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On the Threshold of Cold Weather, Kyrgyz People Stockpile Coal

Kyrgyz authorities have extended a temporary ban on coal exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) customs territory. The decree, signed by the head of the Cabinet of Ministers, Akylbek Japarov, aims to prevent a sharp rise in coal prices amid growing demand and to mitigate potential public unrest caused by fuel shortages. The ban, which will remain in effect for six months, excludes coal exported by the state enterprise Kyrgyzkomur. This coal is sold to neighboring Uzbekistan. The Kyrgyz Ministry of Economy and Commerce has been tasked with notifying the World Trade Organization of this decision. As temperatures drop, coal outlets across Kyrgyzstan are experiencing a rush of purchases by residents anxious to prepare for the cold weather. This surge in demand has caused coal prices to rise. To address the issue, the Antimonopoly Service has begun conducting regular inspections of retail outlets to identify sellers inflating prices. “We visit trading outlets undercover and identify sellers who artificially increase prices. Citizens also report violations via our hotline. According to the law, individuals can be fined 3,000 KGS (around $35), and companies can face fines of up to 13,000 KGS (approximately $150),” explained Taalaibek Kenzheshev, a leading specialist in the Antimonopoly Regulation Service's department, during an interview with The Times of Central Asia. In response to rising prices, the government has opened state-run coal outlets to sell fuel directly to consumers without intermediaries, ensuring more affordable pricing. “At private markets, sellers often cheat by selling coal in bags with insufficient weight. State-run outlets sell coal by weight, making it more reliable and cost-effective,” shared Sanzhar Orozbekov, a resident of Chui Oblast, with The Times of Central Asia. The Antimonopoly Regulation Service has set maximum coal prices in each region, depending on logistics complexity and the distance from coal mines. The highest coal prices are in Karakol, located east of the Issyk-Kul region, while the cheapest coal is found in southern Kyrgyzstan. However, even in the south, prices are influenced by coal exports to Uzbekistan. Imported Kazakh coal remains popular among Kyrgyz residents despite its higher cost. Known for burning more efficiently and producing greater heat, it is a preferred choice for some. However, the government intends to phase out the use of Kazakh coal at the Bishkek combined heat and Power Plant (CHPP), planning instead to rely entirely on domestic coal sources. According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy, the country will need 2.6 million tons of coal for the upcoming autumn-winter season, half of which is required by households. The Ministry has assessed preparations for winter as adequate and has assured citizens that there will be no power outages this year.

Energy Nuclear power

Who Will Build Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Plant?

There are three generally discussed possibilities for construction of Kazakhstan’s newly approved nuclear power plant (NPP). One is that Russia is sole contractor. Another is that China is sole contractor. Each of these choices has its own rationale yet also geo-economic and geopolitical drawbacks for Kazakhstan. Third, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has publicly stated that he favors an international consortium with participation by companies from China, France, Russia, and South Korea. This option, however, faces logistical challenges, particularly in dividing responsibilities among consortium members and determining the sourcing of critical components. Tokayev has already discussed with France’s President Emmanuel Macron the possible participation of the French companies Orano and EDF in particular. Orano focuses on various aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle, including uranium mining, enrichment, and waste management. EDF specializes in design, construction, and operational management. This opens the door to a fourth possibility. Orano, EDF and the British-German firm Urenco together can provide all the NPP construction and management services necessary to realize the project. But Kazatomprom, which focuses on mainly on mining and processing, has not been mentioned in any of these schemes. Such an alternative approach, involving Western companies like Orano, EDF, and Urenco, could ensure comprehensive services with strong Western involvement, possibly including Kazatomprom, thus boosting local capacity and creating a "demonstration project" for broader natural resource collaboration within NATO frameworks. This kind of partnership could help Kazakhstan reduce its dependency on single external actors, thereby enhancing its strategic autonomy. Moreover, by involving Kazatomprom, the project could focus on knowledge transfer and capacity building, fostering local expertise and reducing external dependencies over time. It is reasonable that an offer to take Kazatomprom into a Western consortium and to make capacity building in Kazakhstan, at Kazatomprom and elsewhere, an explicit goal of the project, would be welcome in Astana. Cooperation via NATO platforms could likewise offer Kazakhstan access not only to technical specialists from NATO countries but also to more joint training exercises and workshops, to complement an exchange of knowledge on best practices in nuclear safety and energy resilience. And that would be only a “demonstration project” for the constructive expansion of the energy component of NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) into broader natural-resource and rare-earth domains. Indeed, there is no reason even to wait for the NPP project. Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan, is a periodic table of the elements, especially rare-earth elements, and their exploration and development has been under way for some time. Building upon the energy-security successes through NATO's PfP, this proposal suggests expanding cooperation with Caspian region Partner countries into the mining sector, specifically for rare-earth elements critical to defense. Extending PfP to include these resources aligns with NATO's and Partners' core security goals, offering broader opportunities to secure the supply chain and enhance collective defense capabilities. This extension also presents a strategic avenue to mitigate risks associated with supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Leveraging the extensive experience of partnership in energy security, NATO and its Partner countries could begin with...

