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Climate Change

Central Asia Faces Billions in Climate Adaptation Costs, UNEP Warns

Central Asia ranks among the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world and will require tens of billions of dollars to adapt to the accelerating effects of global warming, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report identifies Central Asia as one of the fastest-warming areas globally. However, current adaptation funding remains drastically insufficient to meet the growing threat. A Region Under Threat Developing countries worldwide, including those in Central Asia, will need up to $310 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change. UNEP highlights the region’s specific challenges: rapidly melting glaciers, widespread soil degradation, worsening water scarcity, and increasing aridity, all of which endanger food security and energy sustainability. “If we don't start investing in adaptation now, we will face increasing costs every year,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are particularly exposed, with more than 70% of their populations employed in agriculture, which depends heavily on mountain rivers fed by glacial runoff. According to UNEP, glacier volumes in the region have shrunk by over 30% in the past decade. The changing flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers threatens not only agriculture but also the hydropower sectors in both countries. Diminished access to water could lead to socio-economic instability in vulnerable communities. Funding Gap Widens UNEP estimates that developing countries in Europe and Central Asia need roughly $51 billion annually for adaptation. Yet, only a fraction of that figure is currently being met. Tajikistan, for example, has outlined total climate financing needs of $8 billion by 2030 and $17 billion by 2050. In Uzbekistan, the cost of modernizing irrigation and water management systems alone is expected to approach $10 billion by 2030. UNEP has urged governments in the region to accelerate the updating of national adaptation plans, many of which have not been revised in over a decade, and to enhance cooperation in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Priority areas include investment in irrigation infrastructure, early warning systems, and flood control. From Glaciers to Farms In response to UNEP’s findings, international organizations have begun to fund targeted adaptation initiatives. The Green Climate Fund, for instance, has approved $250 million for the From Glaciers to Farms program, spearheaded by the Asian Development Bank. The project aims to strengthen agricultural and water resilience in glacier-dependent countries in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and parts of South Asia. It covers four major river basins: the Naryn and Panj in Central Asia, the Kura in the South Caucasus, and the Swat in Pakistan, benefiting approximately 13 million people. Funding will support the development of irrigation networks, reservoir construction, glacier monitoring, and early warning systems. The program also places a strong emphasis on empowering women entrepreneurs in agriculture and improving the financial sustainability of rural communities.

Climate Change

Pamir Loses Its “Ice Shield”: Scientists Confirm End of Glacier Stability Anomaly

For years, the Pamir-Karakoram anomaly stood as a rare outlier in global climate trends: a region where glaciers remained relatively stable despite accelerating global warming. Now, new research from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA) confirms that even these “last strongholds” have begun to lose mass at an alarming rate. Snow Deficit and Rising Heat Data collected from a climate monitoring station on the Kyzylsu glacier in the northwestern Pamirs, active from 1999 to 2023, reveals a sharp shift. According to an international research team led by Francesca Pelliccotti, the tipping point came in 2018, when a significant decline in snow cover and precipitation irreversibly altered the glaciers’ mass balance. Once past this "point of no return," glaciers began rapidly depleting their own reserves to compensate for the lack of new snowfall, a process accelerating their melt. Since 2018, the region has experienced a persistent snow deficit. Snow depth has fallen by approximately 40 cm, and annual precipitation has declined by 328 mm, about one-third of the historical average. Seasonal snow melts earlier, is less stable in spring, and is no longer sufficient to replenish glacier mass. July 2022 was the hottest month on record, and during this period, the Kyzylsu glacier recorded unprecedented mass loss, melting at a rate eight times faster than the 1999-2018 average. Scientists identify increasingly hot summers and a lack of precipitation as the primary causes. Even the intensified ice melt has not made up for reduced snowfall: water inflow into rivers dropped by roughly 189 mm in water equivalent. The contribution of glacial runoff to total river flow rose from 19% to 31%, but this increase was still insufficient to offset the overall decline in water volume. The situation is most severe at altitudes above 4,000 meters, where solid precipitation has declined sharply. Snow from avalanches, which previously helped sustain the glaciers, has dropped nearly threefold from 0.21 to 0.08 m per year. Implications for Central Asia Experts warn that this is not a localized issue. The Pamir and Karakoram glaciers feed the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, lifelines for millions across Central Asia. Diminishing glacial mass threatens freshwater availability, agriculture, hydropower generation, and overall socio-economic stability. “Due to the lack of accurate forecasts, we cannot yet say definitively whether the Pamir glaciers have passed the point of no return. However, since 2018, the processes have changed dramatically, and the reduction in precipitation has had a critical impact on their stability,” said ISTA researcher Achille Joubert. Data Gaps and New Monitoring Efforts Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, glacier monitoring in the region was largely suspended for nearly two decades. Systematic observations resumed only in 2021, when international researchers reinstalled instruments on the Kyzylsu glacier, one of the Vakhsh River’s primary sources. These new measurements confirmed a drastic drop in precipitation and snow thickness starting in 2018, with consistently unfavorable conditions persisting since. Compared to the late 1990s, spring and summer snow now melts much faster, and the "cold reserves"...

