Central Asia Faces Billions in Climate Adaptation Costs, UNEP Warns

Central Asia ranks among the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world and will require tens of billions of dollars to adapt to the accelerating effects of global warming, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report identifies Central Asia as one of the fastest-warming areas globally. However, current adaptation funding remains drastically insufficient to meet the growing threat. A Region Under Threat Developing countries worldwide, including those in Central Asia, will need up to $310 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change. UNEP highlights the region’s specific challenges: rapidly melting glaciers, widespread soil degradation, worsening water scarcity, and increasing aridity, all of which endanger food security and energy sustainability. “If we don't start investing in adaptation now, we will face increasing costs every year,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are particularly exposed, with more than 70% of their populations employed in agriculture, which depends heavily on mountain rivers fed by glacial runoff. According to UNEP, glacier volumes in the region have shrunk by over 30% in the past decade. The changing flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers threatens not only agriculture but also the hydropower sectors in both countries. Diminished access to water could lead to socio-economic instability in vulnerable communities. Funding Gap Widens UNEP estimates that developing countries in Europe and Central Asia need roughly $51 billion annually for adaptation. Yet, only a fraction of that figure is currently being met. Tajikistan, for example, has outlined total climate financing needs of $8 billion by 2030 and $17 billion by 2050. In Uzbekistan, the cost of modernizing irrigation and water management systems alone is expected to approach $10 billion by 2030. UNEP has urged governments in the region to accelerate the updating of national adaptation plans, many of which have not been revised in over a decade, and to enhance cooperation in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Priority areas include investment in irrigation infrastructure, early warning systems, and flood control. From Glaciers to Farms In response to UNEP’s findings, international organizations have begun to fund targeted adaptation initiatives. The Green Climate Fund, for instance, has approved $250 million for the From Glaciers to Farms program, spearheaded by the Asian Development Bank. The project aims to strengthen agricultural and water resilience in glacier-dependent countries in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and parts of South Asia. It covers four major river basins: the Naryn and Panj in Central Asia, the Kura in the South Caucasus, and the Swat in Pakistan, benefiting approximately 13 million people. Funding will support the development of irrigation networks, reservoir construction, glacier monitoring, and early warning systems. The program also places a strong emphasis on empowering women entrepreneurs in agriculture and improving the financial sustainability of rural communities.

Glacier-Dependent Central Asian States to Benefit from ADB Climate Program

On October 29, the Green Climate Fund approved $250 million for Glaciers to Farms, a major adaptation initiative led by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to build climate-resilient water and agricultural systems in glacier-dependent regions of Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Pakistan. The funding, provided mostly as grants, will complement a broader $3.25 billion investment by ADB over the next decade. The program spans nine countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. These states rely heavily on glacier- and snow-fed rivers for agriculture, drinking water, and electricity. Accelerated glacial melt poses a direct threat to ecosystems and rural livelihoods, particularly in areas where one in four jobs depends on agriculture. By improving irrigation efficiency, expanding water storage, and investing in watershed management, the program seeks to reduce the growing frequency of droughts and floods linked to glacial melt. Glaciers to Farms will focus on four major glacier-fed river basins: the Naryn and Pyanj in Central Asia, the Kura in the South Caucasus, and the Swat in Pakistan. These basins cover about 27 million hectares and are home to an estimated 13 million people. The program will support glacier and climate assessments, upgrade monitoring networks, and introduce early warning systems to help communities prepare for glacial lake outburst floods and prolonged droughts. Beyond infrastructure, Glaciers to Farms will strengthen the capacity of local banks to finance agricultural enterprises, particularly those led by women, as part of its inclusive development approach. Climate-induced glacial retreat is a pressing concern for Central Asia, where glaciers supply up to 70 percent of river flows. The region contains more than 4,500 glacial lakes, many formed as a result of retreating ice. These lakes increase the risk of natural disasters such as lake outburst floods, avalanches, and landslides, threatening vulnerable mountain communities. Recognizing the urgency, the United Nations General Assembly has declared 2025 the International Year of Glacier Preservation. Tajikistan hosted the International Conference on Glaciers’ Preservation in Dushanbe in May, highlighting the region’s central role in global climate adaptation efforts.