Climate Change Adaptation Strategy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle Corridor

How the Shrinking Caspian Sea Affects the Middle Corridor’s Potential

Paradoxically, the Caspian Sea is becoming one of Eurasia’s most important transport hubs at a time when its falling water level is creating growing constraints on navigation. As sanctions disrupt traditional trade routes through Russia, countries are investing in the Middle Corridor as an alternative link between Asia and Europe. Yet the continuing decline in sea level is limiting shipping capacity and increasing the risks and costs associated with long-term infrastructure projects. The first Caspian Environmental Summit, held in Turkmenistan on October 9, 2026, drew attention to the scale of these changes. Between 2000 and 2025, the Caspian Sea shrank by more than 16,000 square kilometers, while in some areas the shoreline receded by tens of kilometers. How the Caspian’s Falling Water Level Affects Freight The Middle Corridor, linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe, is seen as a promising route for diversifying international trade. Its development can reduce shippers’ dependence on individual transport routes and improve economic ties among countries in the region. According to the World Bank’s latest study, more than $25 billion in investment in the corridor’s core physical infrastructure will be needed through 2040. An additional $30 billion could be required for enabling infrastructure and services. The bank estimates that if infrastructure investment is combined with institutional reforms, freight volumes along the corridor could quadruple and travel times could fall by about two-thirds by 2040. A study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) notes that insufficient depths are already preventing vessels from being fully loaded, reducing transport efficiency and increasing costs. Large-scale dredging was carried out at the Port of Kuryk in 2024. Over four months, around one million cubic meters of material were removed, and the depth of the operational port area was increased to 7–8 meters, according to the port operator. This made it possible to load vessels to full capacity. Meanwhile, major dredging work is underway at Aktau, where 1.3 million cubic meters of material are to be removed to increase water depths to 6–7 meters. The work is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. Dredging, however, can only maintain the operation of individual port facilities, while further declines in the sea level may require repeated work or the reconstruction of berths. Where draft restrictions prevent full loading, transport companies may need to make more voyages to carry the same volume of cargo, increasing spending on fuel, crews, maintenance, and port operations. Constraints on the maritime section can also lead to delays for railcars and containers and disrupt transshipment schedules. These disruptions reduce the predictability of deliveries along the entire route. Similar problems are emerging on the western coast of the Caspian. Falling water levels are reducing vessel cargo capacity at Azerbaijani ports and oil terminals and requiring additional dredging. Infrastructure for Decades Ahead According to the OECD study, which cites World Bank climate projections, under a high-emissions scenario in which the Caspian water level falls by about five meters between...

Water Governance

“Water Insecurity Is Not Experienced Equally”: Why Scarcity Is Also a Social Problem

A water crisis begins long before a river runs dry. Across Central and South Asia, retreating glaciers and the overuse of groundwater are putting supplies under growing pressure. Environmental sociologist Devendraraj Madhanagopal argues that the more revealing question is often who gets the water that remains. An assistant professor at XIM University’s School of Sustainability, Madhanagopal has studied climate adaptation among fishing communities on India’s southern coast. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, he draws on that research to discuss why water scarcity can deepen social inequalities in the Aral Sea region. Giving local people more responsibility for managing water without the resources or authority to act, he warns, can make matters worse. TCA: Glacier retreat and changes in snow cover are increasingly affecting water security in both Central and South Asia. However, these processes are often discussed mainly from environmental or hydrological perspectives. In your view, which social consequences are currently underestimated? How could changing water availability affect local communities, agriculture, employment, and migration? Dr. Madhanagopal: Before discussing the availability of water at the country, regional, or continental level, we also need to focus on the social and cultural dimensions of water and on how available water is distributed among different social groups. Communities have historically developed customary institutions, informal rules, practices and local leadership structures to share and distribute water resources. Many of these arrangements have gradually weakened over recent decades in Asia with the rise of resource-intensive development. At the same time, governments in India and Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, have increasingly recognized that water security requires the effective management of complex and interconnected systems. Institutions have been established, and governments increasingly seek support from think tanks, research organizations, and NGOs to address the socio-political and governance dimensions of water management. Nevertheless, significant knowledge and governance gaps remain. Glacier retreat and changes in snow cover are receiving increasing attention from scientists and policymakers. However, discussions about water governance still tend to focus on macro-level transboundary disputes, glacier retreat, and technocentric adaptation, including efficiency improvements and infrastructure. Much less attention is given to social inequalities, power, politics, and conflicts over access to water. This matters because water insecurity is not experienced equally. We need to ask who gets access to water, who bears the burden of scarcity, and how marginalized groups experience water insecurity. Lessons from previous water conflicts and governance failures have not always been adequately incorporated into planning and monitoring in India and many Central Asian countries. We also often view Central Asia primarily through geopolitical frameworks rather than environmental ones. Policy discussions should pay greater attention to interconnected river basins and the diverse environmental conditions across the region. Research and policymaking should examine how climate change and water insecurity affect agriculture, employment, and migration at both local and regional levels. Policymakers should also recognize that water insecurity can intensify local conflicts over shared resources and exacerbate existing inequalities, including gender inequality. These challenges ultimately require localized as well as regional responses. [caption...

Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Kyrgyzstan Climate Resilience the Target of New Forest Restoration Project

In spring 2026, more than 400,000 forest and fruit tree seedlings were planted over roughly 500 hectares of land across Kyrgyzstan under a project overseen by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The project, Carbon Sequestration through Climate Investments in Forests and Pastures in the Kyrgyz Republic, began in 2023. Financed by the Green Climate Fund, it aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, while supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation. According to FAO in Kyrgyzstan, the community-based planting activities included a wide variety of trees – Tian Shan spruce, juniper, walnut, almond, poplar, apple, apricot and plum. The species were selected because they are well adapted to Kyrgyzstan’s climatic conditions and have high resilience and carbon-sequestration potential. The project gives special attention to strengthening the capacity of local communities. It provides seedlings, fencing materials and, where required, drip irrigation systems, while local communities contribute labor and participate in establishing planting sites. Planting on municipal land is organized by local self-government bodies, while work inside the State Forest Fund is carried out by local forestry units. The four districts selected for the project – Ak-Talaa, Suzak, Toguz-Toro and Uzgen – were chosen because of their high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change in Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn, Jalal-Abad and Osh regions. According to climate observations covering the past 27 years, the average annual temperature in these areas has increased by 1.5°C. Several districts have experienced declining precipitation levels, alongside an increasing frequency of climate-related disasters, including landslides and mudflows. The project is part of a wider effort to help rural communities adapt to climate pressure in Kyrgyzstan. In 2025, TCA reported on the use of artificial glaciers to support farmers in water-scarce areas, where controlled winter ice accumulation can provide additional irrigation water during the growing season. Nor is this Kyrgyzstan’s only collaboration with the FAO on climate and land management. In April 2025, the FAO and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development launched a separate initiative, Greening Kyrgyzstan’s Economy: Know More, Act Better, Enhance Results, which uses geographic information system technology to improve farmland monitoring, support climate-smart agriculture and strengthen food security. Climate concerns have also become increasingly visible around Lake Issyk-Kul, one of Kyrgyzstan’s most important natural landmarks. TCA has reported that melting glaciers, changing precipitation patterns and more frequent extreme weather pose long-term risks the Issyk-Kul basin, with possible consequences for water resources, agriculture, tourism and energy security. Although the latest planting figures concern forests and orchards, the wider project also covers pasture management, a central issue in rural Kyrgyzstan, where overgrazing and land degradation have put pressure on mountain ecosystems. Planned measures include rehabilitating access roads and bridges to remote pastures, building livestock watering points, establishing shelterbelts, developing pasture grass seed nurseries, and introducing rotational grazing practices. The project is expected to sequester more than 19.8 million tons of CO₂ equivalent over a 20-year period. This represents 7.6% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions and 22.6% of emissions from the agricultural sector. Under the...

Ecology

Turning the Tide and Tackling Pollution in Uzbekistan: Insights from the Head of Environmental Policy

In recent years, air pollution in Uzbekistan has become an issue of growing concern, while the drying up of the Aral Sea continues to draw global attention. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Farruh Sattarov, Head of the Environmental Policy Department at the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection and Climate Change of the Republic of Uzbekistan, about the country’s environmental challenges and the ministry’s efforts to raise public awareness. TCA: Can you briefly describe the main projects currently being implemented by the Ministry of Ecology? Sattarov: To improve the environmental situation, we are working on several major projects. One key initiative is a $115 million investment project with the U.S. company, Sayar LLC, to generate alternative thermal energy from medical waste. This project will process 96,000 tons of medical waste annually, producing 320 GWh of thermal energy. Another significant effort focuses on improving air quality in Tashkent. In collaboration with South Korea’s Sejin G&E Co., Ltd, we are investing $55 million to generate 16 MW of electricity per year from landfill gas at the Akhangaran and Maydontol municipal waste sites. Additionally, we are partnering with the Asian Development Bank on a $60 million waste management project. This includes supplying special equipment, mobile laboratories, and waste containers to sanitation enterprises in Karakalpakstan and other regions. [caption id="attachment_28298" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Farruh Sattarov; image: Ministry of Ecology of Uzbekistan[/caption] TCA: What are the priority areas for improving Uzbekistan’s environmental policy? Sattarov: Our environmental strategy is guided by the Concept of Environmental Protection of the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2030, which was approved in 2019. Its main goals include improving air quality, promoting sustainable economic growth through eco-friendly technologies, and ensuring efficient natural resource management. In 2025, our focus will be on the “Year of Environmental Protection and Green Economy.” As part of the “Uzbekistan - 2030” strategy, we are developing 30 environmental protection laws, which are currently open for public discussion. TCA: What measures are being taken to combat air pollution? Sattarov: In 2024, we took several key steps. We installed or upgraded dust and gas cleaning equipment at 188 enterprises and required 99.5% efficiency filtration systems at 24 new factories, preventing 8,500 tons of harmful emissions. In terms of targeting vehicle emissions, during the “Clean Air” campaign, we inspected 407,000 vehicles, preventing 256.9 tons of pollutants from entering the atmosphere. As part of the “Green Space” project, we planted 11.8 million trees around high-emission industrial sites. We also staged “Carless Day” events in Tashkent, Nukus, and other cities which helped reduce emissions by 5,800 tons, and eased traffic congestion. In 2025, we plan to modernize pollution controls at 122 major enterprises, inspect 500,000 vehicles as part of a new “Clean Air” campaign, and plant ten million more trees in and around industrial areas. TCA: What international initiatives does Uzbekistan support on climate change? Sattarov: Uzbekistan is actively involved in both global and regional climate initiatives. In regards to the Paris Agreement, we are developing our third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0)...

