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Economy

Most Kazakhstani Citizens Fear Decline in Living Standards Due to Tax Reform

A majority of Kazakhstanis expect a planned increase in value-added tax (VAT) to negatively impact their standard of living, triggering higher prices, rising unemployment, and increased pressure on businesses, according to a survey conducted by the DEMOSCOPE public opinion monitoring agency. The results show that 61.4% of respondents believe the VAT hike from 12% to 16% beginning January 1, 2026, will reduce their quality of life. Of those, 32.4% anticipate a significant decline, while 29% expect a slight deterioration. Meanwhile, 20.6% believe the change will have no impact, and just 9% believe it will improve their living standards. Government officials have framed the VAT increase as necessary to boost budget revenues, stabilize the economy, and finance social spending. However, respondents overwhelmingly believe the reform will primarily benefit the state (63.8%) and wealthy citizens (27.9%). In contrast, only 10.2% think businesses will benefit, while 3.3% expect gains for the middle class and just 2% for low-income citizens. Additionally, 19.2% said no one would benefit, and 2.4% believe everyone will benefit. Respondents also identified several expected negative outcomes. A majority, 65.5%, expect a rise in prices for goods and services. Another 27.3% predict a reduction in the number of small and medium-sized enterprises, 26.5% foresee rising unemployment, and 19.6% anticipate growth in the shadow economy and tax evasion. Among entrepreneurs, 70.5% view the reform negatively. The VAT hike is seen as particularly detrimental to small and medium-sized businesses: 63.6% believe it will harm the sector, 14.8% foresee no impact, and only 10.3% predict a positive outcome. Overall, 52.8% of respondents expressed a negative view of the reform, while 33.4% were neutral and just 7.8% were positive. Nevertheless, some respondents did see potential benefits: 18.2% believe the reform will increase tax revenues, and 9.4% think it will improve living standards. A further 12.6% said they expect no significant changes. The findings suggest that many Kazakhstani citizens view the tax reform as a policy that favors the government and affluent elites, while placing disproportionate pressure on businesses and vulnerable population groups. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, in early October, Finance Minister Mady Takiev stated that authorities had identified suspected underreporting of taxable income by more than 260,000 businesses across the country.

Economy

IMF Links High Inflation in Kazakhstan to Overheating Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has attributed rising inflation in Kazakhstan to signs of an overheated economy. In a mission conducted in early November, the IMF concluded that the country's GDP growth is exceeding its real potential, thereby fueling inflationary pressure. While economic activity remains robust, prices continue to climb. According to the IMF’s forecast, Kazakhstan’s real GDP is expected to grow by just over 6% in 2025, up from 5% in 2024. The main growth drivers are increased oil production and elevated domestic demand. The IMF estimates that inflation could reach nearly 13% by the end of the year. Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy remains expansionary. Transfers from the National Fund are a key contributor: in 2024, more than $12.1 billion was withdrawn from the fund, including $10.8 billion in direct transfers to the republican budget and $1.3 billion for the purchase of shares and bonds of Kazakhstani issuers. In 2025, the government plans to cut withdrawals from the National Fund nearly in half to $5.2 billion. However, the IMF warns that the non-oil budget deficit could still exceed 8% of GDP. Elevated demand, particularly from state-owned enterprises, has also contributed to a widening current account deficit, projected at 4% of GDP. Despite a slowdown in consumer lending and stabilization in oil production, domestic demand is expected to remain high in 2026. The IMF forecasts GDP growth at 4.5%. Over the medium term, the new Tax Code is expected to help bring inflation down to the 5% target, while GDP growth moderates to a sustainable level of around 3.5%. According to the National Statistics Bureau, year-on-year inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 12.9% in September 2025, easing slightly to 12.6% in October. Monthly inflation was reported at 0.5%. The IMF highlighted several risks that could exacerbate inflationary pressures. These include falling oil prices, slower economic growth among key trading partners, potential disruptions to crude exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), delays in infrastructure projects, and sluggish fiscal consolidation. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan continues to maintain one of the lowest levels of public debt in the world. At 24.8% of GDP, the country ranks 25th globally in terms of debt burden.

Economy

Kyrgyz Authorities Tighten Control Over Meat Prices

Temporary state regulation of meat prices has been in effect in Kyrgyzstan for several months. Inspectors fine sellers who exceed the permissible price caps. The first violation typically results in a warning. The Ministry of Economy and Commerce recently extended the regulation. The price controls were due to expire last week, but officials argue that without oversight, rising meat prices could trigger an increase in the cost of other goods and the broader consumer basket. In Bishkek, the government has set maximum retail prices at $7.50 per kilogram for lamb and $7.70 for beef. Price caps in the regions are slightly lower. According to sellers, rising prices are driven not by profit motives but by external pressures, prolonged drought, higher fuel prices, increased transportation costs, and a surge in meat exports, especially to Uzbekistan. “Meat is indeed becoming more expensive, mainly because it is being exported abroad. We need to provide for ourselves first. When we sell at state-set prices, it becomes unprofitable, we operate at a loss. We still have to pay rent, electricity, patent fees, security, and water,” said Mirlan Tursunaliyev, a meat seller in Bishkek, speaking to The Times of Central Asia. He added that vendors hope the price caps will be revised to better reflect their operational costs. Officials from the Antimonopoly Regulation Service note that some sellers are unwilling to comply with legal requirements such as submitting documents, updating price tags, or paying fines. In some cases, enforcement raids are carried out jointly with police. According to the agency, meat prices in Kyrgyzstan typically rise between May and September. Authorities expect demand to decline toward the end of the year, as is customary in winter. A seasonal drop in demand could also bring down production costs.

