Economic Growth - The Times Of Central Asia

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Rare Earth Metals

Tajikistan Uncovers Major Rare Earth Deposits in Rasht Valley

Newly discovered deposits of the rare earth metals tantalum and niobium in Tajikistan could reshape the country's mining sector and economic future, according to the Tajik Geological Survey. Strategic Discoveries in the Rasht Valley Ilkhom Oymukhammadzoda, head of the Geological Administration, announced the discovery of substantial niobium and tantalum concentrations in the Rasht Valley, based on the analysis of 125 samples collected from the Nazaraylok and Yosuman areas. Tantalum is critical to electronics manufacturing, while niobium is used in high-strength alloys for the aerospace and construction industries both metals are of growing strategic importance. Oymukhammadzoda also confirmed the identification of 15 additional sites rich in rare metals such as lithium, niobium, and tantalum across remote eastern regions including Karasu, Agbasoy, Pyron, and Rohshif. Gold prospects have also emerged. At the Novy Sarimardi site, a gold-bearing ore body with a concentration of 0.96 grams per tonne has been located, potentially attracting investor interest. Geophysical surveys have identified three anomalies in the Laylakul and Sangibek areas, suggesting further opportunities for mineral exploration and development. Key Geological Zones Tajikistan’s rare earth resources are primarily concentrated in two strategic zones: the Central Region and the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO). In the Central Region, exploration is focused on the Zeravshan and Karategin ridges. Pegmatite fields in Karasu, Akbasai, and Payron are currently under assessment for reserves of niobium, tantalum, lithium, and tin. In GBAO, exploration is underway in the Shughnan, Rushan, Ishkoshim, and Vakhsh ridges. Sites such as Kolkhozabad, Taglikhas, and Vez-Dara have shown traces of rubidium and other rare elements essential to high-tech industries. Economic Potential and National Strategy Geological survey work is state-funded and focused on assessing reserves of strategic resources. One of the most promising sites is Nazaraylok, where preliminary projections suggest reserves of niobium and tantalum may reach several hundred thousand tons. Beyond these metals, Tajikistan’s subsoil contains beryllium, cesium, lithium, tin, and light lanthanides, all in increasing demand on global markets. Rare earth resources are emerging as a cornerstone of future economic development. With its expanding inventory of strategic metals, Tajikistan could become a key player in the global rare earth supply chain.

Economic Growth

EDB Analysts Predict Record Economic Growth for Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s economy is projected to grow at its fastest pace in two decades, reaching 8.4% in 2025. This forecast comes from the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) latest macroeconomic report, presented to member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and other participating countries. Migrant Remittances and Economic Drivers EDB analysts attribute this strong growth to several key factors: sustained domestic consumption, a favorable external economic environment, and high global prices for gold, one of Tajikistan’s primary exports. Remittances from Tajik migrant workers remain a critical source of financial inflows, accounting for roughly 45% of the country’s GDP. This long-standing trend has consistently supported domestic consumption and overall economic stability. The EDB projects continued strong growth in the medium term, with GDP expected to expand by 8% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027. While the pace is forecast to slow slightly, Tajikistan’s growth will remain high relative to regional and global averages. Despite these positive indicators, EDB economists caution that several risks could undermine the forecast. These include potential fluctuations in commodity prices, geopolitical instability, international trade disputes, and a possible decline in migrant remittances, especially from oil-exporting countries where many Tajik workers are employed. Regional and Global Outlook For the broader Eurasian Economic Union which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, the EDB projects GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025. This marks a slowdown from 4.5% growth in 2024, driven largely by weakening business activity in the United States and European Union. Globally, economic growth is expected to decelerate to 3% in 2025, down from 3.3% the previous year. The United States is forecast to slow to 1.4%, while the eurozone is projected to grow by just 0.6%. In contrast, China is expected to maintain a 5% growth rate, bolstered by policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption and expanding industrial clusters. Despite global headwinds, the Eurasian Economic Union, established in 2015, continues to exhibit economic resilience. By the end of 2024, the combined GDP of member states reached $2.6 trillion. Intra-union trade is nearing the $100 billion mark, and the bloc accounts for 4.2% of global economic output.

