Economic Reforms - The Times Of Central Asia

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Tashkent International Investment Forum

Data, Minerals, and the New Tashkent: Uzbekistan Pitches Its Next Growth Phase at Investment Forum

Uzbekistan used the opening of this year’s Tashkent International Investment Forum to make a broader pitch than investment alone: the country is presenting itself as a platform for data-driven governance, value-added mineral processing, and large-scale urban development. The fifth Tashkent International Investment Forum is being held in the Uzbek capital from June 16-18, bringing together government officials, international financial institutions, business leaders, and investors as Uzbekistan seeks to reinforce its position as one of Central Asia’s leading investment destinations. Held under the theme “Investment Resilience: New Frontiers, New Partnerships,” TIIF 2026 comes as Uzbekistan continues to promote reforms aimed at attracting capital, expanding industrial production, developing digital infrastructure, and moving higher up global value chains. Mirziyoyev Sets Out Investment Priorities Addressing the forum on June 17, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev presented Uzbekistan’s recent economic performance as evidence of growing investor confidence. He said the country had attracted more than $150 billion in foreign investment in recent years, including $123 billion over the past five years. According to the president, nearly 4,000 foreign guests from more than 100 countries are attending this year’s forum, reflecting its expanding international profile. The event brought together heads of state, prime ministers, representatives of international financial institutions, and business executives from around the world. Mirziyoyev said Uzbekistan remained committed to creating a favorable investment environment through reforms designed to protect investors’ rights and broaden economic opportunities. He said GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025, foreign investment reached $43 billion, international reserves exceeded $70 billion, and Uzbekistan rose 14 places in the Index of Economic Freedom, joining the group of economies classified as “moderately free.” He also emphasized the pace of economic growth. Four years ago, he said, Uzbekistan set a target of reaching a $100 billion economy by the end of 2026; now, he said, GDP is expected to exceed $180 billion this year. Mirziyoyev also announced plans to establish the Tashkent International Financial Center, a tax- and customs-free zone operating under a special legal regime based on English common law principles. He said the center would offer zero rates on profit tax, value-added tax, property tax, and customs duties, while guaranteeing free capital movement and payments in any currency. Delta Y: A Data Infrastructure Startup Looks to Uzbekistan One of the companies drawing attention at the forum was Delta Y, a Lisbon-based data infrastructure startup seeking to help governments and cities turn fragmented information into practical decision-making tools. Founded in 2025, Delta Y describes itself as a “data infrastructure layer” for governments, institutions, and advisory firms. Its goal is to use data engineering and artificial intelligence to turn disconnected datasets into usable analysis. Co-founder Afonso Carvas said the idea emerged from his experience working with data teams in technology companies and from a broader question: whether governments and cities could gain access to the same quality of data infrastructure used by leading global companies. That question eventually led the company to Uzbekistan. Why Uzbekistan? Carvas said Delta Y first began looking at Uzbekistan after a...

Tashkent International Investment Forum

Mirziyoyev Says Uzbekistan’s Doors Will “Always Remain Open” as Fifth Tashkent Investment Forum Begins

TASHKENT, June 17 — President Shavkat Mirziyoyev opened the Fifth Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF) on Wednesday with a message aimed squarely at the nearly 4,000 mostly foreign delegates packed into the hall: Uzbekistan's doors are open, and the country intends to keep them that way. Speaking under this year's theme, "Investment Resilience: New Frontiers, New Partnerships," Mirziyoyev framed the forum as more than a transactional venue for capital, but as a platform to initiate and deepen long-term mutually beneficial partnerships. He described what he called the "Tashkent investment spirit" — a phrase he used to capture the event's evolution into what he called a symbol of shared success between Uzbekistan and the partners willing to back it. The sentiment ran through his closing remarks, where he told the room that “the most important partner in turning ambitious plans into reality is an investor who arrives with good intentions. Therefore, the doors of New Uzbekistan will always remain open to foreign investors who come to our country with trust and ideas.” The guest list underscored the forum's growing diplomatic prowess. Mirziyoyev personally thanked Albanian President Bajram Begaj, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Belarusian Prime Minister Aleksandr Turchin, Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov, Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, Kyrgyz Cabinet Chairman Adylbek Kasymaliev, and Tajik Prime Minister Kokhir Rasulzoda, alongside senior representatives from the EBRD, the New Development Bank, the World Bank, the IFC, the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the European Investment Bank. Mirziyoyev cited a series of economic indicators to support the message. Uzbekistan has secured more than $150 billion in foreign investment since launching reforms, with $123 billion arriving in the last five years. In 2025, GDP expanded by 7.7%, foreign investment climbed to $43 billion, and reserves rose above $70 billion. According to Mirziyoyev, the economy is on track to exceed $180 billion this year, comfortably outpacing the $100 billion goal announced at the first forum four years ago — a sign, he said, of sustained momentum, underscored by a 14-position improvement in the Index of Economic Freedom. The pledges come as Uzbekistan seeks to deepen the economic opening launched under Mirziyoyev, with officials using the forum to market legal guarantees, capital-market reforms and new infrastructure projects to foreign investors. Mirziyoyev structured the rest of his address around six priorities. The first centers on legal guarantees for investors, anchored by the new Tashkent International Financial Center — a zero-tax-rate zone for corporate income, VAT, property, and customs duties, governed by English common law and backed by an independent commercial court staffed with foreign judges. The second targets capital markets, building on $16 billion in international bond placements and the recent National Investment Fund listing, which he called the London Stock Exchange's largest IPO in five years, with sovereign “sukuk issuance” planned next. The third priority is industrial value addition. Here, Mirziyoyev pointed to Uzbekistan's $3 trillion in estimated subsoil wealth and announced that foreign investment will be extensively channeled into the "Metals of...

