Electricity - The Times Of Central Asia

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Energy deficit

Central Asia Faces Growing Energy Deficit

Central Asia is heading toward a serious energy crunch. According to the Logistan.info portal, regional demand for imported natural gas is expected to reach 25 billion cubic meters annually by 2030. This looming shortfall is driven by rapid population growth, around one million people per year, industrial expansion, declining domestic production, and the deteriorating state of aging infrastructure. Recent accidents in Bishkek, Tashkent, Dushanbe, and Ekibastuz illustrate the scale and urgency of the problem. Kazakhstan: Rising Output, Falling Exports Kazakhstan produced 59.2 billion cubic meters of gas in 2024, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous year. However, nearly half of this was reinjected into oil reservoirs to sustain production. Only 29 billion cubic meters were available for domestic consumption. Soaring internal demand has already led to a sharp decline in exports to China, which fell 40% to 8.7 billion cubic meters. Uzbekistan: From Exporter to Importer Uzbekistan's situation is even more precarious. In 2024, the country produced 44.6 billion cubic meters of gas and 713,400 tons of oil, figures that are in decline, dropping 4.5% and 8.5% respectively. To cover the shortfall, Tashkent has turned to Russia and Turkmenistan, purchasing $1.7 billion worth of gas. Uzbekneftegaz expects to produce just 26.5 billion cubic meters of commercial gas in 2025, far short of projected domestic needs. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan produce virtually no hydrocarbons and rely entirely on imports of these resources. Meanwhile, demand continues to grow in tandem with their populations, and domestic energy generation falls short of even basic consumption needs. Turkmenistan remains the region’s top gas exporter, sending 41.3 billion cubic meters abroad in 2024. However, Ashgabat’s ability to increase exports is limited by its own growing domestic consumption, binding long-term contracts with China, and a lack of large-scale infrastructure development. Investment, Delays, and Structural Challenges While Central Asian governments have announced plans for new hydroelectric plants, combined heat and power stations, and nuclear power facilities, tangible progress remains slow. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have yet to break ground on any of their proposed nuclear power projects. Key obstacles include a shortage of qualified personnel, water scarcity, environmental concerns, and, above all, insufficient funding. Without substantial foreign investment, modernization efforts are likely to stall. To ease financial pressures, countries in the region have begun raising gas and electricity tariffs. These price hikes aim to offset upgrade costs but have provoked public backlash and fueled inflation. In Uzbekistan, for instance, inflation accelerated to 15% in May 2025, with energy prices cited as the primary driver. The Russian Option Forecasts for regional gas imports remain imprecise, but analysts estimate the need could rise to 20-25 billion cubic meters annually by 2030. Russia appears poised to become the main supplier, though details of supply agreements, including pricing, volumes, and terms, have not been disclosed. Central Asian governments are attempting to keep cooperation with Moscow strictly within the economic sphere, wary of entangling political dependencies. As a result, the region faces a dual challenge: securing energy stability through...

Energy

Tajikistan’s Energy Paradox

Tajikistan stands out among developing countries for having achieved near-universal access to electricity by 2022. This milestone, documented in the international SDG7-2025 report by the UN, World Bank, WHO, IEA, and IRENA, places the country alongside Eastern European and South Caucasus states in electrification. However, beneath this achievement lie persistent vulnerabilities, particularly in rural and mountainous regions, where winter brings regular power outages due to seasonal dips in hydropower generation and surging demand. Firewood and Coal Still Dominant Despite near-total electrification, Tajikistan remains significantly behind in access to clean cooking fuels. Fewer than 40% of the population use modern, safe technologies. In villages, the majority of households still rely on coal, firewood, or even manure for heating and cooking, practices that pose serious environmental and health risks, especially for women and children. Tajikistan’s power sector is heavily dependent on hydropower, which accounts for over 90% of electricity production. While this results in low CO₂ emissions, it also creates structural vulnerabilities. Climate change and glacial retreat threaten the reliability of this single energy source. Meanwhile, the potential of solar and wind energy remains largely untapped due to a lack of investment, insufficient institutional frameworks, and limited support for decentralized energy projects. Lagging in Energy Efficiency Tajikistan is one of the most energy-intensive countries in the region. Aging heating systems, poorly insulated buildings, and inefficient technologies in agriculture and industry all contribute to this inefficiency. The SDG7 report emphasizes the need to upgrade buildings and adopt energy-saving technologies. Some progress has been made: with assistance from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), thermal upgrades are underway in schools and hospitals. In 2021, Tajikistan received approximately $100 million in international support for energy projects, most of it allocated to hydropower. Major donors include the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and various UN agencies. However, investment in solar and wind energy, as well as broader energy efficiency initiatives, remains negligible. Experts are urging international partners to revise their priorities and fund projects that directly improve living standards, particularly in remote and rural areas. A Regional Disparity in Investment The pace of energy transition varies across Central Asia. While electrification is largely complete, access to clean cooking fuels remains uneven. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are notably behind in this area. In contrast, Uzbekistan has emerged as a regional leader, securing the bulk of international energy investment. Uzbekistan, on the contrary, entered the top five world leaders in attracting investments in green energy. Globally, progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) is slowing. As of 2022, 91% of the world’s population had access to electricity, but over two billion people still rely on harmful fuels for cooking. Energy efficiency improvements are lagging, advancing at just one-quarter of the pace needed to meet 2030 targets. Charting a Path Forward Experts recommend three immediate priorities for Tajikistan. First, scaling up decentralized solar and wind energy projects. Second, investing in the energy efficiency of buildings and infrastructure. Third, expanding access to clean cooking fuels through...

