Interview with Umud Shokri: Can Kazakhstan Reduce Its Dependence on Russian Oil Export Routes?
Kazakhstan sent more than four-fifths of its oil exports in 2025 through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which crosses Russia to the Black Sea. Repeated disruptions have exposed the risks of relying so heavily on a single route. While alternative shipments across the Caspian Sea are growing, volumes remain small. Falling water levels and higher transport costs complicate efforts to expand these alternative routes, while tensions around Iran pose risks to routes farther south. These challenges extend beyond Kazakhstan. The country is Central Asia’s largest oil producer, and its export decisions affect trade and energy infrastructure across the Caspian region, the South Caucasus and Europe. Meanwhile, plans to export renewable electricity across the Caspian could create new connections between Central Asia and European energy markets. To examine the region’s options, The Times of Central Asia spoke with Dr. Umud Shokri, a Washington-based energy strategist and Visiting Senior Fellow at George Mason University. He is the author of U.S. Energy Diplomacy in the Caspian Sea Basin (Springer, 2021) and is preparing two books: Hormuz and the Geopolitics of Eurasian Energy Infrastructure (Routledge) and Iran’s Energy Transition Under Constraint: War, Sanctions, and Systemic Vulnerability (Springer). TCA: How is Central Asia’s role in Eurasian energy security changing, and where does Kazakhstan fit into this shift? Umud Shokri: I think the biggest change is that Central Asian countries are looking beyond the routes they have relied on for decades. Oil and gas still move mainly through Russia and China, but governments are also exploring connections across the Caspian and south through Iran. They want more choices and greater control over how their resources reach markets. Kazakhstan is central to this shift. It is the region's largest oil producer, and its location gives it links to Russia, China, the Caspian and the South Caucasus. However, its heavy dependence on a single major oil export route remains a significant vulnerability. There is also a growing focus on electricity. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are working on plans for a green-energy corridor across the Caspian. Commissioning of the Central Asia–Azerbaijan link is planned to begin in 2032, while the separate Caspian–Black Sea–Europe corridor is expected to reach full capacity by 2040. These are long-term goals; neither corridor is operating yet. Kazakhstan is therefore both a major energy supplier and a country seeking to broaden its options. Its relationships with Russia, China, Europe, Türkiye and its neighbors all matter. But diplomacy alone is not enough. The region needs investment in pipelines, ports, power lines and domestic grids to turn diversification plans into reliable alternatives. TCA: Kazakhstan relies heavily on the CPC pipeline. Can the route through Azerbaijan and Türkiye become a substantial alternative? Umud Shokri: The CPC is still Kazakhstan's main oil export route. It carried 64.8 million metric tons of Kazakh oil in 2025, or about four-fifths of the country's exports. That volume cannot be shifted elsewhere quickly. But repeated disruptions have shown why Kazakhstan needs alternatives. The route through Azerbaijan and Türkiye is already operating. Kazakh oil...
