Russia Fuel Crisis Pushes Central Asia to Seek Alternatives

Disruptions at Russian oil refineries are beginning to reshape Central Asia’s established fuel supply routes. Kyrgyzstan is arranging supplies from China; Tajikistan has requested large volumes of crude oil and fuel from Iran, while Kazakhstan plans to more than double its refining capacity and eventually sell more petroleum products to its neighbors. Kyrgyzstan: The China Route Becomes a Real Option Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have felt the impact of Russia’s disruptions more acutely than other Central Asian countries. Both have limited domestic oil production and depend heavily on imported fuel. Galiya Ibragimova, a Central Asia expert with Carnegie Politika, told Al Jazeera that the two countries had been hit hardest in the region and said the search for new suppliers would continue, although alternative fuel would most likely be more expensive. For Kyrgyzstan, the Russian supply model had long been the most convenient. As a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Kyrgyzstan can import agreed quantities of Russian fuel duty-free each year. For 2026, Moscow has agreed to supply around 1.5 million tonnes – roughly equivalent to Kyrgyzstan’s total annual demand for petroleum products. More than 90% of Kyrgyzstan's imported fuel comes from Russia. This summer, that system began to falter. On August 12, Kanatbek Eshatov, head of Kyrgyzstan’s Oil Traders Association, said Russian refineries were offering virtually no additional volumes. Fuel was already arriving from Belarus, Azerbaijan, Turkey, one European country, and other markets. Eshatov did not expect the situation with Russian supplies to improve before October. Bishkek has also negotiated directly with China’s largest oil companies. Following talks with Sinopec, a Kyrgyz delegation met CNPC management on August 19. Kyrgyz companies signed contracts with CNPC for petroleum product supplies through Kunlun Logistics, according to Kyrgyz state news agency Kabar. Volumes and prices have not been disclosed. China is unlikely to displace Russia quickly on price. There is no direct rail connection between China and Kyrgyzstan, while road transport across the mountainous border is more expensive. But direct contacts with Sinopec and CNPC are giving Kyrgyz traders a supply channel that until recently was barely used. Another option is to refine more oil domestically. The country’s largest refinery, Junda in Kara-Balta, is moving to the next stage of a modernization project valued at $193.75 million. The plant is expected to increase petroleum product output and move to Euro 5 fuel standards. Kyrgyzstan does not produce enough crude to keep the refinery running at capacity, however, so it would still need to import much of the oil it refines. Bishkek is therefore keeping Russian finished fuel [bit technical] in the mix while purchasing petroleum products from other markets. It is also looking to refine imported crude domestically. Tajikistan: Iranian Crude Rather Than Just Another Gasoline Supplier Dushanbe has chosen a larger-scale option. During talks with Iran, Tajikistan requested 2.55 million tonnes of crude oil and petroleum products: 2 million tonnes of crude, 300,000 tonnes of diesel, 150,000 tonnes of gasoline, and 100,000 tonnes of jet fuel. Tajikistan’s Transport Ministry announced the...

Russia’s Fuel Crisis Deepens as Queues and Rationing Return

Russia’s fuel shortages have worsened again after easing in late July, with queues returning to filling stations and sales restrictions reappearing across several regions. In early August, hours-long queues were reported in at least 12 regions. Orenburg and Lipetsk reinstated systems allowing motorists to buy fuel on alternate days according to their license plate numbers. Similar restrictions had been used during the first wave of shortages in June and July. The shortages have been linked to refinery outages following Ukrainian drone attacks, high seasonal demand, and problems moving fuel between regions. Russia’s government has acknowledged difficulties with fuel supplies in several regions and ordered officials and oil companies to keep working to stabilize the domestic market. The pressure has also led to confrontations. In Volgograd on July 17, police detained five residents who were recording a video appeal to Alexander Bastrykin, head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, about fuel shortages and priority access at filling stations. One participant was later jailed for five days after the authorities said he resisted police. Local reporting said officials treated the recording as an unauthorized public gathering. Moscow has meanwhile taken increasingly broad steps to protect domestic supplies. The government extended restrictions on fuel exports from August 1, with the gasoline ban due to remain in force until January 31, 2027. It has also temporarily allowed production and imports of lower environmental-grade gasoline as it tries to increase availability. The effects are already reaching Central Asia. Kazakhstan is tightening controls on its own fuel market as Russia looks for additional supplies, while Kyrgyzstan has opened direct talks with China as Russian deliveries become less reliable. A second wave of shortages in Russia adds further pressure on governments that have long depended on Russian petroleum products.