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Central Asia Poised to Outpace Global Growth in 2025, IMF Projects (With One Exception)

The year 2025 is anticipated to bring moderate growth for the global economy, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.2%, reaching $115.3 trillion at current prices. While global growth is expected to remain stable, it is weaker than initially forecast. The IMF notes that the economic outlook for the United States has improved, but growth expectations for other advanced economies, particularly in Europe, have been downgraded. Emerging markets and developing economies continue to grapple with a range of challenges, including production disruptions, shipping delays, geopolitical conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events. These factors have tempered growth prospects in regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, emerging Asia is experiencing robust growth, fueled by strong demand for semiconductors and electronics, underpinned by substantial investments in artificial intelligence. Additionally, public investment in China and India is driving regional economic expansion. However, the IMF forecasts that global growth will average 3.1% annually over the next five years, a pace slower than pre-pandemic levels. Global Economic Highlights In 2025, the United States is expected to retain its position as the world’s largest economy, with a GDP of $30.3 trillion at current prices. China will follow with $19.5 trillion, while Germany is projected to rank third at $4.9 trillion. Japan and India will occupy fourth and fifth places, with GDPs of $4.4 trillion and $4.3 trillion, respectively. Central Asia Outlook In Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 5.7%, reaching $127.4 billion at current prices, according to the IMF. This growth rate positions Uzbekistan as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia, is expected to achieve 4.6% growth, with GDP reaching $306.6 billion. Kyrgyzstan’s GDP is forecast to grow by 5%, reaching $17.3 billion at current prices. Tajikistan’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5%, with GDP projected at $14.1 billion. Turkmenistan is forecast to experience slower growth, with its GDP increasing by 2.3% to reach $91.1 billion.

Government Economic Growth GDP Infrastructure Development Economic Reforms small and medium businesses reduce poverty cabinet

Kyrgyzstan Unveils Ambitious Growth Plans at People’s Kurultai

On December 20, Bishkek hosted the third People’s Kurultai (Congress), a platform for direct dialogue between representatives of local communities from across Kyrgyzstan and the country’s top leadership. The event featured opening remarks by President Sadyr Japarov and a detailed address by newly appointed Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Adylbek Kasymaliyev, who outlined the government’s economic priorities and strategic plans for the future. Japarov set the tone for the event by sharing his vision for Kyrgyzstan’s development priorities. He announced that construction of the long-anticipated China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will commence on December 27. Kasymaliev, in his address, emphasized Kyrgyzstan’s ability to sustain economic momentum, citing the country’s 9% annual GDP growth rate over the past three years. He highlighted key initiatives aimed at transforming Kyrgyzstan’s economic landscape, including: Strategic Infrastructure Projects: Kasymaliyev underscored the significance of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which is expected to create new economic centers and logistics hubs, effectively positioning Kyrgyzstan as a "land port" in the region. Hydropower and Renewable Energy: As a reliable partner in Central Asia’s hydropower sector, Kyrgyzstan will continue collaborating with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on the flagship Kambarata-1 hydroelectric power plant. Kasymaliyev also announced plans to expand solar and wind energy, eliminate state monopolies in the energy sector, and create conditions to attract private investment. Agriculture and Food Security: The government will prioritize agricultural processing to add value to raw products, ensuring food security and bolstering rural economic development. Construction as an Economic Driver: With construction contributing 7.4% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP - a tenfold increase since 2013 - Kasymaliyev called the industry a vital indicator of economic growth. He noted that construction has significantly improved citizens' well-being over the past three years. Government’s Strategic Goals Kasymaliyev laid out an ambitious roadmap for the Cabinet of Ministers, aiming for the following by 2030: Economic Growth: Maintaining a GDP growth rate of 9% and achieving a GDP of $30 billion. Income Growth: Raising GDP per capita from $2,500 to $4,000. Economic Transition: Shifting from a services-oriented economy to an industrial-agrarian model. Support for Small and Medium Businesses: Increasing their share in GDP from the current 40.5% to 50%. Poverty Reduction: Lowering the poverty rate to 17%. Education Expansion: Ensuring 80% of preschool-age children have access to kindergarten. Kasymaliyev’s address underscored the government’s commitment to comprehensive economic reforms and regional cooperation. His plans reflected an optimistic vision for Kyrgyzstan’s development while addressing key challenges in energy, infrastructure, and social services.

Tourism Economy GDP international tourism tourism industry

Uzbekistan Named Most Desirable Emerging Destination for 2024

Uzbekistan emerged as the Most Desirable Emerging Destination for 2024. For the 23rd year, Wanderlust Travel magazine has invited readers to select their favorite destinations for its annual Reader Travel Awards. This year, 168,000 readers cast more than three million votes across 22 categories recognizing top destinations, tour operators, and tourism brands. Renowned for its Silk Road heritage, Uzbekistan offers a unique blend of historical and natural attractions. The Wanderlust report highlighted the country’s ancient cities, including Samarkand and Bukhara, as “remarkable time capsules” with Islamic architecture and bustling bazaars. Samarkand’s Registan Square was described as "unmissable." The report also praised Uzbekistan's natural landscapes, such as the Kyzylkum Desert and the Aral Sea, which remain lesser-known but equally impressive highlights. Uzbekistan’s tourism sector is rapidly expanding. Between January and October 2024, the country welcomed 6.5 million foreign visitors, a 17.2% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This growth equates to an additional 951,300 tourists. In June, a group led by Professor Gil Stein from the University of Chicago toured Uzbekistan for two weeks, visiting cultural hubs such as Khiva, Bukhara, Samarkand, Tashkent, and the Fergana Valley. Professor Stein commended Uzbekistan’s efforts to preserve its rich cultural heritage, noting that the country attracts a diverse range of visitors, including Islamic pilgrims, Buddhist heritage enthusiasts, and cultural heritage tourists. In 2023, Uzbekistan’s tourism industry generated $2.14 billion, contributing 2.35% of the nation’s GDP. The government is implementing measures to further bolster the sector. These include a $50 million credit line for local tourism businesses, tax exemptions for selected operators, specialized hotel management courses, and an online platform designed to assist tourists in planning their trips.

