Inflation - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 59

Parliamentary Reform

Kazakhstan Debates Parliamentary Reform as Inflation Pressures Living Standards

The Kazakh government is actively developing the framework for a future unicameral parliament, working to define its status, powers, and functions. Currently, Kazakhstan’s legislative branch consists of two chambers: the Senate and the Mazhilis. The proposed transition to a unicameral system has been positioned by authorities as a step toward democratization. However, many citizens remain unclear about the details and implications of the reform, particularly as inflation and declining living standards dominate public concern. Uncertain Details of Reform In September 2025, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed holding a nationwide referendum on transitioning to a unicameral parliament in 2027. While some analysts have speculated about a faster timeline, no official acceleration beyond 2027 has been announced. "The establishment of a parliamentary republic is not under consideration. The foundational model of a 'Strong President, Influential Parliament, Accountable Government' remains unchanged," Tokayev previously stated. According to political analyst Gaziz Abishev, pivotal developments are expected on January 20, when the National Kurultai (Assembly) convenes. He believes this meeting will outline the contours of constitutional reform and potentially signal a date for the referendum. “If the decree on holding a referendum is signed during the Kurultai, the vote could be held on March 22 [2026],” Abishev stated. Under the current system, the Senate represents regions and appointive quotas, reviewing legislation passed by the Mazhilis and serving as a constitutional buffer. Any move to unicameralism would require redefining how regional interests are represented and how legislative oversight is maintained without an upper chamber. The National Kurultai serves as a platform for dialogue between the government and society, addressing national identity, economic development, social justice, and improving the quality of life. Historically, the Kurultai was a gathering of Turkic and Mongol tribes. Over 500 Public Proposals Submitted Public discussion around the proposed unicameral parliament has been active. Since the launch of a dedicated “Parliamentary Reform” section on the state portals e-Otinish and Egov, over 500 proposals have been submitted by citizens, experts, and public organizations. Despite this engagement, tangible benefits for ordinary citizens remain vague, aside from a potential reduction in government spending. Globally, more than half of national parliaments operate as unicameral systems. According to IPU Parline, 107 out of 188 legislatures follow this model, primarily in unitary states with smaller populations. Unicameral systems are often praised for faster legislative processes, lower administrative costs, and increased transparency. Kazakhstan previously had a unicameral legislature under the 1993 Constitution. Following the invalidation of the 1994 elections, the Supreme Council was dissolved. In 1995, the country transitioned to its current bicameral system. The Senate, as the upper house, plays a stabilizing and arbitration role. Analysts caution that without a second chamber, legislative processes may be vulnerable to hasty or populist decisions. Potential for Early Elections Abishev suggests that a referendum in March 2026 could prompt an early electoral cycle. "Under the current schedule, the next Mazhilis elections are set for January 2028. However, they could be moved up to summer 2026 if Parliament adopts a constitutional amendment package in April...

Economic Growth

ACRA Raises Kazakhstan Economic Growth Forecast

The Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) has released its updated forecast for Kazakhstan’s economy for 2026-2028, projecting annual growth of 5.3-5.9%. These figures exceed the government’s recent targets. According to the published report, the next three years will mark a period of accelerated expansion, driven by industry and construction, alongside strengthening value chains in services and agribusiness. The government's earlier forecast projected GDP growth of 5.4% in 2026, followed by stabilization at 5.3%. While ACRA offers a more optimistic outlook, it notes that achieving the targeted 6% growth will require a sharp increase in investment activity and a boost in foreign exchange earnings from exports. The agency also warns that accelerating growth may carry the risk of economic overheating and a new wave of inflation. Investment remains the weak link in Kazakhstan’s growth model. From 2021 to 2025, investment accounted for only 15% of GDP, significantly lower than in comparable economies and previous periods of rapid expansion. For example, during 2010-2014, investment levels held at 18%, and in earlier years, they reached as high as 20-22%. Without restoring higher investment levels, sustaining growth above 5.5% could prove difficult. Inflation risks also remain elevated. Contributing factors include household inflation expectations, imported inflation from neighboring countries, accelerated lending, and rising global food prices. Nevertheless, ACRA forecasts inflation to decline from 11.8% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, 6.2% in 2027, and 5.1% in 2028. The tenge is expected to gradually weaken to 555 per $ in 2026, 574 in 2027, and 594 in 2028. ACRA highlights three major risks over the next three years. The first is export and logistics vulnerabilities. Kazakhstan’s primary oil export route continues to run through Novorossiysk, and any disruption along this corridor would quickly impact the current account and put downward pressure on the tenge. The second risk concerns fiscal discipline. Rising expenditures are increasing reliance on transfers from the National Fund, which could reignite inflationary pressures if not managed prudently. The third is the depreciation of the Russian ruble. A weaker ruble boosts imports, reduces exports, and worsens Kazakhstan’s trade balance. While ACRA considers the likelihood of these risks occurring simultaneously to be low, their combined impact could seriously challenge Kazakhstan’s growth outlook. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev expects Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 6% in 2025, surpassing the $300 billion threshold for the first time.

