Economic Growth - The Times Of Central Asia

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Business Climate

Kazakhstan Factories Under Strain as Costs Bite, Economy Shows Mixed Signals

Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector slipped further in August, with the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 47.9. That was down from 49.9 in July and 49.7 in June, keeping the index below the neutral 50 mark for a third straight month. It also marked the sharpest deterioration in manufacturing activity since March 2022, according to S&P Global and Freedom Holding Corp. From Highs to Lows The striking downturn comes on the heels of a banner year. In December 2024, the PMI reached a record 53.9, capping 11 straight months of expansion. Buoyed by post-pandemic recovery and government support, manufacturing output grew by 6.8% in 2024, the fastest pace since 2011, helping push GDP growth to 5%. But momentum cooled as 2025 began. The PMI slipped to 51.5 in January, reflecting slower expansion after the year-end surge. By June and July, it hovered just under 50, signaling stagnation. Seasonal shutdowns for repairs in August contributed to weaker output, but analysts say the slide points to deeper structural pressures. [caption id="attachment_36026" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Kazakhstan’s PMI peaked at 53.9 in December 2024 but slid steadily through 2025, falling into contraction territory below 50 by mid-year and hitting 47.9 in August — the sharpest deterioration since March 2022.[/caption] Orders Dry Up, Costs Rise The August report revealed broad-based weaknesses. New orders fell for the first time in 19 months, ending a growth streak that began in early 2024. The decline reflected lower demand from both domestic and export markets. With fewer orders, factories scaled back staffing and cut input purchases. At the same time, costs surged. A weak tenge and fuel inflation made imports more expensive, while logistics delays lengthened supplier delivery times. These pressures forced firms to raise output prices at a faster pace, risking competitiveness. “August saw another sharp decline in business activity in Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector,” said Yerlan Abdikarimov of Freedom Finance Global, which partners with S&P on the survey. He cited weak demand, volatile commodity markets, rising costs, and currency and tax pressures. Taxes have indeed become a burden. A new code passed in mid-2025 raised the extraction royalties on metals, hitting downstream metallurgy. Inflation stood at 12.2% in August 2025, with the National Bank keeping its policy rate high at 16.5% in a bid to tame prices. That leaves financing costly for businesses, resulting in squeezed margins and thinning confidence. The August survey showed business confidence at its lowest since 2021. While firms still expect growth over the next year, their optimism is increasingly cautious. Industry Responses and Government Initiatives Some executives see hope in the government’s industrial policy. A $400 million cotton-to-textile cluster is under construction with Chinese partners in Turkestan, aiming to process domestic cotton into textiles at scale. Officials say the project, due to start production by late 2025, will create thousands of jobs and expand exports. Light industries, such as textiles and apparel, posted strong growth in the first half of 2025, with clothing up about 5.6% and textiles 5.7% according to official data. Chemicals...

Economic Cooperation

Kyrgyzstan Seeks German Investment in Green Energy, Logistics, and Tourism

On August 26, the resort city of Cholpon-Ata on Lake Issyk-Kul hosted the Day of German Economy in Kyrgyzstan, alongside the 4th meeting of the Kyrgyz-German Business Council. Opening remarks were delivered by Adylbek Kasymaliyev, Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan, and Professor Reinhold Krämmel, Honorary Consul of Kyrgyzstan in Bavaria and Thuringia and Deputy Co-Chairman of the Business Council. Calls for Green Investment and Innovation Kasymaliyev highlighted Kyrgyzstan’s interest in attracting German investment and advanced technologies to modernize its industries, create jobs, and strengthen export potential. He identified key areas for cooperation, including renewable energy, green technologies, transport and logistics infrastructure, and the financial sector. Environmental issues featured prominently in the discussions. Kasymaliyev further emphasized the threat of rapidly melting glaciers, which he said "requires the consolidation of efforts and joint initiatives." “We know Germany as one of the most active defenders of nature. Unfortunately, environmental problems are worsening each year. Glaciers in our mountains are melting and shrinking drastically. Addressing such critical issues requires joint efforts,” he said. Youth and Education as Bridges of Cooperation Kasymaliyev also underlined the importance of youth in Kyrgyzstan’s development and in strengthening bilateral ties. He noted a growing interest among young Kyrgyz citizens in the German language, culture, and vocational education, elements he described as forming the foundation for long-term partnership. While acknowledging current progress, Kasymaliyev stressed that Kyrgyz-German economic relations have significant untapped potential. New Agreements and Sectoral Priorities Following the meeting, a memorandum of cooperation was signed between Kyrgyz Temir Jolu, the national railway company, and Rhenus SE & Co. KG to jointly explore logistics and transit infrastructure opportunities. Kasymaliyev also held bilateral talks with Michael Harms, Executive Director of the Eastern Committee of the German Economy. He underscored Germany’s growing importance as a trade partner, noting that bilateral trade had nearly quadrupled between 2020 and 2024. The Kyrgyz side presented several promising areas for German investment, including the IT sector, data center and logistics hub development, renewable energy and green hydrogen production, and mining. “Kyrgyzstan is fully committed to supporting German companies interested in launching investment projects in our country,” Kasymaliyev stated. Tourism Growth Highlighted Tourism was also spotlighted as a rising sector of bilateral engagement. Germany is now among Kyrgyzstan’s top tourism partners, with more than 23,000 German visitors recorded in 2024, and over 10,000 arriving in the first half of 2025 alone.

