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Energy

Uzbekistan Solar Panel Program Targets 3,100 Sites in $20 Million Project

A $20 million solar-panel program in Uzbekistan has so far provided 1,580 homes and 334 public institutions with free electricity-generating systems. A further 1,197 households are expected to receive the equipment by May 2027. The program, known as Yorqin Xonadon (“Bright Home”), is being implemented by Uzbekistan's Ministry of Energy, Saudi energy company Acwa, and China Southern Power Grid International. According to information provided to The Times of Central Asia by Acwa, the initiative was launched in April 2023. About 65% of the new installations are intended for Karakalpakstan, an autonomous republic in northwestern Uzbekistan that has been severely affected by the drying of the Aral Sea. Each home receives solar panels with a capacity of approximately 3 kilowatts (kW) and a battery with a storage capacity of 4.8 kilowatt-hours (kWh). During the day, the system generates electricity, while stored energy can be used in the evening or when sunlight is insufficient. How well this setup meets a particular family's needs depends on its electricity consumption and the season. Program participants can reduce their electricity bills and receive payments for surplus power supplied to the grid. According to the Ministry of Energy, more than 45,000 people received a total of 209.2 billion soums (approximately $17.8 million) for electricity supplied to the grid in 2025. While the initiative could help recipients reduce their electricity bills, its contribution to the country's overall energy needs will be small. The 2,777 household installations planned under the program would together provide about 8.3 megawatts (MW) of generating capacity. Based on the country's solar potential, these systems could generate approximately 12–13 million kWh annually, less than 0.02% of the 86.7 billion kWh produced nationwide in 2025. The estimate excludes installations at public institutions, for which capacity figures have not been provided. Uzbekistan's electricity consumption is rising, while natural gas remains the country's main source of power. Large solar and wind farms generated 10.5 billion kWh of electricity in 2025. Although Yorqin Xonadon will make only a small contribution to national electricity generation, it could help thousands of low-income households reduce their energy bills.

Bilateral Relations

Tokayev and UK Trade Minister Discuss Investment, Energy and AI Cooperation

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with UK Minister of State for Trade Lord Anas Sarwar in Astana on October 7 to discuss cooperation in energy, transport and logistics, digitalization and artificial intelligence. Tokayev said the United Kingdom remains one of Kazakhstan’s leading trade and investment partners. Bilateral trade rose by 83% in 2025 to more than $1.6 billion, according to the Kazakh presidency. More than 500 British companies operate in the country. The commercial relationship has long been anchored partly in energy. British energy major Shell holds stakes in the Karachaganak and Kashagan projects, and in March signed a new exploration contract in Kazakhstan’s Aktobe region. “Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom are connected by constructive political dialogue and active engagement at various levels,” Tokayev said, adding that there was significant scope to expand cooperation further. The talks come several months after Kazakhstan ratified a Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the United Kingdom covering trade, investment, energy, critical minerals, education and other areas. The agreement was originally signed in Astana in 2024. Sarwar welcomed the development of the strategic partnership and thanked Tokayev for supporting British business projects and creating a favorable investment climate. “We are following Kazakhstan’s dynamic development with great interest and highly value the similarity of our approaches to key issues on the international agenda,” Sarwar said. He said Britain wanted its partnership with Kazakhstan to deliver concrete results, citing innovation and free trade as shared priorities. Critical minerals have emerged as one area of more practical cooperation. At the inaugural CA5+UK ministerial meeting in London in February, Kazakhstan and Britain agreed on a critical minerals roadmap through 2027. Existing cooperation includes a rhenium project involving Kazakhstan’s Zhezkazganredmet and British company Maritime House. The October 7 presidential readout did not announce any new agreements or investment commitments. The two sides also discussed academic exchanges and joint educational initiatives. British universities have established a growing presence in Kazakhstan, including Cardiff University’s campus in Astana, which opened in September 2025 as the university’s first overseas branch campus. Tokayev encouraged young Kazakhs to study foreign languages, particularly English. “Developing trade and economic ties requires not only new projects and investment, but also people capable of working confidently in an international environment,” Tokayev said. Tokayev also invited British Prime Minister Andy Burnham to visit Kazakhstan.