Economic Growth

World Bank Urges Uzbekistan to Deepen Reforms to Sustain Growth and Empower Private Sector

Uzbekistan has made significant progress on economic reforms since 2017, but more decisive action is needed to sustain high growth rates and foster a dynamic private sector, according to the World Bank’s latest Country Economic Memorandum. The report, which analyzes the country's economic trajectory from 2010 to 2022, outlines key policy recommendations for the coming years. Between 2010 and 2022, Uzbekistan’s per capita GDP grew at an average annual rate of 4.2%, outpacing the regional averages for Europe and Central Asia and for lower-middle-income countries. However, the World Bank notes that this growth has been driven largely by capital accumulation rather than productivity gains, while the private sector remains underdeveloped. “To become an upper-middle-income country by 2030, Uzbekistan needs to boost its growth closer to double digits,” the report states. Achieving this requires sharp improvements in total factor productivity, which hinges on reducing regulatory and market distortions, deepening trade integration, and investing in human capital. State Role and Infrastructure Gaps State-owned enterprises (SOEs) still dominate many sectors of the economy. As of 2020, over 2,000 SOEs accounted for revenues equivalent to 32% of GDP. Many of these operate in areas where private firms could be more efficient. The report recommends accelerating privatization, particularly in competitive sectors, and enhancing transparency in the process. Infrastructure remains a major bottleneck to sustainable growth. While Uzbekistan has taken steps to attract private investment, especially in the energy sector, greater efforts are needed. The World Bank urges targeted investment in electricity and transport infrastructure, prioritizing economically strategic regions such as Tashkent and Qarshi, and improving connectivity between hubs like Samarkand, Navoi, and Khorezm. Trade and Regulation Since 2017, Uzbekistan’s trade-to-GDP ratio has more than doubled, reaching 71.6% in 2022. Still, only 6% of domestic firms are engaged in exporting. To capitalize on its growing trade openness, the report calls for further tariff reductions, streamlined customs processes, and modernized logistics and transport networks. To foster a more competitive business environment, the World Bank recommends comprehensive regulatory reforms. This includes establishing independent regulators in sectors such as energy, rail transport, and telecommunications, and enhancing the mandate of the Competition Promotion and Consumer Protection Committee. If implemented, these reforms could help Uzbekistan accelerate its economic transformation, create more jobs, and strengthen its position in the global economy.

Economy

EDB Forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth to Accelerate to 5.5% in 2025

Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, up from an estimated 4.8% in 2024, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). The forecast suggests this growth rate will be sustained through 2026 and 2027. “We expect Kazakhstan's economic growth to accelerate to 5.5% in 2025 after 4.8% in 2024, with these rates remaining unchanged in 2026-2027,” said Aigul Berdigulova, Senior Analyst at the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, during the presentation of the bank’s macroeconomic forecast. She emphasized that government initiatives to boost investment, particularly through the national holding company Baiterek, will be pivotal. Funding volumes for the economy are expected to reach KZT 8 trillion (approximately $15.2 billion), equivalent to about 6% of GDP. “This measure will help unlock investment potential in manufacturing, transport, and construction,” Berdigulova said. According to the EDB, these investment-backed policies are expected to counterbalance external shocks. Additional growth drivers include expansion at the Tengiz oil field, projected to contribute 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025, and ongoing fiscal stimulus, regional development efforts, and infrastructure projects. Kazakhstan ranks fourth among the EDB’s member states in terms of projected GDP growth for 2025, following Kyrgyzstan (10.3%), Tajikistan (8.4%), and Uzbekistan (6.5%). It is on par with Armenia (5.5%) and ahead of Belarus (3%) and Russia (2%). Inflation Set to Rise in 2025 Despite the optimistic growth forecast, inflationary pressures are expected to intensify. The EDB projects Kazakhstan’s inflation rate will reach 11.9% in 2025, its highest among the bank’s member countries. “Inflation in Kazakhstan is rising this year due to the weakening of the tenge observed at the end of 2024,” Berdigulova explained. She also pointed to continued increases in utility tariffs and inflation expectations amid discussions of tax and budget reforms, including a planned VAT hike. Inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter of 2026 before declining to around 8.5% by 2027. For comparison, Armenia is forecast to have the lowest inflation among EDB members at just 3.1%. According to preliminary data from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy, the country’s GDP grew by 6% year-on-year in the January-May 2025 period. However, not all institutions are as optimistic. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently revised its 2025 forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP downward, from 5.2% to 4.9%.

Child Poverty

World Bank: Poverty Falls in Kazakhstan, but Inequality and Child Poverty Persist

