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Geopolitics

Political Analyst Karazhanov: Stability Is Central Asia’s Greatest Advantage

International events where Kazakhstan and Central Asia present their agenda and demonstrate the benefits of predictability bring significant advantages to the region. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh political analyst Zamir Karazhanov explains how the region is gradually changing its approach to addressing key challenges. According to Karazhanov, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries, particularly Uzbekistan, have recently begun positioning themselves on the international stage in a far more pragmatic and modern way. A prime example is the speech delivered on April 17 by Kazakhstan’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkey. Observers noted that Tokayev outlined the role Kazakhstan is seeking to play in the evolving geopolitical landscape. The key message was that global governance is becoming less effective through traditional institutions, while the role of so-called “middle powers” is increasing. These countries may not define the global order on their own, but they are capable of promoting peaceful solutions, engaging in dialogue, and offering predictability. In addition, on April 22, Astana hosted the first Regional Environmental Summit (RES), which brought together around 1,500 participants from Central Asia, the European Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Middle East. The forum aimed to develop practical solutions to environmental and climate challenges facing both the Eurasia region and the wider world. During the discussions, representatives of Central Asian countries presented a realistic assessment of environmental issues and proposed a number of solutions. Environmental Threats Karazhanov noted that Kazakhstan has long faced difficult environmental conditions. “In addition to urban pollution, we have zones of ecological disaster, such as the Aral Sea. The country [Kazakhstan] hosts numerous extractive industries, and it is landlocked, located deep within the continent. Any environmental catastrophe here would have far more severe consequences than in countries without such constraints. Climate change is intensifying, temperatures are rising, and Central Asia is already experiencing acute water shortages. Without timely measures, the situation could become critical,” he said. According to him, Kazakhstan has long been dealing with environmental migration and has proactively begun building the necessary legal and social frameworks. Conflicts over water resources have already occurred in Central Asia. Karazhanov emphasized the importance of including representatives of countries that regulate the region’s water systems in the Astana forum. “This creates an opportunity for dialogue. Take the example of the two rivers that feed the Aral Sea, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. At one point, Kyrgyzstan suspended its participation in the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea because it felt its interests were constrained. It is essential to create a platform where all five countries in the region are satisfied with water distribution,” he said. He also highlighted Afghanistan as an increasingly important factor that has not been fully accounted for. As the country rebuilds after decades of conflict, its agriculture and other sectors will expand, increasing demand for water from transboundary rivers. “That is why the summit should be viewed in the broader context of regional development and good neighborly...

Water

Water in Central Asia: Between Reality and Alarmism

The Regional Ecological Summit 2026 will take place in Astana on April 22-24. The event is intended to elevate Central Asia’s water and environmental agenda to the level of systemic solutions. Alongside preparations for the summit, however, an increasingly alarmist narrative is gaining traction among some experts. In this framing, water resources in Central Asia are presented as being in crisis, with predictions of shortages, threats to food security, and even potential conflict. Phrases such as “there is not enough water,” “the harvest is at risk,” and “the region is on the brink” are used with growing frequency. Such assessments are typically based on generalized and dramatized claims that fail to differentiate between countries or specific river basins. This creates the impression of a single, simultaneous crisis, whereas in reality the situation is far more complex. Yes, there is a problem, but it is not sudden or one-dimensional. Water scarcity in Central Asia is real. However, it must be interpreted accurately and objectively. According to expert estimates, up to 40% of water in the region is lost through deteriorating irrigation infrastructure, while more than 80% of water consumption is accounted for by agriculture. Current practice supports these figures. In southern Kazakhstan, seasonal water supply restrictions are regularly imposed. This year, for example, the government approved consumption limits for southern regions due to an expected shortage during the growing season. Uzbekistan has said, in joining the World Bank’s Water Forward initiative, that it aims to introduce water-saving technologies across its 4.1 million hectares of irrigated land and reduce irrigation losses by 25%. Equally important are developments in upstream countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. According to a study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the region exhibits a structural interdependence between water and energy. More than 80% of electricity in these countries is generated by hydropower, meaning water resources are used simultaneously for energy production and irrigation. This creates systemic interdependencies. At the same time, coordination of water releases and electricity generation remains suboptimal, and the absence of long-term regulatory mechanisms has already led to water shortages during certain summer periods. This is a key point: the issue is not so much an absolute lack of water, but the complexity of coordination between upstream and downstream countries, as well as between sectors within individual states. In other words, water shortages in Central Asia are often driven less by natural conditions than by how water is distributed and managed. Particular attention in alarmist narratives is given to Afghanistan and the Kushtepa Canal. Estimates commonly suggest that the Qosh Tepa Canal could eventually divert around 6-10 km³ of water per year from the Amu Darya, although projections vary and depend on how fully the canal is completed and operated. While the canal is not yet fully operational, regional officials already treat it as a serious medium-term risk, with the precise scale of future withdrawals still under discussion. Countries in the region, especially Uzbekistan, have been pursuing dialogue with Afghanistan over the canal and...

