowed to emerge. He indicated that Luhansk and Donetsk, Russia-backed regions of eastern Ukraine that declared themselves republics, appeared to exemplify the problem. Putin did not respond publicly to Tokayev’s comments at the time. But Lavrov, asked about them by Kommersant, said they were wrong and cited the example of European colonial powers that didn’t represent people in territories they controlled. “I remember this speech by the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. I do not agree with him,” Lavrov said. “We later explained our position to our Kazakh friends. For him, there is only the right to territorial integrity. But I say again: if you are members of the U.N., you must respect the Charter in its entirety. I gave the example of decolonization, which is exactly what was written in the Declaration on Principles Governing Relations between States.” Russia itself has faced criticism that the war in Ukraine is a neo-colonial adventure designed to restore some of the reach it had as the center of the Soviet Union and the Russian empire prior to that. These arguments aside, Lavrov’s blunt remarks to a major Russian media outlet got some attention in Kazakhstan. “What surprised us was that he was not very diplomatic toward President Tokayev,” said Nargis Kassenova, a senior fellow and director of the Central Asia program at Harvard University’s Davis Center. She spoke on Wednesday in a Zoom conference on Central Asian perspectives on the Russo-Ukraine war that was organized by the Center for the National Interest, a public policy group based in Washington DC. Kassenova said Lavrov’s comments were an example of the “more assertive rhetoric” coming from Russia, which she said could relate to growing signs of a rapprochement between Russia and the United States. The Trump administration has appeared to align with some Russian viewpoints as it pushes for a ceasefire in Ukraine, while becoming more antagonistic toward traditional European allies. Medet...

Kyrgyzstan Sets Date for 2027 Presidential Election

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov has submitted a draft law to parliament establishing the official date for the country’s next presidential election. The parliamentary committee on constitutional legislation has approved the proposal in all three readings. According to the newly adopted law, the presidential election will take place on January 24, 2027, in line with amendments that designate the fourth Sunday of January as the official election date in the year the president’s term expires. Under the current Constitution, the president of Kyrgyzstan is elected for a single six-year term, with no possibility of re-election. President Japarov was elected on January 28, 2021, and later initiated constitutional reforms, including a nationwide referendum that expanded presidential powers. Changes to Parliamentary Elections The same parliamentary committee has also approved a second reading of a draft law altering the electoral system for members of the Jogorku Kenesh (parliament). The reforms would eliminate single-mandate constituencies, moving to an entirely majoritarian, multi-member district model. Under the new system, 30 electoral constituencies will be established, with three deputies elected in each, bringing the total to 90 MPs, all elected on a majoritarian basis. Both political parties and self-nominated individuals will be able to field candidates. Notably, 30 of the 90 seats will be reserved for women, aimed at enhancing gender representation. Currently, Kyrgyzstan’s parliament is composed of 54 deputies elected by party lists and 36 by single-mandate districts. If approved in its final reading, the draft law would overhaul the country's mixed electoral model in favor of a purely constituency-based approach.

city toll plan entry fee Politics Transport

Kyrgyz Security Agency Condemns Osh Mayor’s City Toll Plan

Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security (SCNS) has sharply criticized a controversial proposal by the mayor of Osh, the country's second-largest city, to introduce an entry fee for vehicles arriving from other regions. Mayor Jenishbek Toktorbayev raised the idea earlier this week during a municipal meeting focused on identifying new sources of revenue for the city budget. Arguing that Osh cannot rely indefinitely on central government support from Bishkek, Toktorbayev floated the possibility of charging motorists for access to the city. According to the mayor, Osh is home to over 500,000 residents, with the population exceeding 800,000 when accounting for daily inflows from neighboring areas. “About 56,000 vehicles enter Osh each day, leading to traffic jams, accidents, and air pollution,” he said. Toktorbayev proposed charging 50–100 KGS (approximately $0.60-$1.15) per car and 100-150 KGS per truck, estimating that such fees could generate around 2 million KGS daily. This could add up to an additional 3 billion KGS (roughly $34.5 million) in annual revenue for the city budget. However, the SCNS issued a strong rebuke, calling the idea unacceptable. In a statement cited by local media, the agency warned that the financial burden would disproportionately affect ordinary citizens, particularly low-income families. It added that higher delivery costs would likely be passed on to consumers, driving up prices for goods and services. The Committee urged all mayors and local officials to refrain from proposing such "crazy ideas" and instead focus on addressing the real challenges facing their constituents. Following public backlash and the SCNS statement, the Osh municipal government's Facebook page, which previously contained details about the mayor’s proposal, has become inaccessible. The notion of charging vehicle entry fees is not new in Kyrgyzstan. Last year, a similar proposal was floated for Bishkek as a potential solution to the capital’s worsening traffic congestion. However, President Sadyr Japarov rejected the idea, instead ordering the expansion of road infrastructure and the construction of new parking facilities. The Times of Central Asia has previously reported on Mayor Toktorbayev’s active economic agenda. Notably, his urban development plans have sparked public opposition, including from the head of the Russian Orthodox Church in Kyrgyzstan, who urged city authorities not to demolish a historic cemetery to make way for a new road.