Climate Change

Experts Warn of Escalating Climate Risks for Central Asia

As global temperatures rise, Central Asia is emerging as one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. This warning comes from three recent reports by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which predict intensified warming, more frequent droughts, and rapid glacier retreat in the region. Without urgent adaptation and coordinated policy responses, the region faces growing risks to its water resources, agriculture, and energy systems. Beyond the Climate Norm According to the WMO’s Climate Outlook for 2025-2029, Central Asia is projected to experience sustained warming and greater variability in precipitation. Every year in the 2025-2029 period is expected to be hotter than the 1991-2020 average. Particularly troubling is the growing likelihood that global temperatures may temporarily exceed +1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the near term. One contributing factor is the heightened intensity of the South Asian monsoon, which is 82% more likely to be stronger than normal. While this could increase rainfall, the unpredictability raises concerns, periods of heavy rain could be followed by prolonged droughts, severely impacting regional agriculture. Another alarming development is the rapid retreat of glaciers in the Pamirs, which feed the region’s primary waterways, including the Amu Darya and its major tributary, the Vakhsh. The loss of these glaciers threatens long-term water availability and necessitates a rethinking of regional water management strategies. The WMO forecasts that the 2025-2029 period could be the warmest on record, with global temperatures projected to rise by 1.2-1.9°C. Although the chance of exceeding +2°C during this period is currently low, about 1%, the probability is rising. Spring Floods, Summer Droughts A second WMO report, though focused on the Pacific region, reinforces global climate trends relevant to Central Asia. It confirms that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. For high-altitude countries like Tajikistan, the implications are already evident. Snow is melting earlier, shortening the runoff season. Water that once lasted through summer now disappears within weeks in the spring, heightening the risks of spring flooding followed by summer droughts. The region lacks sufficient reservoir infrastructure to capture and store water during periods of excess. The report also highlights the looming disappearance of Indonesia’s glaciers by 2026, a fate that may soon await Central Asia’s glaciers. The consequences are serious, particularly for countries like Tajikistan, where over 90% of electricity is generated by hydropower. Climate anomalies across the region are increasing, including dust storms, intense rainfall, extreme heat, and landslides. The WMO stresses the urgent need for adaptation measures such as modernized infrastructure and improved climate monitoring and water management systems. The Need for a Regional Strategy The third WMO report emphasizes Central Asia’s unique vulnerability to droughts, which often cross national borders. This underscores the need for a coordinated regional approach, especially in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins. The report advocates for transboundary mechanisms for monitoring, data sharing, and joint response strategies. While Central Asia is part of the Global Network of Climate-Resilient River Basins, progress...

