IMF - The Times Of Central Asia

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public debt

Kazakhstan Among Countries with Lowest Debt Burden

Kazakhstan continues to maintain a low level of public debt, amounting to 24.8% of the country’s GDP, ranking it 25th globally. This figure is well below the global average and reflects a relatively low debt burden, according to an analysis by Finprom.kz based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data. By comparison, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have higher public debt levels, at 31.1% and 37.8% of GDP, respectively. Russia (22%) and Tajikistan (23.1%) have slightly lower debt levels. Turkmenistan ranks among the top five countries globally with the lowest public debt, at just 3.9% of GDP. The IMF projects global public debt will rise to 94.7% of GDP in 2025, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year. Japan remains the country with the highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 229.6%. Other countries with high debt levels include Greece (146.7%), Bahrain (142.5%), Italy (136.8%), the Maldives (131.8%), the United States (125%), Senegal (122.9%), France (116.5%), and China (96.3%). Global public debt is expected to reach $111 trillion in 2025. The U.S. and China account for more than half of this total, with $38.3 trillion and $18.7 trillion in public debt, respectively. In absolute terms, Kazakhstan has the highest gross public debt among Central Asian countries, at $74.4 billion. It is followed by Uzbekistan ($42.8 billion), Kyrgyzstan ($7.6 billion), Tajikistan ($3.7 billion), and Turkmenistan ($2.8 billion).

Economy

Kazakhstan Tops Central Asia for GDP per Capita, Surpassing Russia and China

Kazakhstan has emerged as the regional leader in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, overtaking both Russia and China, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF data shows that in 2025 Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita reached $14,770, compared to $14,260 in Russia and $13,690 in China. Within Central Asia, Turkmenistan followed with $13,340, while Uzbekistan posted $3,510, Kyrgyzstan $2,750, and Tajikistan $1,430. Kazakhstan also leads among Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members, ahead of Georgia ($9,570), Armenia ($8,860), Moldova ($8,260), Belarus ($7,880), Azerbaijan ($7,600), and Ukraine ($6,260). Only the Baltic states recorded higher figures: Estonia ($32,760), Lithuania ($30,840), and Latvia ($24,370). Ireland remained Europe’s leader with $108,920 per capita. The IMF calculates GDP per capita at current prices, offering a snapshot of purchasing power and overall economic wellbeing. Its analysts attribute Kazakhstan’s strong performance to vast mineral resources, with energy and mineral exports continuing to drive growth. Recent years have also seen expansion in raw material processing and production of high value-added goods. The report cites ongoing business reforms, foreign investment inflows, and infrastructure upgrades as key factors enhancing competitiveness. Significant spending is going into transport, logistics, technology, education, healthcare, and social services, bolstering domestic demand and labor productivity. Kazakhstan’s strategic position on trade routes linking Europe and Asia, participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, and active engagement with Russia, China, the EU, and other partners are also seen as growth drivers. The IMF notes that macroeconomic stability is supported by low inflation, a steady tenge exchange rate, and a balanced budget. “The policies of the National Bank and the government are helping to maintain economic stability even amid global challenges,” the report states. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that, according to IMF forecasts, Central Asian economies are expected to grow faster than the global average in 2025.

Growth Forecasts

IMF Forecasts Slower Growth for Kyrgyzstan, While Authorities Project Higher Rates

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Kyrgyzstan's economic growth to slow to 6.8% in 2025, even after strong performance in the first half of the year. In its latest report, the IMF projects medium-term growth to stabilize at 5.2%. By contrast, Kyrgyz authorities remain bullish, forecasting GDP growth of 8.5-9% by year-end. According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan's GDP expanded by more than 12% between January and May 2025, with preliminary figures placing the economy’s value at 573 billion KGS (approximately $6.5 billion). Reflecting this momentum, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan recently revised its growth forecast upward from 8% to 9%. The central bank attributed this adjustment to accelerated investment activity, rising household incomes, and stronger domestic demand. Growth is being driven by key sectors such as manufacturing, trade, and construction, bolstered by proactive fiscal measures and robust business activity. Diverging Forecasts and Economic Narratives While acknowledging the resilience of Kyrgyzstan’s economy amid global volatility, the IMF maintains a more cautious outlook. Its report highlights a decline in inflation to single-digit levels and improvements in public debt management, both of which create fiscal space for critical investments in infrastructure, energy, and human capital. “In the medium term, growth is expected to approach its potential of 5.2% as re-export trade normalizes. However, the economic outlook remains sensitive to geopolitical risks. Strengthening fiscal buffers and implementing structural reforms remain priorities for the country,” the IMF noted in a statement. This divergence in outlook is not new. In 2023, then Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov famously wagered with World Bank Chief Economist Hugh Riddell that GDP growth would exceed 7%. Japarov ultimately won the bet, as the actual performance validated his projection, despite widespread skepticism. Experts Weigh In Economist Nurgul Akimova attributes the differing forecasts to contrasting methodologies. “International organizations use standardized models that consider macroeconomic indicators, institutional stability, and vulnerability to external shocks,” she explained. “Kyrgyz authorities, by contrast, often base their projections on optimistic assumptions about investment inflows, export expansion, and remittances.” Akimova also highlighted the political motivations behind domestic forecasts. “Official estimates serve to project confidence, both to the public and to investors. However, overly optimistic projections can obscure risks and complicate fiscal planning.” “In the short term, the government can often meet its targets by mobilizing domestic resources. But in the long run, IMF forecasts tend to be more accurate as they account for both internal and external vulnerabilities,” she concluded.