Kyrgyz Retailers Prepare for Gradual Phase-Out of Plastic

Pressure is increasing on businesses in Kyrgyzstan to reduce their use of plastic. However, judging by the government’s latest initiatives, the transition to new environmental standards is expected to be gradual and shaped by compromise. The Ministry of Natural Resources, Ecology, and Technical Supervision has announced the launch of the “Green Entrepreneur” platform, through which companies willing to phase out plastic can obtain official recognition. The initiative comes alongside preparations for large-scale restrictions on the use of plastic bags, scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027. Although a full ban has not yet been introduced, several major retailers have already begun reducing their use of plastic bags and bottles. Both domestic companies and international brands are participating in the process. According to the ministry, the government and the business community have agreed on a series of joint measures that are expected to reshape the packaging market in the coming years. First Deputy Minister of Natural Resources Zhenish Seydaliev described plastic pollution as a global challenge, stressing that Kyrgyzstan has the potential to take a leading role in addressing the issue at the regional level. “Only joint cooperation will lead to sustainable business development that incorporates environmental responsibility and high standards of corporate governance,” he said. One of the key instruments under discussion is the introduction of separate waste collection systems. Authorities are encouraging businesses to incentivize consumers to return plastic bottles and aluminum cans by installing reverse vending machines, automated devices that offer bonuses or refunds. Such machines are expected to appear in retail chains, markets, fuel stations, food courts, and educational institutions. At the same time, companies are being urged to switch to biodegradable packaging, a move that would require significant adjustments to logistics and operational processes. The ministry emphasizes that the reforms are not limited to banning specific products but are aimed at a broader transformation of consumption patterns. At the same time, the final regulatory framework remains under discussion. Earlier proposals from the Cabinet of Ministers suggested abandoning a complete ban on plastic products from 2027. Under a draft law currently undergoing public consultation, certain plastic products may continue to be permitted provided they comply with the Eurasian Economic Union’s technical regulation on packaging safety. This approach reflects an effort to balance environmental objectives with economic considerations. Some restrictions are already being implemented at the regional level. The Issyk-Kul region has introduced a ban on plastic bags, which is being treated as a pilot project for potential nationwide reforms. Nevertheless, significant structural challenges remain. Plastic is estimated to account for up to one quarter of all waste in Kyrgyzstan’s landfills. Domestic production meets only around 15% of demand, with the remainder imported primarily from China, Iran, and Kazakhstan.

“Acid clouds” from Iran? Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Weather Agencies Say There is No Threat to Central Asia

Social media has been flooded with claims that a toxic cloud could drift from Iran toward Central Asia following strikes on oil facilities. However, the meteorological services of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan say those fears are not supported by scientific data. In recent days, posts online have warned of so-called “acid clouds” allegedly forming over Iran after attacks on oil depots and other energy infrastructure. Some of these posts claimed the pollution could be carried by atmospheric currents toward Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and China. Others cited reports of “black rain” in Tehran and elevated concentrations of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and soot. Iranian authorities and international reporting have documented severe local air pollution risks in and around Tehran after the strikes. The Iranian Red Crescent Society warned residents that rainfall following the explosions could be acidic and hazardous to health. Experts said the pollution could irritate the skin, eyes, and lungs and contaminate soil and water near the affected areas. Kazhydromet, Kazakhstan’s national weather service, said reports that “acid clouds” from Iran could reach Central Asia are not confirmed by scientific data or observation results. The agency explained that acid precipitation typically forms near the source of emissions and that the concentration of pollutants decreases significantly over long distances due to natural atmospheric processes. Monitoring data, it said, show no signs of such pollution moving toward Kazakhstan or other Central Asian countries. Uzbekistan’s hydrometeorological service, Uzhydromet, expressed a similar position. It said information circulating on social media about “acid clouds” reaching Central Asian countries has no scientific basis. According to the agency, dangerous concentrations of acid precipitation thousands of kilometres from the source are practically impossible, and current observations show no threat to Uzbekistan or neighbouring states. Experts note that large fires at oil facilities can release substantial amounts of harmful pollutants into the atmosphere. However, such risks are primarily local or regional near the source. By the time emissions travel very long distances, atmospheric dispersion and deposition typically reduce concentrations sharply. As a result, the health concerns reported in Tehran do not support claims of a toxic cloud threatening Central Asia. Both Kazhydromet and Uzhydromet urged the public and media outlets to rely on official information and avoid spreading unverified reports.

