Crude Oil - The Times Of Central Asia

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Caspian Pipeline Consortium

CPC Reportedly Stops Accepting Kazakh Oil as Storage Tanks Reach Capacity After Tanker Attacks

Citing three industry sources, on July 21 Reuters said the Caspian Pipeline Consortium had stopped accepting crude from Kazakhstan after tanker attacks halted Black Sea loadings. Two of the sources said the terminal's storage tanks were full. CPC has so far declined to comment. The stoppage marks a sharper disruption than the loading suspension announced on July 20. LSEG ship-tracking data showed that at least two tankers due to collect crude changed direction. Chevron owns 15% of CPC, while ExxonMobil is also a shareholder through Mobil Caspian Pipeline Company. Chevron told Reuters that "Chevron continues to monitor the situation at CPC. The safety and security of personnel remain our top priority." ASIA was one of the tankers struck before loadings were suspended. It was hit on July 19 while loading Tengizchevroil crude at the CPC terminal. Following the attack on ASIA, a Chevron spokesperson told The Times of Central Asia: “Chevron is aware of reports of an incident involving a vessel loading at Caspian Pipeline Consortium facilities near Novorossiysk. All crew are safe, and the vessel remains stable. The vessel has been moved to a safe anchorage, and we are coordinating with the ship operator and relevant authorities. There has been no impact to TCO operations or exports. Further questions regarding CPC operations should be directed to CPC.” As of early July 22, no producer had announced new output cuts in response to the CPC halt. The intake stoppage nevertheless removes the main export outlet for crude from Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. The 1,510-kilometer pipeline carries oil from western Kazakhstan to the terminal near Novorossiysk. Terminal tanks normally buffer crude flows before tankers load offshore, but once they are full, the system has little room to receive additional oil. A prolonged shutdown could force producers to reduce output. Kazakhstan has not confirmed such reductions. CPC oil supplies fell 7% from May to 1.699 million barrels a day in June. Reuters linked the fall to a late-May accident at Tengiz and lower Russian volumes. The route handles about 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and almost 2% of global oil supply. The latest halt followed attacks on four tankers over four days. Nordic Zenith was hit on July 17 while approaching the terminal empty. ASIA and NISSOS IOS were struck on July 19 while loading Kazakh crude. NISSOS IOS was loading crude from Kashagan B.V. and Maten. Loadings briefly resumed that evening. A drone then struck NELSA at SPM-1 on July 20. A fire broke out on deck and in several compartments. CPC evacuated 20 of the ship's 22 crew members by tugboat, while the captain and chief officer remained aboard. The tanker stayed afloat; no casualties or oil spill were recorded, and the crude in its cargo tanks did not ignite. The NELSA was carrying Russian Urals crude, according to S&P Global shipping data. CPC then suspended oil loading. Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry said it remained in contact with the consortium while specialists assessed the vessel and the consequences of the strike....

druzhba pipeline

South American Crude Reaches German Refinery via Poland After Russia Halts Oil Transit from Kazakhstan

South American crude oil has been delivered to Germany’s PCK refinery in Schwedt via Poland, providing an alternative supply route after Russia halted the transit of crude from Kazakhstan through the Druzhba pipeline earlier this year. Poland’s UNIMOT Group said its subsidiary, UNIMOT Paliwa, imported the seaborne cargo through the Baltic port of Gdańsk before transporting it to the Schwedt refinery using Poland’s PERN pipeline network. The shipment comes after Russia suspended the transit of crude from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline on May 1. The route had become increasingly important after Germany stopped importing Russian oil following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s pipeline operator, Transneft, cited technical constraints as the reason for the suspension. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak later told reporters that Germany’s rejection of Russian crude suggested the country no longer required those supplies. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry subsequently confirmed that exports to Germany through Druzhba had stopped on May 1. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said Kazakhstan shipped no crude to the PCK refinery in May through the Atyrau-Samara-Druzhba route. He said unofficial information from the Russian side linked the suspension to a lack of technical capacity, likely caused by recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Kazakhstan began supplying crude to the Schwedt refinery through Druzhba in 2023 as Germany sought to replace Russian oil. Exports rose steadily, reaching 1.5 million tons in 2024 and 2.146 million tons in 2025, up 44% year on year. Shipments totaled 730,000 tons in the first quarter of 2026. Annual exports had been expected to rise to about 2.5 million tons, enough to meet roughly 30% of the refinery’s crude requirements. Reuters reported in April, citing three industry sources, that Russia planned to halt oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany on May 1. The news agency said a complete suspension would remove about 17% of the crude processed annually by the PCK refinery, one of Germany’s largest. The loss would add uncertainty to the country’s fuel supply amid disruption in global energy markets. The PCK refinery supplies approximately 90% of the gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil consumed in Berlin and the neighboring state of Brandenburg. It also exports around 2 million tons of refined fuels annually to western Poland. German broadcaster RBB reported that the latest shipment arrived by tanker through the port of Gdańsk. According to the refinery’s works council, the crude is believed to have come from Guyana. Rosneft Deutschland, the refinery’s majority shareholder, has been under German government trusteeship since 2022. A company spokesperson confirmed the delivery, saying it would help maintain refinery operations at around 80% of capacity. UNIMOT Vice President Robert Brzozowski said the shipment represented more than a commercial transaction because Poland’s maritime and pipeline infrastructure supports fuel security on both sides of the German-Polish border. The delivery reflects Europe’s efforts to diversify crude supply routes after the disruption of crude transit from Kazakhstan through Russia. Germany is seeking alternative supplies for the PCK refinery. Kazakhstan has said the suspension will...

