Trade - The Times Of Central Asia

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Energy Exports

Russia to Boost Energy Exports to Uzbekistan as Trade Surpasses $13 Billion

Russia plans to increase deliveries of oil and natural gas to Uzbekistan, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at the sixth session of the intergovernmental commission at the level of the two countries’ prime ministers in Moscow. “Agreements have been reached to continue supplies of Russian oil and natural gas and to increase their volumes,” Mishustin said, noting that energy remains a key area of cooperation between Moscow and Tashkent. He added that Russian specialists are also involved in drilling new wells and modernizing refining and gas transportation infrastructure in Uzbekistan. The meeting brought together Mishustin and Uzbekistan’s Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov to review progress on agreements set by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Both sides emphasized the continued expansion of what they described as a comprehensive strategic partnership. Mishustin said bilateral trade increased by nearly 12.5% last year, approaching one trillion rubles, and is expected to grow further by 2030. Aripov, citing Uzbek data, said trade turnover exceeded $13 billion in 2025 and rose by a further 30% in the first two months of this year. Energy cooperation featured prominently in the discussions. Construction of a Russian-designed nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan’s Jizzakh region is underway, with concrete work beginning in March. Aripov described the project as opening “a new page” in bilateral relations, adding that Uzbekistan would become “the first country where both small and large nuclear power plants will be located on one site.” Beyond energy, the two sides highlighted expanding investment and industrial cooperation. Around 150 joint projects worth more than four trillion rubles are currently being implemented, while Uzbekistan hosts over 3,200 enterprises with Russian capital. Projects span sectors including mining, chemicals, textiles, pharmaceuticals, logistics, and digital technologies. Previous reporting indicates that Russia remains one of Uzbekistan’s largest trading partners, with both governments aiming to increase bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2030. Transport links are also expanding, with 367 weekly flights now operating between the two countries, according to Aripov.

Economy

IMF Warns of Risks for Rapidly Growing Kyrgyz Economy

Kyrgyzstan continues to record strong economic growth and rising per capita income. At the same time, elevated inflation above the National Bank’s 5%-7% target range, rapid credit expansion, strong wage growth, and high liquidity point to signs of economic overheating, requiring timely macroeconomic policy adjustments. These are the key points of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) statement following consultations with Kyrgyz authorities in Bishkek between March 18 and April 1. The IMF noted that after recording fiscal surpluses between 2023 and 2025, the overall fiscal balance is projected to shift into deficit in 2026, reflecting higher public-sector wages and increased capital spending. The mission also emphasized that monetary policy should remain focused on bringing inflation back within the National Bank’s target range. Strengthening the central bank’s independence and governance remains critical to safeguarding price stability. Repeated transfers of National Bank profits to the state budget, while capital remains below statutory thresholds, risk undermining institutional credibility and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The IMF urged the authorities to uphold the provisions of the constitutional law governing the National Bank and to suspend regular profit transfers until capital is adequately restored. According to the IMF, Kyrgyzstan’s banking sector is stable, well capitalized, and liquid. However, nonperforming loans remain elevated, and rapid credit growth could increase vulnerabilities if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. The mission stressed that structural reforms remain essential to support sustainable and inclusive growth. These should focus on strengthening governance, reducing the state’s role in the economy, and fostering private-sector-led development. Key priorities include reforming state-owned enterprises, improving the business environment and competition, strengthening the rule of law and anti-corruption efforts, and addressing informality and labor market rigidities. According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 11.1% in 2025, while inflation reached 9.4%. The government aims to sustain economic growth under the National Development Program through 2030, targeting average annual GDP growth of 8%, total GDP of at least $30 billion, and GDP per capita of $4,500. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also forecasts continued strong growth, projecting GDP expansion of 8.9% in 2026 and 8.4% in 2027, following 11.1% growth in 2025. Growth is expected to moderate as construction and trade normalize, although domestic demand will remain the main driver, supported by resilient remittance inflows and sustained investment under the National Development Program. ADB projects inflation to rise to 10.3% in 2026 before easing to 8.5% in 2027, driven by strong domestic demand and planned increases in electricity and heating tariffs. Concerns about overheating are not new. A July 2025 meeting at the Kyrgyz Ministry of Economy and Commerce highlighted structural imbalances, including a widening gap between income growth and labor productivity, rising inflation, labor shortages, increased public spending, and rapid growth in consumer lending. Economist Azamat Akeneev told 24.kg that sustainable growth is not possible without improvements in labor productivity and exports. “If the economy grows through consumption and government spending rather than competitiveness and expansion into foreign markets, sooner or later an adjustment phase...