Energy COP29 Green Energy Middle Corridor Trans-Caspian International Transport Route TITR Nuclear Energy

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan Stand Out at COP29

The 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), held in Baku from November 11–22, 2024, has underscored the critical role of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in advancing Caspian Sea regional energy transitions. Both countries leveraged their positions along the Middle Corridor to present ambitious renewable and nuclear energy strategies. Azerbaijan: Renewables and the Middle Corridor Azerbaijan, the host and chair of COP29, has positioned itself as a renewable energy connector between Central Asia and Europe. Its energy strategy reflects a pragmatic approach to transitioning from hydrocarbons, which accounted for 88% of government revenues in 2023, to a diversified portfolio incorporating solar, wind, and hydropower. Azerbaijan has prioritized key renewable energy projects to align with its goal of achieving a 30% renewable share in its electricity mix by 2030. Among these is the operational Garadagh Solar Power Plant, a 230-megawatt (MW) facility developed by the UAE's Masdar, which generates 500 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) annually. Complementing this is the planned Alat Solar Project, a 400-MW solar installation expected to be operational by 2027. These projects aim to bolster domestic electricity supply and expand Azerbaijan’s capacity to export renewable energy. The Caspian Offshore Wind Initiative, backed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), seeks to harness the Caspian Sea’s favorable wind conditions. A 1-gigawatt (GW) wind farm is under preliminary study, with construction anticipated to begin by 2026. This project could transform Azerbaijan into a renewable energy hub for the Middle Corridor, particularly as Europe reduces its dependency on Russian energy. Kazakhstan: Nuclear Ambitions and Renewable Diversification Kazakhstan’s energy strategy focuses on nuclear power and renewables, driven by the need to reduce coal dependency, which still accounts for two thirds of its electricity generation. The government’s approval of its first nuclear power plant, following a nationwide referendum in October 2024, is central to this strategy. The planned nuclear reactor, located near Lake Balkhash, will generate 1.2-GW of electricity, replacing approximately 20% of coal-fired generation. This initiative complements Kazakhstan’s status as the world’s largest uranium producer, supplying over 40% of global demand and generating $3.6 billion in export revenues in 2023. Potential consortium members for the project include South Korea’s KEPCO, France’s Orano and EDF, China’s CNNC, and Russia's Rosatom, although economic-sanctions issues complicate Russia’s involvement in the nuclear sector. Kazakhstan is simultaneously scaling up renewable energy projects, with several key initiatives underway. The Zhanatas Wind Farm, operational since 2022, produces 100-MW of power, and the Shelek Solar Park, a 200-MW solar facility near Almaty, is expected to come online in late 2025. Together, these projects aim to increase renewables to 15% of Kazakhstan’s electricity mix by 2030, quintupling the level from 2023. The Trans-Caspian Electricity Cable Project At the COP29 conference, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, along with Uzbekistan, announced an ambitious trans-Caspian electricity cable project through an underwater transmission system. This infrastructure initiative, estimated to cost $2.5 billion, seeks to establish an electricity corridor linking Central Asia with European markets, representing a significant step in regional energy integration. The project...

