Demographics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Demographics

Kazakhstan’s Birth Rate Continues to Fall Amid Demographic Concerns

Kazakhstan is witnessing a sustained decline in its birth rate despite government efforts to stimulate demographic growth. In their latest report, analysts at Ranking.kz have explored why more Kazakhstanis are choosing to have fewer or no children, and what factors are driving this downward trend. Sharp Decline in Newborn Numbers According to official data, 77,300 children were born in the first quarter of 2025, a 15.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. This continues a multi-year decline: annual births dropped from 446,500 in 2021 to 365,900 in 2024. Kazakhstan’s total fertility rate also reflects this trend. After peaking at 23.5 births per 1,000 people in 2021, the rate has steadily fallen to 18.2 in 2024 and further to 15.4 in early 2025. Regionally, Mangistau and Turkestan remain the most fertile areas, with 21.3 births per 1,000 people, followed by Shymkent (19.7). The lowest rates are in North Kazakhstan (8.5), Kostanay (9.5), and East Kazakhstan (9.6). Changing Attitudes Toward Parenthood A 2024 national survey shows a growing reluctance among citizens to expand their families. Over half (51.3%) of respondents said they already have children and do not plan to have more. Only 13% hoped to have two children, 9.1% three, and 10.5% four or more. Meanwhile, 3.9% said they do not intend to have children at all, a sentiment more common in urban areas (4.5%) than in rural regions (3%). Among urban parents, 52.4% said they would not have more children, compared to 49.5% in rural communities. UN projections suggest Kazakhstan's demographic decline will persist. The fertility rate is expected to dip to 19 in 2025, 17.6 in 2034, and continue falling to 11.4 by 2100, raising concerns about aging and the growing demographic burden. Economic and Medical Challenges According to the platform "Children of Kazakhstan", economic hardship remains a central factor. Rising costs for housing, healthcare, and education have made child-rearing increasingly unaffordable, prompting many to delay or reconsider parenthood altogether. Societal values are also shifting. More young Kazakhs are prioritizing education, careers, and personal development. Women, in particular, are pursuing higher education and professional goals before starting families. Healthcare issues have further exacerbated the trend. The number of women diagnosed with infertility rose to 29,100 in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total for all of 2023 (28,500). This figure has climbed steadily from just 10,000 in 2019. Male infertility is also rising, though the numbers are significantly lower. Reported cases increased from 36 in 2019 to 119 in 2021, before fluctuating slightly to 108 in 2023.

Demographics

Shifting Populations: The Struggle to Sustain Northern and Eastern Kazakhstan

While Kazakhstan's total population continues to increase, certain regions are facing declines driven by migration and demographic shifts. The birth rate within the nation has also reached its lowest ebb in eleven years, further exacerbating these changes. By 2050, Kazakhstan's population is projected to hit 26.3 million, with much of this growth concentrated in major cities. Currently, the population exceeds 20.2 million, with a net increase of 189,376 people in the first nine months of 2024. However, certain regions - North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Abay, and Zhetysu - are seeing decreases due to high migration rates and lower-than-average birth rates. In North Kazakhstan, where mortality rates surpass birth rates, numbers fell by 0.89% in the first six months of 2024 alone, with an overall drop of 23% in the past few years. The regions of North and East Kazakhstan have seen a steady decline in population over the past few decades, a trend influenced by a combination of economic, demographic, and policy-related factors. Historically reliant on industries such as mining, metallurgy, and agriculture, these areas faced severe economic disruption following independence, as state-run enterprises were privatized or shuttered. Many residents found themselves unemployed, with a lack of investment in modernizing industries and an uneven distribution of infrastructure development exacerbating the problem. Without a thriving job market, young professionals and skilled workers migrated in search of better opportunities, creating a brain drain and leaving behind an aging population. Today, insufficient economic diversification continues to make these regions less attractive to younger generations, who are drawn to cities like Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent, which offer employment opportunities, vibrant cultural scenes, and better education and healthcare. Internationally, the proximity of North Kazakhstan to Russia also resulted in substantial cross-border migration, with ethnic Russians and other Slavic minorities leaving Kazakhstan in large numbers, particularly in the years following independence. This trend was partly influenced by policies prioritizing the Kazakh language and identity, which made some minorities feel culturally marginalized or less confident in their long-term prospects in the country. During the Soviet era, regions like North Kazakhstan were agricultural powerhouses, thanks to programs like the Virgin Lands Campaign. However, the ecological degradation and economic mismanagement associated with these projects left lasting scars. Fertile land has become less productive, forcing many farmers to abandon their livelihoods. The decline of ecosystems due to overuse and climate change particularly affects East Kazakhstan, where poorly maintained infrastructure in rural areas has impacted resilience against environmental issues, further encouraging residents to leave. Initiatives it was hoped would encourage relocation from the densely populated south saw limited success. Addressing parliament in February 2024, Senate speaker Maulen Ashimbayev noted that despite programs like Serpin-2050, which provides free education, and Enbek, which offers job placements and rent support, results have been disappointing. Between 2017 and 2021, only 32,000 people relocated, with half unable to work. Population decline in North and East Kazakhstan reflects these regions' reliance on resource-heavy industries, lack of modernization, and uneven infrastructure development, bringing broader challenges...