Foreign Investment

Karakalpakstan Investment Push Brings $7.6 Billion in New Projects

Uzbekistan has announced 58 projects worth about $7.6 billion in Karakalpakstan, ranging from wind power and data centers to transport and healthcare. At a September 18 ceremony, 11 projects worth $592 million were commissioned or launched, while construction began on 47 more with a combined value of $7 billion. The projects are expected to create around 8,000 jobs, according to the presidential press service. Wind Power Leads Investment Push Among the largest projects is the 1.5-gigawatt Kungrad Wind Farm, being developed with Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power. The Uzbek government values the project at $2.6 billion, although ACWA’s own project page puts its cost at just over $3 billion. The development includes extensive new transmission infrastructure and substation upgrades to connect the plant to Uzbekistan’s power grid. The wind farm will also include a 300-megawatt battery energy storage system. Once completed, it is expected to become one of the largest wind power projects in Central Asia. ACWA is already operating renewable energy facilities in Karakalpakstan. The Nukus-1 and Nukus-2 projects have a combined wind power capacity of 300 MW, along with 100 MW of battery storage. According to ACWA Central Asia President Abid Malik, the company’s planned, operational, and under-construction projects in Karakalpakstan represent about 2.3 GW of generation capacity and around $4 billion in investment. The projects are expected to generate about 8.77 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, enough to cover the energy needs of approximately 2.4 million households, while saving around 2.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas. “Karakalpakstan is becoming one of the most vital investment destinations for ACWA in Uzbekistan,” Malik told The Times of Central Asia. He said construction of the Kungrad project could create around 4,000 jobs at its peak, while local content could reach approximately $750 million. ACWA is also supporting workforce development, with 78 students from Karakalpakstan currently studying at Shirin College to prepare for work in the country’s energy sector, Malik said. The ceremony also marked the launch of two wind power plants with a combined capacity of 300 MW and a 100 MW energy storage system in Karauzyak district. Health, Digital and Transport Projects Other projects launched during the visit included the $27 million Sheikh Khalifa Hospital in Nukus, built in cooperation with the United Arab Emirates. The 100-bed facility has created 80 jobs. A Karakalpak Scientific and Practical Medical Academy is also being established for medical training and research. The first phase of a modular computing center operated by the Chinese company Shanghai LinkWise Data Intelligence was launched in Takhiatash district. The presidential office valued the phase at $150 million. Chinese partners are also involved in projects worth a combined $2.281 billion to “produce digital currency” and establish artificial intelligence data centers in Kungrad and Takhiatash. The presidential statement did not identify the partners or explain what producing digital currency would entail. Transport infrastructure is another focus. A $20 million project by SAPSAN TRANS NO‘KIS has already delivered 25 buses and electric buses to Nukus, with another 75 electric buses...

Energy and infrastructure

Opinion: Kazakhstan Energy Expansion May Not Guarantee a Lasting Surplus

Kazakhstan plans to commission 13.3 GW of power capacity by the end of 2029, including 12.56 GW of entirely new generation, in a build-out the government says will move the country from deficit to sustained surplus. But new industrial projects and large data centers could absorb part of that margin almost as soon as it appears. According to Energy Ministry projections, Kazakhstan expects to eliminate its electricity deficit by the end of the first quarter of 2027 and move to a sustained surplus by 2029. The projected electricity balance for 2029 calls for generation of 162.1 billion kWh against consumption of 144.5 billion kWh, leaving a surplus of 17.6 billion kWh. However, it is difficult to predict exactly how much electricity the country will need three years from now. Therefore the forecast "surplus" will not necessarily become a reserve available for future industrial projects. Energy Hungry Data Centers Kazakhstan is pursuing a swathe of new energy-intensive industrial projects, while data centers are emerging as another major source of electricity demand. The Data Center Valley project is being developed in Ekibastuz, where the government says 300 MW of power capacity has already been secured, with plans to expand to 1 GW. It cites competitive electricity costs and the ability to scale up as advantages of the location. At full scale, such a cluster would itself become a major electricity consumer. If it drew 1 GW continuously, it would consume about 8.76 billion kWh a year – roughly half the projected national surplus for 2029. Kazakhstan’s digital ambitions already extend beyond a single data center. In June, the government announced $10 billion in agreements with U.S.-based Firebird and NVIDIA to build a large AI computing center using 100,000 advanced computer chips. The project will form part of the Data Center Valley initiative. By the end of 2029, Kazakhstan plans to commission 13.3 GW of capacity, of which 12.56 GW will come from entirely new generating facilities and 0.74 GW will replace existing capacity. According to the Energy Ministry, 7.4 GW of the total will be baseload generation and another 5.9 GW will come from renewable energy sources. The full 13.3 GW cannot be treated as spare power for new factories and data centers. Some will be needed to meet rising demand and make the electricity system more reliable. Solar and wind power also cannot produce at full capacity all the time. This is particularly important during periods of peak demand, when the power system must cope simultaneously with high consumption and possible maintenance or outages at generating facilities. A projected annual surplus measured in billions of kilowatt-hours and the amount of capacity available during a particular peak hour are therefore different measures. Upkeep of Current Power Sources The condition of existing generation remains a separate problem. Much of Kazakhstan’s thermal generation is aging and requires modernization. The Energy Ministry reported that 411 billion tenge was allocated to the 2025 repair campaign, during which 10 power units, 63 boilers, and 39 turbines were repaired. It said...

