Inflation - The Times Of Central Asia

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import duties

Kyrgyzstan Urges EAEU to Remove Import Duties on Key Goods

Kyrgyzstan has appealed to its partners in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to eliminate import duties on a range of socially significant goods, arguing that the measure would help ease the impact of global inflation and slow domestic price growth, according to an official government statement. The proposal was presented during a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) held in Moscow on March 13. Kyrgyz officials stressed that the country’s economic conditions differ markedly from those of the bloc’s larger member states, making more flexible trade mechanisms necessary. The initiative covers goods considered critical for food security, including flour, vegetable oil, fruits and vegetables, as well as cocoa powder used in the confectionery industry. Authorities in Bishkek believe that removing import duties on these items would lower procurement costs and reduce the transmission of global price increases to the domestic market. “We are seeing rising inflation worldwide, including for the goods we import, particularly agricultural products. In effect, when we import goods at higher prices, we are also importing inflation. Eliminating duties will help reduce the cost of these products,” said Elimbek Kanybek uulu, head of the EAEU Coordination Department, at a press conference in Bishkek. The full list of goods eligible for preferential treatment, along with import volume thresholds, is expected to be published within a month after the EEC formally approves the decision. According to Kanybek uulu, Kyrgyzstan has previously sought similar temporary measures for meat imports. At that time, the suspension of duties contributed to a reduction of around 10% in the price of imported meat. Food security remains a major policy priority. President Sadyr Japarov has said that Kyrgyzstan is currently self-sufficient in six of the nine staple food items included in the national food basket. The government plans to gradually expand domestic production of the remaining products, including flour, vegetable oil, and certain types of fruit. Analysts say future food price dynamics in Kyrgyzstan will depend on both global commodity trends and decisions within the EAEU regarding trade preferences and tariff policy.

Agriculture

Kazakhstan Considers Supporting Dairy Sector to Curb Inflation

Kazakhstan’s government is considering additional support for dairy processors and bakeries as part of broader efforts to slow inflation and stabilize prices for essential food products. The proposal was discussed during a government meeting focused on inflation dynamics and price trends for socially significant food products. According to Aizhan Bizhanova, Kazakhstan’s First Vice Minister of Trade and Integration, inflation in the country has been slowing for five consecutive months, declining from 12.9% in September 2025 to 11.7% in February 2026. Food inflation has also continued to ease, falling from 13.5% in December and 12.9% in January to 12.7% in February. The ministry attributes the slowdown in part to the expansion of the list of socially significant food products subject to price regulation. The list has been expanded from 19 to 31 items, and since the beginning of the year authorities have opened more than 800 administrative cases related to violations of pricing rules. “During the first week of March, the price index for socially significant food products increased by 0.1%. At the same time, dairy products recorded price growth, mainly due to rising costs of raw milk,” the government’s press service said in a statement. Additional pressure on prices has also come from higher energy costs and increased production expenses. Dairy products account for a significant share of Kazakhstan’s food inflation, estimated at about 6.3%. The Ministry of Trade and Integration therefore proposed exploring mechanisms to support dairy processing enterprises in order to reduce production costs and stabilize prices. The government also discussed possible support measures for Kazakhstan’s bakery sector. Among the options considered were providing bakeries with discounted grain and flour and exploring the possibility of lowering railway tariffs for transporting raw materials. Officials suggested working with the national railway operator Kazakhstan Temir Zholy to reduce transportation costs for the sector. Participants at the meeting noted that prices traditionally rise in March due to seasonal factors. However, the Ministry of Trade and Integration plans to mitigate the impact through additional price discount campaigns and expanded agricultural fairs. Kazakhstan also continues to use a “green corridor” mechanism to facilitate the import of vegetables from neighboring countries. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, who chaired the meeting, instructed authorities to conduct a detailed review of pricing at 42 dairy processing enterprises operating in Kazakhstan. The aim is to identify effective mechanisms for supporting producers and stabilizing consumer prices. Officials also highlighted slow releases of vegetables from regional stabilization funds, which supply products to the market at fixed prices. The slow pace was particularly noted in the Aktobe, Zhambyl, Kyzylorda, and Ulytau regions. Zhumangarin instructed the Ministries of Agriculture and Trade to inspect regional stabilization funds and verify the actual availability of products reported by local authorities. Despite recent improvements, several international organizations expect inflation in Kazakhstan to remain elevated in 2026. S&P Global Ratings forecasts inflation will reach about 11% by the end of the year. The Eurasian Development Bank predicts inflation could fall to 9.7% by...