Climate Change

Climate Crisis in Central Asia: Kyrgyz Geologist Spells Out Threat of Disappearing Glaciers

Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov has warned at the COP29 climate summit in Baku that Kyrgyzstan’s glaciers have shrunk by 16% over the past 70 years, a trend that could accelerate if immediate action is not taken. Glaciers are a crucial source of drinking water for Kyrgyzstan and the broader Central Asian region. Japarov emphasized that the continued reduction in glacier size will lead to water scarcity and bring severe social, economic, and environmental consequences. “Our region is among the most vulnerable to global warming. By 2100, we may lose more than half of all glaciers,” he said, stressing the need for regional cooperation on green projects to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Kyrgyz glaciologists at the Institute of Geology have been monitoring the region’s glaciers since the early 1940s. Senior researcher Ilya Mezgin explained the alarming rate of glacier loss. “If you look at maps from 1943, two-kilometer glaciers were visible on the Chatkal Ridge in western Kyrgyzstan. Today, they’ve disappeared entirely from satellite images,” Mezgin told The Times of Central Asia. The melting has worsened over time. In 1985, Kyrgyzstan had 8,200 glaciers. That number has since dropped to just 6,500. Glaciers at lower altitudes are melting the fastest, while larger glaciers are expected to last until 2100. Mezgin noted that western glaciers in the Talas region are particularly at risk of disappearing. The mountains of the Tian Shan are composed in the main of crystalline and sedimentary rocks of the Paleozoic Era (i.e., about 540–250 million years ago). growth of the Tian Shan continued until 250 million years ago, when a large continental plate, known as Tarim, collided with Asia. The State Agency for Geology of Kyrgyzstan has suggested that glaciers can both retreat and regrow over time. However, the current trend is one of significant retreat.

Environment

United States Supports Uzbekistan’s Methane Reduction Efforts

The U.S. Embassy in Uzbekistan reports that a joint project between GasGreen Asia LLC, a subsidiary of Maryland-based Climate Compass, and Uzbekistan’s national gas distribution company, Hududgazta’minot JSC, has been engaged in detecting and repairing natural gas leaks within the country’s national gas distribution system. This project contributes to the country’s green economy transition and commitments under the Global Methane Pledge. Climate Compass, LLC is a world leader in providing logistical and technical services for greenhouse gas emissions reduction projects. A Korean carbon finance company, Ecoeye Co., Ltd., is the principal investor of the project, which began in March 2023. Since the project’s inception, over 50,000 individual methane leaks have been identified, measured, and repaired, reducing over seven million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per year. The project has created more than 200 local jobs, including engineers, data specialists, and project managers, who received intensive training from American technical experts. The repairs have generated tens of millions of dollars in savings for Hududgazta’minot by preventing gas losses and contributing to significant environmental benefits. At the September 24 event highlighting the project’s significant achievements, U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan Jonathan Henick said: “The United States welcomes Uzbekistan’s commitment to a broad-based transition to a green economy. This project supports Uzbekistan’s efforts to attract foreign direct investment while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.” According to Henick, the United States strongly supported Uzbekistan’s decision to join the Global Methane Pledge in 2022, an initiative to reduce methane emissions worldwide. Methane reduction is critical to Uzbekistan’s efforts to meet its nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. According to the United Nations Environment Program, methane emissions have accounted for approximately 30 percent of global warming and are an increasingly growing challenge. According to the “Methane in Central Asia: Emissions, Trends, Actions” report, Uzbekistan’s annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remained largely stable and declined slightly over the past 15 years, ranging between 180 and 200 million tons of CO2-equivalent or 5 tons per person. The report says the country’s energy sector is responsible for 75–80 percent of GHG emissions, including 50 percent from fuel combustion and 25–30 percent from methane leaks in the coal, oil, and gas sectors, the equivalent of 50 million tons of CO2. Uzbekistan has successfully decoupled GHG emissions from economic growth and intends to reduce the specific GHG emissions per GDP by 35 percent by 2030 compared to the 2010 level.