Aging Population

By 2050, Nearly One-Fifth of Kazakhstan’s Population Will Be Over 60

Kazakhstan is on the cusp of a significant demographic transition. A recent report by the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF), the agency overseeing the country’s pension system, projects that by 2050, 19% of Kazakhstan’s population will be of retirement or pre-retirement age. The study, published on the UAPF website, reveals that as of January 1, 2025, Kazakhstan's population had surpassed 20.3 million. Of this total, 42.8% — approximately 8.7 million people — were under the age of 25. Another 48% (around 9.7 million) were between 25 and 65, while 9.2%, or about 1.9 million people, were over 65 and currently classified as pensioners. Overall, individuals aged 60 and older now make up 13.9% of the total population. According to UAPF forecasts, the national population is expected to grow to 26.3 million by the end of 2050. However, this growth will be accompanied by an aging trend. “This means that by 2050, on average, one in five Kazakhs will be aged 60 or older,” the report notes. This shift mirrors a broader global pattern of aging populations and declining birth rates. Life expectancy in Kazakhstan, which had declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, has rebounded significantly. It rose from 70.23 years in 2021 to 75.44 years in 2024. At the same time, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has decreased from 3.32 children per woman in 2021 to 2.80 in 2024, with projections indicating a further drop to 2.42 by 2050. “With the gradual decline in birth rates and increased life expectancy, fewer people are entering the labor market, and the imbalance between pensioners and the working-age population continues to grow,” UAPF analysts stated. The report also predicts a neutral migration balance by 2050, meaning the number of people emigrating will roughly equal those immigrating for permanent residence. This marks a shift from earlier decades of net inward migration. Since 1991, over 1.15 million ethnic Kazakhs born abroad have moved to Kazakhstan permanently, according to data previously reported by The Times of Central Asia. As Kazakhstan confronts these demographic realities, policymakers will need to consider long-term strategies to ensure the sustainability of its pension system and the vitality of its labor force.

Demographics

Kyrgyzstan on the Threshold of an Aging Population: Government Develops Active Longevity Program

Kyrgyzstan is approaching a demographic milestone as the proportion of elderly citizens grows. In response to this shift, the Ministry of Labor, Social Security, and Migration has developed the State Program of Active Longevity for 2025-2030, which has been submitted for public discussion. Demographic Trends and Projections According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s population at the beginning of 2024 stood at 7.162 million. Of this, 407,800 citizens (5.7%) were aged 65 and older. The United Nations (UN) classification considers a country to be “on the threshold of old age” when this age group comprises between 4% and 7% of the population. Once it exceeds 7%, the country is categorized as having an aging population. Forecasts suggest that by 2030, Kyrgyzstan’s 65+ population will be close to this threshold, and by 2050, it may reach 19%, while the proportion of children is expected to decline from 33% to 22%. Challenges of an Aging Society As the population ages, Kyrgyzstan faces several challenges, including: Declining workforce: A shrinking number of working-age citizens may place economic strain on the labor market. Increased demographic burden: Fewer workers supporting a growing elderly population could impact productivity and economic growth. Rising social security and healthcare costs: Increased demand for pensions, medical services, and elderly care will require policy adjustments. Labor market adaptation: Strategies will be needed to integrate older workers and extend their economic participation. Strengthening intergenerational ties: Social policies may need to promote solidarity between younger and older generations. The State Program of Active Longevity The State Program of Active Longevity (2025-2030) aims to establish strategic policies to enhance the quality of life for older citizens. The document outlines three key focus areas: Encouraging Active Aging: Initiatives to promote employment, volunteering, and social engagement among older adults. Ensuring Health and Social Well-being: Expanding access to healthcare, preventive medicine, and social support services. Creating Conditions for a Dignified Life in Old Age: Enhancing pension security, housing, and accessibility infrastructure for elderly citizens. With Kyrgyzstan on the cusp of demographic aging, long-term planning and policy reforms will be essential to ensure social and economic stability in the years ahead.