Parliamentary Reform

Kazakhstan Debates Parliamentary Reform as Inflation Pressures Living Standards

The Kazakh government is actively developing the framework for a future unicameral parliament, working to define its status, powers, and functions. Currently, Kazakhstan’s legislative branch consists of two chambers: the Senate and the Mazhilis. The proposed transition to a unicameral system has been positioned by authorities as a step toward democratization. However, many citizens remain unclear about the details and implications of the reform, particularly as inflation and declining living standards dominate public concern. Uncertain Details of Reform In September 2025, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed holding a nationwide referendum on transitioning to a unicameral parliament in 2027. While some analysts have speculated about a faster timeline, no official acceleration beyond 2027 has been announced. "The establishment of a parliamentary republic is not under consideration. The foundational model of a 'Strong President, Influential Parliament, Accountable Government' remains unchanged," Tokayev previously stated. According to political analyst Gaziz Abishev, pivotal developments are expected on January 20, when the National Kurultai (Assembly) convenes. He believes this meeting will outline the contours of constitutional reform and potentially signal a date for the referendum. “If the decree on holding a referendum is signed during the Kurultai, the vote could be held on March 22 [2026],” Abishev stated. Under the current system, the Senate represents regions and appointive quotas, reviewing legislation passed by the Mazhilis and serving as a constitutional buffer. Any move to unicameralism would require redefining how regional interests are represented and how legislative oversight is maintained without an upper chamber. The National Kurultai serves as a platform for dialogue between the government and society, addressing national identity, economic development, social justice, and improving the quality of life. Historically, the Kurultai was a gathering of Turkic and Mongol tribes. Over 500 Public Proposals Submitted Public discussion around the proposed unicameral parliament has been active. Since the launch of a dedicated “Parliamentary Reform” section on the state portals e-Otinish and Egov, over 500 proposals have been submitted by citizens, experts, and public organizations. Despite this engagement, tangible benefits for ordinary citizens remain vague, aside from a potential reduction in government spending. Globally, more than half of national parliaments operate as unicameral systems. According to IPU Parline, 107 out of 188 legislatures follow this model, primarily in unitary states with smaller populations. Unicameral systems are often praised for faster legislative processes, lower administrative costs, and increased transparency. Kazakhstan previously had a unicameral legislature under the 1993 Constitution. Following the invalidation of the 1994 elections, the Supreme Council was dissolved. In 1995, the country transitioned to its current bicameral system. The Senate, as the upper house, plays a stabilizing and arbitration role. Analysts caution that without a second chamber, legislative processes may be vulnerable to hasty or populist decisions. Potential for Early Elections Abishev suggests that a referendum in March 2026 could prompt an early electoral cycle. "Under the current schedule, the next Mazhilis elections are set for January 2028. However, they could be moved up to summer 2026 if Parliament adopts a constitutional amendment package in April...

Economic Growth

ACRA Raises Kazakhstan Economic Growth Forecast

The Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) has released its updated forecast for Kazakhstan’s economy for 2026-2028, projecting annual growth of 5.3-5.9%. These figures exceed the government’s recent targets. According to the published report, the next three years will mark a period of accelerated expansion, driven by industry and construction, alongside strengthening value chains in services and agribusiness. The government's earlier forecast projected GDP growth of 5.4% in 2026, followed by stabilization at 5.3%. While ACRA offers a more optimistic outlook, it notes that achieving the targeted 6% growth will require a sharp increase in investment activity and a boost in foreign exchange earnings from exports. The agency also warns that accelerating growth may carry the risk of economic overheating and a new wave of inflation. Investment remains the weak link in Kazakhstan’s growth model. From 2021 to 2025, investment accounted for only 15% of GDP, significantly lower than in comparable economies and previous periods of rapid expansion. For example, during 2010-2014, investment levels held at 18%, and in earlier years, they reached as high as 20-22%. Without restoring higher investment levels, sustaining growth above 5.5% could prove difficult. Inflation risks also remain elevated. Contributing factors include household inflation expectations, imported inflation from neighboring countries, accelerated lending, and rising global food prices. Nevertheless, ACRA forecasts inflation to decline from 11.8% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, 6.2% in 2027, and 5.1% in 2028. The tenge is expected to gradually weaken to 555 per $ in 2026, 574 in 2027, and 594 in 2028. ACRA highlights three major risks over the next three years. The first is export and logistics vulnerabilities. Kazakhstan’s primary oil export route continues to run through Novorossiysk, and any disruption along this corridor would quickly impact the current account and put downward pressure on the tenge. The second risk concerns fiscal discipline. Rising expenditures are increasing reliance on transfers from the National Fund, which could reignite inflationary pressures if not managed prudently. The third is the depreciation of the Russian ruble. A weaker ruble boosts imports, reduces exports, and worsens Kazakhstan’s trade balance. While ACRA considers the likelihood of these risks occurring simultaneously to be low, their combined impact could seriously challenge Kazakhstan’s growth outlook. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev expects Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 6% in 2025, surpassing the $300 billion threshold for the first time.