Oil Supply

Kazakhstan on Europe’s Oil Podium, but for How Long?

Kazakhstan has strengthened its position as one of the key suppliers of oil to the European Union, capitalizing on the redistribution of energy flows following the reduction of Russian crude imports. However, declining production and vulnerabilities in export infrastructure cast doubt on the country’s ability to maintain this position in the medium term. According to official EU data, the EU remains one of the world’s largest oil importers, meeting about 97% of its demand through external supplies. In 2025, EU countries imported approximately 435 million tonnes of crude oil worth more than €212 billion. The reduction in Russia’s share from 25.8% in 2021 to 2.2% in 2025 led to a significant redistribution of flows in favour of alternative suppliers, including the United States (14.6%), Norway (12.8%), and Kazakhstan (12.8%) by crude-oil import volume. Kazakhstan has been among the main beneficiaries of these changes. According to an Econovis Economic Research Laboratory report, the share of Kazakh supplies in European imports has increased for several consecutive years. This growth has been driven by strong demand from European refineries for light, low-sulfur CPC Blend crude. Alongside Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan has also strengthened its position, benefiting from Europe’s diversification efforts. A notable example is the Czech Republic, where, following the cessation of deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline, Azerbaijan accounted for more than 42% of oil imports in 2025, according to Czech import data. Kazakhstan ranked third in the Czech market with a share of around 18%, indicating the emergence of a new energy balance in the Caspian region. Despite this favorable external environment, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector has faced a significant downturn. According to government data, in the first quarter of 2026, oil and gas condensate production amounted to 19.7 million tonnes, 20% less than in the same period of 2025. Oil exports declined by approximately 22% to 15.3 million tonnes, while the annual export forecast stands at about 76 million tonnes. By mid-April, however, CPC exports had risen from February levels as Tengiz resumed production, suggesting that some of the early-year disruption had eased. The decline is linked to disruptions in the operations of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and temporary shutdowns at major fields, including Tengiz. The CPC remains the key export route for Kazakh oil to Europe, transporting most of the crude through the terminal in Novorossiysk. Economic analyst Olzhas Baidildinov said the consequences of attacks on the consortium’s infrastructure could have long-term implications. “Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan fell by 20% in the first quarter compared to January-March 2025, 19.7 million tonnes versus 24.6 million tonnes. Oil exports decreased by approximately 22% to 15.3 million tonnes. The export forecast for this year is 76 million tonnes,” he wrote on his Telegram channel. According to his estimates, the country will once again fail to surpass the psychologically significant threshold of 100 million tonnes of annual production. “As a result of the attacks on the CPC, at least 6 million tonnes of oil worth no less than $3.4 billion were...

Oil

Kazakhstan Begins Oil Exports to Hungary

Kazakhstan has shipped its first batch of crude oil to Hungary, marking a significant step in the deepening energy partnership between KazMunayGas (KMG), the country’s national oil and gas company, and Hungary’s MOL Group. According to KMG, 85,000 tons of crude were transported by sea from the Russian port of Novorossiysk to the Croatian port of Omisalj aboard the Alatau tanker, operated by Kazmortransflot, a KMG subsidiary. From there, the oil was transported via the Adriatic pipeline, operated by JANAF, Croatia’s state oil pipeline operator, to the Százhalombatta refinery in Hungary. Upon the tanker's arrival in Croatia, representatives of KMG, MOL Group, and JANAF convened to discuss further cooperation. Following the meeting, KMG and MOL Group signed a framework agreement outlining future oil supply arrangements. The deal broadens the scope of Kazakhstan’s oil exports to the European Union. Kazakhstan already supplies crude to Germany via the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline, which runs through Russian territory. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Hungary reached a preliminary agreement earlier this year to supply Kazakh oil to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline as well. The agreement was concluded in February during a meeting in Astana between Kazakhstan’s Minister of Energy, Almasadam Satkaliyev, and Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Péter Szijjártó. The two sides agreed to conduct trial shipments in 2025. MOL Group has been active in Kazakhstan for over two decades and has invested $200 million in the development of the Rozhkovskoye gas condensate field in western Kazakhstan.