Society

Uzbekistan Continues to Lead Central Asian Fertility Rates

Four out of the five Central Asian countries are experiencing fertility declines, with the exception being Uzbekistan, where the total fertility rate (TFR) - the average number of children born to one woman in her lifetime - continues to rise. According to analytical data from Finprom.kz, in 2023, Uzbekistan's TFR was 3.4, the highest in the region. Tajikistan followed with a ratio of 3.1, Kazakhstan at 3.0, and Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan at 2.7 each. In a global context, Central Asia's fertility rates are still higher than average. According to OurWorldinData, the world TFR in 2023 was 2.3. By comparison, countries like the U.S., India, and China had rates between 1.2 and 2.2, while in some African countries such as Somalia or Niger, TFR exceeded 6. In absolute numbers, Uzbekistan led the region in births with 962,000 newborns in 2023 - a 14.3% increase from 2020. Kazakhstan ranked second with 388,400 births, although its birth rate continued to decline after a pandemic-era baby boom. The highest TFR per 1,000 people was also recorded in Uzbekistan (26.4), followed by Tajikistan (24.6) and Kazakhstan (19.5), where births have fallen for the second consecutive year. Despite declining fertility rates, Central Asia's population is growing steadily. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) projects the region's population to reach 80 million in 2025, marking a 2.2 million increase since 2020. Uzbekistan remains the most populous nation, accounting for 45.2% of the region's total population at 36.9 million, followed by Kazakhstan (20.3 million), Turkmenistan (8.1 million), and Kyrgyzstan (8.9 million). Population growth in the region is driven by natural increases, with annual rates of 2.5% in Uzbekistan, 1.9% in Tajikistan, 1.5% in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and 1.4% in Kyrgyzstan. These figures reflect stable demographic dynamics across Central Asia.

Demographics

Aging Kyrgyzstan: Economic Challenges and Empowering Seniors

According to the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, the country's population is aging quickly. Based on UN data, the agency predicts that the proportion of elderly people (65 and over) in Kyrgyzstan will significantly increase by 2030. According to the analysis, currently, 5.7% of the total population is elderly, and this figure may reach 8% by 2030. Speaking about the processes associated with an aging population, experts have highlighted social funds related to the payment of pensions, benefits, and other contributions to people who have finished their careers. Additionally, an aging population will produce fewer materials and public goods, and state tax revenues will decrease, which could lead to a decline in the country's standard of living. However, economist Kubanychbek Idinov sees this as a manageable problem. The 61-year-old believes that the increase in the average age is indicative of an improvement in Kyrgyzstan's standard of living. “The country's GDP is growing, and state budget spending on social projects is increasing. But we need to give pensioners more opportunities to work. This will be a great help to the revenue side of the budget. People who retire can work elsewhere. This allows them not to rely on their pensions alone, to have additional income,” Idinov told The Times of Central Asia. Most retirees in Kyrgyzstan continue to work. Idinov said they start small businesses or enterprises and pass on their experience to young people. According to official data, the country currently has about 150,000 working pensioners. “It is necessary at the state level to support trade unions' work in attracting retirees to work. It is possible to work at the level of local authorities. Then the issue of small pension growth will not be acute for people and the state,” Idinov said. On a related matter, Kyrgyz sociologists say that despite a slowdown, the country's population grew by almost half a million people (+7.8%) over the year. Kyrgyzstan remains the second-largest Central Asian country in terms of population growth after Tajikistan. “The increase in population, despite a slight decrease in the growth rate, is provided by the excess of births over deaths with a negative balance of external migration,” the report of the National Statistical Committee states. The large number of labor migrants returning home is also helping to combat the decrease in the number of able-bodied people. In 2007, experts from the UN Demography Department suggested evaluating countries as those with an old population if more than 7% of its citizens are over 65 years old.