• KGS/USD = 0.01185 0.85%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09394 0%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01185 0.85%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09394 0%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01185 0.85%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09394 0%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01185 0.85%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09394 0%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01185 0.85%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09394 0%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01185 0.85%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09394 0%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01185 0.85%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09394 0%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01185 0.85%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09394 0%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 3

IMF: Uzbekistan’s Foreign Debt to Decrease by 10% in 2029

 According to a new  report issued by the International Monetary Fund,  in recent years and against uncertainties from the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, Uzbekistan's rapid growth in economy is set to continue in tandem with a significant decline in poverty. Despite a slowdown in the development of trade partners and the removal of the fiscal stimulus in 2023, a strong economic growth is predicted for this year and supported in the medium term, by the completion of budgetary consolidation, ongoing structural reforms, and continuing capital inflows, demonstrates the government’s commitment to promoting market-oriented reforms to further Uzbekistan’s economic development. Challenges still remain, however, in the large state footprint in the economy and last year’s expansionary fiscal policy, which the authorities determined to persevere in their reform efforts, must address to advance sustainable and inclusive growth. The monetary policy which has reduced inflation must continue until it reaches the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's target. Sustaining a high real policy rate, tight fiscal and macro-prudential policies, and supportive structural reforms would gradually reduce inflation to the target by the end of 2027 and the CBU should stand ready to increase its policy rate if the energy price reform leads to broader price pressures and raises inflation expectations. The government should continue efforts to accelerate the restructuring and privatization of state enterprises, eliminate preferences for state-owned enterprises and unbundle large enterprises to increase competition and improve the business environment. The authorities are accelerating efforts for WTO accession and undertaking measures to bolster external competitiveness and export diversification; opening markets and reducing monopolies would boost growth and help reduce inflation. According to the IMF’s analysis, it will reach 60.1% of GDP at the end of 2024, and the country's total external debt is expected to decrease to 51% of GDP by 2029. Similarly, from 33% of GDP at the end of 2024, government-guaranteed external debt is likely to decline to 27% by 2029. Several factors contribute to these positive statistics. The government of Uzbekistan aims to limit the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by introducing annual limits on the budget deficit and new debts. In addition, the 2023 public debt law limits state-guaranteed debt to 60% of GDP, with proposals for debt reduction if it reaches 50%. As stated in the report, the authorities emphasized their commitment to maintaining a moderate level of debt and noted that the government’s goal of reducing and maintaining the medium-term fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP would send purchasing power parity and external borrowing as a share of GDP downwards

High Gold Prices Keep the Uzbek Economy Afloat

In March this year, Uzbekistan became the largest seller of gold in the world: eleven tons of the strategic asset were sold. This strategy has allowed it to maintain reserves at a time of increasing government debt and state budget deficit. "We have a trade deficit, a budget deficit. Perhaps other exports are not as good as we would like them to be. With high gold prices amid geopolitical instability, there are worse times to sell gold," Yuli Yusupov, an independent Tashkent-based economist, told Radio Ozodlik. As of May 1, Uzbekistan's foreign exchange reserves totaled $34.2 billion, of which about $26.5 billion was gold, according to the country's Central Bank. By the end of 2023, the country's "financial safety cushion" has decreased by $1.2 billion - from $35.77 billion to $34.56 billion. Gold helps Uzbekistan "stay afloat" in difficult economic conditions. Between 2010 and 2014 the country exported 207 tons; between 2015 and 2020 it exported 480 tons. Now, Uzbekistan produces an average of 100 tons of gold per year, with plans to produce 150 tons. At this rate, gold reserves should last 20-30 years, but the republic is developing new quarries, the reserves of which could be quite impressive. For example, reserves in the Yoshlik mine may be up to 5,000 tons. Nevertheless, according to analysts, the constant sale of gold is not a long-term solution, and it will be necessary to develop industrial production and services, and export goods with high added value. Uzbekistan's growing dependence on gold is evidence of obvious problems in the economy, which, despite visible positive changes, remains in a deadlock. By the end of 2023, when Uzbekistan's trade deficit amounted to a record $13.7 billion, the share of gold exports in the total volume rose to a third. President Mirziyoyev's rise to power marked sweeping economic reforms that have attracted foreign investors, but at the same time increased external debt, which by the end of 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund, amounted to $31.7 billion, or 35.1% of the country's GDP, roughly doubling in the past five years. Under Islam Karimov (Uzbekistan's first president) this varied between 10-15%.

Kyrgyzstan’s Economy Grew Strongly in 2022 and So Far in 2023, Says IMF

Kyrgyzstan’s Economy Grew Strongly in 2022 and So Far in 2023, Says IMF The economy of Kyrgyzstan performed strongly in 2022, expanding at 6.3% despite the headwinds from the difficult regional environment. Tax revenue improved sharply, and public debt declined to 49% of GDP. Headline inflation fell from 14.7% in December 2022 to 9.2% in October 2023, Nikoloz Gigineishvili, head of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission that held consultations with the Kyrgyz Republic during November in Bishkek said in a statement on December 4th. The current account deficit widened significantly to 43.6% of GDP in 2022 as non-oil imports increased by 26% of GDP and gold exports were suspended, while re-exports to Russia were not captured in official statistics, the statement said. Growth is expected to remain at around 4% in the medium term, and inflation to decline to mid-single digits. However, further escalation of the war in Ukraine and secondary sanctions which could further weaken the Russian economy and result in the return to Kyrgyzstan of migrant workers could  reduce trade and growth, the IMF statement concludes.