Inflation

Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecast for 2025-2026

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has raised its inflation forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its baseline scenario, according to the regulator’s November Monetary Policy Report. The updated forecast projects inflation in the range of 12-13% in 2025 and 9.5-12.5% in 2026. The outlook for 2027 remains unchanged, with inflation expected to slow to 5.5-7.5%. In comparison, the Bank’s August report had forecast inflation at 11-12.5% for 2025 and 9.5-11.5% for 2026. The revision reflects persistent inflationary pressures, as both actual inflation and inflation expectations among households and businesses continue to exceed earlier projections. Additionally, administered prices are contributing to the increase. While their growth is expected to decelerate under the “inflation +5%” framework in 2026-2027, the cost of goods and services remains under significant pressure. The broader forecast range for 2026 highlights rising uncertainty related to the planned tax reform, its impact on aggregate demand, and expanded financing by the quasi-budgetary sector. Key risks identified by the regulator include: - rising domestic consumer demand - accelerating external inflation - sustained high inflation expectations - secondary effects from increased regulated prices, including fuel and VAT A new Tax Code is scheduled to take effect in 2026, raising the VAT rate from 12% to 16%. Additionally, utility tariff and fuel price freezes will be lifted by early Q2 2025, further contributing to inflationary pressure. The report also flags the scale of state involvement in the economy as a potential inflation driver. “A significant amount of quasi-fiscal injections could increase inflationary pressure and partially offset the effect of the upcoming fiscal consolidation of the republican budget,” the Bank stated. Despite these risks, the National Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease gradually, supported by a moderately tight monetary policy and anti-inflation measures implemented under a joint program with the government and the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market. A further stabilizing factor could be a decline in inflation among Kazakhstan’s key trading partners. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the International Monetary Fund links Kazakhstan’s high inflation to signs of economic overheating.

Economy

IMF Links High Inflation in Kazakhstan to Overheating Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has attributed rising inflation in Kazakhstan to signs of an overheated economy. In a mission conducted in early November, the IMF concluded that the country's GDP growth is exceeding its real potential, thereby fueling inflationary pressure. While economic activity remains robust, prices continue to climb. According to the IMF’s forecast, Kazakhstan’s real GDP is expected to grow by just over 6% in 2025, up from 5% in 2024. The main growth drivers are increased oil production and elevated domestic demand. The IMF estimates that inflation could reach nearly 13% by the end of the year. Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy remains expansionary. Transfers from the National Fund are a key contributor: in 2024, more than $12.1 billion was withdrawn from the fund, including $10.8 billion in direct transfers to the republican budget and $1.3 billion for the purchase of shares and bonds of Kazakhstani issuers. In 2025, the government plans to cut withdrawals from the National Fund nearly in half to $5.2 billion. However, the IMF warns that the non-oil budget deficit could still exceed 8% of GDP. Elevated demand, particularly from state-owned enterprises, has also contributed to a widening current account deficit, projected at 4% of GDP. Despite a slowdown in consumer lending and stabilization in oil production, domestic demand is expected to remain high in 2026. The IMF forecasts GDP growth at 4.5%. Over the medium term, the new Tax Code is expected to help bring inflation down to the 5% target, while GDP growth moderates to a sustainable level of around 3.5%. According to the National Statistics Bureau, year-on-year inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 12.9% in September 2025, easing slightly to 12.6% in October. Monthly inflation was reported at 0.5%. The IMF highlighted several risks that could exacerbate inflationary pressures. These include falling oil prices, slower economic growth among key trading partners, potential disruptions to crude exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), delays in infrastructure projects, and sluggish fiscal consolidation. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan continues to maintain one of the lowest levels of public debt in the world. At 24.8% of GDP, the country ranks 25th globally in terms of debt burden.