Finance Energy Export/Import Rogun HPP hydroelectric economic

Kazakhstan to Begin Purchasing Electricity from Rogun HPP

Kazakhstan has announced plans to purchase electricity from Tajikistan’s Rogun hydropower plant (HPP), a major facility currently under construction. According to a draft agreement published on Tajikistan's official legal information portal, the cooperation between the two countries is set to last for 20 years, with an option to extend for an additional 10 years. The price for the electricity is set at $0.034 per kilowatt-hour (excluding VAT), plus a transit surcharge determined by the seller’s costs. Payments are to be made within 35 days for each supply period. The supply will only occur during scheduled shortages and will be integrated into KEGOC’s national grid. Rogun HPP will handle transportation to the border, while the Settlement and Financial Center for Renewable Energy Support LLP will oversee control on the Kazakh side. Any disputes arising from the agreement will be resolved through the Singapore International Arbitration Center. Electricity agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are a critical component for securing international financing for the Rogun HPP’s construction. Project costs have risen to $6.4 billion, according to recent estimates. To cover these costs, the Tajik government is negotiating semi-concessional loans worth $1.73 billion, $850 million in grants, and $390 million in concessional loans. The remainder will come from the government budget and revenues generated by the plant. This year, the Tajik government allocated 5 billion somoni (approximately $460 million) for the Rogun project, with 2.8 billion somoni coming from the state budget and 2.2 billion somoni from investment projects. By the end of September 2024, 4.3 billion somoni (about $395 million) had already been spent on construction. Once completed, Rogun HPP will become the largest hydropower facility in Central Asia, boasting a capacity of 3,600 MW and capable of producing up to 17 billion kWh of electricity annually. This output represents 65–85% of Tajikistan’s total electricity production. The plant will house six units of 600 MW each, with full commissioning expected by 2029. Currently, two units are operating at low capacity, having been commissioned in 2018 and 2019. The project serves as a landmark achievement for Tajikistan’s energy sector and a key driver of regional energy cooperation, promoting economic stability and resource-sharing throughout Central Asia.

Energy Export/Import Electricity supply Economic Cooperation Energy Infrastructure EU

Uzbekistan Aims to Export 10-15 Billion kWh of Electricity to Europe by 2030

Uzbekistan plans to export 10-15 billion kWh of electricity abroad by 2030, according to Deputy Minister of Energy Umid Mamadaminov, who discussed the initiative in an interview on November 6 during the “Days of European Economy in Uzbekistan” forum. “In 2030, electricity demand is projected to be around 120-125 billion kWh. Our generation capacity will reach approximately 135 billion kWh. Once the necessary infrastructure is ready, we’ll be able to export electricity to Europe,” Mamadaminov explained. At a meeting in Astana in August, Uzbekistan outlined plans to start exporting surplus electricity to Europe by 2030. Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov noted that if the joint project with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to lay a cable under the Caspian Sea is successful, Uzbekistan will be able to transmit excess energy to Europe. Mirzamahmudov said that renewable energy capacity would exceed 4 GW by the end of this year and is expected to reach over 20 GW by 2030, with 2-5 GW available for export. In the summer, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan agreed on a draft strategic partnership to develop and transmit green energy. The agreement includes terms for a preliminary feasibility study, which is being developed by the Italian company CESI. “We selected CESI to handle the project’s feasibility study,” Mamadaminov stated. “The study will take about a year and a half to complete, with an expected finish date by the end of 2025. Following this, construction will begin based on the study. The project requires around 2,500 km of HVDC (high-voltage direct current) cable, which will be costly—exceeding $2 billion.” Mamadaminov added that the electricity price will be market-driven but is expected to start at around 4-5 cents per kilowatt.

ADB to Help Kazakhstan Move Away from Coal Power Generation

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signed a memorandum of understanding, moving closer to the possible early retirement of a coal plant in Kazakhstan under the bank’s Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) program. Under the memorandum, the ministry and ADB will work toward a pilot transaction that will demonstrate a pathway to significantly reduce Kazakhstan’s greenhouse gas emissions by decommissioning pilot coal plants for renewables or other low-c or repurposing carbon energy technologies. A feasibility study will determine which of the country’s coal-fired power generation, combined heat and power plants and heat-only boilers could be the most viable for early retirement. ADB and Kazakhstan have also agreed to analyze the potential impact of early decommissioning or repurposing of a plant on the country’s power and heat supply, develop the country’s renewable energy generation capacity, and promote regional energy trade. ADB Director General for Central and West Asia Yevgeniy Zhukov commented: “Keeping 1.5 degrees alive means moving away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy as quickly as possible—and ADB’s ETM program aims to do that in a way that considers each country’s energy and socioeconomic development needs. As Asia and the Pacific’s climate bank, we are committed to helping Kazakhstan inclusively decarbonize its economy, and we aim to demonstrate how the clean energy transition can be accelerated in Central Asia.” Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan Almassadam Satkaliyev added, “Kazakhstan will need to develop a new approach in the power, heating, and water sectors as a single technological system, and we rely on ADB’s support and experience. I hope this program will demonstrate new systems' technological shift and reliability through ETM, which can then be replicated in other plants and regions.” Kazakhstan is a major consumer of coal, with 25 billion tons of coal reserves estimated to be the eighth largest worldwide. About 70% of the country’s electricity is produced from coal, while energy-related activity, including heat and electricity production, accounts for more than 80% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Kazakhstan’s long-term strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 involves reducing its use of fossil fuels and increasing its renewable power generation capacity.