Russia Politics U.S.A

Opinion: How Central Asia Has Strengthened Ties with the West Since 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the relationship between Russia and Central Asia. Russia’s decision to invade a neighboring country, and the devastation and destruction that followed, has forced Central Asia to reconsider its relationship with the Russian Federation. Russia is no longer seen as an “invincible superpower,” meaning it cannot be relied on to protect other members of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). In addition, the U.S. and European countries have levied heavy sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has attempted to evade these sanctions by conducting business with third parties, but the international community has warned several organizations and countries not to partake in these relations. Otherwise, should these businesses and countries opt to help Russia, then the international community has said that it will impose stiff penalties on these Russian intermediaries as well. Given these events, the Central Asian states have now been actively pursuing new relationships beyond Russia to bolster national, economic, and energy security within the region. During this process, China has attempted to assert itself as Central Asia’s new ally. Like Russia, China already has a significant trade relationship with Central Asia. In addition, China is Central Asia’s largest gas consumer, meaning the Chinese have attempted to force Central Asia into an economic and energy partnership. Despite this relationship, the countries of Central Asia have opted not to increase their reliance on China. Instead, recent developments have led them to improve their relations with the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. But how has the West strengthened its relationship with Central Asia since 2022? Take, for example, the United States. When Russia’s invasion began in February 2022, the then U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with foreign ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to discuss the war. During their meeting, Secretary Blinken stated that the United States supports Central Asia’s “sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.” He also said that the United States will continue to strengthen its relationship with the region. Since this meeting, Blinken has met with foreign ministers from Central Asia on several occasions in 2023 and 2024, where they further discussed how Central Asia can “develop the strongest possible capacities for their own security, their growing economic prosperity, and the strength and resilience of their societies.” Furthermore, U.S. President Joe Biden met with senior officials from Central Asia. During his meeting with his Central Asian counterparts in September 2023, Biden said that the United States would help “invest in and develop Central Asia’s energy infrastructure.” The United States also established a new business initiative with Central Asia, where the United States has provided hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to the region. Then, during the United States-Central Asia Trade Investment Framework Council in June 2024, the United States and the Central Asian states discussed new investment opportunities and how they could diversify trade. These discussions were well received, and the United States called for future engagements between it and Central...

China Politics USA Trade War Trump Administration

How Trump’s Trade War on China Affects Central Asia

When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on China and the European Union could have severe consequences not only for Brussels and Beijing, but also for economies around the world. Central Asia is no exception, as it could easily be caught in the crossfire. Although no country in Central Asia sees the United States as its major economic partner, Trump’s trade war with the EU and China is expected to impact all Central Asian nations in one way or another. Their strong economic ties with China and the growing EU presence in the region were once seen as a strategic advantage. Now, it seems to represent a double-edged sword. As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all Central Asian states have sought to strengthen economic relations with Beijing and Brussels. Their partnerships with China and the EU have grown through trade and investments, but Washington’s tariffs on Chinese and European goods could result in a reduction in demand for various items in Central Asia. Trump’s tariff policy could also give Beijing certain leverage over Washington in the strategically important region. According to Mark Temnycky, Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center, as a way to counter the impact of U.S. tariffs, the Chinese could increase their trade and energy relations with the countries of Central Asia. “This would further accelerate China’s relationship with Central Asia, and it could result in the regional states becoming more dependent on the Chinese for trade. Given the proximity of China to Central Asia, this may also result in the regional nations reducing their trade relations with the European Union as well as with the United States, as they favor Chinese prices,” Temnycky told The Times of Central Asia in an interview. U.S. bilateral trade in the region has never been particularly strong. The exception is Kazakhstan – the region’s largest economy – which is the only country in Central Asia whose trade with the U.S. exceeds one billion dollars. According to official statistics, in 2024 America’s total goods trade with Kazakhstan was estimated at $3.4 billion. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan combined have a lower trade volume with the United States than Kazakhstan. But all that is just a drop in the ocean compared to the $89.4 billion trade China reached with Central Asian in 2023. “Trump’s tariff policy could lead to an even greater Central Asian states’ dependency on China, potentially creating a Chinese monopoly on Central Asian trade and energy. In other words, regional countries would no longer have a diversified economy and market, thus tightening China's control over the area,” Temnycky stressed. That, however, does not necessarily mean that Beijing will, in the long term, benefit from Washington’s tariff policy. According to Tyler Schipper, an economist and Associate Professor at the University of St. Thomas, China is “arguably at one of its economically weakest points in the last several decades,” which means that any trade war with the...