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Economy

American Companies Explore Investment Prospects in Tajikistan

President Emomali Rahmon’s recent visit to the U.S. has sparked renewed interest in the Tajik economy. In New York, a major investment forum showcased large-scale development projects to American companies from hydropower initiatives to green data centers. U.S.-Central Asia Engagement via C5+1 An event titled Presentation on Tajikistan’s Investment Opportunities was held at the Vista LIC Hotel in New York. It was organized by the state-owned Tajinvest enterprise with support from the State Committee for Investment of Tajikistan and the U.S., Tajikistan Business Council. The gathering marked the tenth anniversary of the C5+1 platform, a regional framework for economic cooperation between the U.S. and Central Asia. Timed to coincide with Rahmon’s official visit to Washington, the event was designed to promote Tajikistan’s economic potential to U.S. businesses. Jonibek Ismoil Hikmat, Tajikistan’s permanent representative to the United Nations, opened the event with a speech emphasizing the country’s strategic aspirations. “Today, we are creating a new Silk Road, not of caravans and goods, but of ideas, innovations, and investments,” he stated. Elena Son, Executive Director of the U.S.-Tajikistan Business Council, encouraged American firms to more actively explore the Tajik market. She shared her experience accompanying major U.S. companies to Dushanbe, affirming that Tajikistan is increasingly ready for serious investment. “They sometimes take a long time to get started, but once they do, no one can catch up with them,” she noted, describing the pace of Tajik partners once projects are underway. Investment Mechanisms and Key Projects Tajinvest CEO Dilshod Jurazoda delivered a presentation titled How to Invest in Tajikistan? He outlined legislative guarantees, investor support mechanisms, and the implementation of a One-Stop-Shop model within Tajinvest to streamline business entry. Jurazoda highlighted a portfolio of strategic projects open to foreign investment, including: Dushanbe Mall Dushanbe Arena Hall Expo Center Dushanbe Sugdbarktaminot energy complex Mehrgon agro-cultural complex in Sughd Green data centers leveraging Tajikistan’s hydropower capacity Tourism infrastructure development projects U.S. Businesses Signal Interest The event featured interactive sessions, with participants pitching projects, engaging in open discussions, and networking in an informal setting. Representatives of major U.S. investment and tech firms were in attendance, including Edward Mermelstein (Atlantic Bridge Capital), Val Kogan (Mid-Atlantic-Eurasia Business Council), Burke McCormack (Ardmore Capital), Mack Kerker and David Halpert (Penataran), Leon Nektalov (Leon Diamond), Sam Bousfield (Samson Sky), and Erkin Mustafokulov (United Bros LC). The U.S. delegation stressed that direct dialogue with Tajik officials offered valuable insights into the local market and practical opportunities for cooperation. The New York presentation underscored growing American interest in Tajikistan. With major projects on offer, abundant energy resources, and demonstrated government support, prospects for deepening bilateral economic ties appear increasingly favorable.

Economy

Trade in Central Asia: China Deepens Influence, Europe Expands Presence, Region Seeks New Markets

Central Asia remains a theater of active economic competition, with countries in the region striving to diversify external partnerships and reduce dependence on traditional power centers, Russia and China. While both continue to dominate foreign trade, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are increasingly exploring new directions. The region’s evolving trade dynamics reflect each country's economic characteristics. Kazakhstan is driven by energy and metals exports, Uzbekistan by manufacturing and resource processing, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely heavily on remittances and raw material exports. Amid global shifts and intensified competition for markets, Central Asian states are gradually shaping more multipolar trade strategies, opening up new routes and partnerships. Turkmenistan is excluded from this analysis due to the opacity of its national statistics. Kazakhstan As Central Asia’s largest economy, Kazakhstan relies heavily on natural resource extraction. Its main exports include oil, gas, metals, coal, grain, and agricultural products. Imports consist primarily of machinery, chemicals, vehicles, and consumer goods. Key export partners include Italy (21.6%), China (18.6%), Russia (10.2%), the Netherlands (7.4%), Turkey (4.7%), and Uzbekistan (4.3%). On the import side, China (29%) and Russia (28.8%) dominate, followed by Germany (4.8%), South Korea (3.7%), the United States (3.6%), and Turkey (2.5%). Kazakhstan has maintained a positive trade balance, buoyed by consistent demand for raw materials. In January-July 2025, the country’s foreign trade turnover totaled $78.18 billion, down 2.6% from the same period in 2024. Exports declined by 6.4% to $43.58 billion, while imports rose by 2.6% to $34.6 billion. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan's economy is focused on agriculture, textiles, natural resources, and manufacturing. Major exports include textiles, gold, gas, automobiles, cotton, and fruit. Imports are led by machinery, equipment, chemicals, and petroleum products. In the first half of 2025, foreign trade turnover reached $44.4 billion, up 19.9% year-on-year. Exports rose 34.9% to $20.1 billion, while imports increased 9.9% to $24.29 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $4.18 billion. Uzbekistan trades with 197 countries. Its largest trade partners are China (18.2%), Russia (16.1%), Kazakhstan (5.9%), Turkey (3.6%), and South Korea (2.2%). Export destinations include Russia (12.3%), China (5.5%), Kazakhstan (4.0%), Afghanistan (3.7%), Turkey (3.0%), France (2.6%), the UAE (1.8%), Kyrgyzstan (1.6%), Tajikistan (1.4%), and Pakistan (1.2%). Imports mainly come from China (28.7%), Russia (19.3%), Kazakhstan (7.6%), Turkey (4.1%), South Korea (3.9%), Germany (2.8%), and India (2.6%). Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan, with limited natural resources, is heavily dependent on foreign trade. Its economy is rooted in agriculture, mining, and textiles. Key exports include gold and agricultural products, while imports are dominated by machinery, vehicles, petroleum products, and chemicals. From January to June 2025, foreign trade turnover fell 12.4% year-on-year to $6.99 billion. Exports made up only 15% of total trade, underscoring a continued trade deficit. Main partners remain Kazakhstan, Russia, and China. Tajikistan Tajikistan’s economy is centered on agriculture, hydropower, textiles, and mining. In January-August 2025, foreign trade turnover rose 16.8% year-on-year to $6.73 billion. Exports totaled $1.63 billion, while imports reached $5.1 billion, more than triple the export volume. Main exports are aluminum, textiles, agricultural goods, and minerals; imports...