National Bank

Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Raises Base Rate to 18% Amid Surging Inflation

The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has raised the base rate to 18% per annum, with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point, in an effort to contain accelerating inflation and stabilize macroeconomic conditions. "The easing of monetary conditions amid accelerating inflation, signs of demand outpacing supply growth, and an active fiscal policy required a significant response to stabilize inflation dynamics and prevent the risk of an inflationary spiral," the central bank said in a statement. According to the National Bank, inflation in Kazakhstan is rising across all major components. Annual inflation reached 12.9% in September, surpassing expectations. Food prices remain the primary contributor (up 12.7%), while non-food inflation is also accelerating (10.8%). "Inflation expectations among the population over a 12-month horizon remain elevated and volatile, with continued uncertainty in assessments. Market professionals have revised their inflation forecasts for the year from 11.3% to 12%. External inflationary pressure remains persistent. Risks are mounting, especially from global food markets, where record price increases have been observed in categories such as meat and vegetable oils. These dynamics, coupled with active exports, are feeding into higher domestic prices," the statement noted. In response to inflation exceeding projections, the Committee opted to tighten monetary policy by raising the base rate. It also signaled that further tightening may be considered if current measures prove insufficient. Economists are raising concerns as the country enters what they describe as a "phase of expensive money." According to a recent report by the Analytical Center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), banks are hiking interest rates, margins are narrowing, and access to credit for both households and businesses is declining. After a local peak of 7.1% in the first quarter of 2025, the real interest rate dropped sharply to 3.6%. With the base rate held steady, rising inflation eroded returns on tenge-denominated assets and weakened incentives for investment. The combination of a spring rate hike and rising inflation has hit deposit rates the hardest, which are growing faster than lending rates. The spread between corporate loan and deposit rates fell from 4.1% to 3.6%, while the spread for retail products narrowed from 7.8% to 6.7%. "Banks are operating under conditions of rising funding costs. The cost of attracting funds is increasing, while returns on loans are not keeping pace. This is squeezing margins and prompting banks to adopt a more cautious lending policy," the AFK report stated. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that inflation continues to exceed official forecasts. In August, annual inflation stood at 12.2%, and it is projected to reach 14% by the end of 2025, well above the National Bank's target range of 5-6%. Economists point to Kazakhstan’s reliance on imports, including food, fuel, medicine, equipment, and consumer goods, as a key driver of inflation. Wage and pension growth have failed to keep up with rising prices.

Inflation

Experts Say Kazakhstan Must Boost Manufacturing to Tame Inflation

Inflation is steadily eroding incomes in Kazakhstan, depleting savings and undermining government efforts in the social sector. The Times of Central Asia previously noted that surging economic growth could be a contributing factor to Kazakhstan’s inflation problem. But despite rising prices, the government has no plans to apply the brakes. On the contrary, officials point to promising GDP growth driven by sectors beyond oil. Meanwhile, independent experts argue that only large-scale industrial development can provide a lasting solution to inflation. Persistent Price Pressures Inflation continues to outpace official projections. In August, annual inflation hit 12.2%, and by the end of 2025 it is expected to reach 14%, well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s target range of 5-6%. Economists say the country’s dependence on imports is a key driver. Kazakhstan imports large volumes of food, fuel, medicine, equipment, and consumer goods. Wage and pension increases are failing to keep pace with the surge in prices. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has acknowledged that high inflation poses a serious challenge, warning it is “eating away at economic growth and household incomes.” Government efforts to stabilize prices have yet to show meaningful results. On September 23, Minister of Trade and Integration Arman Shakkaliev announced that Kazakhstan will gradually phase out price controls on socially significant food products (SZPT) in favor of targeted digital support for consumers. The SZPT list currently includes 19 essential items. At the same time, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov instructed agencies to crack down on unjustified price hikes for basic goods, ordering strict enforcement of available price control tools. Growth at a Cost Inflation, according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, is being fueled by economic expansion. He warned that efforts to restrain inflation could hinder growth. “Since 2023, GDP has grown by 5%, and in 2024 we grew without the contribution of oil. This year is a turning point. From 2026, oil will no longer influence GDP growth,” Zhumangarin said. Although Kazakhstan’s economy has long relied on oil revenues, the minister believes this trend is now shifting. “Economic growth is always accompanied by high inflation,” he said. “More than $12 billion in investments have already been attracted, and the target for the year is $24 billion. The government will soon announce a new strategy for economic growth. We must follow the path of Asian countries but with modern technologies.” Call for Industrialization Independent analysts argue that real progress against inflation requires mass domestic production across a wide range of goods. Political analyst Gaziz Abishev stressed the urgency of moving beyond megaprojects toward practical, infrastructure-linked industry. “Kazakhstan needs real production, not fairy-tale megaprojects. Industry tied to infrastructure, logistics, human resources, and markets solves many issues,” he wrote. “It creates well-paid jobs, stimulates small and medium-sized businesses, reduces reliance on imports, supports the tenge, and addresses budget deficits.” Abishev also called for openness to foreign industrial investment, regardless of origin. His comments appear to push back against public concerns over the influence of Russia, China, and Western...