International Finance

AIIB Approves $250 Million to Support Uzbekistan’s Climate Transition

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has approved a $250 million program to support Uzbekistan’s transition to a green and sustainable economy. The funding will help Uzbekistan achieve its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 35% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, and foster sustainable economic growth. The program focuses on three key areas. First, it aims to strengthen governance by improving climate policies and integrating climate goals into national decision-making processes. Second, it addresses better management of water and land resources, reduces climate risks, and supports economic development. Finally, the program promotes low-carbon solutions in energy, transportation, and e-mobility, with a strong emphasis on energy efficiency and sustainable practices. The initiative encourages state-owned enterprises to adopt climate risk disclosure practices and expand renewable energy projects. AIIB Vice President Konstantin Limitovskiy emphasized the importance of the collaboration between AIIB, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Uzbekistan. “By integrating climate priorities into economic planning, enhancing adaptation measures, and driving decarbonization in critical sectors like energy and transport, this program plays a key role in supporting Uzbekistan’s efforts to implement its 2030 national strategy and fulfill its Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement,” he said. Kanokpan Lao-Araya, the ADB Country Director for Uzbekistan, highlighted that climate change presents a substantial challenge to the country’s long-term economic stability. She emphasized that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) are collaborating to support Uzbekistan in achieving resilient, inclusive, and low-carbon economic growth. Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Economy and Finance will lead the program, with support from other government agencies. AIIB and ADB will oversee its implementation to ensure it aligns with Uzbekistan’s broader development goals.

Climate Change

ADB Launches ‘Glaciers to Farms’ Initiative to Combat Climate Change in Central Asia

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has unveiled a new regional initiative, Glaciers to Farms, aimed at promoting sustainable water management and food security in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Pakistan. The program addresses the severe effects of accelerated glacial melt caused by climate change. Backed by the Green Climate Fund (GCF), ADB will conduct risk assessments of glacial melt in Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to establish a scientific and technical foundation for the program. Regional Cooperation for Glacier Preservation On November 14 in Baku, Azerbaijan, a declaration of support for glacier preservation was signed by several regional leaders: Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Mukhtar Babayev, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Yerlan Nyssanbayev, Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Natural Resources, Ecology and Technical Supervision Meder Mashiev, Tajikistan’s Committee on Environmental Protection Chairman Bahodur Sheralizoda, and Uzbekistan’s Minister of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change Aziz Abdukhakimov. They were joined by ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa and GCF Chief Investment Officer Henry Gonzalez. “As melting glaciers change water flows, disrupt lives, and destroy ecosystems, we must act now,” said Asakawa. “As Asia and the Pacific’s climate bank, we are pleased to be joined by key partners to launch this program to drive international collaboration and deliver results where they matter most—on the ground, in communities at risk.” The Urgent Need for Action Temperatures in the region are expected to rise by up to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100. The resulting loss of glacial mass poses a dire threat to ecosystems, jeopardizing water supplies for agriculture and hydropower and endangering the livelihoods of over 380 million people. The Glaciers to Farms program aims to mobilize up to $3.5 billion in funding from ADB, GCF, governments, development partners, and the private sector. Beyond investments in water and agriculture, the program will prioritize vulnerable communities in fragile mountain regions that are most threatened by glacial melt. Global and Regional Efforts The United Nations General Assembly has declared 2025 the International Year of Glacier Preservation, with Tajikistan set to host the International Conference on Glaciers’ Preservation in Dushanbe next year. At a high-level event in Baku on November 12, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon underscored the importance of preventing further glacier melt and preserving fragile ecosystems. Rahmon highlighted the establishment of the International Trust Fund for the Preservation of Glaciers under the United Nations’ auspices and noted the UN’s recent adoption of a resolution—initiated by Tajikistan and France—declaring 2025-2034 the Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences. This resolution calls for enhanced efforts to safeguard glaciers globally. Rahmon also proposed creating a Regional Coordination Center for Glaciology in Dushanbe under the World Meteorological Organization’s guidance. The center would study the impact of climate change on glaciers in collaboration with development partners.