Government Economic Growth GDP World Bank Economic Reforms

World Bank Chief Economist Owes a Bottle of Wine to Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet Chief

During a conversation with Hugh Riddell, head of the World Bank’s office in Kyrgyzstan, Akylbek Japarov, Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, shared an anecdote about a wager made with the World Bank’s chief economist. “In 2022, at a World Bank session in Washington, your chief economist and I bet that Kyrgyzstan’s economic growth over the next 3-4 years would remain stable and exceed 7%. He doubted this was possible and was ready to wager a bottle of fine wine,” Japarov recounted at a recent event focused on Kyrgyzstan’s development. Japarov highlighted the latest economic figures to underscore his point: GDP growth for the first 11 months of 2024 stands at an impressive 9%. Confident in his position, Japarov announced his intention to claim his winnings. The anecdote reflects broader optimism about Kyrgyzstan’s trajectory. According to data presented by World Bank experts during discussions with the presidential administration, 89% of Kyrgyz citizens believe the country is moving in the right direction regarding political, social, and economic reforms. The World Bank is actively monitoring socio-economic trends in Kyrgyzstan through its “Listening to the Kyrgyz Republic” project. This initiative conducts monthly panel surveys of 1,500 households across all regions, using telephone interviews to track citizens’ well-being and gather insights into national development trends.

GDP Regional Security EDB Economic Growth Economy Regional Development

Central Asia’s Economy Expands Fourfold Over Two Decades, Outpacing Global Growth Rates

Over the past two decades, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Central Asia has grown fourfold in real terms and sevenfold in nominal terms, according to Evgeny Vinokurov, Deputy Head of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). Vinokurov highlighted significant improvements in the region’s economic landscape. Over the same period, population mobility has tripled, and incoming investments have surged by more than 17 times. Vinokurov emphasized that the last two years have underscored Central Asia’s status as an economically attractive and strategically important region. Positioned at the heart of Eurasia, Central Asia boasts strong transport and transit potential, a growing consumer market, and expanding opportunities for investment. Despite external challenges, the region’s economies have displayed remarkable resilience, maintaining steady growth and weathering global shocks effectively. Between 2022 and 2023, Central Asia’s economies grew at an average annual rate of 4.8%, significantly outpacing the global average of 3.4%. This makes the region’s growth rate 1.4 times faster than the global average. Vinokurov projected that Central Asia’s nominal GDP will surpass $500 billion in 2024. Despite these achievements, Central Asia faces complex challenges that require regional collaboration. Key issues include: -- Lack of access to the sea: Geographical isolation limits trade and economic integration. -- Climate and environmental risks: These pose threats to sustainable development. -- Water and energy management: Disjointed policies among countries hinder efficiency and sustainability. Vinokurov stressed the importance of joint efforts to address these challenges. Coordinated development of water and energy resources, renewable energy, and the Eurasian transport framework can yield cost-effective and efficient solutions. Central Asia’s impressive economic growth over the past 20 years reflects its potential as a key economic and transit hub in Eurasia. While the region faces significant challenges, collaborative solutions and investments in infrastructure and sustainability could unlock further growth and prosperity.

Economy Strategy Economic Growth GDP Economic Reforms Forecast

S&P Global Ratings Predicts 5.6% Annual Growth for Uzbekistan Through 2027

S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed Uzbekistan’s long-term sovereign credit rating at BB, forecasting strong economic growth averaging 5.6% annually from 2024 to 2027. This growth will be driven by public investment and private consumption. While rising public and external debt presents some risks, S&P expects fiscal and current account deficits to narrow after peaking in 2023. Economic Projections Uzbekistan’s gross general debt is projected to reach 39% of GDP in 2024, a level considered moderate by global standards. Most of this debt originates from official creditors under concessional terms. The agency’s stable outlook reflects robust growth prospects, balanced against challenges posed by debt accumulation. The country’s economy expanded by 6.6% in the first nine months of 2024, fueled by sectors such as construction, trade, and communications. Investments continue to play a pivotal role, with Uzbekistan maintaining one of the world’s highest investment-to-GDP ratios at 34%. Key investment areas under the “Uzbekistan - 2030” strategy include energy, transport, agriculture, and tourism. Diversification and Energy Goals As part of efforts to diversify energy sources, Uzbekistan is targeting 40% green energy by 2030. Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power has pledged $7.5 billion in investments for electricity projects. The government is also expanding exports of critical resources such as copper, gold, silver, and uranium to boost revenue streams. Opportunities and Risks Despite challenges such as low GDP per capita and reliance on remittances, Uzbekistan benefits from a young workforce and rising foreign investment. However, risks remain, including potential sanctions on companies linked to Russia and difficulties in creating sufficient jobs. In 2024, remittance inflows - primarily from Russia, along with Germany and South Korea - increased by 35%, providing a significant economic boost. Trade with Russia also grew by 26%, and Uzbekistan signed a two-year gas import contract with Gazprom. Meanwhile, the government is taking steps to mitigate the risks of secondary sanctions stemming from its trade ties with Russia. Broader Context These developments align with Uzbekistan’s long-term economic strategies while highlighting both opportunities and vulnerabilities. S&P’s latest forecasts reaffirm the country’s growth trajectory, supported by strategic investments and economic reforms, yet underscore the importance of managing debt and external risks.