GDP

Why Kazakhstan Is Moving Ahead in GDP Per Capita

The International Monetary Fund has projected Kazakhstan to reach roughly $23,170 in nominal GDP per capita by 2031. On the same current-dollar measure, it is projected to pass China around 2026 and Russia by 2031. The comparison is a milestone, but it requires perspective. It is neither a purchasing-power verdict nor a comprehensive measure of household welfare. It nevertheless marks Kazakhstan’s entry into a higher income band. The question is how a state that began independence amid post-Soviet economic disruption reached this stage. How Kazakhstan Reached This Point Kazakhstan’s present position rests on a three-decade progression of state capacity, resource development, and institutional learning. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the country did not inherit a working growth model. It inherited broken production chains, institutional rupture, and inflation. It therefore faced the task of building a market economy out of an administrative-command system. In current U.S. dollars, GDP per capita stood near $1,400 in 1991, and exceeded $14,000 by 2024; in constant-dollar terms, the gain was smaller but still substantial. Hydrocarbons supplied the base, but political institutions and leadership acumen determined how much of that base could survive volatility. The path since 1991 has not been smooth. The 1990s brought collapse and stabilization. The 2000s brought hydrocarbon acceleration, foreign direct investment, and a rise in nominal GDP per capita climbing from a little more than $1,000 in 2000 to more than $8,000 in 2008. The global financial crisis interrupted the rise without destroying the model. The early 2010s brought recovery. The 2014–2016 oil-price and exchange-rate shock then tested the foundations already built, as the current-dollar figure fell sharply while real output per person proved more stable. COVID imposed another interruption. The post-2020 rebound belongs to that sequence. The Tokayev agenda belongs to this third stage of institutional learning. It did not create the GDP per capita trajectory over three decades, but today the issue has shifted from accumulation to stewardship. The inherited growth model had to be made more competitive, more rules-based, more socially visible, and more sustainable. Since 2022, the government has treated de-monopolization, asset recovery, social investment, and private-sector development as connected elements of the same governing effort. The IMF’s latest assessment shows the pressure inside that effort: growth remains strong, supported by oil output and non-oil activity, while fiscal, inflationary, and quasi-state-sector pressures still require correction. The Reform Program and Its Results Decree No. 542, signed in May 2024, set out measures to liberalize the economy, limit expansion of the quasi-state sector, revise privatization criteria, strengthen competition, and improve conditions for entrepreneurship. Its operative terms are competition, privatization, reduced state participation, and lower business costs. The decree temporarily halts the creation of new quasi-state entities and provides for an audit of state and quasi-state assets, partly to identify candidates for privatization. It also incorporates reforms affecting procurement and business regulation. The decree seeks to bend Kazakhstan’s accumulated macroeconomic trajectory toward commercial governance. The challenge is not to remove state capacity but to prevent it from crowding out private...

