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Economy

Kazakhstan’s Economy Posts Fastest Growth in 14 Years

Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 6.2% in the first half of 2025, marking the country’s fastest growth rate since 2011. The data was announced by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin during a government meeting. Zhumangarin noted that a similar level of growth was last recorded in the first half of 2011, when GDP increased by 7.1%, eventually reaching 7.5% for the full year. Since then, annual growth rates have rarely surpassed 6%. By comparison, the economy grew 4.8% in 2024. “The current figure is 0.2 percentage points higher than the growth recorded in the first five months of this year and is the highest in the last 14 years. For context, growth during the same period in 2024 was just 3.2%,” Zhumangarin said. He cited the real sector (+8%) and the services sector (+5.2%) as the primary drivers. Key Growth Sectors Transport (+22.7%) and construction (+18.4%) led the surge, driven in part by a 35.2% increase in grain and flour exports, which totaled 11.8 million tons. The mining industry also posted steady gains, with oil production rising 11.6% and coal production up 11.7%, contributing to overall mining growth of 8.4%. Manufacturing expanded by 5.5%, buoyed by strong performances in machinery (+11.1%), food production (+10%), oil refining (+9.6%), metal products (+14.6%), construction materials (+8.6%), and chemicals (+7%). Agricultural output rose by 3.7%. Trade and Investment Outlook From January to May 2025, Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover reached $53.5 billion. Exports stood at $29.8 billion, including $10.2 billion in high value-added products. Imports rose by 2.2% to $23.8 billion, resulting in a positive trade balance of $6 billion. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov reaffirmed the government’s ambition to double Kazakhstan’s GDP by 2029, a goal originally set in 2023. “Last year, our GDP was $286 billion. This year, we expect to surpass the $300 billion mark. If current growth rates hold, we are capable of reaching $450 billion by 2029,” Bektenov stated at a press briefing. He emphasized that the government is investing in industrial development, economic diversification, and high value-added production to ensure that the majority of national revenue and profits remain within Kazakhstan. Diverging Forecasts Earlier this year, the Eurasian Development Bank forecast Kazakhstan’s GDP growth at 5.5% for 2025, with similar rates expected for 2026 and 2027. However, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently downgraded its 2025 forecast from 5.2% to 4.9%, citing potential risks to oil output.

Remittance

Russian Inflows Drive Kyrgyz Remittance Surge

Kyrgyzstan recorded a sharp increase in remittance inflows during the first five months of 2025, reaching USD 1.367 billion —a 16% rise compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR). The increase was particularly notable in April and May, traditionally high-transfer months ahead of the summer season. In May alone, remittances totaled USD 299 million, up from USD 253 million in May 2024. Russia remains the dominant source of remittances, accounting for 94% of total inflows between January and May. The NBKR reported USD 1.2 billion in transfers from Russia during this period, reflecting a year-on-year increase of USD 188 million. This growth comes despite a significant drop in the officially registered number of Kyrgyz labor migrants in Russia from 650,000 in previous years to around 350,000 in 2025. Unofficial estimates, however, suggest the actual figure may exceed one million. The higher remittance volume suggests increased per-capita transfers or improved earnings among Kyrgyz migrants. In 2023, remittances from Russia stood at USD 2.532 billion. Even as the migrant workforce declined sharply in 2024, total transfers from Russia rose by USD 34 million, indicating persistent reliance on income from abroad. Other countries contributed relatively little to Kyrgyzstan’s remittance inflows. Transfers from the United States edged up to USD 27.6 million in the first five months of 2025, an increase of USD 600,000 from the previous year. In contrast, remittances from South Korea and Turkey declined sharply. Transfers from South Korea fell from USD 28.2 million to just USD 1 million, while Turkey’s contribution dropped from USD 6.9 million to USD 4 million. Remittances continue to play a central role in Kyrgyzstan’s economy, historically making up more than 30 percent of GDP. Yet the country’s ongoing reliance on Russia for these financial inflows highlights its exposure to external risks such as geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, and changes in foreign labor market policies. Looking ahead, the NBKR expects the upward trend in remittances to persist through 2025. However, long-term sustainability may hinge on diversifying migration destinations and strengthening domestic employment opportunities.