Inflation

Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecast for 2025-2026

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has raised its inflation forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its baseline scenario, according to the regulator’s November Monetary Policy Report. The updated forecast projects inflation in the range of 12-13% in 2025 and 9.5-12.5% in 2026. The outlook for 2027 remains unchanged, with inflation expected to slow to 5.5-7.5%. In comparison, the Bank’s August report had forecast inflation at 11-12.5% for 2025 and 9.5-11.5% for 2026. The revision reflects persistent inflationary pressures, as both actual inflation and inflation expectations among households and businesses continue to exceed earlier projections. Additionally, administered prices are contributing to the increase. While their growth is expected to decelerate under the “inflation +5%” framework in 2026-2027, the cost of goods and services remains under significant pressure. The broader forecast range for 2026 highlights rising uncertainty related to the planned tax reform, its impact on aggregate demand, and expanded financing by the quasi-budgetary sector. Key risks identified by the regulator include: - rising domestic consumer demand - accelerating external inflation - sustained high inflation expectations - secondary effects from increased regulated prices, including fuel and VAT A new Tax Code is scheduled to take effect in 2026, raising the VAT rate from 12% to 16%. Additionally, utility tariff and fuel price freezes will be lifted by early Q2 2025, further contributing to inflationary pressure. The report also flags the scale of state involvement in the economy as a potential inflation driver. “A significant amount of quasi-fiscal injections could increase inflationary pressure and partially offset the effect of the upcoming fiscal consolidation of the republican budget,” the Bank stated. Despite these risks, the National Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease gradually, supported by a moderately tight monetary policy and anti-inflation measures implemented under a joint program with the government and the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market. A further stabilizing factor could be a decline in inflation among Kazakhstan’s key trading partners. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the International Monetary Fund links Kazakhstan’s high inflation to signs of economic overheating.

Economy

IMF Links High Inflation in Kazakhstan to Overheating Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has attributed rising inflation in Kazakhstan to signs of an overheated economy. In a mission conducted in early November, the IMF concluded that the country's GDP growth is exceeding its real potential, thereby fueling inflationary pressure. While economic activity remains robust, prices continue to climb. According to the IMF’s forecast, Kazakhstan’s real GDP is expected to grow by just over 6% in 2025, up from 5% in 2024. The main growth drivers are increased oil production and elevated domestic demand. The IMF estimates that inflation could reach nearly 13% by the end of the year. Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy remains expansionary. Transfers from the National Fund are a key contributor: in 2024, more than $12.1 billion was withdrawn from the fund, including $10.8 billion in direct transfers to the republican budget and $1.3 billion for the purchase of shares and bonds of Kazakhstani issuers. In 2025, the government plans to cut withdrawals from the National Fund nearly in half to $5.2 billion. However, the IMF warns that the non-oil budget deficit could still exceed 8% of GDP. Elevated demand, particularly from state-owned enterprises, has also contributed to a widening current account deficit, projected at 4% of GDP. Despite a slowdown in consumer lending and stabilization in oil production, domestic demand is expected to remain high in 2026. The IMF forecasts GDP growth at 4.5%. Over the medium term, the new Tax Code is expected to help bring inflation down to the 5% target, while GDP growth moderates to a sustainable level of around 3.5%. According to the National Statistics Bureau, year-on-year inflation in Kazakhstan stood at 12.9% in September 2025, easing slightly to 12.6% in October. Monthly inflation was reported at 0.5%. The IMF highlighted several risks that could exacerbate inflationary pressures. These include falling oil prices, slower economic growth among key trading partners, potential disruptions to crude exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), delays in infrastructure projects, and sluggish fiscal consolidation. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan continues to maintain one of the lowest levels of public debt in the world. At 24.8% of GDP, the country ranks 25th globally in terms of debt burden.