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Economy

Tokayev: Kazakhstan’s GDP Could Reach $320 Billion by End of 2026

Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product could reach $320 billion by the end of 2026, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said at a forum for parliamentary deputies. Speaking at the event, Tokayev noted that the global economy is facing heightened geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, which he linked to declining trust between major powers and what he described as a weakening of international responsibility mechanisms. “Of course, the current situation directly affects our country’s opportunities. But despite this, we are overcoming challenges, maintaining steady economic growth, and consistently implementing our national strategy,” Tokayev said. According to him, Kazakhstan’s GDP reached $306 billion in 2025. He described this as the second-highest level among post-Soviet countries and the highest in Central Asia. Tokayev also said Kazakhstan had entered the world’s top 50 economies and cited forecasts by international financial institutions suggesting that GDP could reach $320 billion by the end of 2026. Investment and reserves Kazakhstan continues to attract significant foreign direct investment, Tokayev said, noting that net inflows had exceeded $150 billion. According to him, this represents about 69% of total investment directed to Central Asia. He added that the country’s financial buffers remain substantial. Gold and foreign exchange reserves stand at about $74 billion, while total reserves, including assets held in the National Fund, amount to approximately $139 billion. Industrial and agricultural growth Tokayev said economic expansion is being driven not only by overall growth but also by structural changes. In particular, manufacturing output has increased by more than 6% annually over the past two years. He also highlighted the importance of the agro-industrial sector, which he said affects the living standards of 7.4 million people, or about 36% of Kazakhstan’s population. State support for agriculture has increased in recent years. In 2025, more than $2 billion was allocated for concessional lending to farmers, which Tokayev described as the largest level of support provided to the sector since independence. According to Tokayev, government policy aims not only to expand agricultural production but also to develop a modern, export-oriented agro-industrial economy. He said that in 2025 around 250 new production facilities were launched in the sector, while international companies increased their presence in agricultural projects. Major investment initiatives involving foreign partners are being implemented in the Almaty, Akmola, Zhambyl, and North Kazakhstan regions, as well as in the city of Shymkent. Total investment in these projects exceeds $1 billion and is expected to create tens of thousands of jobs. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, export revenues from Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial sector reached $7 billion in 2025, an increase of 37% compared with the previous year.

Economic Growth

Central Asia Accounts for 1.3% of Global Economic Growth

A recent study by Visual Capitalist, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund, maps who is powering global growth in 2026. The analysis highlights heavyweights like China, which accounts for 26.6% of global GDP growth, India at 17.0%, and the United States at 9.9%. Together, these three economies account for roughly 53–54% of global economic expansion, underscoring their scale and sustained growth momentum. Yet beneath those headline figures lies a quieter but strategically important development: Central Asia is steadily increasing its contribution to global economic growth. According to the study, Kazakhstan is set to contribute 0.7% of total global GDP growth in 2026, making it the clear regional anchor. Uzbekistan adds 0.4%. Turkmenistan will contribute 0.1%, while both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will account for approximately 0.05% each. Taken together, this amounts to a 1.3% share of global GDP growth. While modest in absolute terms, the figure is notable given the region’s scale. With a population of over 80 million—comparable to Germany and Turkey—Central Asia’s aggregate contribution compares with these mid-sized advanced economies, which account for roughly 0.9% and 2.2% of global growth respectively. Moreover, with projected average annual growth exceeding 6%, Central Asian economies are expanding faster than much of Europe and other mature markets, reinforcing their rising relative contribution to global economic momentum.

Economic Growth

Trade Accounted for More Than a Quarter of Kazakhstan’s Economic Growth in 2025

The trade sector accounted for 26% of Kazakhstan’s total economic growth in 2025, according to the Ministry of Trade and Integration. Data from the National Statistics Bureau show that the country’s GDP grew by 6.5% in January-December 2025, equivalent to $20.1 billion in nominal terms, bringing the total size of the economy to $305.9 billion. More than a quarter of this growth was generated by trade. At a government meeting, the Ministry of Trade and Integration reported that domestic trade turnover reached $162.3 billion in 2025, while investment in the sector amounted to $2.6 billion. Non-resource exports totaled $41 billion, and services exports increased by 3.7% to $12.3 billion. Speaking at the meeting, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said the ministry’s objective is not only to maintain current momentum but also to raise trade to a new level of efficiency and competitiveness. Key priorities include expanding wholesale and retail turnover, increasing the share of domestically produced goods in the market, ensuring stable supplies of socially important products, shortening the supply chain between producers and retailers, boosting exports, and systematically reducing the shadow economy in the trade sector. Special emphasis was placed on measures to curb inflation and ensure adequate food supplies for the domestic market. According to Zhumangarin, a preliminary pool of approximately 1,500 projects has been formed under the “Investment Order” initiative. These projects are aimed at expanding the production of goods with high import dependence, including more than 500 in the agro-industrial complex, over 400 in manufacturing, and the remainder in infrastructure. The ministry’s key task is to secure guaranteed sales channels for products manufactured within these projects. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that trade between Central Asian countries and China exceeded $100 billion in 2025, setting a new record.