Foreign Affairs

Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Visits Caucasus to Expand Trade and Transit Ties

Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister, Yermek Kosherbayev, conducted a diplomatic tour of the South Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, as part of Astana’s efforts to strengthen trade and economic ties, expand investment cooperation, and develop key transit routes between Central Asia and Europe. Armenia: Trade, Investment, and Digitalization In Yerevan, Kosherbayev held meetings with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, President Vahagn Khachaturyan, and Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. He conveyed greetings from Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and highlighted the high level of bilateral cooperation. “Thanks to the efforts of the leaders, bilateral relations between Kazakhstan and Armenia have reached a qualitatively new level,” Kosherbayev said. He noted that the evolving geopolitical situation creates new opportunities for both economies. Kazakhstan reaffirmed its interest in long-term supplies of agricultural products, including grain and meat, as well as in expanding transport links and launching direct flights. The two sides discussed the implementation of the Roadmap for Trade and Economic Cooperation for 2026-2030. More than 100 enterprises with Kazakh capital are registered in Armenia, while over 400 Armenian companies operate in Kazakhstan, indicating growing business activity. Artificial intelligence, digitalization, nuclear energy, pharmaceuticals, higher education, and healthcare were identified as priority areas for cooperation. Particular attention was given to the establishment of a branch of the TUMO educational center in Astana. Azerbaijan: Energy and Transport Corridors In Azerbaijan, Kosherbayev met with President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. Discussions focused on strengthening allied relations and expanding cooperation in energy, industry, and logistics. “Kazakh-Azerbaijani relations are characterized by steady and progressive development and possess significant potential. We express our firm commitment to further strengthening our alliance with brotherly Azerbaijan,” the minister said. Bilateral trade has increased sharply over the past five years, reaching $470.7 million in 2025. The two sides agreed to work toward raising this figure to $1 billion. Particular attention was paid to the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, a key element in diversifying Kazakhstan’s export routes. For Astana, Azerbaijan is the pivotal Caspian link in the westward corridor connecting Kazakhstan to the South Caucasus and on to European markets. The parties also discussed projects to lay a fiber-optic communication line and a subsea power cable across the Caspian Sea to strengthen regional energy and digital connectivity. These projects fit a broader strategy to connect Central Asian energy and data infrastructure more closely with Azerbaijan and, through it, with Europe. In addition, both sides highlighted opportunities to expand the transit of Kazakh energy resources through Azerbaijani territory, alongside growing cultural, humanitarian, and educational exchanges. Georgia: Investment and a Logistics Hub The final stop was Georgia, where the minister met with President Mikheil Kavelashvili and Foreign Minister Maka Bochorishvili. “Kazakhstan views Georgia as a reliable political and economic partner in the South Caucasus,” Kosherbayev said. The officials noted positive momentum in economic cooperation. Kazakh investment in Georgia has exceeded $600 million, with companies active in logistics, energy, and finance. Georgia’s importance to Kazakhstan lies not only in bilateral trade and investment, but in its role as...

EU-Turkmenistan Relations

Turkmenistan Opens the Door a Little Wider to Europe

Turkmenistan has historically been a difficult partner to deal with. The Turkmen government’s isolationist policies run counter to deep cooperation with any foreign party, but the Turkmen authorities seem to now perceive that these policies are costing them opportunities and revenue. In one of the latest shifts in foreign policy, Turkmenistan appears to be warming up relations with the European Union, though currently, the EU has its own reasons to boost interaction with Turkmenistan. Let’s Meet For decades, the EU and many other countries and international organizations have gone through frustrating efforts to establish a reliable relationship with Turkmenistan. Ashgabat’s form of governance is based on a cult of personality, a supposedly infallible leader capable of protecting the country from the evils of the outside world. The UN recognition in December 1995 of Turkmenistan’s neutrality was used by its government to seal off the country. It would normally be easy for the rest of the world to ignore Turkmenistan. However, Turkmenistan possesses the planet’s fourth-largest proven natural gas reserves, and it is located on what is developing into a key global trade route. On March 20, the European Investment Bank’s (EIB) regional representative for Central Asia, Olivier Kueny, complimented Turkmenistan for its “ambitions in transport and… projects that reduce greenhouse gases.“ Kueny noted that, “with direct access to the Caspian Sea, [Turkmenistan] is a key node” of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor (TITR). He hinted the EIB could be interested in investing in Turkmenistan’s “rail, road, rolling stock and port infrastructure [that] could help reduce the cost and time needed to move goods between continents.“ On March 26, Charlotte Adriaen, the head of the EU division for Central Asia and Afghanistan, met in Ashgabat with Turkmenistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Myahri Byashimova, to discuss energy cooperation. The two also reviewed EU programs for sustainable energy, trade, and digital connectivity. On the same day, there was also a “New Horizons for Connectivity, Investment and Sustainable Growth” Turkmenistan-EU business forum in Ashgabat. Turkmenistan’s Minister of Finance and Economy, Mammetguly Astanagulov, addressed more than 200 delegates attending the forum, telling them his country is ready to expand trade, transport, and energy cooperation with the EU. Astanagulov noted EU-Turkmenistan trade increased from $1.1 billion in 2024 to $2.1 billion in 2025. EU Ambassador to Turkmenistan Beata Peksa also spoke at the forum. She noted Turkmenistan’s growing role in global transport corridors between Europe and Asia and said the EU is seeking to work more closely with Turkmenistan on improving investment conditions in the country. Peksa also mentioned helping Turkmenistan improve regulatory frameworks and investment in modern technologies to increase efficiency in moving cargo. On April 1, Adriaen met with representatives from Turkmenistan’s State Service of Maritime and River Transportation at the Turkmenbashi International Seaport on the Caspian coast to discuss the port’s role in the TITR and projects at the Balkan shipbuilding yard. And on April 7, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) co-sponsored an “Export Experience Exchange” conference in Ashgabat, the aim...