Economy

Central Asia Poised to Outpace Global Growth in 2025, IMF Projects (With One Exception)

The year 2025 is anticipated to bring moderate growth for the global economy, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.2%, reaching $115.3 trillion at current prices. While global growth is expected to remain stable, it is weaker than initially forecast. The IMF notes that the economic outlook for the United States has improved, but growth expectations for other advanced economies, particularly in Europe, have been downgraded. Emerging markets and developing economies continue to grapple with a range of challenges, including production disruptions, shipping delays, geopolitical conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events. These factors have tempered growth prospects in regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, emerging Asia is experiencing robust growth, fueled by strong demand for semiconductors and electronics, underpinned by substantial investments in artificial intelligence. Additionally, public investment in China and India is driving regional economic expansion. However, the IMF forecasts that global growth will average 3.1% annually over the next five years, a pace slower than pre-pandemic levels. Global Economic Highlights In 2025, the United States is expected to retain its position as the world’s largest economy, with a GDP of $30.3 trillion at current prices. China will follow with $19.5 trillion, while Germany is projected to rank third at $4.9 trillion. Japan and India will occupy fourth and fifth places, with GDPs of $4.4 trillion and $4.3 trillion, respectively. Central Asia Outlook In Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 5.7%, reaching $127.4 billion at current prices, according to the IMF. This growth rate positions Uzbekistan as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia, is expected to achieve 4.6% growth, with GDP reaching $306.6 billion. Kyrgyzstan’s GDP is forecast to grow by 5%, reaching $17.3 billion at current prices. Tajikistan’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5%, with GDP projected at $14.1 billion. Turkmenistan is forecast to experience slower growth, with its GDP increasing by 2.3% to reach $91.1 billion.

Trade

Uzbekistan Aims to Join WTO by 2026

Uzbekistan is intensifying efforts to finalize its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), aiming for completion by 2026. At the ninth meeting of the Working Group on Accession, held December 5-6, a delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjayev reaffirmed the country’s commitment to this timeline. WTO members expressed support for Uzbekistan’s high-level political engagement, and encouraged continued alignment of its trade regime with international standards. Khodjayev emphasized that WTO accession is not merely a technical procedure but a critical driver of internal reforms. “This goal demonstrates the inevitability of Uzbekistan's integration into the global trading system. In 2025, efforts will focus on completing negotiations and harmonizing legislation with WTO norms,” Khodjayev stated. The Uzbek delegation included Azizbek Urunov, the president's special representative on WTO issues, Deputy Economy Minister Ahadbek Khaidarov, and representatives from various agencies. Some officials joined the discussions virtually from Tashkent. Chief Negotiator Azizbek Urunov reported that Uzbekistan has concluded bilateral negotiations with nine additional WTO members, bringing the total to 22. This milestone underscores significant progress in the accession process. WTO Deputy Director General Xiangchen Zhang commended Uzbekistan for its ambitious reforms, including Presidential Decree DP-85, which aims to align national legislation with WTO norms. These efforts align with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s strategy to accelerate economic modernization. Chairman of the Working Group, Ambassador Yoon Seong-Dok of South Korea, also noted substantial progress at both bilateral and multilateral levels. He highlighted Uzbekistan’s productive cooperation with international organizations such as the IMF, World Bank, and WTO. The Working Group reviewed Uzbekistan’s draft report outlining commitments as a prospective WTO member and examined recent legislative changes. Since May 2024, Uzbekistan has enacted 192 legal acts to comply with WTO standards. Ambassador Yoon stressed the importance of sustained efforts in 2025 to meet the next milestones. “The coming seven to eight months will be crucial to achieve the goal of completing the process by 2026,” he said. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Uzbekistan has secured China's agreement for its WTO accession. Joining the organization is a cornerstone of Uzbekistan’s broader economic reforms aimed at integrating the nation into the global trading system.

Healthcare

IDB to Fund $156.3 Million for Cancer Hospitals in Turkmenistan

Turkmenportal reported that a Turkmenistan delegation visited Washington DC from October 22 to 26 to participate in the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, along with related events. During the visit, representatives of Turkmenistan's financial and banking sector engaged in bilateral discussions with foreign partners. According to the Saudi Press Agency, the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) has approved $156.3 million in funding to build three specialized cancer treatment hospitals in Turkmenistan. These modern facilities will be located in Balkanabad, Turkmenabad, and Mari, with a combined capacity to serve over 11,750 patients. The agreement was signed in a meeting between IDB President Muhammad Al Jasser and Rahimberdi Jepbarov, Chairman of the State Bank for Foreign Economic Affairs of Turkmenistan. Meanwhile, on October 24, Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche, in partnership with Nobel Almaty Pharmaceutical Factory, launched the production of innovative drugs in Almaty, Kazakhstan. This initiative is part of an agreement between Roche, Kazakhstan’s SK-Pharmacy, Nobel, and the Kazakh Research Institute of Oncology and Radiology, supported by Kazakh Invest. Under this collaboration, Roche will locally produce three biotechnological drugs to treat HER2-positive breast cancer, a highly aggressive form affecting up to 20% of breast cancer patients in Kazakhstan.