Labor Migration

Kazakhstan Labor Migration Report Shows Most Citizens Working in Russia

The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection has released updated data on the number of Kazakh citizens working abroad. According to the ministry, 126,000 citizens are currently employed outside the country, which has a population of more than 20 million. The vast majority, over 80%, have found work in neighboring Russia. The figures were shared by First Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Protection Askarbek Yertayev during a briefing with journalists on the sidelines of a Senate meeting. Of the 126,000 citizens working abroad, 102,000 are employed in Russia, 15,000 in South Korea, and approximately 2,000 in the United Kingdom and European Union member states. Yertayev noted that Kazakhstan has yet to finalize bilateral labor agreements with all countries where its citizens are working. “In particular, an agreement with South Korea is still under discussion, we have been negotiating for two years. Talks were paused due to the domestic political situation there,” Yertayev said, referring to the ongoing standoff between South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and the country’s parliament. “Negotiations resumed this fall, and we plan to continue them, as 11,000 of the 15,000 Kazakh citizens in South Korea are working illegally. Measures must be taken, but the Korean side has several conditions, including that Kazakhstan address the issue of its undocumented migrants,” he added. Seoul has requested a “road map” from Kazakhstan to address the problem of illegal labor migration. The document is expected to include mechanisms to prevent undocumented employment. Yertayev expressed confidence that an agreement would be reached before the end of the year. He noted that legal employment in South Korea would allow Kazakh workers to access higher wages and social protections, including healthcare and insurance. “Currently, our citizens in South Korea who are working illegally cannot even send their earnings back home: banks refuse to process the transfers, forcing them to rely on informal channels, which often leads to fraud,” the deputy minister said. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh authorities have also intensified domestic efforts to formalize the labor market by cracking down on employers who pay “gray” wages, off-the-books income that evades taxes and social contributions.

Economy

Investment in Kyrgyzstan’s Economy Rises by 20 Percent

In the first eight months of 2025, several sectors of Kyrgyzstan’s economy experienced substantial growth, particularly in finance, manufacturing, hospitality, and food services. According to the National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, domestic investment surged most notably in the hospitality and food service sectors, which saw a 170 percent increase. The manufacturing sector reported a 110 percent rise, driven largely by state funding for new industrial facilities. Officials emphasized that the primary sources of investment were allocations from the state budget and enterprises’ internal funds. “The implementation of government investment programs is creating conditions for accelerating growth in sectors such as construction, transport, energy, and irrigation,” the Ministry of Finance of Kyrgyzstan stated. Foreign investment was concentrated in financial intermediation and insurance, particularly in Bishkek. Between January and July 2025, nearly $94 million was invested in this sector, an 80 percent increase. Finance and insurance accounted for 40 percent of all foreign investment received by Kyrgyzstan during this period. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) also released its analysis of investment trends in Kyrgyzstan. According to EDB analysts, the country achieved double-digit economic growth this year, largely due to increased investment in industry, transport, and construction. Kyrgyzstan’s GDP expanded by 11.5 percent between January and July 2025. “Investment growth is driven both by domestic resources and external financing, including foreign direct investment. This demonstrates the region’s strong adaptability to the new realities of the global economy,” said EDB Chief Economist Evgeny Vinokurov.