ADB’s 59th Annual Meeting

Uzbekistan Showcases $147 Billion Economy at 59th ADB Meeting in Samarkand

The 59th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Development Bank officially opened on May 4 in Samarkand, bringing together more than 4,000 participants from over 100 countries. Held under the theme “Crossroads of Progress: Advancing the Region’s Connected Future,” the forum has given Uzbekistan a high-profile platform to promote its reforms, regional connectivity plans, and ambitions in green energy and artificial intelligence. The agenda covers digital and green transformation, climate resilience, supply chain development, and food security. The meeting also gives Central Asia a chance to present itself as a more active player in regional infrastructure, energy, and trade planning. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev addressed the forum, highlighting Uzbekistan’s recent economic reforms and development trajectory. He said the country has attracted $150 billion in foreign investment in recent years, while exports of goods and services have tripled and the economy has expanded from $50 billion to $147 billion. “Most importantly, our reforms have focused primarily on improving the daily lives of every single family and individual,” Mirziyoyev said, noting that poverty levels have declined significantly, from nearly 35% to 5.8%. He added that Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 8.7% in the first quarter despite global economic challenges. The president also emphasized the role of international financial institutions, noting that Uzbekistan’s joint project portfolio with the ADB has reached nearly $16 billion. He expressed appreciation for cooperation with organizations, including the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Particular attention was given to digital transformation and artificial intelligence. Uzbekistan has launched initiatives, including the creation of an AI Hub, the expansion of data centers, and training programs aimed at developing technological expertise. “The use of open AI models is also required in areas that are most essential to the population’s primary needs,” Mirziyoyev said. Green energy and transport connectivity were also central topics. Uzbekistan has already commissioned 5,600 megawatts of renewable energy capacity and aims to increase the share of renewables to 54% by 2030. The president also highlighted major infrastructure projects, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which is expected to reduce cargo delivery times and strengthen regional transit links. In addition, proposals were put forward to develop a regional “Digital Customs and Logistics Alliance,” expand cooperation in critical minerals, and launch initiatives such as the “Green Belt of Central Asia” and a “Central Asia Tourist Ring.”

New Uzbekistan

Opinion: The Reform Paradox for Uzbekistan: Global Capital, Political Control

In mid-May, Uzbekistan is preparing to take a major step onto the global financial stage – one that reflects its broader, decade-long push to open its economy to international investors. The country's National Investment Fund (UzNIF), a $2.4 billion vehicle holding minority stakes in 13 strategic state-owned enterprises, is preparing to list 30% of its capital on the London and Tashkent stock exchanges — the first time such a state-backed investment vehicle is being listed on international equity markets. For President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the move signals that Uzbekistan wants to be seen as an investable, reforming, and globally connected state. But the planned listing also captures the central paradox of Uzbekistan's current trajectory: the country is opening economically while remaining politically closed. Foreign investors are being invited in. State assets are being partially exposed to market discipline. Capital markets are being developed. Yet the political system remains tightly managed, with limited opposition, weak institutional pluralism, and few independent channels for releasing social pressure. That is why Uzbekistan's stability should not be read only as a strength. It should also be read as a system test: can controlled modernization keep producing legitimacy without creating political mechanisms for absorbing the expectations it generates? Mirziyoyev as a Controlled Modernizer Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s political style is not that of a frontline strongman constantly mobilizing society against enemies. His approach is administrative, developmental, and transactional: reform from above, personnel control, investment attraction, infrastructure, market opening, and the redistribution of economic flows. In this sense, Mirziyoyev is best understood not as a liberal reformer in the Western sense, but as a controlled modernizer. The reform agenda is real. Uzbekistan has moved to attract foreign capital, open selected state assets, improve its business image, and position itself as a more predictable investment destination. The UzNIF listing fits this broader effort: it is designed to deepen capital markets, signal openness to international investors, and show that the state is willing to place parts of its economic architecture under market scrutiny. But the political architecture remains tightly managed. Freedom House continues to rate Uzbekistan as "Not Free" — 12 points out of 100 in its 2026 report — citing the concentration of power in the executive branch, the absence of a genuine parliamentary opposition, and severe restrictions on independent journalists and human rights defenders. This is the central tension: Uzbekistan is reforming economically, but not politically. [caption id="attachment_48249" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Tashkent has opened up to investment over the past decade. Image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] Growth as Legitimacy For now, the model works because growth provides legitimacy. The World Bank expects Uzbekistan's economy to grow by around 6.4% in 2026, following 7.7% growth in 2025 – supported by domestic demand, private consumption, and continued investment. Public debt remains comparatively moderate at around 28% of GDP, and the country benefits from the perception that it is one of the more dynamic economies in the region. This gives the ruling system room to maneuver. The reform narrative allows the leadership to present itself as forward-looking without opening the...

Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...