Trump Administration

Trump Confirms New U.S. Tariffs on Kazakhstan Starting August 1

Starting August 1, 2025, the United States will impose a 25 percent customs duty on exports from Kazakhstan. The decision was announced by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and later confirmed in an official letter from President Donald Trump to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The move has prompted mixed reactions, although analysts say the actual economic impact is likely to be limited. Tariffs and Diplomacy In a letter published on Truth Social, President Trump stated that the United States was “forced to correct years of distortions caused by Kazakhstan’s tariff and non-tariff policies.” He added that the 25 percent tariff remains “significantly less than what is needed” to address the ongoing trade imbalance between the two countries. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross clarified that the tariffs were originally scheduled to take effect on July 9 but have been postponed to August 1. Official notifications are already being sent to affected countries, with Kazakhstan’s notice scheduled for delivery on July 7 at 12 p.m. Eastern Time. President Trump also outlined a possible exemption: Kazakhstani companies that relocate production to the United States would not be subject to the new tariffs. Impact on Kazakhstan Earlier this year, Washington announced a 27% tariff on Kazakhstani goods, which was quickly suspended for 90 days pending negotiations. The revised 25% duty now stands as the highest imposed on any Central Asian country. Despite this, Kazakh political analyst Gaziz Abishev points out that the overwhelming majority of Kazakhstan’s exports to the U.S., including oil, uranium, ferroalloys, and silver, are excluded from the new measures. “These commodities represent more than 95% of total shipments and are included in the list of exemptions,” he said. As a result, the tariffs are unlikely to significantly impact trade volumes or foreign investment. Economist Eldar Shamsutdinov added that similar letters were sent to other nations, including Vietnam (40%), Malaysia (25%), Myanmar (40%), and South Africa (30%), framing the move as a continuation of existing trade policy rather than a new set of sanctions. Geopolitical Context The tariffs are part of a sweeping review of trade agreements under Trump’s administration. In April 2025, tariffs were applied to goods from 185 countries, and formal notices began rolling out in July. The administration has prioritized correcting what it deems “unfair trade imbalances.” In 2024, Kazakhstan exported $2.3 billion worth of goods to the U.S., while U.S. exports to Kazakhstan totaled $1.1 billion. Trump has cited this trade deficit as justification for the increased duties. Countries receiving similar letters include Japan, South Korea, Laos, Serbia, Tunisia, Bangladesh, and Indonesia, with tariffs reaching as high as 40%, underscoring the strategic and systematic nature of the U.S. policy shift. Kazakhstan’s Response Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration has announced plans to issue an official response but ruled out reciprocal measures. “In connection with the introduction of a 25% duty on goods from Kazakhstan by the U.S., the Ministry of Trade and Integration is preparing an official response. There is no question of retaliatory measures,” the ministry stated....

Economy

Kazakhstan to Raise Minimum Wage in 2026

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Labor and Social Protection, Svetlana Zhakupova, has announced that the government plans to raise the minimum wage starting January 1, 2026. While the exact amount was not disclosed, Finance Minister Madi Takiev suggested the minimum wage could increase to just over 90,000 KZT ($189) per month. Speaking on the sidelines of a joint meeting of both chambers of the Kazakh parliament, Zhakupova noted that last year her ministry approved a new methodology for calculating the minimum wage. The formula is based on labor productivity, median wages, and inflation. As all these indicators, especially inflation, have risen this year, an adjustment is being prepared. “Today, several institutions are conducting research to determine accurate indicators of labor productivity and median wages by region and by industry, all of which will inform the new minimum wage,” Zhakupova said. “By the end of the year, we expect to finalize the amount so that the increase can take effect from January 1.” Finance Minister Takiev echoed this projection, estimating the new figure at approximately 90,000 KZT. Currently, the minimum wage in Kazakhstan stands at 85,000 KZT ($164). If the forecast is accurate, the planned increase would be the smallest in seven years. For context, the minimum wage rose from 28,200 KZT to 42,500 KZT ($54 to $81) in 2019, to 60,000 KZT ($116) in 2022, and to 70,000 KZT ($135) in 2023. The current level was established in January 2024. Inflation for the first five months of this year reached 11.3%, according to official data. Earlier, parliamentary deputy Askhat Rakhimzhanov called for revising key social indicators, including the minimum subsistence level, minimum wage, and consumer basket. He argued the subsistence minimum, currently 46,000 KZT ($89), should be raised to at least 115,700 KZT ($223). Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin, who also heads the Ministry of National Economy, agreed that the minimum wage should rise but cautioned against abrupt increases. “Raising the minimum wage is complex. It must be balanced with efforts to contain inflation, as it leads to higher production costs and stimulates demand, which can further drive inflation,” Zhumangarin said. He acknowledged the sharp rise in prices and admitted he could not live on 85,000 KZT. According to the National Statistics Bureau, the average monthly nominal wage in Kazakhstan during Q1 2025 was 423,100 KZT ($816), while the median wage stood at 300,300 KZT ($579). Only 6.1% of the working population, or around 170,000 workers, earn less than 100,000 KZT monthly, according to the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC). The majority, 53%, earn between 150,000 and 350,000 KZT ($290 to $675). As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, medical personnel remain among the lowest-paid occupational groups in the country.

