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Economic Growth

Kyrgyzstan Reports Strong Economic Growth and Budget Surplus

Kyrgyzstan's consolidated budget for 2025 is expected to exceed $12.5 billion, marking the first time it will cross the historic threshold of one trillion soms. The announcement was made by Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev during a government meeting on December 8. Kasymaliev stated that while the 2025 state budget was initially approved at the equivalent of $8 billion, it had expanded by $4.3 billion by year-end, leaving the country with a budget surplus of more than $110 million. According to the Statistics Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission, Kyrgyzstan was the only member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to post a budget surplus in the first nine months of 2025. The surplus totaled $1 billion, with revenues reaching $4.9 billion and expenditures at $3.9 billion. By comparison, the surplus in the same period of 2024 was $0.5 billion. Citing International Monetary Fund data, Kasymaliev noted that Kyrgyzstan ranked among the top three countries globally in terms of real GDP growth in 2024. The national economy grew by 10% in the first ten months of 2025, with all major sectors showing expansion. The construction sector led with a remarkable 42.8% growth rate. GDP per capita for 2025, initially projected at $2,616, is now expected to reach $2,770 by the end of the year. Kyrgyzstan’s international reserves also saw a significant increase. As of the end of October 2025, reserves stood at $7.955 billion, up by $3.02 billion compared to October 2024, according to the National Bank. The National Statistics Committee earlier reported that Kyrgyzstan’s GDP grew by 11.5% in 2024. Services accounted for the largest share of GDP at 52.3%, followed by goods-producing industries at 33.3%, industry at 17%, construction at 7.7%, and agriculture at 8.6%. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts record-high economic growth for Kyrgyzstan in 2025, driven by robust investment activity. From January to October, fixed capital investment rose by 18.9%, with state budget funds and company resources accounting for 31% and 23% of that total, respectively.

Economic Growth

Kazakhstan Projects Strong GDP Growth as Economy Nears 300 Billion Dollars in 2025

Kazakhstan’s economy is entering a new phase of growth. By the end of 2025, the country’s gross domestic product is projected to exceed $300 billion for the first time, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced at a national award ceremony for the Altyn Sapa, Paryz, and Best Product of Kazakhstan prizes. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan’s GDP has shown consistent growth in absolute terms, with the exception of the pandemic year of 2020, when the economy contracted to $171.1 billion. Since then, the country has reached new historical highs each year, from $197.1 billion in 2021 to $288.41 billion in 2024. In 2025, growth is expected to reach a record level.The president noted that, over the past five years, growth in the real sector has become noticeably more balanced. Gross value added in the manufacturing industry increased by 25 percent, outpacing growth in the extractive sector. “Economic growth is expected to exceed 6% this year,” Tokayev said. “Moreover, GDP is projected to exceed $300 billion for the first time” The president highlighted that, over the past five years, growth in the real sector has become noticeably more balanced. Gross value added in the manufacturing industry increased by 25%, outpacing the growth of the extractive sector. Investments in fixed capital grew by 70% over the same period, and labor productivity rose by 40%. As a result, non-resource exports doubled, the number of exporters tripled, and the geography of supply expanded to 140 countries. According to Tokayev, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) now account for 40% of GDP and remain one of the most dynamic segments of the economy. “Over the past five years, the number of SMEs has increased by 1.5 times, and their output by 2.5 times. Today, 4.5 million people work in the business sector, almost half of the country’s employed population,” the president said. Tokayev also placed particular emphasis on the finalization of certain provisions in the new Tax Code, which is set to take effect in 2026. The president acknowledged that he had received a large number of appeals from entrepreneurs and instructed the government to carefully review the most problematic provisions. “It is important to understand that the sustainable development of entrepreneurship is based on the fulfillment of mutual obligations: the state creates the climate, and businesses pay taxes. The government must find a reasonable balance, there is no other option,” he stated. The president also called for continued development of the country’s digital business ecosystem to enhance transparency and reduce bureaucratic hurdles. Kazakhstan plans to significantly increase investment in its economy over the next five years, with the goal of nearly tripling its volume by 2029.

Economy

IMF Links High Inflation in Kazakhstan to Overheating Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has attributed rising inflation in Kazakhstan to signs of an overheated economy. In a mission conducted in early November, the IMF concluded that the country's GDP growth is exceeding its real potential, thereby fueling inflationary pressure. While economic activity remains robust, prices continue to climb. According to the IMF’s forecast, Kazakhstan’s real GDP is expected to grow by just over 6% in 2025, up from 5% in 2024. The main growth drivers are increased oil production and elevated domestic demand. The IMF estimates that inflation could reach nearly 13% by the end of the year. Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy remains expansionary. Transfers from the National Fund are a key contributor: in 2024, more than $12.1 billion was withdrawn from the fund, including $10.8 billion in direct transfers to the republican budget and $1.3 billion for the purchase of shares and bonds of Kazakhstani issuers. In 2025, the government plans to cut withdrawals from the National Fund nearly in half to $5.2 billion. However, the IMF warns that the non-oil budget deficit could still exceed 8% of GDP. Elevated demand, particularly from state-owned enterprises, has also contributed to a widening current account deficit, projected at 4% of GDP. Despite a slowdown in consumer lending and stabilization in oil production, domestic demand is expected to remain high in 2026. The IMF forecasts GDP growth at 4.5%. Over the medium term, the new Tax Code is expected to help bring inflation down to the 5% target, while GDP growth moderates to a sustainable level of around 3.5%. According to the National Statistics Bureau, year-on-year inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 12.9% in September 2025, easing slightly to 12.6% in October. Monthly inflation was reported at 0.5%. The IMF highlighted several risks that could exacerbate inflationary pressures. These include falling oil prices, slower economic growth among key trading partners, potential disruptions to crude exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), delays in infrastructure projects, and sluggish fiscal consolidation. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan continues to maintain one of the lowest levels of public debt in the world. At 24.8% of GDP, the country ranks 25th globally in terms of debt burden.