Economy

Kazakhstan Targets Raising Wage Share of GDP to 40%

The Kazakh government is preparing a series of measures aimed at accelerating wage growth and increasing the overall wage fund, with the goal of raising its share in the country’s GDP to 40%, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov announced during an expanded government meeting. According to government estimates, household incomes are currently growing more slowly than the broader economy and corporate profits, including those generated with state support. At present, wages account for roughly 31% of Kazakhstan’s GDP, a figure considered relatively high by Central Asian standards but still below the levels seen in developed economies, where wage funds typically exceed 40% of GDP. Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in 2025 reached $20.1 billion in monetary terms, with the economy expanding at an annual rate of 6.5%, according to official data. To address the income gap, the government is developing a comprehensive package that includes financial, tax, and regulatory incentives for employers to raise wages. The initiative also prioritizes the creation of new, decently paid jobs, upskilling of the workforce, and reducing the financial burden on citizens. Real income growth has been designated a key economic policy priority for 2026. A complementary role will be played by the upcoming Joint Action Program for 2026-2028, developed by the Cabinet, the financial regulator, and the National Bank. The program aims to stabilize the macroeconomic environment and improve public welfare, setting a target of household income growth at a rate of at least 2-3% above inflation each year. According to official statistics, the average monthly salary in Kazakhstan stood at approximately $873 by the end of the third quarter of 2025. However, earlier reports indicated that the minimum wage will remain frozen at $172 in 2026, despite prior commitments to increase it.

Economic Growth

Tajikistan Reports Strong 8.4% Economic Growth in 2025

Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8.4% in 2025, according to official data released by the country’s statistical authorities, marking one of the strongest growth rates in Central Asia last year. President Emomali Rahmon announced the figure during a year-end address to parliament, saying gross domestic product reached approximately 173 billion somoni, or about $18.8 billion. Official data shows growth was driven primarily by industry, construction, agriculture, and services. The Statistical Agency under the President of Tajikistan reported that industrial production increased by more than 20% year-on-year, supported by mining, metallurgy, cement production, and food processing. Construction activity also expanded, reflecting continued state investment in roads, housing, and energy infrastructure. Authorities highlighted ongoing work on the Rogun hydropower project as a central pillar of economic policy. The dam is expected to secure the domestic electricity supply and boost exports once fully operational, particularly to neighboring markets. Remittances remained a key contributor to economic growth in 2025. Transfers from Tajik migrant workers, most of whom are employed in Russia, rose during the year, supporting household consumption and helping offset external economic pressures. According to the World Bank, remittances have accounted for a very large share of Tajikistan’s GDP, with personal remittances near 48% of GDP in recent years, leaving the economy highly exposed to labor market conditions abroad. Foreign trade turnover also increased. Exports of electricity, metals, and agricultural products rose, while imports of machinery, fuel, and construction materials expanded alongside investment activity. Regional media reported that China, Russia, and neighboring Central Asian states remained Tajikistan’s main trading partners in 2025. Despite the strong headline growth, international financial institutions have continued to flag structural weaknesses. The International Monetary Fund has warned that sustaining high growth will require reforms to improve governance, strengthen the banking sector, and expand the role of the private sector in the economy. Analysts also note that rapid growth partly reflects a low statistical base and heavy reliance on state-led investment. Job creation in higher-value sectors remains limited, contributing to continued labor migration and leaving the economy vulnerable to external shocks. The government has set similarly ambitious targets for 2026, with officials emphasizing industrialization, infrastructure development, and energy exports. Whether Tajikistan can maintain its pace of growth while addressing long-standing structural constraints will remain a key test for the country’s economic trajectory in the coming years.

Economy

Kazakhstan’s Economy Grew by 6.5% in 2025

Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 6.5% year-on-year in January-December 2025, according to preliminary data from the National Statistics Bureau. The Ministry of National Economy reported that the key drivers of GDP growth were industry, transport, construction, and trade. At year-end, the industrial production index stood at 7.4%, with the manufacturing sector showing steady growth of 6.4%. Positive dynamics in industry were attributed to an 8.1% increase in food production, a 5.9% rise in oil refining, 9.8% growth in the chemical industry, a 1.2% uptick in metallurgy, and a 12.9% increase in machine building . The transport and warehousing sector recorded a substantial 20.4% growth in 2025, driven by increased freight transport by road and rail, alongside growth in passenger transport across various regions. The volume of ancillary transport services also expanded, including freight forwarding, air traffic control, airport and warehouse operations, and grain and refrigerated cargo storage. Construction surged by 15.9%, linked to the implementation of major infrastructure and social development projects, including the building of schools, medical facilities, and transport and engineering infrastructure. In the same period, 20.1 million square meters of housing were commissioned, a 5.1% increase from 2024. Trade posted an 8.9% increase by the end of the year, led by wholesale trade, which comprised more than two-thirds of the sector’s volume. Notably, wholesale trade in grain, seeds, and animal feed rose by 160%, trade in equipment nearly doubled, and pharmaceutical sales increased by 44.1%. Sales of automobiles grew by 33%, while dairy products, eggs, edible oils, and fats rose by 25.8%, and sugar, chocolate, and confectionery products by 21.2%. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 5.9%, supported by a 7.8% increase in crop production and 3.3% in livestock production. The information and communications sector posted 3.6% growth. “Overall, the pace of economic development reflects the steady growth of key industries,” the Ministry of National Economy stated. For comparison, GDP growth in 2024 stood at 5%, with the largest contributions from construction (15.3%), agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (13.7%), transportation and warehousing (9.4%), wholesale and retail trade (8.9%), and manufacturing (6.8%). As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev forecast in early December 2025 that GDP would exceed 6% growth by year-end.