Migrant Remittances

Uzbek Migrants Send Home $4.8 Billion in Q2 2025

Uzbekistan’s Central Bank has reported that migrant workers sent home $4.8 billion in remittances during the second quarter of 2025. This marks a 21.4% increase compared to the same period last year, although it represents a slowdown from the 38.6% recorded in 2024. The Central Bank attributed the increase to stable exchange rates in host countries, higher wages, and continued economic activity. However, the report also noted varied growth by region. Remittances from the Baltic states saw the sharpest rise, up 65.6% year-on-year, while transfers from the United States, Russia, and Europe increased more modestly by 10.3%, 23.7%, and 26.9%, respectively. Inflows from Asia remained relatively unchanged. At the start of the year, Uzbekistan’s Embassy in Russia urged its citizens working abroad to consider returning home to participate in the construction of New Tashkent, an ambitious capital expansion project, according to Podrobno.uz. The embassy noted that companies involved in the project could offer jobs to approximately 10,000 workers across 38 professions. Demand is especially high for concrete workers, plasterers, plumbers, electricians, and bricklayers. Officials emphasized that the project provides an opportunity to earn decent wages while contributing to national development. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has remained the primary destination for labor migrants from Central Asia. Official Russian data suggests nearly four million citizens from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan currently reside in Russia, alongside an estimated 670,000 undocumented migrants. Anti-migrant sentiment has intensified in Russia following the terrorist attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall on March 22, 2024. In response, the Russian authorities have tightened migration regulations and increased enforcement.

Economic Growth

World Bank Warns of Slowing Tajikistan Economy

Tajikistan’s economic growth may slow in the coming years due to mounting foreign policy and regional risks, according to a new report from the World Bank. Vulnerability to External Shocks The report highlights several external vulnerabilities that could impact Tajikistan’s economy. These include shifts in Russia’s migration policies, heightened global instability, and ongoing armed conflicts. “Tighter migration policies and restrictions on Tajik workers in Russia threaten to significantly reduce remittance flows, leading to lower economic growth, increased poverty, and worsening fiscal and external balances,” the World Bank stated. Growing global protectionism is also expected to raise Tajikistan’s foreign trade costs. The report notes that recent U.S. tariff increases on imports from several of Dushanbe’s key trading partners have triggered retaliatory measures from countries like China. These developments could drive up import costs and intensify logistical pressures. Additionally, volatility in global commodity prices is expected to impact Tajik exports. While falling oil and raw material prices could reduce export earnings, especially for aluminum, zinc, and ores, high global gold prices in 2025 may provide a partial offset through increased revenues. Impact of Regional Conflicts The World Bank also warns that ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East could further disrupt global supply chains, raising energy and logistics costs. These challenges would translate into higher import prices for Tajikistan. Conversely, the report suggests that a potential easing of sanctions and normalization of relations between the U.S. and Russia could destabilize Central Asian economies. However, the implications of such a shift remain uncertain and difficult to forecast. Medium-Term Outlook Despite these headwinds, the World Bank expects Tajikistan’s economy to remain stable, albeit with a decelerating growth trajectory: 8.4% in 2024 7.0% in 2025 4.9% in 2026 4.7% in 2027 The projected slowdown is gradual and not expected to result in a recession. Similar concerns have been echoed by other institutions. The Asian Development Bank and the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development have also forecast a gradual slowdown in Tajikistan’s economic growth over the medium term.