Economy

Kazakh Government to Reconsider Minimum Wage Increase No Earlier Than 2027

The Kazakh Cabinet of Ministers does not plan to revisit the issue of raising the minimum wage before 2027-2028, according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin. Earlier this year, in June, Minister of Labor and Social Protection Svetlana Zhakupova had announced plans to raise the minimum wage from January 1, 2026. At the time, the minimum wage stood at approximately $163, and Finance Minister Madi Takiev indicated that an increase to just over $172 was under consideration. However, in August, Zhumangarin announced that the minimum wage would remain frozen at its current level. Speaking at a government meeting this week, Zhumangarin confirmed that a review of the minimum wage is not scheduled in the near term. “In 2027-2028, the issue of raising the minimum wage will be considered,” he said, presenting a draft program of joint actions by the government, the National Bank, and the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market (ARDFM) aimed at macroeconomic stabilization and improving the population’s well-being from 2026 to 2028. Under the program, more than 100 investment projects in the manufacturing and agro-industrial sectors are to be launched annually to support employment. “The program’s priority is to increase real incomes by promoting high-quality, sustainable economic growth and reducing inflation. To this end, a set of tools has been developed across key areas of economic policy,” Zhumangarin stated. To curb inflation, the government plans to saturate the domestic market with local goods, strengthen pricing oversight, and tackle monopolistic practices. Zhumangarin also outlined plans to enhance transparency on e-commerce platforms. This includes requiring disclosure of commission fees included in the cost of goods, as well as optimizing commission structures for trading platforms and intermediaries. To protect consumers, dual pricing will be introduced, listing prices both with and without installment plans. A separate priority will focus on boosting long-term economic productivity through improvements in labor efficiency, effective employment, and capital modernization. These efforts aim to reduce the persistent gap between GDP growth and wage growth. Between 2026 and 2028, the government expects real income to grow by at least 2-3% annually. “At the end of the first nine months, nominal wage growth stood at 10%, but real growth was negative due to inflation,” Zhumangarin said at a briefing. “Our task is to ensure that inflation does not erode incomes. If we aim for real income growth of 2-3%, this means nominal growth must exceed inflation by that margin in the coming years.” As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, inflation has significantly eroded household income this year, driven by Kazakhstan’s reliance on imports, rising utility rates, and an increased tax burden.

Economy

Uzbekistan Revises 2024 GDP to $121.4 Billion

Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024 has been revised upward to $121.4 billion, according to Behzod Hamroyev, Chair of the National Statistics Committee. The new figure was announced on November 17 during an international conference in Tashkent, as reported by the Statistika channel. Hamroyev explained that the revision reflects newly identified value added across key sectors of the economy. According to the final calculations, Uzbekistan’s nominal GDP for 2024 rose from 1,454.6 trillion soums to 1,535.4 trillion soums, an increase of 80.9 trillion soums, or 5.6%. In dollar terms, this marks an upward revision from the previously reported $115.0 billion to $121.4 billion. Following the recalculation, GDP per capita in 2024 reached 41.3 million soums. Hamroyev highlighted that full coverage of state budget execution led to the identification of 36.4 trillion soums in additional newly created value. Sector-specific revisions also contributed significantly: added value in industry rose by 12.7 trillion soums, agriculture by 5.6 trillion soums, construction by 10.3 trillion soums, and services by 16.3 trillion soums. Earlier this year, presidential spokesperson Sherzod Asadov reported that Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 6.5% in 2024, reaching $115 billion before the revision. He also noted that foreign investment increased by 1.6 times to $34.9 billion, with 242 large and medium-sized projects worth $10 billion launched. National exports reached a record $27 billion.

public debt

Kazakhstan Among Countries with Lowest Debt Burden

Kazakhstan continues to maintain a low level of public debt, amounting to 24.8% of the country’s GDP, ranking it 25th globally. This figure is well below the global average and reflects a relatively low debt burden, according to an analysis by Finprom.kz based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data. By comparison, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have higher public debt levels, at 31.1% and 37.8% of GDP, respectively. Russia (22%) and Tajikistan (23.1%) have slightly lower debt levels. Turkmenistan ranks among the top five countries globally with the lowest public debt, at just 3.9% of GDP. The IMF projects global public debt will rise to 94.7% of GDP in 2025, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year. Japan remains the country with the highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 229.6%. Other countries with high debt levels include Greece (146.7%), Bahrain (142.5%), Italy (136.8%), the Maldives (131.8%), the United States (125%), Senegal (122.9%), France (116.5%), and China (96.3%). Global public debt is expected to reach $111 trillion in 2025. The U.S. and China account for more than half of this total, with $38.3 trillion and $18.7 trillion in public debt, respectively. In absolute terms, Kazakhstan has the highest gross public debt among Central Asian countries, at $74.4 billion. It is followed by Uzbekistan ($42.8 billion), Kyrgyzstan ($7.6 billion), Tajikistan ($3.7 billion), and Turkmenistan ($2.8 billion).