Economy

Kyrgyzstan Seeks Credit Rating Upgrade from Moody’s

Kyrgyzstan is aiming to secure an upgrade to its sovereign credit rating following a visit by a delegation from international ratings agency Moody’s, and meetings with top government officials, including Minister of Economy and Commerce Bakyt Sydykov. During the discussions, Sydykov presented Moody’s analysts with an overview of Kyrgyzstan’s socio-economic performance, ongoing structural reforms, and fiscal priorities. He formally requested that Moody’s consider raising the country’s credit rating. “The Kyrgyz Cabinet is consistently implementing policies aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability, fostering a competitive environment, and enhancing social protections for our citizens,” Sydykov stated. He noted that these measures are improving the investment climate and strengthening the country's financial position. Moody’s delegation also held separate consultations with representatives from the Ministry of Finance, the National Bank, and other key state institutions. The agency’s analysts focused on Kyrgyzstan’s fiscal policy, public debt sustainability, long-term economic growth prospects, and its investment climate. Government officials said that comprehensive data on macroeconomic indicators and policy initiatives were shared during what they described as a “constructive” dialogue. The consultations are seen as an important step in Kyrgyzstan’s engagement with international financial institutions. Moody’s currently assigns Kyrgyzstan a long-term sovereign credit rating of B3 with a stable outlook. This rating places the country in the speculative category, implying elevated credit risk, but with no immediate threat of default. In 2023, Moody’s revised Kyrgyzstan’s outlook from “negative” to “stable.” The agency at the time cited concerns over the nationalization of the Kumtor gold mine and the potential impact of Western sanctions on Russia, Kyrgyzstan’s primary trading partner. However, the feared capital flight and deterioration in economic indicators did not materialize. Despite this, Moody’s has continued to flag key vulnerabilities, including high levels of state intervention in the economy, lingering risks linked to domestic political instability, and the unpredictability of some government decisions. The next sovereign rating update from Moody’s is expected later this year.

Economy

EDB Forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth to Accelerate to 5.5% in 2025

Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, up from an estimated 4.8% in 2024, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). The forecast suggests this growth rate will be sustained through 2026 and 2027. “We expect Kazakhstan's economic growth to accelerate to 5.5% in 2025 after 4.8% in 2024, with these rates remaining unchanged in 2026-2027,” said Aigul Berdigulova, Senior Analyst at the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, during the presentation of the bank’s macroeconomic forecast. She emphasized that government initiatives to boost investment, particularly through the national holding company Baiterek, will be pivotal. Funding volumes for the economy are expected to reach KZT 8 trillion (approximately $15.2 billion), equivalent to about 6% of GDP. “This measure will help unlock investment potential in manufacturing, transport, and construction,” Berdigulova said. According to the EDB, these investment-backed policies are expected to counterbalance external shocks. Additional growth drivers include expansion at the Tengiz oil field, projected to contribute 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025, and ongoing fiscal stimulus, regional development efforts, and infrastructure projects. Kazakhstan ranks fourth among the EDB’s member states in terms of projected GDP growth for 2025, following Kyrgyzstan (10.3%), Tajikistan (8.4%), and Uzbekistan (6.5%). It is on par with Armenia (5.5%) and ahead of Belarus (3%) and Russia (2%). Inflation Set to Rise in 2025 Despite the optimistic growth forecast, inflationary pressures are expected to intensify. The EDB projects Kazakhstan’s inflation rate will reach 11.9% in 2025, its highest among the bank’s member countries. “Inflation in Kazakhstan is rising this year due to the weakening of the tenge observed at the end of 2024,” Berdigulova explained. She also pointed to continued increases in utility tariffs and inflation expectations amid discussions of tax and budget reforms, including a planned VAT hike. Inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter of 2026 before declining to around 8.5% by 2027. For comparison, Armenia is forecast to have the lowest inflation among EDB members at just 3.1%. According to preliminary data from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy, the country’s GDP grew by 6% year-on-year in the January-May 2025 period. However, not all institutions are as optimistic. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently revised its 2025 forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP downward, from 5.2% to 4.9%.