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Experts Warn of Escalating Climate Risks for Central Asia

As global temperatures rise, Central Asia is emerging as one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. This warning comes from three recent reports by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which predict intensified warming, more frequent droughts, and rapid glacier retreat in the region. Without urgent adaptation and coordinated policy responses, the region faces growing risks to its water resources, agriculture, and energy systems. Beyond the Climate Norm According to the WMO’s Climate Outlook for 2025-2029, Central Asia is projected to experience sustained warming and greater variability in precipitation. Every year in the 2025-2029 period is expected to be hotter than the 1991-2020 average. Particularly troubling is the growing likelihood that global temperatures may temporarily exceed +1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the near term. One contributing factor is the heightened intensity of the South Asian monsoon, which is 82% more likely to be stronger than normal. While this could increase rainfall, the unpredictability raises concerns, periods of heavy rain could be followed by prolonged droughts, severely impacting regional agriculture. Another alarming development is the rapid retreat of glaciers in the Pamirs, which feed the region’s primary waterways, including the Amu Darya and its major tributary, the Vakhsh. The loss of these glaciers threatens long-term water availability and necessitates a rethinking of regional water management strategies. The WMO forecasts that the 2025-2029 period could be the warmest on record, with global temperatures projected to rise by 1.2-1.9°C. Although the chance of exceeding +2°C during this period is currently low, about 1%, the probability is rising. Spring Floods, Summer Droughts A second WMO report, though focused on the Pacific region, reinforces global climate trends relevant to Central Asia. It confirms that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. For high-altitude countries like Tajikistan, the implications are already evident. Snow is melting earlier, shortening the runoff season. Water that once lasted through summer now disappears within weeks in the spring, heightening the risks of spring flooding followed by summer droughts. The region lacks sufficient reservoir infrastructure to capture and store water during periods of excess. The report also highlights the looming disappearance of Indonesia’s glaciers by 2026, a fate that may soon await Central Asia’s glaciers. The consequences are serious, particularly for countries like Tajikistan, where over 90% of electricity is generated by hydropower. Climate anomalies across the region are increasing, including dust storms, intense rainfall, extreme heat, and landslides. The WMO stresses the urgent need for adaptation measures such as modernized infrastructure and improved climate monitoring and water management systems. The Need for a Regional Strategy The third WMO report emphasizes Central Asia’s unique vulnerability to droughts, which often cross national borders. This underscores the need for a coordinated regional approach, especially in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins. The report advocates for transboundary mechanisms for monitoring, data sharing, and joint response strategies. While Central Asia is part of the Global Network of Climate-Resilient River Basins, progress...

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Climate Crisis in Central Asia: Kyrgyz Geologist Spells Out Threat of Disappearing Glaciers

Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov has warned at the COP29 climate summit in Baku that Kyrgyzstan’s glaciers have shrunk by 16% over the past 70 years, a trend that could accelerate if immediate action is not taken. Glaciers are a crucial source of drinking water for Kyrgyzstan and the broader Central Asian region. Japarov emphasized that the continued reduction in glacier size will lead to water scarcity and bring severe social, economic, and environmental consequences. “Our region is among the most vulnerable to global warming. By 2100, we may lose more than half of all glaciers,” he said, stressing the need for regional cooperation on green projects to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Kyrgyz glaciologists at the Institute of Geology have been monitoring the region’s glaciers since the early 1940s. Senior researcher Ilya Mezgin explained the alarming rate of glacier loss. “If you look at maps from 1943, two-kilometer glaciers were visible on the Chatkal Ridge in western Kyrgyzstan. Today, they’ve disappeared entirely from satellite images,” Mezgin told The Times of Central Asia. The melting has worsened over time. In 1985, Kyrgyzstan had 8,200 glaciers. That number has since dropped to just 6,500. Glaciers at lower altitudes are melting the fastest, while larger glaciers are expected to last until 2100. Mezgin noted that western glaciers in the Talas region are particularly at risk of disappearing. The mountains of the Tian Shan are composed in the main of crystalline and sedimentary rocks of the Paleozoic Era (i.e., about 540–250 million years ago). growth of the Tian Shan continued until 250 million years ago, when a large continental plate, known as Tarim, collided with Asia. The State Agency for Geology of Kyrgyzstan has suggested that glaciers can both retreat and regrow over time. However, the current trend is one of significant retreat.

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United States Supports Uzbekistan’s Methane Reduction Efforts

The U.S. Embassy in Uzbekistan reports that a joint project between GasGreen Asia LLC, a subsidiary of Maryland-based Climate Compass, and Uzbekistan’s national gas distribution company, Hududgazta’minot JSC, has been engaged in detecting and repairing natural gas leaks within the country’s national gas distribution system. This project contributes to the country’s green economy transition and commitments under the Global Methane Pledge. Climate Compass, LLC is a world leader in providing logistical and technical services for greenhouse gas emissions reduction projects. A Korean carbon finance company, Ecoeye Co., Ltd., is the principal investor of the project, which began in March 2023. Since the project’s inception, over 50,000 individual methane leaks have been identified, measured, and repaired, reducing over seven million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per year. The project has created more than 200 local jobs, including engineers, data specialists, and project managers, who received intensive training from American technical experts. The repairs have generated tens of millions of dollars in savings for Hududgazta’minot by preventing gas losses and contributing to significant environmental benefits. At the September 24 event highlighting the project’s significant achievements, U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan Jonathan Henick said: “The United States welcomes Uzbekistan’s commitment to a broad-based transition to a green economy. This project supports Uzbekistan’s efforts to attract foreign direct investment while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.” According to Henick, the United States strongly supported Uzbekistan’s decision to join the Global Methane Pledge in 2022, an initiative to reduce methane emissions worldwide. Methane reduction is critical to Uzbekistan’s efforts to meet its nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. According to the United Nations Environment Program, methane emissions have accounted for approximately 30 percent of global warming and are an increasingly growing challenge. According to the “Methane in Central Asia: Emissions, Trends, Actions” report, Uzbekistan’s annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remained largely stable and declined slightly over the past 15 years, ranging between 180 and 200 million tons of CO2-equivalent or 5 tons per person. The report says the country’s energy sector is responsible for 75–80 percent of GHG emissions, including 50 percent from fuel combustion and 25–30 percent from methane leaks in the coal, oil, and gas sectors, the equivalent of 50 million tons of CO2. Uzbekistan has successfully decoupled GHG emissions from economic growth and intends to reduce the specific GHG emissions per GDP by 35 percent by 2030 compared to the 2010 level.