Energy

Kazakhstan Mini-Refineries Eye Russia After Rail Export Restriction Lifted

Kazakhstan has lifted a railway export restriction on petroleum products from mini-refineries. For small plants, many of which operate well below capacity, the decision restores an opportunity to sell their products outside the country. Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the national railway company, revoked the restriction following an August 7 decision by the country’s Chief Transport Prosecutor’s Office. The timing is notable: after a series of strikes on its refineries, Russia is facing fuel shortages and has already begun importing gasoline from abroad, including Kazakhstan. Other restrictions on fuel exports from Kazakhstan remain in force, so the KTZ decision does not fully reopen gasoline and diesel exports. Some fuels remain subject to separate bans, and exports to Russia are treated differently from shipments outside the Eurasian Economic Union. What Mini-Refineries Produce The number of mini-refineries actually operating in Kazakhstan depends on how such facilities are defined. Official documents have referred to roughly 30 small petroleum-product producers. More recent industry data provide a clearer picture: more than 30 mini-refineries are registered, with declared crude-processing capacity of about 4.5 million metric tons a year. Of these, 22 are considered operational, with a combined capacity of about 2 million tons. Actual processing is considerably lower, having increased from roughly 400,000 to 800,000 tons annually over the past five years. These are not smaller versions of Kazakhstan’s major refineries in Atyrau, Pavlodar, and Shymkent. Most mini-refineries lack equipment for deep refining, so their output is simpler. Their main products include fuel oil, heating and marine fuels, naphtha, and other distillates. In 2023, mini-refineries processed 895,000 tons of feedstock and produced 346,000 tons of fuel oil, 145,000 tons of diesel fuel, and 171,000 tons of bitumen. Much of this output was not intended for Kazakhstan’s motorists. Mini-refineries produce semi-finished products, including straight-run fuel oil with a relatively high share of light fractions that can be processed further. Their opportunities on the domestic market are also limited by product quality: Kazakhstan has required K4 and K5 motor-fuel standards since 2018, while official assessments say mini-refineries generally lack the equipment to produce fuel above the K3 standard. Restoring export opportunities could therefore have a tangible economic effect for these businesses. The plants have spare capacity but insufficient domestic demand for much of their current product range. Rail exports once again give them a way to look for buyers outside Kazakhstan. And that inevitably raises the question of Russia. Russia Is Looking Abroad for Fuel There is no direct evidence that KTZ lifted the restriction specifically because of the Russian market. Neither the Kazakh authorities nor the railway company has made such a connection. But the decision comes at a convenient time for potential Russian buyers. Ukrainian drone strikes and unplanned refinery outages have reduced Russian gasoline production and contributed to domestic shortages. Moscow has responded by restricting fuel exports and increasing imports from abroad. Russia has already turned to several suppliers. In July, Belarus shipped a record 212,000 tons of gasoline to Russia, while Moscow has also begun...

opinion

Turkmenistan and the New Geopolitics of Silicon

Central Asia is not foreign to the emerging geopolitics of silicon and artificial intelligence (AI). Kazakhstan especially has made itself noticed, joining the US-led Pax Silica initiative in June and the Chinese-led World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) in July. Kazakhstan is the only country participating in both initiatives, which is characteristic of Astana’s multi-vector diplomacy. Whilst other Central Asian states have joined WAICO, Turkmenistan, consistent with its permanent neutrality stance, has joined neither. Neutrality, however, does not prevent economic participation, and a case has to be made for Turkmenistan. Two Frameworks for International Cooperation Although both initiatives respond to the same underlying reality - the growing strategic importance of artificial intelligence - they differ in scope and emphasis. Pax Silica is built around the material and economic foundations of AI, focusing on securing and coordinating the physical supply chains that make computation possible and aiming implicitly to reduce reliance on China. WAICO, by contrast, is centered on the political and normative dimension of AI, prioritizing governance, safety standards, and international coordination, where Beijing could push its rhetoric in favour of open-source artificial intelligence as a model for AI development. Taken together, they reflect two complementary but distinct ways of structuring the emerging AI order: one rooted in industrial capacity and supply-chain control, the other in multilateral rules. On that matter, Turkmenistan's possible relevance does not lie in software, semiconductor fabrication or AI regulation, but much further upstream: silicon metallurgy. From Gas to Silicon Silicon is abundant in nature, but transforming it into industrial materials is an energy-intensive process. Quartz or quartzite is used to produce both silicon ferroalloys and silicon metal. Ferrosilicon is principally consumed by the iron and steel industries, where it serves as a deoxidizing and alloying agent. Silicon metal, meanwhile, is used in aluminum alloys and chemical production, while a small share is further purified into the extremely high-purity silicon required by the semiconductor industry. Ferrosilicon should not be presented as a material that goes directly into AI chips. But establishing competitive ferrosilicon production can constitute a first industrial step into the broader family of silicon metallurgy. And Turkmenistan has already begun considering precisely that. In 2020, the Turkmen authorities reported that the Ministry of Industry was studying the production of metallurgical-grade silicon using local resources. Practical tests had already been conducted using quartz sand, metal mixtures and petroleum coke, while the government presented the development of domestic mineral resources as part of a broader strategy of industrialization and export diversification. The ambition became more concrete in January 2024. Turkmenistan's Ministry of Industry and Construction Production launched an international tender for a feasibility study for a ferroalloy plant intended to manufacture ferrosilicon, silicon carbide, and technical silicon. A 2024 feasibility study for such a project envisions a plant in Balkan Velayat capable of producing 15,000 tons of FeSi75 ferrosilicon annually. The proposed complex would operate two 12,500 kVA furnaces. Rather than depending exclusively on domestic raw materials, the study envisages sourcing quartzite from nearby Iran and...