Economy

World Bank Warns Tajikistan on Limits of Migration-Driven Growth

Tajikistan has made notable strides in reducing poverty over the past decade, but sustaining this progress will require a shift away from reliance on labor migration and remittances, according to a new World Bank report. The Poverty and Equity Assessment in Tajikistan notes that the share of people living in poverty fell from 56 percent in 2010 to around 20 percent in 2024. During the same period, the middle class expanded from 8 percent to 33 percent of the population, with 35 percent of households joining its ranks between 2021 and 2023. However, these gains have largely been driven by remittances, which consistently account for more than 30 percent of GDP, rather than domestic job creation. Job Creation Remains Weak Employment generation, however, remains limited. As of 2022, only 40 percent of the working-age population was employed, the lowest rate in the region, while female labor force participation stood at just 21 percent. Inequality has also worsened. The Gini coefficient rose from 32 to 38 between 2021 and 2023, with rural and remote areas most affected due to poor infrastructure and weak market access. Education poses an additional constraint. In 2023, 31 percent of children were not attending school, especially at higher grade levels. Contributing factors include financial hardship, distance to schools, and low parental education. Many university graduates either take low-paid jobs or emigrate. World Bank Recommendations The World Bank urges Tajikistan to transition from a remittance-dependent model to one grounded in domestic employment and economic resilience. Key recommendations include: modernizing agriculture with climate-resilient technologies; promoting labor-intensive private sector growth, particularly in agricultural processing, services, and small enterprises; expanding access to education, vocational training, and digital infrastructure, especially in rural areas; strengthening targeted social support for vulnerable households. “Tajikistan’s progress in poverty reduction is impressive, but sustaining and deepening these gains requires a rebalancing of priorities,” said Wei Winnie Wang, the World Bank’s Acting Country Manager in Tajikistan. She emphasized that improving domestic job creation, reducing spatial inequality, and investing in human capital would help build a more inclusive and sustainable economy. Government Response Tajikistan’s Ministry of Economic Development and Trade acknowledged that the report’s findings align with national development priorities. Deputy Minister Ahliddin Nuriddinzoda highlighted the role of the Poverty and Middle Class Expansion Council, established with World Bank support, as a platform for monitoring poverty and shaping related policy. According to the ministry, the World Bank’s current portfolio in Tajikistan includes 26 projects worth $1.9 billion, focused on infrastructure, human capital, and institutional reforms. The International Finance Corporation has also invested more than $70 million in the private sector.

poverty reduction

Uzbekistan Aims to Cut Poverty Rate to 6% by End of 2025

Uzbekistan aims to cut its national poverty rate to 6 percent by the end of 2025, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced at the opening of the third international forum From Poverty to Prosperity in Namangan on September 17. The forum brought together representatives from more than 30 organizations and approximately 200 experts, including Islamic Development Bank President Muhammad Al-Jasser, Asian Development Bank Vice President Yingming Yang, Japan International Cooperation Agency Senior Vice President Sachiko Imoto, United Nations Special Representative for Central Asia Kaha Imnadze, and World Bank Global Director for Poverty Reduction Luis Felipe López-Calva. Mirziyoyev warned that the world is entering a period of increasing instability, citing climate change, water scarcity, pandemics, and slowing economic growth. Since 2015, global economic growth has averaged just 3 percent annually, while the number of people living in poverty has risen from 650 million to over 800 million. In Uzbekistan, poverty reduction has become a national priority. Over the past eight years, government reforms have focused on human rights, employment, and income generation, supported by international institutions such as the World Bank and the United Nations. According to official data, 7.5 million people have been lifted out of poverty, bringing the national poverty rate down to 8.9 percent in 2024. “By the end of this year, we aim to reduce it further to 6 percent,” Mirziyoyev said. Uzbekistan’s economy has doubled in size in recent years, with per capita income projected to reach $3,500 by the end of 2025. Growth has been driven by targeted social programs, mahalla-based community initiatives, and land reforms. During the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 2 million families received social assistance, while the redistribution of 235,000 hectares of farmland provided an additional source of income for 800,000 families. “Every neighborhood is becoming a hub for business, and every family is seeing the benefits of prosperity,” Mirziyoyev said. He added that Uzbekistan is on track to halve poverty by 2030, in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and could eradicate absolute poverty by the end of the decade. The president also called for a “new financial architecture” to mobilize global resources for sustainable development. He proposed hosting an international conference in Khiva in 2026, with the participation of donor organizations, financial institutions, and partner governments. “Uplifting human dignity through decent living conditions and poverty reduction lies at the heart of all our reforms,” he concluded.