Foreign debt

Russia to Gradually Cancel Tajikistan’s $300 Million Energy Debt

Russia and Tajikistan have signed an agreement to gradually write off Tajikistan’s $300 million debt related to electricity supplied by the jointly operated Sangtuda-1 Hydropower Plant. The arrangement was confirmed by a protocol approved by the lower house of Tajikistan’s parliament, according to The Moscow Times. The agreement was signed in late April by Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev and Tajik Minister of Energy and Water Resources Daler Juma. Under the terms of the agreement, the debt will be cancelled in stages through 2034. Sangtuda-1, a 670-megawatt hydropower facility, accounts for approximately 12% of Tajikistan’s electricity production. Its sole customer is the state-owned energy company Barki Tojik, which has long struggled to meet payment obligations. Through this arrangement, Russia is effectively subsidizing electricity costs for Tajikistani consumers by absorbing the financial shortfall. Part of a Broader Debt Strategy This move is consistent with Russia’s broader approach to economic diplomacy among its allies. Tajikistan is not alone in receiving such relief. Earlier this year, President Vladimir Putin approved a deferral of Belarusian state loan repayments totaling $800 million, now rescheduled for 2031-2036. Russia has previously provided relief in $26.7 million in debt owed by Guinea-Bissau and canceled $691 million in Somali debt. In total, Moscow has forgiven around $20 billion in African debt, much of it tied to Soviet-era military transactions. Closer Financial Ties The debt relief agreement comes amid deepening financial cooperation between Dushanbe and Moscow. According to the National Bank of Tajikistan, more than 90% of bilateral trade is now conducted in Russian rubles, a sharp contrast to 2021, when trade was equally divided between the ruble and the U.S. dollar.

Electricity

World Bank Approves $100 Million to Modernize Uzbekistan’s Power Grid

The World Bank has approved a $100 million credit to support the modernization of Uzbekistan’s electricity distribution system and facilitate the integration of renewable energy sources. Uzbekistan’s Regional Electric Power Networks (REPN) will contribute an additional $50 million to the initiative, marking the country’s first use of the World Bank’s Program-for-Results (PforR) financing model. Uzbekistan’s aging power distribution infrastructure poses serious challenges. Over 50% of the network is more than 30 years old and suffers from significant inefficiencies. As of 2024, technical issues contribute to the loss of approximately 13% of electricity, resulting in frequent outages across the country. The government has set a target of installing 25 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, experts warn that without immediate upgrades to the national grid, Uzbekistan’s infrastructure will be unable to accommodate this expansion. In addition to technical improvements, the government is working to reduce commercial losses and enhance the financial viability of the electricity sector to attract private investment. Tatiana Proskuryakova, World Bank Country Director for Central Asia, highlighted the scale of the challenge. “The total investment needed is about $3 billion. We hope other development partners and private investors will join us in supporting REPN in this crucial effort,” she said. The combined $150 million from the World Bank and REPN will be deployed over the next five years to upgrade and expand infrastructure, particularly in regions such as Karakalpakstan and Surkhandarya. Planned improvements include: Construction or modernization of 6,000 kilometers of power lines Installation of 1,200 transformers Connection of 150,000 smart meters Deployment of 4,000 data concentrators to improve automation The program also aims to enhance REPN’s operational and financial management. It includes the development of advanced planning methodologies, strengthened financial oversight, and support for corporate governance reforms. By 2029, the initiative is expected to increase customer satisfaction, reduce annual CO₂ emissions by up to 450,000 tons, and raise the proportion of women in technical and leadership roles from 9% to 14%. Earlier this year, the World Bank also approved $153 million in support of a project aimed at reforestation and combating land degradation in Uzbekistan, as part of a broader regional climate resilience program.