Economy

Uzbekistan Revises 2024 GDP to $121.4 Billion

Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024 has been revised upward to $121.4 billion, according to Behzod Hamroyev, Chair of the National Statistics Committee. The new figure was announced on November 17 during an international conference in Tashkent, as reported by the Statistika channel. Hamroyev explained that the revision reflects newly identified value added across key sectors of the economy. According to the final calculations, Uzbekistan’s nominal GDP for 2024 rose from 1,454.6 trillion soums to 1,535.4 trillion soums, an increase of 80.9 trillion soums, or 5.6%. In dollar terms, this marks an upward revision from the previously reported $115.0 billion to $121.4 billion. Following the recalculation, GDP per capita in 2024 reached 41.3 million soums. Hamroyev highlighted that full coverage of state budget execution led to the identification of 36.4 trillion soums in additional newly created value. Sector-specific revisions also contributed significantly: added value in industry rose by 12.7 trillion soums, agriculture by 5.6 trillion soums, construction by 10.3 trillion soums, and services by 16.3 trillion soums. Earlier this year, presidential spokesperson Sherzod Asadov reported that Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 6.5% in 2024, reaching $115 billion before the revision. He also noted that foreign investment increased by 1.6 times to $34.9 billion, with 242 large and medium-sized projects worth $10 billion launched. National exports reached a record $27 billion.

Banking

National Bank of Kyrgyzstan Reports Profit Surge in 2025

The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR), the country’s central bank, reported a net profit of 33.2 billion soms (about $380.7 million) for the first nine months of 2025, nearly 13 times higher than in the same period last year. The sharp increase was driven by gains from monetary gold transactions, the revaluation of foreign currency reserves, and overall asset appreciation. According to the central bank, gold now accounts for around $5 billion of its total assets, a 2.5-fold rise from 2024. Gold holdings currently represent about half of the NBKR’s total assets. Officials attributed the growth to the bank’s risk-diversification strategy and higher global gold prices. The NBKR also reported a rise in household investment in government securities, reflecting stronger public confidence in domestic financial instruments. While the overall asset structure remains stable, several notable shifts have occurred. The volume of nonmonetary gold and bullion has declined to $1.1 billion, reflecting strong demand from the jewelry industry and increased gold exports. Gold continues to be a key contributor to Kyrgyzstan’s export portfolio. The commercial banking sector is also expanding. The total loan portfolio reached $2 billion, up from $1.5 billion a year earlier. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP grew by 11.5% in January–July 2025, supported by strong investment in finance, manufacturing, and construction. Construction firms have been borrowing more from local banks, which are expanding lending to meet rising demand from businesses.

Economic Growth

World Bank: Central Asia to Lead Regional Growth in 2025 Despite Global Slowdown

Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is slowing but remains resilient amid global and regional challenges, according to the World Bank’s latest Europe and Central Asia Economic Update: Jobs and Prosperity, released on October 7, 2025. The report projects GDP growth in the region at 2.4% in real terms this year, down from 3.7% in 2024. The slowdown is primarily attributed to weaker growth in Russia. However, excluding Russia, which accounts for about 40% of the region’s total economic output, growth is expected to hold steady at approximately 3.3% in both 2025 and 2026. “Developing economies in the region need bold reforms to turn resilience into stronger growth in productivity, output, and jobs,” said Antonella Bassani, World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia. She stressed the importance of strengthening the private sector, improving education systems, and attracting more private investment to generate quality employment and address demographic changes. Central Asia remains the fastest-growing subregion for the third consecutive year, with growth expected to rise from 5.7% in 2024 to 5.9% in 2025. The World Bank attributes this momentum to increased oil production in Kazakhstan, higher remittance inflows, and rising public and private investment. Turkey and Poland are also highlighted for their strong performance, with forecast growth rates of 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively, supported by solid consumer demand and capital investment. Despite these positive signals, the World Bank warns that sluggish growth and weak reform momentum are exacerbating challenges in the labor market. While employment across the ECA region has expanded by 12% over the past 15 years, particularly in the services sector, many of the new jobs are low-skilled and offer limited income potential. Demographic shifts pose another challenge. The region’s working-age population is projected to shrink by 17 million in the coming decades, especially in Eastern and Central Europe and the Western Balkans. In contrast, Central Asia and Turkey are expected to see population growth, intensifying the need to generate sufficient employment opportunities. The report recommends that countries invest in infrastructure, education, and private-sector development to improve productivity. “Each country can tailor its approach to best use its assets, human talent, physical infrastructure, institutions, and natural resources,” said Ivailo Izvorski, World Bank Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia. In Central Asia, economic growth is expected to be driven by expansion in agrifood and livestock processing, transport and logistics along Eurasian trade corridors, renewable energy investment, and tourism development. The World Bank notes that these sectors, supported by the region’s cultural and natural heritage, could help position Central Asia as one of the world’s most dynamic emerging markets.