Environmental Damage Assessed at Ritz-Carlton Tashkent Construction Site

More than a dozen valuable trees have been cut down at the construction site of the Ritz-Carlton Tashkent in central Tashkent, according to Rasul Kusherbayev, adviser to the chairman of Uzbekistan’s Ecology and Climate Change Committee. Kusherbayev stated that the trees were removed from an area adjacent to the National Park in Tashkent. According to preliminary information, the felling was carried out in violation of the existing moratorium on cutting valuable tree species. He added that authorities are still determining whether additional trees were cut at the site. The land plot was reportedly allocated to Azerbaijani investors for the project. Kusherbayev also said that representatives of the construction company opposed attempts to film the tree cutting at the location. The project is being implemented by PD Estates, a joint venture linked to Azerbaijan’s Pasha Holding. The company is constructing a five-star, 150-room hotel under the The Ritz-Carlton Hotel Company brand, with an estimated investment of $200 million. In connection with the case, official documentation has been completed, and environmental damage has been assessed at 351,230,000 Uzbek sum (approximately $29,000). According to Uzbekistan’s Unified State Register of Enterprises and Organizations, PD Estates was registered in November 2023. The company has an authorized capital of 251.3 billion Uzbek sum (approximately $20.6 million) and specializes in construction project development. Its founders are Pasha Development, which holds a 99% stake, and Pasha Holding, which owns the remaining 1%. The company is headed by Baris Battal. The Ritz-Carlton is a luxury hospitality brand and a subsidiary of Marriott International, headquartered in Maryland, United States. It operates more than 90 hotels worldwide. According to the publication Uzdiplomat, in August 2024 Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan agreed to implement seven joint projects worth a total of $520 million. Under that framework, Pasha Development planned to build a $200 million Ritz-Carlton hotel and premium residential complex in Tashkent’s Chilanzar district. On February 29, 2024, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a law strengthening penalties for illegal tree cutting. The amendments significantly increased fines for unlawful felling, introduced a mandatory requirement to plant new saplings in areas where trees have been removed, and extended financial liability to legal entities. Previously, only individuals and officials were subject to penalties. Under the new provisions, companies found guilty of illegally cutting valuable tree and shrub species face fines ranging from 100 to 300 times the base calculation amount, equivalent to approximately 34 million to 102 million Uzbek sum (about $2,800 to $8,400).

Rogun Hydropower Plant

Rogun Dam’s Cross-Border Environmental Impact Draws Scrutiny

An international environmental coalition has raised new concerns about the environmental assessment of Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant, warning that its potential cross-border and cumulative impacts on downstream countries are being underestimated. The group, Rivers without Boundaries, presented its latest report, Eyes Wide Shut: Ignoring the Transboundary and Cumulative Impacts of the Rogun Hydropower Plant, highlighting what it describes as serious shortcomings in the project’s environmental and social review. According to the report, the current assessment of Rogun’s transboundary effects does not fully comply with the environmental and social standards of the World Bank. Experts argue the analysis relies on outdated data from 2014 and uses static modeling scenarios that fail to reflect climate change trends and the current hydrological realities of the Amu Darya basin. Rivers without Boundaries contends that this approach prevents a realistic understanding of how the project could affect downstream water availability and ecosystems. The coalition also criticizes what it describes as a failure to account for key external factors, particularly the construction of Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa canal, which is expected to significantly alter regional water balances. Rather than applying a basin-wide and cumulative assessment, the developers have labeled Rogun’s impact as “neutral”, a claim environmental experts deem misleading. “The authors of the impact assessment preferred to act with their eyes wide shut, excluding the most sensitive and uncomfortable scenarios,” said Evgeny Simonov, international coordinator of Rivers without Boundaries. He added that portraying the world’s tallest dam as environmentally neutral contradicts the very premise of cumulative impact assessment. Without binding commitments on environmental water releases and artificial floods, Simonov warned, the project risks prolonging ecological degradation in downstream areas for decades. The report flags particular threats to biodiversity and wetlands in the Amu Darya delta, many of which are protected under the Ramsar Convention. It notes that the Rogun assessment lacks clear mechanisms to guarantee water flows to these critical habitats during dry periods. The coalition also points to significant gaps in public consultation processes, especially in downstream countries, raising questions about the legitimacy of conclusions drawn regarding the project’s social acceptability. Alexander Kolotov, the coalition’s Central Asia regional coordinator, said consultations were not conducted in affected areas of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. “The risks linked to seasonal water redistribution and the launch of the Qosh Tepa canal were effectively left out of the analysis,” he said, calling this a dangerous precedent for a project of regional significance. Rivers without Boundaries is calling for a full Strategic Environmental Assessment of the entire Amu Darya basin, along with the development of legally binding water management plans that include climate adaptation strategies and biodiversity protection measures. Without a fundamental revision of the current approach, the coalition warns, Rogun could become a long-term source of environmental and social tension in Central Asia. At the heart of the concern is the filling of the Rogun reservoir, which experts say could reduce water flows to the Amu Darya delta by 25% or more, accelerating desertification and threatening the livelihoods of up to 10...