Electricity

Kazakhstan Faces Record Power Deficit as Electricity Shortfall Hits 2.4 Billion kWh

Kazakhstan has experienced its most significant electricity imbalance in recent years. According to data from Energyprom.kz, the gap between electricity production and consumption reached 2.4 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2024, an increase of 200 million kWh from 2023, when the shortfall stood at 2.2 billion kWh. While the country’s total generation amounted to 117.9 billion kWh, domestic consumption exceeded 120.4 billion kWh. Imports Offset Domestic Shortfalls To address this growing energy deficit, Kazakhstan primarily imports electricity from Russia. Smaller volumes are supplied by Kyrgyzstan, although these are typically part of Russian transit deliveries to Kyrgyz consumers. Despite these imports, domestic electricity generation continues to grow at a modest pace. In 2024, total generation rose by 4.2%, with a 3% year-on-year increase recorded in the first two months of 2025. Nevertheless, the production boost has not been sufficient to meet demand, necessitating continued reliance on external suppliers. Decline in Coal Dependence One notable trend is the gradual reduction in Kazakhstan’s dependence on coal-fired thermal power plants (TPPs), traditionally among the most polluting energy sources. In 2024, the share of coal-fired generation declined from 77.4% to 74.9%, equivalent to approximately 88.4 billion kWh of total output. In contrast, the share of alternative power sources increased. Hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) contributed 9.5% of total generation, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, while gas turbine power plants (GTPPs) accounted for 10.1%, a 0.3-point increase. Renewable energy sources, including wind, solar, and biogas, produced 6.4 billion kWh, representing 5.4% of total electricity output. Revised Forecasts and Growing Challenges The Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan has updated its projections to reflect the sector’s challenges. As of early 2025, officials estimate the country’s electricity deficit could grow to 5.7 billion kWh by year-end. This revision stems from downgraded forecasts for generation volumes, which are now projected at 117.1 billion kWh, down from an earlier estimate of 121.8 billion kWh. Expectations for the commissioning of new generation capacity have also been lowered, further exacerbating the shortfall. Nonetheless, government planners remain cautiously optimistic. If several large-scale energy projects move forward on schedule, the deficit could shrink to 2.6 billion kWh by the end of 2026. A full build-out of planned capacity could even lead to a surplus. New Capacity and Long-Term Plans The government has outlined plans to construct 59 new energy facilities with a combined capacity of 26.4 gigawatts (GW). These include both new builds and upgrades to existing plants. Major initiatives involve constructing a nuclear power plant (2.4 GW) and a third state district power station (GRES-3) with 2.6 GW of capacity. Additionally, 11 regional centers are set to receive combined-cycle gas turbines with a total capacity of 4.5 GW. Renewable energy is also a key focus. By 2029, Kazakhstan aims to commission four large wind power plants equipped with energy storage systems, totaling 3.8 GW in capacity. These projects are being developed through intergovernmental agreements with investors from the United Arab Emirates, France, and China.

Electricity

Kazakhstan to Import Electricity from Tajikistan to Address Energy Shortages

Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have signed an agreement on long-term cooperation in the energy sector. The agreement will remain in effect for 20 years, with the possibility of a 10-year extension. The document aims to strengthen energy security, promote environmentally friendly technologies, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Monitoring and telemetry Under the agreement, Kazakhstan will receive scheduled electricity supplies from Tajikistan, particularly from the Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP). These imports are intended to cover planned shortages in the North-South zone of Kazakhstan’s unified power system. The price is set at $0.034 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), including VAT at a zero rate. The agreement also includes the introduction of hourly electricity metering at connection points between Kazakhstan's and Central Asia’s power grids, as well as along the Tajik border. Kazakhstan's system operator, KEGOC JSC, will receive real-time telemetry data from Tajikistan via interstate transmission lines to ensure accurate metering and efficient coordination. Electricity deliveries will follow the routes specified in the purchase agreements. The primary source will be the Rogun HPP, with supplies timed to match Kazakhstan's peak shortage periods. A long-awaited step Energy cooperation between the two countries has been under discussion for some time. In August 2024, former Kazakh Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliev held talks on importing electricity from Tajikistan. These discussions also addressed the issue of unscheduled electricity flows between their power grids. By December 2024, plans were already in place to finalize a 20-year agreement. In February 2025, the deal was confirmed during talks between Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu and his Tajik counterpart, Sirojiddin Mukhriddin. “We agree that Tajik-Kazakh energy cooperation has broad prospects. We have agreed that an intergovernmental agreement on electricity will be signed in the very near future,” the Tajik foreign minister said at the time. The potential of the Rogun HPP and prospects for Kazakhstan A key element of the agreement will be the Rogun hydroelectric power plant on the Vakhsh River. Once completed, its dam will reach a height of 335 meters, making it the tallest in the world. The power plant will have a capacity of 3,600 MW, making it the largest power plant in Central Asia. This makes the project strategically important not only for Tajikistan but for the entire region. The official website of the Rogun HPP states that the facility will be the upper stage of the Vakhsh cascade and will play a key role in ensuring sustainable energy supplies. The agreement is expected to not only enable Kazakhstan to stabilize its energy balance during peak loads, but also open up new opportunities for cross-border cooperation. With the growing demand for green energy, the strategic alliance with Tajikistan could become an important element of the country's energy transition. The resolution enters into force on the day of its signing and effectively launches an intergovernmental mechanism capable of strengthening Kazakhstan's energy security for decades to come.