The World Bank has released a comprehensive report on poverty in Kazakhstan, analyzing trends from 2006 to 2021. Presented to journalists in Almaty, the report paints a detailed picture of the country's evolving socio-economic landscape. Defining Poverty Poverty is broadly defined as the inability to meet basic human needs, including food, clothing, clean water, sanitation, education, and healthcare. One standard measure is the subsistence minimum set by the government. As of 2021, the international poverty line was $3 per person per day in low-income countries. For upper-middle-income economies like Kazakhstan, the threshold was set at $8.30 per day. [caption id="attachment_33210" align="alignnone" width="300"] @pip.worldbank.org[/caption] From Poverty to the Middle Class Over 15 years, Kazakhstan witnessed substantial economic growth. Per capita consumption doubled, and GDP per capita rose from 548,900 to 791,300 tenge (KZT). An estimated six million people were lifted out of poverty, and the country advanced into the category of upper-middle-income economies. The World Bank identifies three distinct phases of development: 2006-2013 - Growth: Economic expansion and proactive social policies reduced poverty from 49.5% to 11.1% 2014-2016 - Crisis: A sharp decline in oil prices and the devaluation of the tenge saw poverty spike to 20.2% 2016-2021 - Stabilization: Economic recovery brought the poverty rate down to 8.5% [caption id="attachment_33211" align="alignnone" width="300"] @worldbank.org[/caption] A Rising Middle Class Between 2006 and 2021, the share of Kazakhstan’s population considered middle class increased from 26 percent to 67 percent. The World Bank defines the middle class as individuals who are neither poor nor economically vulnerable. This growth was driven by rising incomes, pensions, and social assistance programs. However, progress began to slow after 2013 due to ongoing structural challenges, low productivity, dependence on extractive industries, and a weak private sector. Child Poverty: An Alarming Trend National gains have not eliminated regional disparities. In the Turkistan region, poverty rose from 14.4 percent in 2006 to 24 percent in 2021. [caption id="attachment_33212" align="alignnone" width="300"] @worldbank.org[/caption] Demographic shifts in poverty are also concerning. The poor are increasingly younger, less educated, and from large families. Child poverty is especially acute: 13% of children live below the poverty line, comprising 40% of the country's poor. In other words, every eighth child in Kazakhstan is living in poverty. [caption id="attachment_33213" align="alignnone" width="300"] @worldbank.org[/caption] Consumption and Inequality Rising consumption, measured via purchasing power parity (PPP), has been the main driver of poverty reduction. Indicators like the Big Mac Index offer accessible insights into shifts in purchasing power. Growth in incomes, pensions, and the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector also contributed, while emergency government support during the COVID-19 pandemic helped avert a sharp decline in living standards. Nevertheless, inequality is on the rise. Since 2016, the Gini Index has shown a growing gap. The wealthiest 10% of Kazakhstanis now spend three times more than the poorest 10%. While this inequality remains moderate by global standards, the upward trend is cause for concern. [caption id="attachment_33214" align="alignnone" width="300"] @worldbank.org[/caption] Looking Ahead World Bank analysts acknowledge Kazakhstan’s progress in reducing poverty. However, they...

Credit rating

Moody’s Upgrades Outlook on Uzbekistan’s Credit Rating to Positive

Moody’s Ratings has revised Uzbekistan’s credit outlook from stable to positive, while affirming its long-term issuer rating at Ba3, a level that denotes speculative or non-investment grade status. The improved outlook reflects increased confidence in the country’s ongoing structural reforms and governance improvements. According to Moody’s, Uzbekistan’s efforts to strengthen public sector governance and liberalize key sectors such as energy could enhance policy effectiveness and lay the foundation for sustainable economic growth. Recent steps include restructuring the supervisory boards of all state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and banks, with an increased presence of independent members. The government is also advancing legislation on conflict of interest, asset declaration, and whistleblower protections, measures that signal a broader commitment to transparency. The energy sector reforms highlight the government's readiness to undertake challenging but necessary changes. Tariffs have risen sharply as part of a phased plan to achieve full cost recovery by 2027-2028. While inflationary pressures persist, the government has sought to mitigate their impact through targeted increases in public sector wages and pensions and by scaling back subsidies. Privatization remains central to Uzbekistan’s reform strategy. The government plans to reduce the state’s share in the banking sector from 65% to 46%, following the successful privatization of Ipoteka Bank. The recently established National Investment Fund, managed by Franklin Templeton, will oversee holdings in 18 major enterprises. Initial public offerings are planned for several large firms, including Navoi, Uzbekistan’s largest taxpayer. Moody’s forecasts GDP growth of 5.8% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026, supported by increased investment in energy and transport infrastructure under the Uzbekistan 2030 Strategy and rising levels of foreign direct investment. The fiscal deficit declined to 3.3% of GDP in 2024 and is projected to remain below 3% in the coming years. Although Uzbekistan’s public debt remains moderate, liabilities linked to SOE borrowing and public-private partnership (PPP) projects are increasing. To manage these risks, the government has imposed caps on new PPPs and now requires official approval for external borrowing by state-owned entities. Moody’s also pointed to persistent institutional weaknesses, low per capita income, and governance concerns, as well as regional geopolitical risks. However, the agency noted that if current reform momentum continues and economic indicators improve further, an upgrade to the country’s credit rating is possible. Uzbekistan’s credit profile is bolstered by its diversified economy, strong growth outlook, and prudent fiscal management. With continued reforms and growing investor confidence, the country appears increasingly well-positioned for long-term economic stability.