Trade

Afghanistan Aims to Increase Trade with Central Asia to $10 Billion

Afghanistan aims to increase trade with Central Asian countries to $10 billion over the next three to four years, Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said at a meeting in Kabul. According to Muttaqi, Afghanistan’s trade turnover with countries in the region reached approximately $2.7 billion in 2025, marking a significant increase compared to previous years. The statement was made during a consultative dialogue involving representatives from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, focused on regional cooperation, trade, and the development of transit routes. Muttaqi said Afghanistan intends to leverage its geoeconomic position to connect Central Asia with markets in South and West Asia. Among key projects, he highlighted the TAPI gas pipeline, which is currently under construction. Afghan authorities are seeking to expand economic ties despite ongoing international sanctions affecting the banking sector, which continue to constrain investment inflows. At the same time, Russia remains the only country to have officially recognized the Taliban government that came to power in 2021. Several countries, including China, India, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, maintain a diplomatic presence in Kabul. Landlocked Central Asian countries view southern routes through Afghanistan as an alternative to northern corridors via Russia, which have been complicated by sanctions. Afghanistan shares a border of more than 2,300 km with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and continues to face security challenges, including threats from extremist groups, drug trafficking, and irregular migration. However, Muttaqi said the situation along the borders remains generally stable. Earlier reports indicated that Kazakhstan is exploring the possibility of investing in rare earth metal mining in Afghanistan. The national company Tau-Ken Samruk is conducting laboratory analysis of samples collected in Afghanistan and Rwanda.

Railways

Istanbul Strait Rail Project to Boost Trade Along Trans-Caspian Transport Route

On March 31, the World Bank approved a $2 billion loan for the Istanbul North Rail Crossing Project (INRAIL), aimed at strengthening railway connectivity across the Istanbul Strait (Bosphorus) and reinforcing Türkiye’s role as a key logistics hub linking Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. With the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, Turkey serves as a key node in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. The route connects China and Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkey. Turkey's major rail corridors passing through Istanbul, including the Middle Corridor, the Iraq Development Road, and the Turkey-EU corridor, are essential for international trade but currently face a significant bottleneck at the Bosphorus. INRAIL will involve the construction of a 127-kilometer electrified, high-capacity railway line providing a new overland rail crossing of the strait. The project will utilize the rail-ready Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge and bypass central Istanbul, increasing both freight and passenger capacity while reducing logistics costs and improving reliability across national and intercontinental transport corridors, including the TITR. Once operational, rail freight capacity across the Bosphorus is expected to increase from approximately 3 million tons per year to as much as 50 million tons, significantly improving transit times, reliability, and predictability for freight operators. “By removing a critical rail bottleneck at the Istanbul Strait and enhancing the resilience and efficiency of rail infrastructure, Turkey is boosting its competitiveness and reinforcing its role as a logistics hub,” said Humberto Lopez, World Bank Country Director for Turkey. “INRAIL will also generate benefits for the wider region by connecting to international corridors such as the Middle Corridor and the Development Road, facilitating trade between Europe, Central Asia, and the Gulf.” The project aligns with Kazakhstan and Türkiye’s broader efforts to develop the Middle Corridor. In July 2025, Kazakhstan’s national railway operator, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), and TCDD Taşımacılık A.Ş. signed a cooperation agreement to enhance freight transportation along the TITR. The agreement aims to improve the route’s efficiency and competitiveness by launching regular rail services between Kazakhstan and Turkey, increasing freight volumes along the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, and expanding cargo flows between China and Europe. KTZ has also held discussions with Mersin International Port, part of PSA International, on expanding cooperation to strengthen the Middle Corridor and develop more efficient multimodal logistics links between Asia and Europe. KTZ Chairman Talgat Aldybergenov reaffirmed both sides’ commitment to ensuring stable freight volumes and highlighted Mersin’s role as a strategic transshipment hub for the corridor. To further strengthen the logistics chain, Kazakhstan has proposed leveraging the potential of KPMC, a joint venture between KTZ and PSA International, which is already involved in developing multimodal services along the Xi’an-Istanbul route.