Economic Growth

Opinion: Over the Past Eight Years, New Uzbekistan Has Absorbed Over $113 Billion in Foreign Investments

On the eve of the 34th anniversary of our country’s independence, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund finalized the 2025 consultations under Article IV of the IMF Agreement. The Fund’s main conclusion is that Uzbekistan’s economic outlook remains positive amid continued progress in the transition to a market economy. According to the published document, headline indicators are strong, including sustained growth, a reduced consolidated budget deficit, a narrower current account deficit, and an adequate level of international reserves. IMF staff note that the successful implementation of structural reforms supports a favorable baseline. Despite a high degree of uncertainty in global trade policy, the IMF projects real GDP growth will remain robust in the coming years. These trends reflect greater economic openness, ongoing industrialization, active investment policy, and measures designed to build the export potential of promising industries. The reform package - and the decisions already put into effect - aligns with available domestic resources and reserves, supporting long-term, sustainable development across the country and its regions. The commitment to irreversible market transformation allows Uzbekistan to combine targeted state support with space for private entrepreneurial initiative on the path to building a “New Uzbekistan.” In recent years, rising openness and growing investor confidence have driven a steady increase in capital formation. From 2017 to 2024, total foreign investment exceeded $113 billion, more than 80% of which comprised foreign direct investment and loans. Financing activity has been particularly strong in leading industries and the fuel and energy complex, accelerating industrialization in virtually every region. Deepening investment links with China, Russia, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, the United States, the United Kingdom, and others is bringing advanced technologies and expertise, modern management practices, expanded localization, and stronger export capacity to priority sectors and regions. These resources are primarily directed to technological upgrades and modernization of existing facilities, as well as the creation of new production sites. Over the past eight years, investment programs have launched more than 96,000 projects worth about $100 billion, creating 1.8 million jobs. In 2024 alone, the value of commissioned projects was nearly eight times higher than in 2017, while the number of jobs increased by 2.6 times. Active involvement by the Head of State has been pivotal. Since the start of this year, visits and high-level events have produced 366 investment agreements totaling $75 billion. Roadmaps have also been approved for 222 projects worth about $45 billion. At the IV Tashkent International Investment Forum held in June, agreements were reached on investments exceeding $30 billion for 144 joint projects. In April 2025, on the sidelines of the 5th International Industrial Exhibition “INNOPROM. Central Asia” in Tashkent, 43 additional investment agreements were signed, with plans to attract a further $1 billion to the industrial sector. Uzbekistan has also intensified outreach to the international community about project opportunities. This year, Investors’ Day events took place in 13 foreign countries, drawing representatives of 700 well-known companies. More than 200 investment projects worth $6 billion were presented to potential...

Issyk-Kul Forum

Kyrgyzstan and Russia Sign $270 Million in Agreements at Issyk-Kul Forum

At the seventh Kyrgyz-Russian Economic Forum on the shores of Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan and Russia signed nearly 30 agreements worth about US $270 million. The forum brought together around 1,000 representatives from government agencies, investment funds, businesses, and public organizations across member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). In his address, President Sadyr Japarov said Kyrgyzstan has maintained average annual economic growth of 9 per cent since 2022, the highest rate among countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States and the EAEU. He described the forum as a vital platform for strengthening cooperation, exchanging experience, and fostering direct business ties. He also stressed the importance of technological independence, protection of digital data, and the development of national IT infrastructure. The agreements span energy, industry, transport, aviation, agriculture, the digital economy, education, and logistics. They include a US $55 million contract for Airports of Kyrgyzstan to acquire aircraft from a Russian manufacturer, a US $2.8 million memorandum for the purchase of an electric cruise ship, supply agreements for tractors, trucks, metal products, and machine tools, and plans for a milk processing complex. Additional deals cover financing arrangements for Kyrgyz companies to issue securities on the Russian market, an investment agreement with the Eurasian Development Bank to support projects through the Russian-Kyrgyz Development Fund, and a commitment by the Kyrgyz Green Energy Fund to purchase electricity from Russian suppliers. Roscosmos and the Kyrgyz Ministry of Digital Development also signed a memorandum on the peaceful exploration of space. First Deputy Prime Minister Daniyar Amangeldiev noted that during Kyrgyzstan’s decade as an EAEU member, the country has seen improvements in socioeconomic indicators, a decline in unemployment, and continued growth in priority sectors.