oil export

Kazakhstan to Boost Oil Exports to Turkey via BTC Pipeline

Kazakhstan plans to increase crude oil exports to Turkey through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced following bilateral talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara. “Currently, 1.4 million tons of Kazakh oil are transported annually to Turkey through the BTC pipeline. We discussed the possibility of expanding volumes and welcomed Turkish Petroleum’s plans to enter the Kazakh market. Kazakhstan is also interested in Turkish companies’ investment potential and expertise in energy diversification and power plant construction. We are ready to implement large-scale joint projects,” Tokayev stated at a joint press conference. Kazakhstan began exporting oil via the BTC pipeline in 2008, initially at just 300,000 tons per year. Expansion has since been limited by the pipeline’s capacity, 50 million tons annually, with Kazakhstan allocated a quota of 1.5 million tons and by the restricted tanker fleet of KazTransOil, the transport subsidiary of the national oil and gas company KazMunayGas (KMG), which ships crude across the Caspian Sea from the port of Aktau. In 2022, President Tokayev prioritized the development of the Trans-Caspian corridor as part of Kazakhstan’s export diversification strategy. That same year, Azerbaijan signaled readiness to raise Kazakhstan’s BTC quota to 2.2 million tons. As a result, shipments surged 5.5-fold to 1.392 million tons in 2023 and surpassed 1.4 million tons in 2024. The government now aims to reach 1.5 million tons in 2025. During the Ankara visit, KMG Chairman Askhat Khasenov met with Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) President Ahmet Türkoğlu to discuss potential cooperation in exploration, transport, and oil and gas sector development. “Currently, KMG and TPAO working groups are assessing prospects for joint initiatives in geological exploration in Kazakhstan,” the press release stated. Khasenov emphasized that strengthening ties with Turkey’s leading energy firms aligns with Kazakhstan’s strategic foreign policy. He expressed confidence that enhanced collaboration with TPAO would boost economic relations between the two countries. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has encountered growing challenges in transporting oil via Russian ports due to new regulations and export bottlenecks.

Forecast

Opinion – Storm Clouds Over Kazakhstan: Oil Slump and Global Risks Threaten Economic Stability

The persistent decline in Brent crude prices is the latest sign of a looming 'perfect storm' for Kazakhstan’s economy, the largest in Central Asia. With the mining sector comprising nearly half of its GDP and oil as a cornerstone resource, the nation’s economic stability is facing a cascade of potential shocks. Oil Prices and Budget Vulnerability Kazakhstan is grappling with significant economic headwinds amid forecasts of a global recession and declining energy prices. In April 2025, OPEC+, including Kazakhstan, unexpectedly agreed to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day, pushing prices below $65 per barrel. Given the country's reliance on hydrocarbon exports, such price drops jeopardize state revenues. Analysts say Kazakhstan needs oil prices to remain above $42.30 per barrel in 2025 to maintain fiscal stability. However, the threat extends beyond oil. As energy journalist Oleg Chervinsky noted on his Telegram channel, global commodity prices across the board are falling, a signal that recession is imminent. “The bad news for Kazakhstan is that prices are dropping not only for oil but for all raw materials,” Chervinsky wrote. “JP Morgan estimates the global recession probability at 60%. Even though oil and gas are exempt from Donald Trump’s new tariffs, the broader protectionist policies could fuel inflation, curb growth, and escalate trade tensions”. Trump's Trade War and Kazakhstan President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs are designed to limit low-cost imports and incentivize domestic production. Kazakhstan has been hit with a 27% tariff, the highest among the Central Asian nations. Its strategic location within China’s Belt and Road Initiative positions it as a potential re-export hub, prompting higher trade scrutiny. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration has downplayed the immediate economic impact, noting that U.S.-bound exports account for less than 5% of total trade, and the country still holds a $1 billion trade surplus with the U.S. While the direct fallout may be limited, the broader implications of a global trade war could severely strain Kazakhstan’s economy. If a global recession takes hold, demand for Kazakhstan’s key exports, oil, uranium, and metals, will drop, dragging prices down further. Currency Pressures and Investor Retreat With shrinking export revenues, the tenge faces devaluation, leading to inflation, rising import costs, and weakened consumer purchasing power. In addition, recessions typically dampen foreign direct investment, especially in emerging markets like Kazakhstan, where perceived risk grows amid uncertainty. The China Factor The U.S.-China trade conflict is another critical variable. Trump’s strategy aims to undercut Beijing’s economic strength, but for Kazakhstan, China is its largest trading partner, representing over 15% of foreign trade. A slowdown in China would reduce demand for Kazakhstani raw materials and transit services. Such a downturn could also jeopardize President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s ambition to establish Kazakhstan as a vital trade corridor between China and Europe. While the Belt and Road Initiative is unlikely to collapse, reduced cargo flows would strain state revenues. China is also the primary buyer of Kazakhstan’s copper, aluminum, and ferroalloys. Any industrial slowdown there immediately impacts Kazakhstan's export volumes. Converging Risks Taken...